Trade & FA 2023-24: Booker Likes NYK? Vogel Out? Suns Imploding?

[F Gump]

Stein mentioned WCJr being available in a note again today.  He’s been mentioning this a good bit and no one else is really saying much about him.  Stein has also been strangely quiet about Mav’s rumors.  If “league officials” are saying Carter is available, are those “league sources” coming from Dallas.

If he was healthy, Carter would really be a good fit here.  He’s rarely healthy, but neither is Maxi.  Would you rather have younger Maxi who gets hurt a lot of older Maxi who gets hurt a lot.  I could see Dallas having more interest in WCJr if Maxi was part of the deal (so hang in there, it’s coming).

The price for Orlando is THJ.  They are 29th in the league in 3 point shooting and THJ isn’t shy.  And obviously, the Magic coach knows him well.  THJ for WCJ doesn’t seem like an even swap given WCJ’s health.  So, the question for me is whether there is a way of engineering a deal that has elements other than THJ for broken down Carter Jr.

Turns out THJ is a match for WCJr and Ingles.  So, call that the first trade.  Ingles, BTW, has a TO for next year at $11mm (so call him an expiring contract with benefits).  Orlando is currently about $5mm under the cap and once that trade is done they will be enough under the cap to fit Maxi into their cap.  So, trade #2 is Maxi for a second rounder and an $11mm TPE.  The last benefit of such a deal is that Dallas now sits $8mm under the tax for the current season and could use the rest of the MLE or their existing TPE to take on a player and still be under the tax.  

So, the net result of such a deal end up

THJ (who isn’t ideal here)
Maxi (who is never healthy)

For

Ingles (who is just as bad defensively, but you can run some offense through him and can be expiring)
WCJr (who when healthy is a much better and longer Maxi)
TPE of $11mm
Ability to use the current MLE or TPE and stay under the tax
2nd round pick 

If we could ever get a week where both Maxi and Carter are healthy, I could see them doing this.  A couple more guys and we could run an all-Australia lineup at times.

Well thought out and reasonably possible idea imo (although fyi I believe the two-trade aspect isn't needed to net the TPE).

THJ-Maxi     FOR    WCJ-Ingles-SRP

In theory you might want to send Holmes rather than Maxi, if you think Maxi has any future potential to contribute here. (From ORL perspective, taking Holmes is less salary to have to accept, and any C they get is probably going to play much anyhow. Holmes actually offers DAL a bigger TPE, too.)

The question is whether the Mavs are the same without THJ. If they feel Hardy (or a Hardy-Curry combo) can sufficiently fill the same minutes, it seems like a swap with benefits for both teams. But THJ has a fairly sizable role right now.

The cap potential isn't a game changer really, assuming Ingles expires and walks. You have opened up enough room to be in the same roster place next year as now, which is to say you now have the MLE to re-sign DJJ, plus room for 2 min-salary players to be added, and with a bit of careful cap work you land right at or below the tax line. That's basically the same roster. In that context, it feels unlikely they would use any TPE. Room for DJJ is a plus, of course, so it's a start.

[DanSchwartzgan]

coupled with Ingles (in trade 1) who only manages about 5 points a game now and can't play defense.

I agree with the defensive criticism.  But if you look at Ingles numbers, he’s a good bit more than just a five point a game guy.  His 3 point shooting is great and his playmaking and shooting would allow us to keep more good defenders on the court with Ingles and one of the stars.  For all of his shortcomings, Orlando crushes it when he’s in the game.

[Tyler]

If Orlando is willing to take Holmes and Dallas is willing to rehab talented young lottery picks who have struggled with injuries, I'd personally take Isaac over Ingles any day. THJ/Holmes for WCJ/Isaac is a very close match financially and has the potential to really help our frontcourt rotation.

[khaled1987]

THJ is essentially the best player in each trade scenario with Orlando that involves him, and it is by good margin. We lose this trade easily tbh and fill a hole with injury prone player, while creating another hole as we trade our 6th man.
Maybe if they are somehow willing to take GWill (or a 3rd team involved) I can imagine a trade that benefits us. Not with THJ.
And Ingles is a finished player, I doubt he will be in the NBA by next season.

[surfpuckmd]

Stein mentioned WCJr being available in a note again today.  He’s been mentioning this a good bit and no one else is really saying much about him.  Stein has also been strangely quiet about Mav’s rumors.  If “league officials” are saying Carter is available, are those “league sources” coming from Dallas.

If he was healthy, Carter would really be a good fit here.  He’s rarely healthy, but neither is Maxi.  Would you rather have younger Maxi who gets hurt a lot of older Maxi who gets hurt a lot.  I could see Dallas having more interest in WCJr if Maxi was part of the deal (so hang in there, it’s coming).

The price for Orlando is THJ.  They are 29th in the league in 3 point shooting and THJ isn’t shy.  And obviously, the Magic coach knows him well.  THJ for WCJ doesn’t seem like an even swap given WCJ’s health.  So, the question for me is whether there is a way of engineering a deal that has elements other than THJ for broken down Carter Jr.

Turns out THJ is a match for WCJr and Ingles.  So, call that the first trade.  Ingles, BTW, has a TO for next year at $11mm (so call him an expiring contract with benefits).  Orlando is currently about $5mm under the cap and once that trade is done they will be enough under the cap to fit Maxi into their cap.  So, trade #2 is Maxi for a second rounder and an $11mm TPE.  The last benefit of such a deal is that Dallas now sits $8mm under the tax for the current season and could use the rest of the MLE or their existing TPE to take on a player and still be under the tax.  

So, the net result of such a deal end up

THJ (who isn’t ideal here)
Maxi (who is never healthy)

For

Ingles (who is just as bad defensively, but you can run some offense through hi and can be expiring)
WCJr (who when healthy is a much better and longer Maxi)
TPE of $11mm
Ability to use the current MLE or TPE and stay under the tax
2nd round pick 

If we could ever get a week where both Maxi and Carter are healthy, I could see them doing this.  A couple more guys and we could run an all-Australia lineup at times.

I made a moonshot bet on the Magic to win the championship before the season.  I have since cashed it out but I've watched a lot of Magic games on League Pass because of it.  Ingles is really good utility player.  He plays good defense, rebounds well and hits the occasional 3 at a good percentage.  He's bigger than THJ and would work well for us.  I think JKidd would really like him as well.  

I would definitely take the deal from the Mavs perspective.  Carter is a significant upgrade over Maxi and despite the injuries has played a lot more games over the past couple seasons.  He missed time this year because of a broken hand which will clearly not be a lingering issue.  Not sure about his knees.  I can imagine the Magic countering with Richaun Holmes instead of Maxi due to the shorter contract.  

The Magic are struggling a bit after a great start to the season and could definitely use another shooter/scorer like THJ.  I think this trade gives both teams what they want.  I can imagine the Magic feeling like they deserve some draft compensation though in the deal.  When healthy, I think WCJ is the best player in the trade.  Maxi has the worst contract. 

I would suggest adding the following wrinkle to the trade.  The Pelicans need to shed about $3 million in order to get out of the luxury tax.  We could take on Kira Lewis' expiring contract into the deal and the Pelicans could tip the Magic their 2030 2nd-round pick.  We'd drop Markieff Morris in the aftermath.  That would be fine.  Joe Ingles is a massive upgrade over Morris.  

WCJ, Joe Ingles and Kira Lewis to the Mavs.  
THJ, Maxi Kleber and the Pelicans 2030 2nd-rounder to the Magic. 
Pelicans get under the luxury tax.  

Jaden Hardy and Joe Ingles would replace THJ's minutes.  

I really like this deal.

[omahen]

 Stein has also been strangely quiet about Mav’s rumors.  

I also find that very intriguing. All his reporting has been extremely Mavs heavy and he is usually the one that breaks Mavs news like who is playing or out. I can of course only guess what is the reason for this, no clue really.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Well thought out and reasonably possible idea imo (although fyi I believe the two-trade aspect isn't needed to net the TPE).

THJ-Maxi     FOR    WCJ-Ingles-SRP

In theory you might want to send Holmes rather than Maxi, if you think Maxi has any future potential to contribute here. (From ORL perspective, taking Holmes is less salary to have to accept, and any C they get is probably going to play much anyhow. Holmes actually offers DAL a bigger TPE, too.)

Interesting.  Yeah, the inclusion of Maxi was strictly an attempt to get the TPE.  So, if Holmes accomplishes the same thing, then I can see both teams preferring that construct.  The core of the deal is THJ for WCJ.  Orlando could use Hardaway's shooting and Dallas can use Carter's two position ability at the 4/5.  If healthy, I'd argue his ability to defend two positions, hit 3's and rebound puts him very high on the list of usual suspects in Dallas trade rumors...very high.  I agree with Dr. Surfpuck.  If health wasn't a concern, he'd be the best player in the deal.

Ingles takes up some of the role Hardaway currently plays and has a very flexible contract situation.  I don't think Ingles is any worse than THJ on a per minute basis, but you probably can't get the minutes out of him that THJ gets and maintain that level of play.  To the extent Carter gets some minutes at the PF, you shift some of DJJ's time to the wing and now have Ingles, DJJ, Green and Exum to absorb whatever 1, 2, 3 minutes Kyrie and Luka don't eat.  I don't think Hardy/Seth's role has to change (especially if Holmes goes out instead of Maxi or GWill).  

The last piece is flexible for me.  Dallas needs to add salary to stay under the tax.  Any of Holmes, Maxi or GWill works, but only Maxi keeps Orlando under the cap at the end of the trade.  So, that's the direction I went.  Also, Mosley coached Maxi.  He didn't coach Holmes or GWill.  Another thing this does (especially the Holmes outgoing version) is it turns THJ into two players on a team that is already deep.  I think that's a good thing as we look to the future.  If this doesn't cost us a pick or a youngster we have too many guys going into 24/25.  I think you want that so that if you do a deal for a high dollar player this summer you need to still have depth.  Between Carter, Powell, Maxi, DJJ, OMax, GWill, Ingles, Green, Exum and Hardy you have 10 guys to go along with Luka, Kyrie and Lively.  You can do a 3 for 1 using your future draft picks and still be very deep.

[SleepingHero]

saw this in the discord and while I really do not like Kuzma at all, getting the starting 4 and backup 5 for THJ and 2nds is hard to turn down.

[omahen]

Interesting opinion based article by Sam Vecenie from The Athletic. List of most interesting players that seem like they will be moved. He doesn't think Moody or Kuminga are likely to be dealt. Some players he thinks are a good fit for Mavs and their value:
Siakam - multiple FRP and prospect
Kuzma - FRP and prospect
Caruso - FRP and prospect
Gafford - late FRP or multiple seconds and a prospect
Hunter - same as Gafford
Capela - high second round picks and a prospect
Royce O'Neale - high SRPs
Drummond - multiple SRPs
Delon Wright - SRPs

https://theathletic.com/5188498/2024/01/...te-murray/

[SleepingHero]

@TheSteinLine
"No team, furthermore, gets consistently mentioned in league circles as a potential suitor for Toronto’s Pascal Siakam more than the Pacers."

[SleepingHero]

@TheDunkCentral
"I think there's a zero percent chance of the Lakers trading for Zach Lavine."

- Brian Windhorst

---

@KeithSmithNBA

Current Tax Apron teams are:

Celtics - 2nd Apron
Nuggets - 1st Apron (hard capped at 2nd Apron)
Warriors - 2nd Apron
Clippers - 2nd Apron
Heat - 1st Apron
Bucks - 2nd Apron
Suns - 2nd Apron

None of these teams can sign a buyout player who made more than NTMLE this season.

[Chicagojk]

I saw a Toronto fan bring up the comparison of the Raptors vs the Jazz path going back to last offseason. The Jazz broke up a ship that was never going to get over the hump after may failed exits. They wound ups with Lauri and a ton of draft capital. They sold high on both Mitchell and Gobert.

Toronto has decided to hold on to their players. It appears they have held on too long. They are out of a draft pick for Poetl and now it appears they will not get full value for their players (Van Fleet left, OG was traded for current players not picks and Siakam may be the most difficult to get equal value for at the trade deadline).

[DanSchwartzgan]

Interesting opinion based article by Sam Vecenie from The Athletic. List of most interesting players that seem like they will be moved. He doesn't think Moody or Kuminga are likely to be dealt. Some players he thinks are a good fit for Mavs and their value:
Siakam - multiple FRP and prospect
Kuzma - FRP and prospect
Caruso - FRP and prospect
Gafford - late FRP or multiple seconds and a prospect
Hunter - same as Gafford
Capela - high second round picks and a prospect
Royce O'Neale - high SRPs
Drummond - multiple SRPs
Delon Wright - SRPs

https://theathletic.com/5188498/2024/01/...te-murray/

Great recap of a long and complex piece.  The only thing I'll add is under each player Sam puts a list of teams he thinks would be interested.  Dallas is listed last for Siakam, Kuzma, Gafford, Hunter, O'Neale, Drummond and Wright.  I might have assumed the order didn't matter, but he lists Dallas first for Capela and second for Caruso.  So, that leaves me to think there is something to the order he put the teams in.

[Winter]

Out of all that - and specifically thinking of need - I like Gafford (with a 2nd round pick) and Capela. Siakam might be there depending on cost, but I think either Capela or Gafford are doable.

I wonder where the Caruso listing came from? I've never once seen that rumor.

[F Gump]

Any of Holmes, Maxi or GWill works, but only Maxi keeps Orlando under the cap at the end of the trade.

Other than the fact that it's a smaller payroll by a relatively-minor amount, I don't see any value or need for ORL to be under the cap at the end of the trade. Am I missing something?

[mvossman]

Out of all that - and specifically thinking of need - I like Gafford (with a 2nd round pick) and Capela. Siakam might be there depending on cost, but I think either Capela or Gafford are doable.

I wonder where the Caruso listing came from? I've never once seen that rumor.

Gafford was either late first or multiple seconds and a prospect.  Green + 2 seconds would be the lightest cost for him (don't think we could get away with Holmes + Hardy + seconds).  I could live with that although I'm not sure Gafford would be excited about it.

We have been linked to Caruso before, but I don't see us paying the asking price.

[Winter]

Gafford was either late first or multiple seconds and a prospect.  Green + 2 seconds would be the lightest cost for him (don't think we could get away with Holmes + Hardy + seconds).  I could live with that although I'm not sure Gafford would be excited about it.

We have been linked to Caruso before, but I don't see us paying the asking price.

I would do Green + 2 seconds for Gafford in a heartbeat. To me, it fills the most important need.

[F Gump]

I would do Green + 2 seconds for Gafford in a heartbeat. To me, it fills the most important need.

I'd do that deal but it's not a salary match. And because of the tax implications and the PP issue, there would have to be pieces added on both sides to get just the right balance of salary and value.

Unfortunately I think the ESPN Trade Checker is messed up (lacking update to 2023 CBA rules) so it's not easy to find what does work.

[loki]

I would do Green + 2 seconds for Gafford in a heartbeat. To me, it fills the most important need.

No chance I'm moving Green for a backup. Washington can keep him if that's what it costs.

[Mavs2021]

Hell no. Washington has to give up the picks + Gafford for Green. In the last two years Hartenstein, Goga, Wagner and multiiple other bigs have changed teams for less than the MLE in the summer. Gafford is on the same tier.