A Few Thoughts On Mavs 107, Hawks 111

[dmavs4life03]

Mavs were not getting consistent offense out of that look and gave up ridiculously easy baskets on the other end.

BINGO.

This. This and so much this. I think rick overthinks too much sometimes thats my only excuse for him. He tries too much experimenting even of lineups that should clearly never go together for long. 


Also the secret is out that in the 4th quarter teams play tight on the perimeter against us because even when a player gets in the paint, they are probably gonna try to kick it out for a 3 and get it picked off. MIX IT UP! And this is both when we have Luka/KP or when they rest.

Lastly
JJ is a SG. SF even is a stretch. He should never find himself playing PF or C.
DFS is a SG/SF. PF for him is a stretch and he should never be playing defense on 5s
Delon/Curry should never be SF

To get the best yield from our players, we need to play our 5s for rebounding/screen setting/paint defense and paint touches. They should be flanked by a SG,SF,PF,and PG. None of our guards are elite enough ball handlers

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

mavsluver:  " I hesitate to say this, because I think the players on the court did fight hard, but on a bigger organizational level, I think the Mavs more or less phoned this winnable match in, for reasons that must have made sense to them."


What seemed so incongruous, is that a day or so after Coach Rick alerted the players, including the two stars, to keep a watchful eye on "the standings" and the possibility of moving up to enhance a playoff run, Carlisle all but forfeits a winnable game.


WAB

I don't think that it was unwise to sit either Luka or KP if there are legitimate health concerns there. Without those two guys, nothing much matters. Nor do I think RC thought that the rotation he was playing would lose them the game. And that, that right there, is the problem. He doesn't see what nearly all Mavs fans who don't have his experience, accumulated knowledge, and acumen can see right in front of their faces. Cue Fif to come in to tell us how dumb we are to second-guess a HOF coach.

It must be amazing to be 14 years old for your entire life.

[fifteenth]

(in case granted) Because despite all of our whining we still didn't manage to win. 

Just remember how majority of Mavs fans reacted to Houston complaint couple of months ago. Imagine Houston would get their wish and still lose. Oh boy, how much fun would we have.

There is no shame in trying to win and there is no shame in losing.

I remember all the news reports and documentaries about the Miracle on Ice where there was so much shame heaped on the Soviet team by their country. Lots of shame language used by anyone from the USSR who was interviewed. I remember feeling sad that there was a country that operated with that mindset.

I'm not going to judge the Mavs by using the juvenile nature of NBA twitter as my guide.

This post may not make sense to you. I'm realizing more and more that I'm from another planet than what is becoming the current culture of the internet.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I've come to the conclusion the Mav's are treating this season like they are playing with house money.  They are way ahead of their own projections and won't be rushed.  This season they are operating a teaching hospital with hopes the lessons learned will pay off down the road.  Getting robbed by the ref's gets old.  But so does the over-the-top hand wringing that awaits any decision that doesn't correspond to our collective and individually superior basketball opinions.  If the team really cared about winning in Atlanta, they would have made some different decisions about who to play and who to sit.  That doesn't excuse the refs, but this is a game they win by double digits if they play just one of their stars.

In the final analysis, say six months from now, does it really matter if they win 47 games or 52 games?  Does it really matter if they win 1, 2 or 3 games in their first round playoff series?  Not really.  They've reset their trajectory and now its time to build around what they have.  Who are the keepers.  Who are the culls.  What kind of players need to be added and how.  What on-court combinations work.  Those are the things that really matter.  Continued .500 ball from here gets them to 47 or 48 wins.  That will get them the 7th seed in the west and the 18th or 19th pick.  Any single loss isn't going to change that.  Relax and enjoy the ride.  Beating some .500 team from the east by 20 doesn't make us a championship contender and losing to some horrible team from the east doesn't make us a lottery team.  We are what we are and that won't change without further growth from our stars and a couple of good personnel moves beyond the stars.

[JamesConway]

Said it months ago: as long as we make the playoffs some unpleasant losses here & there might actually be a good thing for us.

- keeps us honest about the roster
- a pick closer to #15 than #24 would be a good thing for our future roster setup. We can use any type of asset right now after we traded away multiple 1sts for Luka and KP. This roster is not a finished product by any means.
- we need to be cautious with Luka and KP. Especially the latter brings significant durability concerns along with him and after the knee soreness-scare a while ago we're better off playing it safe. He's showing great progress, things are going about as good as anybody could have hoped with him.

Big picture-wise this team is still perfoming better than expected. Feels like an eternity since the last time we've had fewer than 8 more Ws compared to Ls.

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1231798366968918016

[mavsluvr]

I've come to the conclusion the Mav's are treating this season like they are playing with house money.  They are way ahead of their own projections and won't be rushed.  This season they are operating a teaching hospital with hopes the lessons learned will pay off down the road.  Getting robbed by the ref's gets old.  But so does the over-the-top hand wringing that awaits any decision that doesn't correspond to our collective and individually superior basketball opinions.  If the team really cared about winning in Atlanta, they would have made some different decisions about who to play and who to sit.  That doesn't excuse the refs, but this is a game they win by double digits if they play just one of their stars.

In the final analysis, say six months from now, does it really matter if they win 47 games or 52 games?  Does it really matter if they win 1, 2 or 3 games in their first round playoff series?  Not really.  They've reset their trajectory and now its time to build around what they have.  Who are the keepers.  Who are the culls.  What kind of players need to be added and how.  What on-court combinations work.  Those are the things that really matter.  Continued .500 ball from here gets them to 47 or 48 wins.  That will get them the 7th seed in the west and the 18th or 19th pick.  Any single loss isn't going to change that.  Relax and enjoy the ride.  Beating some .500 team from the east by 20 doesn't make us a championship contender and losing to some horrible team from the east doesn't make us a lottery team.  We are what we are and that won't change without further growth from our stars and a couple of good personnel moves beyond the stars.

Dan's post is a great assessment of the Mavericks' overall strategic plan for this season. The method behind the madness, if you will. 

Fans who think the team should be in win-now mode will disagree with the strategy, and a case could be made for that point of view. However, there is still value in understanding what the organization's goals actually are. 

For example, this should be helpful to fans baffled by the FO's support of Carlisle, who they feel is obviously not making the best decisions to win as many games as possible. Rightly or wrongly, that is not the mission the organization has assigned to him. He has been tasked with honing and polishing this team for the long haul -- developing the squad. He would make different decisions if the overall strategy were to win now. Guys who are not part of the team's long-term future will only get situational minutes, even if they would play better at the moment than the guys on the floor. Carlisle intimated as much when he was explaining why Barea doesn't play many minutes, emphasizing that Rick HAS (his own accentuation) to play the young guards. 

Carlisle makes mistakes, as any coach does, and I'm not saying otherwise. He experiments, and not all of his ideas pan out. Some may not like his systems, or his style. But the front office supports him because he is doing what the organization wants him to do. When we examine the individual improvement of guys like Maxi, DFS, and KP, and the improvement in overall chemistry, it is hard to argue with the remarkable squad development. A similar analysis could be made of Donnie, who had a reason based on overall priorities for not giving up the team's young assets and future picks for an aged veteran who could have helped for the remainder of this season. 

Someone could legitimately disagree with the strategy, or with the tactics of Donnie/Carlisle. But we can't raise our level of understanding if we are all stuck in overly simplified analysis assessing all decisions that don't maximize short-term results as automatically stupid. Context matters. What the franchise is trying to accomplish in the big picture is important in evaluating their day-to-day efforts. Don't get me wrong, they may (and probably will, it being sports) still commit blunders. Knee-jerking can be fun, but our understanding will be much richer when we are able to appreciate the many nuances involved. 

Tl; dr    Fans who assign blame for the team's deficiencies to Carlisle, or to Donnie, may have a more complete picture if they take a look at the overall organizational plan. Neither the coach nor the GM makes decisions in a vacuum. Dan's post is a good explanation of the overall team priorities.

[Reunion Mav Old]

I've come to the conclusion the Mav's are treating this season like they are playing with house money.  They are way ahead of their own projections and won't be rushed.  This season they are operating a teaching hospital with hopes the lessons learned will pay off down the road.  Getting robbed by the ref's gets old.  But so does the over-the-top hand wringing that awaits any decision that doesn't correspond to our collective and individually superior basketball opinions.  If the team really cared about winning in Atlanta, they would have made some different decisions about who to play and who to sit.  That doesn't excuse the refs, but this is a game they win by double digits if they play just one of their stars.

In the final analysis, say six months from now, does it really matter if they win 47 games or 52 games?  Does it really matter if they win 1, 2 or 3 games in their first round playoff series?  Not really.  They've reset their trajectory and now its time to build around what they have.  Who are the keepers.  Who are the culls.  What kind of players need to be added and how.  What on-court combinations work.  Those are the things that really matter.  Continued .500 ball from here gets them to 47 or 48 wins.  That will get them the 7th seed in the west and the 18th or 19th pick.  Any single loss isn't going to change that.  Relax and enjoy the ride.  Beating some .500 team from the east by 20 doesn't make us a championship contender and losing to some horrible team from the east doesn't make us a lottery team.  We are what we are and that won't change without further growth from our stars and a couple of good personnel moves beyond the stars.

Dan's post is a great assessment of the Mavericks' overall strategic plan for this season. The method behind the madness, if you will. 

Fans who think the team should be in win-now mode will disagree with the strategy, and a case could be made for that point of view. However, there is still value in understanding what the organization's goals actually are. 

For example, this should be helpful to fans baffled by the FO's support of Carlisle, who they feel is obviously not making the best decisions to win as many games as possible. Rightly or wrongly, that is not the mission the organization has assigned to him. He has been tasked with honing and polishing this team for the long haul -- developing the squad. He would make different decisions if the overall strategy were to win now. Guys who are not part of the team's long-term future will only get situational minutes, even if they would play better at the moment than the guys on the floor. Carlisle intimated as much when he was explaining why Barea doesn't play many minutes, emphasizing that Rick HAS (his own accentuation) to play the young guards. 

Carlisle makes mistakes, as any coach does, and I'm not saying otherwise. He experiments, and not all of his ideas pan out. Some may not like his systems, or his style. But the front office supports him because he is doing what the organization wants him to do. When we examine the individual improvement of guys like Maxi, DFS, and KP, and the improvement in overall chemistry, it is hard to argue with the remarkable squad development. A similar analysis could be made of Donnie, who had a reason based on overall priorities for not giving up the team's young assets and future picks for an aged veteran who could have helped for the remainder of this season. 

Someone could legitimately disagree with the strategy, or with the tactics of Donnie/Carlisle. But we can't raise our level of understanding if we are all stuck in overly simplified analysis assessing all decisions that don't maximize short-term results as automatically stupid. Context matters. What the franchise is trying to accomplish in the big picture is important in evaluating their day-to-day efforts. Don't get me wrong, they may (and probably will, it being sports) still commit blunders. Knee-jerking can be fun, but our understanding will be much richer when we are able to appreciate the many nuances involved. 

Tl; dr    Fans who assign blame for the team's deficiencies to Carlisle, or to Donnie, may have a more complete picture if they take a look at the overall organizational plan. Neither the coach nor the GM makes decisions in a vacuum. Dan's post is a good explanation of the overall team priorities.

Thank you guys for providing some really good thinking. I too can get upset and disagree at times. Sometimes I even get down on a Mavs player. Thought: I hope we somehow win a first round playoff because I would love to see this team in Rick Carlisle all out win mode which we will absolutely be in the playoffs, with the one exception of long term health of one of our stars.

[mavsluvr]

I don’t agree that Boban cannot be a 12 mppg player

Agreed, he could be. But it's unlikely, unless other player absences require it. And that may not have a lot to do with whether Boban can help the team on the court or not. 


They are trying to develop a group that they hope can contend for a title. I suggest that the Mavs view their window as realistically opening in the 21-22 season. They have likely already determined that Boban will not be a part of that. So, other players who might be part of that group have priority in terms of getting on the court. 

Bobi will still play situationally. And maybe this particular game should have been one of those. But part of the regular rotation? I don't see it.

[fifteenth]

This isn't a completely new discussion. We've been saying that they want the young guys to learn how to do it since these 4th quarter struggles started. The absence of JJB in closing situations has been one of the most obvious pieces of evidence that this is the case.

[mavsluvr]

This isn't a completely new discussion.  We've been saying that they want the young guys to learn how to do it since these 4th quarter struggles started. The absence of JJB in closing situations has been one of the most obvious pieces of evidence that this is the case.

Agreed. 

It is interesting to continue to assess the situation as the season transpires. As someone pointed out, Rick has made an effort to motivate the players (and possibly appease the fans) by encouraging the squad to climb as high in the standings as they can. But in terms of whether that is truly the organizational priority, sitting both Luka and KP for this game tells us all we need to know.

[mavsluvr]

I'm realizing more and more that I'm from another planet than what is becoming the current culture of the internet.

Hang in there, fif. We need your lone voice howling in the wilderness.

[Benskix2]

Right or wrong people's expectations changed with the fast start and Luka playing like the MVP.  Conventional wisdom is that if you have home court and the best player in a series you're going to win, so goals shifted in some peoples minds from make the playoffs to get HCA and make it to the conference finals and then with a little luck and Luka magic we win the first of 12 championships in a row.  It seem unreasonable when you type it out, but winning is intoxicating, mavs fans had no tolerance built up to it at the beginning of the year, and drunk people believe unreasonable things.  So the reason people freak out over every loss is because in their minds a championship is at stake and with every loss it slips a little further out of reach.

I applaud the Mavs for sticking to the long approach and not giving into euphoria to try and pry a window open when the paint on the trim is still drying.

[Hypermav]

Right or wrong people's expectations changed with the fast start and Luka playing like the MVP.  Conventional wisdom is that if you have home court and the best player in a series you're going to win, so goals shifted in some peoples minds from make the playoffs to get HCA and make it to the conference finals and then with a little luck and Luka magic we win the first of 12 championships in a row.  It seem unreasonable when you type it out, but winning is intoxicating, mavs fans had no tolerance built up to it at the beginning of the year, and drunk people believe unreasonable things.  So the reason people freak out over every loss is because in their minds a championship is at stake and with every loss it slips a little further out of reach.

I applaud the Mavs for sticking to the long approach and not giving into euphoria to try and pry a window open when the paint on the trim is still drying.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFDcoX7s6rE

[Scott41theMavs]

Re: Dan and Mavsluvr's "long view" takes: The long view, or at least the medium view, has everything to do with what players who aren't here now are here next year and the year after. I personally believe that will hinge lots on what FAs believe about the Mavs' readiness to win. If everything is predicated on a "Giannis saves all butts" strategy, much as Howard was supposed to be our superman coming to the rescue in 2012 and 2013, then all of us ought to brace for asymptotically certain disappointment. However, if the Mavs see the future in terms of Luka + KP + whomever else they can realistically add to the core + whatever peripheral core pieces we still have in a year or two, then they ought to be selling FAs on their ability to win, the present-day ability of Luka and KP, and the franchise's present-day belief in Luka and KP (not to mention the acceptability of the coach), and that means winning games like the Hawks game by avoiding stubbornly erroneous rotation choices. Moreover, considering how Luka et al. have exceeded expectations, this has become a year in which probably getting curb stomped or even relatively curb stomped by the Lakers or Clippers is much less preferable than possibly actually winning a series against the Nuggets, Jazz, or Rockets. The latter sets the table far better for the future in all aspects.

[ItsGoTime]

Fans who think the team should be in win-now mode will disagree with the strategy, and a case could be made for that point of view.

What about the fans that could care less about “winning now” and want upgrades to how the team is built for now and in the future? Also not putting all eggs in 1 basket as the FO seems to be doing with the 2021 strategy.

We all saw lots of opportunity in the offseason that was kinda pissed away. 

We saw lots of movement at the TDL when there was reportedly not supposed to be much.

There was plenty of rumors and subsequently reports of even more movement at the trade deadline where we had some assets we could have used, but nothing materialized. We’re those cases of we didn’t have enough, or were we too enamored with players other teams wanted in a deal (besides KP and Luka)?

There were also plenty of rumors of the availability of lots more players. Same as above, were those options explored and if they were, did the negotiations go all that far based on the love for our boys in blue?

So it is impossible to even have any level of certainty one way or the other about the answers to those questions above. What we do know is that there was TONS of opportunity between the offseason through the TDL and we came away with Curry, Boban, Wright, WCS, MKG and a bunch of excuses. 

We did also get KP, Super Glue, DFS and JJB during that time as some would point out, so I might as well, but those players certainly deserve to be in a separate sentence and paragraph than the others for reasons I shouldn’t have to explain.

To me, there is too much smoke viewed in that direction for there to not be fire. If there was some fire, I don’t see a reason to sugar coat it and let the responsible parties off the hook by diverting the conversation to what our perception of their plan is. 

Sure it’s fun to speculate on what we think their plan is, I just don’t think that has anything to do with our speculation on how things have been perceived to be handled during these recent events. One could say they correlate to one another, there is just too many assumptions and leaps to take going down both roads at the same time.

Finally, better players are better.

[Benskix2]

I suspect that the "lots of opportunity" and "plenty of rumors" was mostly just bullshit that Mike Fisher made up to sell insider subs.

[Scott41theMavs]

I suspect that the "lots of opportunity" and "plenty of rumors" was mostly just bullshit that Mike Fisher made up to sell insider subs.

True, but the TPE and Lee expiring contract had value as trade tools and the Mavs did not make good use of them. They should have been able to at least add some contract trade fodder for this summer.

[dmavs4life03]

Beware Long Response

We should be able to realize that we dont have a klay/draymond/iggy or Butler/adebayo/crowder type wings (other than maxi) that can compensate for not playing a 5 defensively and for rebounds; let alone the fact that we can use screen and rolls to get better open jumpshots in various ways if tried. Just looking at other teams in the west and their size/defensive advantage vs our mini lineups.... 

lakers- bron/green/AD/DH/ref help occasionally
clippers- Kawhi/PG/ Harell/Beverly/ Zubac/ Morris/ ref help
jazz- Gobert/ Bogdonovic/Conley/ Harris
okc- Adams/ CP3/Gallo/ SGA
grizz- JV/ JJJ/Morant, 

then you have the "probably pretender" rockets who even have bigger small ball size - PJ tucker, Covington, Westbrook, Jim flopper Harden, Gordon, Jeff green

and then us often only playing maxi/kp as our only size with DFS, THJ, Delon, Curry/Brunson, in over their heads defending players bigger than them by far. MKG should be able to help some with this, but you tell me Boban, WCS cant each play 15 mins a night without KP or even with him so we can control the parts of the game that matter in the playoffs (effort/energy and size to grind out games when shots aren't falling) Also, this would help the "historic offense" more with better screens/ mixed offensive possessions and a floor that is more spaced. 


And yes I know 3s can space the floor but imagine if we took some of the 50% chance shots for 3 points and put up some 75% chance 2 point shots, WE dictate the game and force doubles and get more 3s that are the ones where defense is scrambling and the shooter often catches and is feet set ready to fire. 

It seems late in games and for spells during the game in general, we get caught by the defense because they know we are just trying to create 3pt opportunities. As a result those better coached bigger players gamble on playing tight perimeter defense knowing that even if someone drives by, chances are they are looking to pass and wont say; take a screen and pop for midrange or a drop off to a big in the paint. Its what i call rocketball and it sucks to watch imo. 

To me its no wonder when the 3s aren't falling we have no way to mix and generate offense and we give up size on defense. This more than anything helps contribute to our dry spells and let teams comeback late or straight blitz us out of the gate. Even out east "small ball teams" play bigger players than ours and dont chuck half as many 3s. 

Siamkam, OG anoby,gasol/ibaka/ and bigger guards,  
Giannis/middleton/lopez, 
Smart/Hayward/Brown/Tatum/Theis, 
Adebayo,Butler, Crowder, Iggy, 
Myers lenard, Sabonis/Turner, 

It seems to me we are lucky both GS and POR are having bad years never mind SAS. We need to maximise the big guys we have since we dont have enough wings to compete with other teams "small ball". 

To me looking at our best playoff teams we had legit big men and a good mix of wings/guards. And the guys knew when to shoot a 3 and when to go inside. 

2014 Dirk, VC, Crowder, Matrix, Dalembert,  Blair, Calderon and Monta. 

2011 TC,Haywood,Mahimi,Kidd,Matrix,Stevenson,Brewer,Barea, GodMode Dirk and JET. honorable mention Buter/Peja/Cardinal for a hard foul or two

2006 Diop/Dampier, JHo, Stackhouse, JET, Harris, Daniels, Dirk. 

2003 A Dirk injury and supernova Kerr away from the finals. 


Even if they (our bigs besides KP) foul out, whatever but no reason we cant dictate the matchups sometimes... thats what good teams are supposed to do. Also it will enable us to hang close in a game we should have no business in with maybe a prayer to steal it at the end or just straight up grind teams down and add some transition opportunities to our "historic offense" and build leads faster.

So to end, our PGs need to play at PG only especially if we are not playing a 5 to help tie everything together. 
No JJ at 4. Actually maybe its time to cut his time entirely. Less DFS at 4.
No Delon/Curry at 3. DFS, Hardaway, Lee, MKG and Maxi can cover just fine. Not order specific
Limit time that Brunson/JJB/Delon play at positions other than PG. 

Just a thought.... or 6