Trade & FA 2023-24: Booker Likes NYK? Vogel Out? Suns Imploding?

[surfpuckmd]

After quick reading it feels like Wizards fans (while happy with the pick) are much more bummed than Hornet fans.  It will be interesting to watch Washington’s  game.  Would it be safe to assume to hope his game mimics what Gordon does for Denver?  Is that even in the ballpark?  I think Gordon is better but would love to see Washington play that style of game

PJ Washington is much less athletic than Aaron Gordon.  He's not nearly as good at finishing around the rim.  He doesn't rebound as well.  Aaron Gordon is an excellent defensive player.  PJ Washington is a below-average defensive player.  Both players cost a first-round pick.  

Denver is a great organization and the Mavericks are not.  Those are the differences.

[mvossman]

This is well said.  We gave up our assets for some role players.  Only Gafford has been a net positive this season.  The other two have been bad.  We continually use assets to acquire a player then we turn on that player.   Then we use assets to either get rid of that player or swap him out for a similar-level player.  It's just dumb.  

Holding onto the 2027 1st would have allowed us to obtain a quality starting PF this coming summer.  Instead, we have PJ Washington.  He has a small chance to become that quality starter if only he improves on offense and defense while playing for Jason Kidd.  It's like we're investing our savings in raffle tickets.  It's possible that we win but the odds stacked against us.

I don't think our trading position is significantly worse that what it was prior to the TDL.  We will still have 2 firsts, and PJ is a young player on a good contract who would have value in a PF trade.  We can also now add Gafford who is another young player on a good contract (especially if you are starting him).  Unless PJ pulls a GWill, I think our trade position is similar to what it would have been.

[Winter]

Holding onto the 2027 1st would have allowed us to obtain a quality starting PF this coming summer. 

This gets said quite a bit. I think it's BS frankly, especially in light of Luca's comments.

1. Great two-way players don't find their way into a trade every season where it's convenient for your team to make a play. 
2. We frequently get outbid. 

Just because we have a FRP, that doesn't translate into a contender-type player for our team. The player has to be the perfect complement. Plus, the market has to match your need and your ability to manage cap space. If you're waiting without a specific target, and you miss at upgrading your roster, what are you telling your best players?

I understand waiting if you have specific designs and know certain players might be available. But, in regards to Gafford, when Doncic says, "I've been hoping for a backup center for three years" you can't whine about slightly overspending to make the roster better with that player. We all knew our rebounding and rim protection was inadequate. That acquisition was badly needed. 

In regards to G. Williams, you know that position is a handicap. If Williams is a problem, and you have a chance to get an upgrade, do that for the sake of those players. Guys like Doncic have to be listened to. I don't think you can just say, "we were hoping for something better this summer". That sounds like a poor excuse more than a strategy.

[surfpuckmd]

I don't think our trading position is significantly worse that what it was prior to the TDL.  We will still have 2 firsts, and PJ is a young player on a good contract who would have value in a PF trade.  We can also now add Gafford who is another young player on a good contract (especially if you are starting him).  Unless PJ pulls a GWill, I think our trade position is similar to what it would have been.

It's worse than it should have been.  We would have had 3 first round picks this coming offseason had we not traded the 2027 1st for PJ.  I think that could have helped obtain an elite role player like Cam Johnson.  

The PJ enthusiasm is mostly based upon everyone's disgust with Grant Williams.  Grant was a disappointment here and everyone wanted to upgrade.  I don't believe many people have watched a lot of PJ Washington this season though.  I'm curious to hear from those who have.  What has he done well this season?  I've probably watched 10 Hornets games this season.  I'm a fan of the Mavs and Pelicans but I have bets on several other teams to win the NBA championship.  So, I have an interest in four other teams right now.  Anyway, PJ Washington is a very unremarkable player who doesn't seem to do anything particularly well.  

You're an analytics guy and I'm sure you've checked the metrics on him this season.  They're all pretty negative on PJ Washington.  

I think we paid a large price to trade one bad player for a guy who is maybe less bad.  PJ is bigger which is nice and his contract is a year shorter which I like.  Otherwise, this is not a good deal.

[mvossman]

PJ Washington is much less athletic than Aaron Gordon.  He's not nearly as good at finishing around the rim.  He doesn't rebound as well.  Aaron Gordon is an excellent defensive player.  PJ Washington is a below-average defensive player.  Both players cost a first-round pick.  

Denver is a great organization and the Mavericks are not.  Those are the differences.

Gordon was a good player on a crappy Orlando team, and then went to Denver and become really good.  Lets hope PJ follows a similar path.

[Smitty]

You're not wrong but I'm not either.  It simply depends on your perspective.  If you spend 40k to buy a 4runner but then a year later, you trade it and 40k in cash for a Range Rover, you have spent 80k ultimately to obtain the Range Rover.  Minus the utility of driving that 4runner for a year which you could estimate.

Your way of looking at it is also correct.  You're just focusing on the immediate deal.  

It is possible that the Mavericks were sick of Grant Williams, recognized their mistake and wanted to desperately get rid of him even though we just paid a 2030 pick swap to obtain him.  

I think that's really concerning though.  We have done this repeatedly over the past 15 years.  We're not only bad at talent evaluation but we turn on our players very easily.  There's something pathologic there.  I think Cuban is the biggest part of it but Kidd and even Luka seem to contribute as well.  We're like a guy who has been divorced 11 times.  After a while, that guy needs to understand that he's the problem.  

Just in the past year we've turned on Christian Wood, JaVale McGee and Grant Williams.  Other good teams don't do this.  

The biggest issue is just the price we paid for PJ Washington.  It's like we traded the 4Runner for a Toyota Highlander with similar mileage.  Yet we also included 40k in the deal.  The other guy had a really good day.

The point is, those are two different arguments. Most of what you said I can agree with to some degree and share your frustration when the Mavs strike out on a player.

I just want it to be clear that PJW did not 'cost' a FRP. Many keep saying it and it's just wrong.

His value to the Mavs was trading a protected FRP, a negative player - sizable contract, and receiving 2 SRP's.

[youzigizag]

PJ seems to be a HOPE play by the Mavs.

I hope it works out. I hope I eat crow and the Fit Player excels here.

Im skeptical of using assets(FRP's) on a HOPE Player, though.

Here's HOPING to the Luka-effect and System Fit.

PJ does seem to have well rounded fundamental bball skills which I beat the drum for around here...so I cant be negative there. He does seem to fit the Mavs' System...so I cant be negative there.

PJ seems like a talent upgrade. A FRP upgrade? Lets see what System Fit and Luka-Effect can do for the "Perfect Player".

[ItsGoTime]

The point is, those are two different arguments. Most of what you said I can agree with to some degree and share your frustration when the Mavs strike out on a player.

I just want it to be clear that PJW did not 'cost' a FRP. Many keep saying it and it's just wrong.

His value to the Mavs was trading a protected FRP, a negative player - sizable contract, and receiving 2 SRP's.

I keep saying it, so many around here have no clue about the concept of aggregation.

[Jason Terry]

Moving on to the next trade season……

There’s much more clarity to the summer now.

We have the Boston 2024 2nd now. Nico is a draft wizard. I’m looking for him to do something like:

Dallas gets: pick 39

Other team gets: pick 58 and Hardy

Something like that plus the tax MLE which could be offered to Jones jr or someone else

[mvossman]

It's worse than it should have been.  We would have had 3 first round picks this coming offseason had we not traded the 2027 1st for PJ.  I think that could have helped obtain an elite role player like Cam Johnson.  

The PJ enthusiasm is mostly based upon everyone's disgust with Grant Williams.  Grant was a disappointment here and everyone wanted to upgrade.  I don't believe many people have watched a lot of PJ Washington this season though.  I'm curious to hear from those who have.  What has he done well this season?  I've probably watched 10 Hornets games this season.  I'm a fan of the Mavs and Pelicans but I have bets on several other teams to win the NBA championship.  So, I have an interest in four other teams right now.  Anyway, PJ Washington is a very unremarkable player who doesn't seem to do anything particularly well.  

You're an analytics guy and I'm sure you've checked the metrics on him this season.  They're all pretty negative on PJ Washington.  

I think we paid a large price to trade one bad player for a guy who is maybe less bad.  PJ is bigger which is nice and his contract is a year shorter which I like.  Otherwise, this is not a good deal.

I am an analytics guy, but part of that involves looking at as large a sample as I can and looking at context.

Thats why I'm not going to overweight half of a disgruntled season vs the rest of his career.

Before this season he was a good young player with potential to get better.  He is still only 25.  

He shoots nearly 40% from 3 when wide open, but gets less of those shots than most of our players.  Luka effect.

I really think he will benefit defensively playing next to a legit center, instead of having to play that role himself.

I think its way to early to call PJ a bad player.  There was some risk in the trade, but it sounds like they were having issues with GWill in the locker room as well as on the court and he needed to go.

[ItsGoTime]

A thought as I read the last bit of posts. We did not trade a full pick swap for GWill, we traded 1/2 of it for him and have 2 SRPs still left from it. We actually traded the pick swap to get off the last year of Reggie’s contract and 4 SRPs which we still have 2. So in essence we traded less than 1/2 of a pick swap for GWill. The pick swap has a chance to not be executed too (or swapping a few picks away, we still get a pick though), which means we traded RB for 4 SRPs.

[Smitty]

A thought as I read the last bit of posts. We did not trade a full pick swap for GWill, we traded 1/2 of it for him and have 2 SRPs still left from it. We actually traded the pick swap to get off the last year of Reggie’s contract and 4 SRPs which we still have 2. So in essence we traded less than 1/2 of a pick swap for GWill. The pick swap has a chance to not be executed too (or swapping a few picks away, we still get a pick though), which means we traded RB for 4 SRPs.

I didn’t even want to get into this part because explaining the PJW deal seems to be too difficult. Good luck to you and your replies!

[ItsGoTime]

Oh, another point. If Lively is out for 3-4 more games and Gafford shows to work well starting, I’m not all that confident that Lively is still the starter for the rest of the season. He still needs to figure out how to not pick up ticky tack fouls and Gafford has the tenure to have gotten that far. That will be important in the playoffs. Lively can still learn plenty off the bench.

[BigDirk41]

Oh, another point. If Lively is out for 3-4 more games and Gafford shows to work well starting, I’m not all that confident that Lively is still the starter for the rest of the season. He still needs to figure out how to not pick up ticky tack fouls and Gafford has the tenure to have gotten that far. That will be important in the playoffs. Lively can still learn plenty off the bench.

Yeah that wouldn't surprise me at all. Either way, I'm excited to have them both.

[Winter]

Oh, another point. If Lively is out for 3-4 more games and Gafford shows to work well starting, I’m not all that confident that Lively is still the starter for the rest of the season. He still needs to figure out how to not pick up ticky tack fouls and Gafford has the tenure to have gotten that far. That will be important in the playoffs. Lively can still learn plenty off the bench.

I've thought of this too, but I find it hard to imagine that Lively doesn't have a really long leash in that regard. Every true rookie center is faced with the foul issue. If you're rim protector, you're a foul magnet by default. 

Replacing him as a starter in the lineup might be too much drama for a rookie. I think the time to make a serious change would be at the beginning of next season if the thinking was clear that the team would be better for it.

[Nowitzki Way]

Oh, another point. If Lively is out for 3-4 more games and Gafford shows to work well starting, I’m not all that confident that Lively is still the starter for the rest of the season. He still needs to figure out how to not pick up ticky tack fouls and Gafford has the tenure to have gotten that far. That will be important in the playoffs. Lively can still learn plenty off the bench.

i dont think we'll see Lively for a few games.  I think Gafford will end up looking amazing as the starter. i'm not sure they will bring Lively off the bench when both are available, but i can see Gafford getting more minutes. He's honestly the better and more consistent player right now. But thats ok, we have two really really good ones now.

[surfpuckmd]

I am an analytics guy, but part of that involves looking at as large a sample as I can and looking at context.

Thats why I'm not going to overweight half of a disgruntled season vs the rest of his career.

Before this season he was a good young player with potential to get better.  He is still only 25.  

He shoots nearly 40% from 3 when wide open, but gets less of those shots than most of our players.  Luka effect.

I really think he will benefit defensively playing next to a legit center, instead of having to play that role himself.

I think its way to early to call PJ a bad player.  There was some risk in the trade, but it sounds like they were having issues with GWill in the locker room as well as on the court and he needed to go.

I really hope you're right as I would like to be wrong about PJ Washington.  

Part of the rationale for the Grant Williams trade was because we needed a vocal leader in the locker room.  Apparently though, he just annoyed everyone and they wanted him gone.  Still, one of the league's best franchises was able to tolerate Grant for four years and he was a significant part of their franchise.  I think this speaks very poorly to our locker room rather than Grant.  

Part of the group hope is that PJ Washington wasn't trying his hardest because he was on a bad team.  The hope is that he'll try harder on a better team.  I think it's disturbing that a guy making $16 million was disgruntled.  Although the Mavericks are a better team, maybe he'll now be disgruntled because he'll have less opportunity to score?  

As a comparison, Gafford was also on a terrible team.  Yet he has been really good this season and always plays with intensity.  That's why the Gafford trade is a big positive for us.  The PJ Washington deal is us gambling at low odds.  

We're a more talented roster than we were 2 days ago.  However, we gave up significant assets that we can no longer use this coming summer.  That matters.  

The Dinwiddie situation is exciting though.  Signing him for the rest of the season would change my grade on this trade deadline.  Currently, I'm giving the Mavericks a B based on the two deals we made.  

Signing Dinwiddie would give us an A-

[youzigizag]

So...Gafford does have playoff experience per basketball reference.

2021 Post-Season, 5 Games Played

23mpg, 11.8ppg, 5.8rpg, 2bpg, .846 FG%, .625 FT%

[Jmaciscool]

Feels like in the old days we would have traded Josh Green for PJ Washington (because that's what Charlotte asked for) and would have spent a couple of seconds to trade for 38 year old PJ Tucker. The 2027 first would have been traded to get off of Holmes to make space for free agency signings.

[michaeltex]

A few thoughts after catching up on some excellent posts...

Gafford may be a season-saving acqusition. DL3 has been excellent and I'm excited by his potential, but he's been on an island and now has a partner to ease that burden without a fall off in team performance. Two-headed monster. I think getting rid of Porzingis helped him this year in Washington and I'm glad he was available.

Dinwiddie's role during his previous stint was always that of a secondary playmaker. He could make positive contributions playing with either Luka or Brunson because he was never the offensive focus. He's not a 3pt shooter like THJ, but he has a much better ability to get into the lane and finish well. Personally I hope he decides to come back. I thought the scene's from last nights game were interesting.

I dunno about PJ. I'm hopeful that playing with Luka will awaken his offensive game, it seems to help a lot of players that way and I don't see it not working offensively. I think his defense is the big unknown at this time, although he has the physical tools to make it work. If he at least tries, then the Mavs will be better for it. If he doesn't....well I'm trying to stay positive here.

One positive is that the team is home until the 24th. So two weeks of practice time without the travel (except for the ASG participants) including a multi-day break over next weekend should be a good opportunity to re-set, get a feel for how the new guys fit, get everyone healthy and ready to surprise some people going in to the playoffs.