Trade & FA 2023-24: Booker Likes NYK? Vogel Out? Suns Imploding?

[mvossman]

I think they're expecting some sort of SnT at the best.

Obviously it's a long shot and the agents are trying to drum up interest. One has to wonder Klay next to Kyrie and Luka. Even in his worst year of his career he still shot 39% from 3 and averaged 18ppg.

He's not the same guy anymore. But as a 3rd option next to Kyrie and Luka where almost 80% of his shots will be spot up wide open 3s I'm not sure you could find a better fit. 

Defensively he's not the same guy. But if he can bring 15ppg consistently then it doesn't really matter all that much. He still has size and can move his feet. Plus the Warriors can technically be way way below the 1st apron which would make a SnT of THJ+ Green doable. Would also allow us to retain DJJ

The quote referenced "market forces out of their control".  That could only be free agency.  Mavs can't force an S&T. 

If we are sending those two out, I would rather do it for a POA starter than a Timmy replacement.  I think Exum (and maybe some hardy) is the Timmy replacement next season.  Not to mention Klay is on a steep decline and I'm not sure what we would get of value in his last years in the league.

[Mavs2021]

@statdefender
Worst Open (4-6 Feet) 3-Point Shooters In The League This Season (Min. 50 Games Played & Min. 3 3PA Per Game) :
                     
1.  Tim Hardaway Jr.  —  31.7% 
2.  Kyle Kuzma  —  32.5%
3.  Terry Rozier  —  34.9%
4.  Damian Lillard  —  35.0%
5.  Dejounte Murray  —  35.1%
6.  Anthony Edwards  —  35.4%
7.  Fred VanVleet  —  35.6%
8.  De’Aaron Fox  —  36.2%
9.  Max Strus  —  36.3%
10.  Tyrese Maxey  —  36.9%
11.  Kyrie Irving  —  37.0%
12.  Trey Murphy III  —  37.1%

Which Player In The League Would You Trust The Least To Hit An Open Shot To Win The Game?

Well THJ shoots 39% from the corners, only Kyrie and Exum are better on signficant attempts. I´m thinking we should just look for a pure shooter. We need to find a Dick/Allen/Robinson. They are shooting around 50% on corner threes, while guys like PJ, Lawson, Kleber, Doncic shoot around 25%. Jones and Hardy are not that great around 33-34% either. If we give up THJ in a trade, we better make sure to fill that shooting hole. I think the Clippers will leave the corners open.

[F Gump]

Depends on contracts but say the Mavs package THJ+Green for Klay and Klay's starting number is at 20 million. That 9 mil extra should be enough to give the Mavs an 8-10 mil MLE to throw at DJJ. 

Mavs would be over the 1st apron but their roster is largely set till 2026.

Just a reminder that the max spread would be 7.5M (as long as GS stays under Apron 1), which lowers the possible money to DJJ (in that scenario, the MLE limit ends up around 8M or so, I think - I don't have time to work the details to the exact number) and raises it for Klay (to about 21.5M).

I am more bothered by the 21.5M. And not sure but what, as bad as THJ is, that the package of Green-THJ would be quite an overpay for what Klay has become.

I'd be more favorable to THJ-for Klay at about similar salaries, and then try to sign DJJ for a year at 5.2M. Or use Green in a different trade to try to land a future pick and get some salary reduction. Or the THJ-Caruso pursuit. Or things like that, where the salaries are more favorable.

[mvossman]

@statdefender
Worst Open (4-6 Feet) 3-Point Shooters In The League This Season (Min. 50 Games Played & Min. 3 3PA Per Game) :
                     
1.  Tim Hardaway Jr.  —  31.7% 
2.  Kyle Kuzma  —  32.5%
3.  Terry Rozier  —  34.9%
4.  Damian Lillard  —  35.0%
5.  Dejounte Murray  —  35.1%
6.  Anthony Edwards  —  35.4%
7.  Fred VanVleet  —  35.6%
8.  De’Aaron Fox  —  36.2%
9.  Max Strus  —  36.3%
10.  Tyrese Maxey  —  36.9%
11.  Kyrie Irving  —  37.0%
12.  Trey Murphy III  —  37.1%

Which Player In The League Would You Trust The Least To Hit An Open Shot To Win The Game?

A strange stat to focus on.  Why not wide open (what most of our shooters generally take) or tight (perhaps more likely on a game winning shot?)?  Timmy shot over 42% on wide open shots and slighter better on tight shots than "open" shots.  I would much rather see a stat that shows 3 point percentage adjusted for difficulty.  Even just looking at percent and volume would be more valuable.

[DallasMaverick]

@TheAthletic
Key Warriors stakeholders have been optimistic Klay Thompson will re-sign with Golden State.

But there are market forces outside of their control.

Namely? The Magic and Mavericks, sources tell
@sam_amick
.

Klay’s agent is trying to create a market for his client.

No way Dallas is interested.

[F Gump]

Klay’s agent is trying to create a market for his client.

No way Dallas is interested.

We can't assume that's true, with Cuban still in charge. Sounds like the exact sort of player - big name, overpaid, past his prime --  that Cuban would chase and overpay for.

[Scott41theMavs]

We can't assume that's true, with Cuban still in charge. Sounds like the exact sort of player - big name, overpaid, past his prime --  that Cuban would chase and overpay for.

DallasMaverick has spoken. 

(I have my suspicions on who he is.)

[mvossman]

We can't assume that's true, with Cuban still in charge. Sounds like the exact sort of player - big name, overpaid, past his prime --  that Cuban would chase and overpay for.

In the past I would have agreed with this sentiment, but I am encouraged by this last offseason (and TDL) where all of the focus seemed to be on younger players.

[soog]

I’m sorry, but I want no part of Klay. He has looked absolutely terrible this season. He is a step slow on defense after his surgeries, he has zero confidence shooting, and this has translated to G-Will type mental mistakes being made during the game.

[SwisherPrice]

Klay can still a useful NBA player and shooter. As a Top-3 option on an offense and at that price...no. But if he was willing to accept a lesser role and lower salary then he'd be fine. I've seen the comparisons to THJ but I don't think people realize how bad THJ has been, especially past the All Star Break.

Post ASB:
THJ: 36% FG and 31% on threes
Klay: 45% FG and 41% on threes

[youzigizag]

Klay can still a useful NBA player and shooter. As a Top-3 option on an offense and at that price...no. But if he was willing to accept a lesser role and lower salary then he'd be fine. I've seen the comparisons to THJ but I don't think people realize how bad THJ has been, especially past the All Star Break.

Post ASB:
THJ: 36% FG and 31% on threes
Klay: 45% FG and 41% on threes

Would be interesting to see an impact simulation of THJ and Klay on different teams.

I think I am taking THJ.

[F Gump]

After looking further, I see that even after waiving CP3, GS will have to consider Apron 1 (hard cap) limits ($179M) in many scenarios. 

In the scenario of SNT trade KT for THJ/Green (tot $29M), that hard caps them and puts them close to their hard cap, after they fill 3 more slots (@$2.1M each) to get to the minimum of 14 players, with just a bit of a cushion left. But no room for a 15th player for the whole year, unless it's a rookie 2nd rounder, but they can do 10-day deals and eventually a rest-of-season deal. No space for any MLE.
 
Without a SNT they have more flexibility, as they have no hard cap and their effective limit then jumps to about $190M (Apron 2), which leaves room for a 15th player, and the room to use the TxP MLE of about 5.2M.

I think there's no way they pay KT the $43M he made this past season, but they might be able to justify some lower number that still gives them the opportunity to use the MLE and slot 15 while keeping the gang together. That could even be as high as 32-33M, although I don't think he's worth that, but perhaps they do.

[omahen]

First a disclaimer. Not really interested in Klay unless it something like MLE. Not willing to pay any assets for him.

Just a technicallity. SnT puzzle is easily solved if THJ is going to a third team. Not that difficult to find a taker for expiring salary.

[F Gump]

SnT puzzle is easily solved if THJ is going to a third team. Not that difficult to find a taker for expiring salary.

I don't think the KT thing is going anywhere anyhow. 

But if KT stays in GS, and the Mavs can't find the right swap using THJ, should they just give him away to someone, like you assert would be easy? Doing so would open that bigger MLE which then can give them opportunity to pay DJJ a bigger number, and it would also open up minutes in the rotation, and it would also make the Mavs payroll situation more flexible.

[omahen]

I don't think the KT thing is going anywhere anyhow. 

But if KT stays in GS, and the Mavs can't find the right swap using THJ, should they just give him away to someone, like you assert would be easy? Doing so would open that bigger MLE which then can give them opportunity to pay DJJ a bigger number, and it would also open up minutes in the rotation, and it would also make the Mavs payroll situation more flexible.

Interesting thought and probably a very complex decision. Many things to take into account. First of all of everything of course depends how well Mavs do in the playoffs. If they are great, not much need to improve and this kind of scenario makes a lot of sense. However, if serious weaknesses would be exposed, situation is much different. Also, playoff performance will determine if DJJ is really worth more than tax MLE. 

But lets assume some holes are exposed in the playoffs in a sense, that Mavs need to further improve to become a serious contender. In that case I believe that if we are looking for an upgrade at the spot currently occupied by DJJ, it wouldn't be that much important to keep him. It would be nice to have him, but I wouldn't go for more than tax MLE. Exum is ideal as the back-up at the position. I don't think we need to invest in THJ replacement. In ideal world we need a two way guy at the position. New guy and Exum will likely take most of the available minutes. 

Staying on lower salaries gives us a bit more flexibility regarding SnT possibilities or taking more salary back in a trade. On the other hand, THJ contract is ideal to use in a trade. If we lose that option, any other trade would mean involving probably more than one of our core contracts to construct a meaningful trade. 

To summarize my thoughts. If we are mostly looking to run it back, I would be open to just "dump" THJ to get more flexibility for the future when Exum and rookies will need higher salaries. However, if we are looking to upgrade the position, than I would prefer to look for a trade using THJ contract (and whatever assets needed).

Edit: "dumping" THJ to a cap space team would likely require an asset fee. It doesn't seem like he has much of a value around the league and teams with cap space are usually selling that cap space. So this is a move I only use when needed to get the one right player. Perhaps, playoffs will show, that right player is DJJ. Perhaps it is a trade for someone where his team doesn't want salary back. I am not convinced Klay is that right player.

[SleepingHero]

@loganmmurdock @ringer

“League sources believe Andrew Wiggins will be included in trade talks this summer as the Warriors look to improve their roster. Wiggins missed an extended period last spring to tend to a personal matter, and this season, during training camp, coaches privately expressed disappointment in his conditioning, which was compounded by a dismal start to the season. “I feel like I came into camp all right,” Wiggins said in February when I asked about his slow start. “I feel like I wasn’t out of shape or nothing like that. I just feel like once the games started, just finding my rhythm, for some reason it wasn’t there, but shit happens.”

“Some analysts believe [Jonathan] Kuminga could fetch more than $30 million per year on the open market, a figure that would make him the second-highest-paid player on Golden State’s roster.”

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/4/17/...-offseason

[SleepingHero]

That report does not make any sense.  How are market forces going to involve Mavs?  They will be well over the cap.  I doubt Klay can be had for the MLE (which we don't even have at the moment).

Market forces also includes Klay's desires.

Maybe Klay likes Dallas and the team they have. His agent also sees a glaring need for a reliable 3pt shooter in the starting lineup and the starting 3 spot isn't held down totally. If Klay wants to go to Dallas, GSW will have to oblige to get assets back.


But I'm with FGump here. Best case scenario the Mavs can do an even swap with THJ and Klay, although I don't think this is even a remotely likely scenario. He's going to stay with the Warriors on a modest 2 year 50 mil deal and it's going to line up easily with Curry's and Kerr's contracts.

[Chicagojk]

I don't believe that Klay Thompson report has any meat on it. If I were to guess, Thompson gets some attractive offers this summer, but decides to stay in GS after a lot of thought...even if it is for less money and a bench role.

GS gets rid of Paul, Wiggins and Looney. If they can get back anything is another story..I would guess no. Pod gets Paul's minutes. Kuminga starts for Wiggins and Looney is replaced for someone younger.

Their new leadership had a real solid draft this year. Maybe they can find another guy. I think they need more size at the 4 and 5. Tough to see how they rebuild to be a contender again, but maybe they get lucky with a player wanting to be there and can swing a trade. It is going to be really tough though.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

After looking further, I see that even after waiving CP3, GS will have to consider Apron 1 (hard cap) limits ($179M) in many scenarios. 

In the scenario of SNT trade KT for THJ/Green (tot $29M), that hard caps them and puts them close to their hard cap, after they fill 3 more slots (@$2.1M each) to get to the minimum of 14 players, with just a bit of a cushion left. But no room for a 15th player for the whole year, unless it's a rookie 2nd rounder, but they can do 10-day deals and eventually a rest-of-season deal. No space for any MLE.
 
Without a SNT they have more flexibility, as they have no hard cap and their effective limit then jumps to about $190M (Apron 2), which leaves room for a 15th player, and the room to use the TxP MLE of about 5.2M.

I think there's no way they pay KT the $43M he made this past season, but they might be able to justify some lower number that still gives them the opportunity to use the MLE and slot 15 while keeping the gang together. That could even be as high as 32-33M, although I don't think he's worth that, but perhaps they do.

And if he wants to stay in GS, I have a hard time believing he won't accept a lower number.

[youzigizag]

And if he wants to stay in GS, I have a hard time believing he won't accept a lower number.

I get that you can come back after going to another city for your last couple of years in the league...

But just staying loyal to the Bay Area...seems like long term he could make more money doing Promo work in the Bay.

Steph, Dray and Klay stand to make a ton of money off that city post-career.   I assume Klay takes a hair cut to stay with the team unless they are telling him minutes will be scarce and he still wants to play and would prefer going somewhere he can get minutes.