Trade & FA 2023-24: Booker Likes NYK? Vogel Out? Suns Imploding?

[mvossman]

Just throwing this out there, if the Heat fail in the playoffs, or heck even miss the playoffs, how much would you be willing to offer for a potential Jimmy Butler deal? He's due for a max extension that will pay him till he's 38.

But in terms of fit, isn't he the ideal 3 that we'd want next to Kyrie and Luka?

Same argument as Paul George.  He will be 35 next season, struggles with staying on the court, and crazy expensive (both cap and assets).  To be honest, I think George is actually a little better fit on this team next to Luka and Kyrie.

[mvossman]

I was perusing stats last night looking for targets and Jalen Johnson on the Hawks really jumped out as someone that has a lot of potential. Hawks seem pretty high on him but he is raw enough that maybe he is getable with an overpay?

The other team I keep coming back to is Portland. I don’t see how Jerami Grant fits in to their plans now that Dame is gone. I have to think he is getable for future assets. I realize he is already 30 but he is a long (7’3” wingspan) versatile player who can shoot and would fit well along Luka/Ky/PJ/Gafford. Another plus is he is locked up for a long time so Dallas's starting 5 will be stable for a number of years.

Even though I feel like it verges on being too much for a 30 year old player, would anyone here consider a deal of THJ + 2 FRPs + filler for Jerami Grant? Would Portland go for this?

I think PJ is the better fit and we already have him.  He is better defender and rebounder, and I don't think Grant's offense is nearly good enough to balance out that plus two firsts.  If you play them both together, who is your POA defender?

[mvossman]

Jalen Jackson is going to be a stud.  I just don't see ATL letting him go.

Grant is a poor rebounder and meh defender.  If we could get him for that package, though, you do that deal.

So I agree with your assessment of Grant, but then you are happy to send out our last two firsts for him?

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

So I agree with your assessment of Grant, but then you are happy to send out our last two firsts for him?

From an asset perspective, yes.  He'd immediately be our #3 scorer.  Think of him as a THJ upgrade.  From a contract perspective, his is pretty ugly.  27-28 $36.4mill PO.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I think PJ is the better fit and we already have him.  He is better defender and rebounder, and I don't think Grant's offense is nearly good enough to balance out that plus two firsts.  If you play them both together, who is your POA defender?

Precisely.  That's why I would view Grant as nothing more than a THJ upgrade.

For a starter, we need a big SF POA defender with a decent offensive game, a DJJ upgrade while hopefully also keeping DJJ.

[mvossman]

From an asset perspective, yes.  He'd immediately be our #3 scorer.  Think of him as a THJ upgrade.  From a contract perspective, his is pretty ugly.  27-28 $36.4mill PO.

Why in the world would we pay two first for a Timmy upgrade?

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Why in the world would we pay two first for a Timmy upgrade?

Shit, my bad.  I thought it was 2 SRPs.  Hell no!

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

Don't sleep on GG Jackson.  Good defender.  Shooting 35%3pt, which is good for a rookie.  Great size.  I see a lot of upside.

Memphis has some of the best scouting in the league. They always find good young talent to develop.  Also, they are playing that young talent due to injuries, so when they get the vets back next year, I expect them to take the same jump Houston did this year. The West just gets tougher.

[SleepingHero]

Same argument as Paul George.  He will be 35 next season, struggles with staying on the court, and crazy expensive (both cap and assets).  To be honest, I think George is actually a little better fit on this team next to Luka and Kyrie.

George is 100% the better fit offensively. Heck maybe even defensively. I'd prefer him if I had the option to choose between the two...

After reviewing the potential contracts and seeing that Butler is set to be paid 48 mil next season, I'm convinced the Mavs have no realistic avenue at a trade for him any time soon. For whatever reason I thought Butler was at the 38-40 mil mark. Not nearly 50. 

George's ability to choose his starting number this summer keeps the pipe dream alive. He's going to want as close to his max as possible which is around 49.5 mil. A SnT with the Clips kicks in the rules of 175%+250k as a match for salary. Which means theoretically THJ+Green is all that is needed for a deal. Doing so pushes the Mavs well into the 2nd apron. Obviously it's going to take more than THJ+Green too, like Hardy and probably Maxi. This also basically nixes the chance DJJ comes back unless he's fine with a minimum contract. If so then the roster is:

Luka/Exum
Kyrie/----
PG/DJJ
PJ/OMax/Morris
Gafford/Lively/Powell

Is that worth it...?

[youzigizag]

Yall talking Jimmy Butler and Paul George...

Yet Andrew Wiggins is only 29 and cheaper than those guys. Ascending contract...but cap keeps going up.

Andrew Wiggins is frowned upon here though. Long, athletic, can defend, doesnt require the ball, no major fundamental flaws in his bball skills, can shoot the 3, proven playoff performer(disruptive on defense in GS playoffs)

I dont understand the Butler and George talk at their age and contracts. I like both player...both would have been perfect next to Luka if under 30 years old. My selfish opinion...I dont want players that are so old that have to be game managed a lot during the regular season. At some point George and Butler will have to consider wear on their bodies and save their fuel for Playoffs.

Butler and George are both more reliable 2-ways as far as scoring goes...but that age is scary at that price point.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Yall talking Jimmy Butler and Paul George...

Yet Andrew Wiggins is only 29 and cheaper than those guys.  Ascending contract...but cap keeps going up.

Andrew Wiggins is frowned upon here though.  Long, athletic, can defend, doesnt require the ball, no major fundamental flaws in his bball skills, can shoot the 3,  proven playoff performer(disruptive on defense in GS playoffs)

I dont understand the Butler and George talk at their age and contracts.  I like both player...both would have been perfect next to Luka if under 30 years old.  My selfish opinion...I dont want players that are so old that have to be game managed a lot during the regular season.  At some point George and Butler will have to consider wear on their bodies and save their fuel for Playoffs. 

Butler and George are both more reliable 2-ways as far as scoring goes...but that age is scary at that price point.

If we don't try to scout out a young SF to fit the bill, yes, Wiggins is the best fit of all the vets.  Let's keep Uncle Kyrie uncle.

[youzigizag]

If we don't try to scout out a young SF to fit the bill, yes, Wiggins is the best fit of all the vets.  Let's keep Uncle Kyrie uncle.

Hes only 26 years old but is a long 2way with a 7'3 wingspan.   Doesnt have much post season experience, the jury was out on if he could perform in post season, when he did make it to post season he showed up on both ends.

6'8 - Brandon Ingram

But he is 33M and 36M next couple years.   

Supposedly he was possibly gettable last year.  I havent heard anything about him this year.  Dont know if he is injured.  I know posters were too interested a couple of years ago when discussing him.   But 26 and long and 2way.  I would rather go that route than George and Butler.

[SwisherPrice]

I'm definitely considering Cam Johnson in a trade, especially if it's in a package for THJ and Green. 6'8" SF who would contribute to the size/length lineups and immediately be one of the best shooters on the team. The only concern (and it's a big one) is that he is injury prone and has missed a lot of games over the past seasons.

[F Gump]

I was perusing stats last night looking for targets and Jalen Johnson on the Hawks really jumped out as someone that has a lot of potential. Hawks seem pretty high on him but he is raw enough that maybe he is getable with an overpay?

The other team I keep coming back to is Portland. I don’t see how Jerami Grant fits in to their plans now that Dame is gone. I have to think he is getable for future assets. I realize he is already 30 but he is a long (7’3” wingspan) versatile player who can shoot and would fit well along Luka/Ky/PJ/Gafford. Another plus is he is locked up for a long time so Dallas's starting 5 will be stable for a number of years.

Even though I feel like it verges on being too much for a 30 year old player, would anyone here consider a deal of THJ + 2 FRPs + filler for Jerami Grant? Would Portland go for this?

1 I was a very eager for chasing JJ a year ago, as part of other moves, before he had much of a role with ATL when they had all sorts of roster changes looming. Now it's way too late.

2 No interest at all in Grant. He is less about winning, and more about being The Guy (that shoots a lot and gets paid $28M) and not the role player he who does the dirty work (and who then ends up in the mid-teens payroll). He's a good fit for a team going nowhere, who needs a fake "star" to draw fans. For a winning team, who wants to win a title, ugh no.

[F Gump]

A SnT with the Clips kicks in the rules of 175%+250k as a match for salary.

No. There is no such thing as a SNT with the Clippers, since they will be over Apron 2 (unless you think they will let Harden walk). And any non-SNT trade between DAL-LAC would have to be an exact dollar match, within 250K.

[SleepingHero]

Yall talking Jimmy Butler and Paul George...

Yet Andrew Wiggins is only 29 and cheaper than those guys.  Ascending contract...but cap keeps going up.

Andrew Wiggins is frowned upon here though.  Long, athletic, can defend, doesnt require the ball, no major fundamental flaws in his bball skills, can shoot the 3,  proven playoff performer(disruptive on defense in GS playoffs)

I dont understand the Butler and George talk at their age and contracts.  I like both player...both would have been perfect next to Luka if under 30 years old.  My selfish opinion...I dont want players that are so old that have to be game managed a lot during the regular season.  At some point George and Butler will have to consider wear on their bodies and save their fuel for Playoffs. 

Butler and George are both more reliable 2-ways as far as scoring goes...but that age is scary at that price point.

Wiggins on the court makes sense. But the reasons why he's never on the court is scarier than Butler or George. It's one thing to have a fragile body, but Wiggins' issues resemble Ben Simmons' lack of desire and mental fortitude. That is really hard to overcome.

If Wiggins was as good as George or Butler, maybe some teams could tolerate it. I'd be petrified though taking on that contract without a lot of 1sts attached to it. 

BUT if we're talking about Wiggins the player? Yeah he fits REAL good. He does just about everything we are wanting from a SF. He's big enough to play the 4 too. He can defend as good as any. His scoring has always been a strength.

It should caution you the Warriors were ready to cut him loose for whatever this trade deadline given all of that.

[SleepingHero]

No. There is no such thing as a SNT with the Clippers, since they will be over Apron 2 (unless you think they will let Harden walk). And any non-SNT trade between DAL-LAC would have to be an exact dollar match, within 250K.

Oops. You're right.

I did my math without Harden's cap hold. Theoretically they could re-sign Harden to a moderate sized contract in the mid 20s and they'd be under the 2nd apron.

But the pipe dream has gotten even less realistic there. 

I haven't been able to properly respond to your Caruso idea from earlier. But just because I'm tinkering with this George fantasy doesn't mean I think it's the best course of action.  I think your avenue makes much more sense not only from a cap perspective but also from a chemistry perspective. I'm trying to work up a list of guys who I think would fit your framework and make sense. Hopefully I find the time to finish it soon!

[F Gump]

Oops. You're right.

I did my math without Harden's cap hold. Theoretically they could re-sign Harden to a moderate sized contract in the mid 20s and they'd be under the 2nd apron.

But the pipe dream has gotten even less realistic there. 

I haven't been able to properly respond to your Caruso idea from earlier. But just because I'm tinkering with this George fantasy doesn't mean I think it's the best course of action.  I think your avenue makes much more sense not only from a cap perspective but also from a chemistry perspective. I'm trying to work up a list of guys who I think would fit your framework and make sense. Hopefully I find the time to finish it soon!

1 They don't even have room for 20M for Harden, because they have to fill the roster and they are at 169M for 11 players. Each minimum salary counts at least 2M for apron purposes, and it's about the whole roster payroll total. They'd want to leave some sort of cushion, with a hard cap to navigate. Apron 2 will be at 190M. That leaves maybe 15M or so for Harden, and since his whole reason for pushing his way out of Philly was money and Morey's failure to pay, I would bet his number lands in the 30s, maybe the 40s.

2 On the Caruso idea, I looked for other options with THJ outgoing, but couldn't find any that make sense to me.

In order for the salary reduction to help with DJJ, part of the salary savings is eaten up in simply being below Apron 1 with enough cushion to navigate a year with a hard cap. I think getting to that point eats up the first $2M of savings from a trade.

Alternate 1 - The idea of Josh Green for Caruso has been floated as an alternate, and that feels like an even swap (no picks needed), with JG younger and also locked in for multiple years, but that basically gains you not enough to be usable on increasing an offer to DJJ (it only gains about 2.5M). And you still have THJ, while I think this summer will be the optimal time to try to trade him.

Alternate 2 - You should be able to give away JG, with no return, and probably get a 1st, and that solves the DJJ contract, but it doesn't solve THJ and it doesn't land you a useful player in return.

Alternate 3 - Maybe you can do JG for Caruso, and then give away THJ for nothing (could that be doable, based on his season?) or even get a low pick? If you can do both of those, that sure works for me.

Giving away Hardy, or including him, doesn't help the money-for-DJJ issue, as Hardy would have to be replaced with a min salary player, who would count the same against the hard cap for Apron 1.

A THJ deal that works has to be a swap with the other team having ability to absorb extra. Some cannot. Sending out THJ, the most you can get in salary reduction would be 7.5M with the right team (other than teams who are well under the cap). But I'd also want it to be a player not only with the right size contract, but also good enough to be useful, with the big hole on the roster being that of a designated shooter, so to speak, who isn't wildly inefficient and bereft of defense.

I am interested in other options, if there are any that make sense, bedsides Caruso. I couldn't find any. I'll be interested to see what you can come up with.

[michaeltex]

Was looking at the draft order, pre-lottery, because I was wondering how many picks OKC has since they are starting to get keep-able talent developed. My thought was maybe a pick would be available if there were more picks than team spaces available. Surprisingly, they only have HOU's pick at 19 this year. None in 2nd round.

They do have 4 FRP and 2 SRP for 2025, so there might be some deals available for future picks.

[Jym]

Turning THJ, 2nd rounders, and maybe Hardy into a plus defender would be nice but we need to be picky with our future first rounders. Can't do anything silly like trade the 2031 for a MLE level guy
Also hopefully there's plenty of minutes for Omax next year. If he doesn't get at least 20 mpg we're doing something wrong