Trade & FA 2023-24: Booker Likes NYK? Vogel Out? Suns Imploding?

[KillerLeft]

I understand a deal for that good two way wing might not happen. Assets are limited at TDL, Siakam might not want to be in Dallas, Mavs could still get outbid in the summer. However, spending the assets on meh options would certainly kill any possibility of such a deal to happen. My plan would be to either try for the likes of Siakam or Grant at TDL or wait till summer. If there is nothing on the table then, I might start looking at minor options. I am also not prepared to give up on GW so soon.

This is exactly where I am, too.

[surfpuckmd]

The person you are describing is Pascal Siakam. 

Ability to create for themselves? Check. 

Ability to hit a 3? Back when Pascal had an actual point guard setting him up, and another star to take the bulk pressure, he was a solid 3pt shooter. 21-22 he shot 36.5% on catch and shoot 3s. 37.4% if he was wide open. This trend holds in 20-21, 19-20, and 18-19 (C&S numbers respectively for the years: 31.3% 36.1%, 38.1%). I am confident that Pascal's looks at 3 will raise his percentages significantly playing next to Kyrie and Luka. Case in point DJJ. 

Ability to play defense and be a versatile defender? Check. Pascal is 6'8 230lbs. He can move his feet like DFS to keep up with shifty guards and is big enough to bother centers. His defensive acumen is well known at this point, and although he isn't a lockdown defender by any means, he certainly fits the mold of the type of forward Kidd likes in his scheme. He's big enough to play a small ball 5 and shifty enough to stop an opposing teams 2-guard. 

Ability to rebound? Check. He's a career 6.5rpg guy. Last 5 years that's closer to 8rpg. 

I don't think we have to overthink this. Pascal has been on the list of most ideal players we've wanted next to Luka for the last 3 years. He checks all the boxes. His shooting is spotty, but his self creation (AND efficiency) cancels that out. My only concern is his desire for a max deal and perhaps want to be next to Embiid. Mavs could theoretically offer 5/249 this summer. Any other team's max is 4/185. That's a significant difference. Even 5/220 blows any other offer out the water and still keeps Pascal making close to what both Luka and Kyrie are making annually. 

If we let it get to the summer, the Mavs have no leverage. Everything is on the table besides the core you laid out of Luka, Kyrie, Lively Green, Exum, Omax, DJJ core to me. I'd ideally try and keep Grant, but if they're not apart of the core they are available.

The player you're talking about is not the current Pascal Siakam.

You're correct in that he can create for himself.  He is a clever and efficient finisher offensively.  That's true.  That's his strength.  

He doesn't fit this roster thoough.  He is a poor 3-point shooter.  In fact, he's shooting less than 30% from 3 this season.  That's really bad.  Would he shoot better playing off Luka?   Probably.  However, that's still a weakness.  It doesn't matter that he was once decent 3-point shooter.  He is now a poor shooter from distance.

Defense?  He does have good size and long arms.  He could probably be a plus defender.  However, he is not a good defensive player currently.  His DPM is 0.0.  That's exactly average.  Would he choose to work harder on defense if we traded for him?  Maybe Jason Kidd could motivate him to work harder on defense.  Maybe Siakam will think Kidd's an asshole though and choose to relax on defense.  Regardless, Siakam is not a plus defender at this time.  I don't see why that would improve as he hits his 30s.

Rebounding?  He is at 6.7 rebounds per 36 minutes this season.  He was once a better rebounder but that is no longer a strength.  In fact, Dwight Powell who everyone complains about is a better rebounder than Siakam as he's at 8.6 rebounds per 36.  

Siakam is a talented player but I think his strength isn't really what we need.  You're assuming he would improve his 3-point shooting, rebounding and defense if he played on the Mavs and I believe that's too many assumptions to make.  He's either not trying his hardest as a Raptor or he's on the decline.  Neither option seems very appealing to trade for.  We'd be giving up all our available to assets to acquire him.  Then we'd have to pay a maximum contract to retain him.  That seems like we'd be guaranteeing a mediocre future.  

I'm on the side of either acquiring a good role player (Gafford, Isaiah Stewart) or just waiting.  I think Siakam is the wrong answer for so many reasons.

[KillerLeft]

He doesn't fit this roster thoough.  He is a poor 3-point shooter.  In fact, he's shooting less than 30% from 3 this season.  That's really bad.  Would he shoot better playing off Luka?   Probably.  However, that's still a weakness.  It doesn't matter that he was once decent 3-point shooter.  He is now a poor shooter from distance.

I know that talk of shooting for the Mavericks, a team who can usually score and not defend, invites eye rolls, AND I think I'm in favor of adding Siakam overall, but the above is definitely worth pausing and thinking about. 

For one thing, I highly doubt Siakam can spend much time on the court with DJJ, and I honestly don't like the chances of those two, along with Lively, giving enough space for Luka/Kyrie to do their thing. Heck, Green, Exum, Williams...none of those guys really shoots well enough to offset any TWO of the first group I mentioned. 

I'll say it again, and nobody will listen, but I'm right: If they trade Hardaway for a non-shooter, they'll have to find a role for Curry/Hardy. They'll have to do that whether they want to or not. 

Overall, I think I try to get Siakam, but I'd try to go the Williams/Holmes route for salary matching, not the Hardaway route.

[omahen]

I know that talk of shooting for the Mavericks, a team who can usually score and not defend, invites eye rolls, AND I think I'm in favor of adding Siakam overall, but the above is definitely worth pausing and thinking about. 

For one thing, I highly doubt Siakam can spend much time on the court with DJJ, and I honestly don't like the chances of those two, along with Lively, giving enough space for Luka/Kyrie to do their thing. Heck, Green, Exum, Williams...none of those guys really shoots well enough to offset any TWO of the first group I mentioned. 

I'll say it again, and nobody will listen, but I'm right: If they trade Hardaway for a non-shooter, they'll have to find a role for Curry/Hardy. They'll have to do that whether they want to or not. 

Overall, I think I try to get Siakam, but I'd try to go the Williams/Holmes route for salary matching, not the Hardaway route.

I have no problem if salary matching is GW/Holmes/Maxi/Green instead of THJ and two out of previously mentioned players.

However, Mavs will have options coming from the bench, even if they trade THJ. They can insert Curry and Hardy whenever shooting from the main guys stop and Mavs are in need of an offensive bump. I am not worried about offense at all. I see huge defensive improvements in overall rotation, by swapping THJ with Siakam.

Another thing about Mavs offense, I already wrote about. Two thirds of Lukas attempts this season are actually shots (last season 54 % of his attempts were shots). He is less dependant on getting to the rim than in previous seasons while still increasing his efficiency (as long as his shooting percentages hold). Opponents packing the paint is not a great strategy anymore. Luka needs to be doubled much higher, which is making way more space for his teammates and players who know how to put it on the floor are striving. GW, that was supposed to be an elite catch and shoot shooter, is not even getting a lot of attempts. 

And to those mentioning weak rebounding. GW is bringing 4.8 rebounds per 36 (playing 27 minutes). Siakam is at 6.7, greatly improving the position. Also, Siakams rebounding has reduced since Toronto actually got a real center in Poeltl. Kind of logical, not an indication that Siakam has become a worse rebounder lately.

[F Gump]

Also, Siakams rebounding has reduced since Toronto actually got a real center in Poeltl. Kind of logical, not an indication that Siakam has become a worse rebounder lately.

I think that says Siakam never was a premium rebounder -- as you point out, his plus rebounding only happened when the Raps were without a real center. And now that they have a real center, he's nothing special at rebounding. There's no universe in which the Mavs roster-building plans feature a lack of a real center.

I go back and forth on the desirability of PS, but he's easy to overrate. We think of him leading TOR to a title, but that wasn't him. That was Kawhi's title, with multiple good (but not great) helpers including PS.

[omahen]

We think of him leading TOR to a title

Who thinks that??? He was a great number three in their title run and this is exactly the role he would have in Dallas. He was same weak shooter than as he is now.

As for his rebounding, I already showed how much better rebounder he is than our current PF. Maxi alternative, if he ever plays again, was never much better. No one has said Siakam is best rebounder in the world, but he surely improves us a lot in this category.

[Mapka]

Who thinks that??? He was a great number three in their title run and this is exactly the role he would have in Dallas. He was same weak shooter than as he is now.

As for his rebounding, I already showed how much better rebounder he is than our current PF. Maxi alternative, if he ever plays again, was never much better. No one has said Siakam is best rebounder in the world, but he surely improves us a lot in this category.

The problem is, he expects to be paid as a no1.
He is high on my list, but it's not an easy fit.
I understand everybody who doesn't like to take that risk.

[omahen]

The problem is, he expects to be paid as a no1.
He is high on my list, but it's not an easy fit.
I understand everybody who doesn't like to take that risk.

A lot of number three players on contenders got max deals. This is a price if you want to build a contender. Or good luck trying that with the likes of Stewart. My main point is, that even though he would get his max, Mavs would still have plenty of room to build on other positions. How many times have I pointed out the wage structure of contenders. With the exception of OKC (still have to prove if they really are a contender), they all have extremely top heavy rosters. And the fact, that he can walk in the summer and his desire for a max deal are making him actually available for the Mavs. As I said yesterday - you either trade a bunch of assets for a guy on a great salary or you trade lesser assets for a guy that will be perhaps overpaid. If it works out, no one will care that Siakam is overpaid. He will be worth every cent. By trading for him, you actually get a team in a position where excuses are no longer possible.

I get all the arguments about Siakam possibility to walk in the summer. It would be a disaster to trade for him only to watch him walk in half a year. But I don't accept the arguments, that he is not a good player and wouldn't improve Mavs significantly.

[Chicagojk]

The Ringer updated their top 100. I am not one to get worked up by rankings. Siakam is ranked 36. Kyrie is ranked 41 (was ranked 34 last month). Only other Mav is Luka at 4. I don't think Lively is top 100 at this point. But I was going through the last 25 on the list and I would choose him over a lot of those ranked in the 75-100 range right now.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I'll say it again, and nobody will listen, but I'm right: If they trade Hardaway for a non-shooter, they'll have to find a role for Curry/Hardy. They'll have to do that whether they want to or not. 

I think a lot of posters here have been echoing this sentiment, myself included.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

He doesn't fit this roster thoough.  He is a poor 3-point shooter.  In fact, he's shooting less than 30% from 3 this season.  That's really bad.  Would he shoot better playing off Luka?   Probably.  However, that's still a weakness.  It doesn't matter that he was once decent 3-point shooter.  He is now a poor shooter from distance.

I think even beyond whether or not he is a good enough shooter is if he is even open to being a shooter.  When you watch Siakam play, it's a lot of dribble the air out of the ball in the midpost until he gets to his spot and then he just likes to rise up against smaller players.  He won't get those opportunities in our offense (at least with Luka on the floor) and is going to be relegated to starting half court possessions in the corner whether he likes it or not.  I worry about what that role would do to his desire to actually be on this roster because we've seen that exact same story play out with Luka once before already...

[omahen]

I think even beyond whether or not he is a good enough shooter is if he is even open to being a shooter.  When you watch Siakam play, it's a lot of dribble the air out of the ball in the midpost until he gets to his spot and then he just likes to rise up against smaller players.  He won't get those opportunities in our offense (at least with Luka on the floor) and is going to be relegated to starting half court possessions in the corner whether he likes it or not.  I worry about what that role would do to his desire to actually be on this roster because we've seen that exact same story play out with Luka once before already...

My counter to this is, that offense would adjust a bit. It already has - Mavs play a lot faster (a system Siakam would thrive in) and Luka is sharing the ball with Kyrie. KP problem was, that he was terribly inefficient trying to create for himself. That is also one of the reasons Luka (and Mavs in general) were reluctant to pass to him and why Carlisle put him in the corner to pout. Siakam is far better in that regard. Exum and DJJ are not great shooters, but they are thriving with Mavs because of all the space they have with defenses focusing on Luka. Imagine the problems opponents would have guarding Mavs. They have to put a big wing on Luka, because he just demolishes smaller players. So, who will be guarding Siakam? Will they put a center on him and gamble with a smaller player on Lively? As I said many times, I don't think offense will be a problem at all. It never was. Defense and athleticism will improve greatly. I am not sure why all the discussions are focusing on offense, really. Siakam gives us a possibility to reduce Luka centric offense and improve our flexibility and options on offense.

Since Philly has been mentioned a lot as Siakams potential destination. His role there would be exactly the same as in Dallas.

[omahen]

I know I look like number 1 Siakam fan here, due to all the posts. I actually said several times he might not be perfect (and I would prefer Grant), but no number three guy is. My main argument is - if you can get such a good player for so few assets that Mavs have, there is imho really nothing to think about but make it happen.

[Chicagojk]

The Toronto Reddit page is pretty lively. Here are some of their thoughts on Dallas
Offers.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ripcity/s/NV7tfuT6f4


Oops that was the Portland link. Here is the raptors

https://www.reddit.com/r/torontoraptors/s/Dj2e0Kaa5k

[omahen]

Shams says SA is interested in Murray (Atlanta). Would be an interesting pairing of Murray-Wemby with some good pieces around them. They desperately need a PG

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

My counter to this is, that offense would adjust a bit. It already has - Mavs play a lot faster (a system Siakam would thrive in) and Luka is sharing the ball with Kyrie. KP problem was, that he was terribly inefficient trying to create for himself. That is also one of the reasons Luka (and Mavs in general) were reluctant to pass to him and why Carlisle put him in the corner to pout. Siakam is far better in that regard. Exum and DJJ are not great shooters, but they are thriving with Mavs because of all the space they have with defenses focusing on Luka. Imagine the problems opponents would have guarding Mavs. They have to put a big wing on Luka, because he just demolishes smaller players. So, who will be guarding Siakam? Will they put a center on him and gamble with a smaller player on Lively? As I said many times, I don't think offense will be a problem at all. It never was. Defense and athleticism will improve greatly. I am not sure why all the discussions are focusing on offense, really. Siakam gives us a possibility to reduce Luka centric offense and improve our flexibility and options on offense.

Since Philly has been mentioned a lot as Siakams potential destination. His role there would be exactly the same as in Dallas.

Certainly all fair points.  I just worry how much of a role you can really carve out for a third guy in a Luka-centric system is all.  Siakam's salary will probably end up much larger than his actual role here is my big concern.

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Shams says SA is interested in Murray (Atlanta). Would be an interesting pairing of Murray-Wemby with some good pieces around them. They desperately need a PG

Didn't Murray have a lot of negative things to share about his time in SA on his way out or am I misremembering things?

[DanSchwartzgan]

I know I look like number 1 Siakam fan here, due to all the posts. I actually said several times he might not be perfect (and I would prefer Grant), but no number three guy is. My main argument is - if you can get such a good player for so few assets that Mavs have, there is imho really nothing to think about but make it happen.

I think it is GSW or Dallas if he’s moved.  I don’t know what the perfect third ‘star’ looks like anymore.  But availability is the number one criteria.  Right now he seems to be the best player who is available.  He can also be part of solving the backup center thing here, so there’s that.

I put a lot of stock in Chris Haynes reporting on GSW’s interest as I think it comes straight from Chris Paul.  I think GSW can put together a better offer since CP3 is expiring and Kuminga is better than anyone Dallas might offer.  Siakam has the power to sway this if he wants to put his thumb on the scale.  His facilitation skills would be more valuable in GS than they probably would be in Dallas.  For the next two years or so, I don’t see a reason for him to pick Dallas over GSW.  Longer term….that probably favors Dallas, but you never know as Kyrie will age out just like Curry and Thompson.  And Luka isn’t a lock past a certain point either.

So, I think GSW is in the drivers seat right now and Dallas is the backup plan if GSW won’t put what Toronto wants in the package.  I think Nico is probably smart to wait this out.  As I’ve said before, you have to beat competing offers without giving up too much because of the risk of Siakam walking this summer.  It is a fine line that we don’t need to cross when there are other options.

[omahen]

Certainly all fair points.  I just worry how much of a role you can really carve out for a third guy in a Luka-centric system is all.  Siakam's salary will probably end up much larger than his actual role here is my big concern.

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Didn't Murray have a lot of negative things to share about his time in SA on his way out or am I misremembering things?

THJ is taking 14.4 shots per game for Mavs. Siakam is taking 16 for Toronto. I don't think there will be a lack of shots for him.

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I think it is GSW or Dallas if he’s moved.  I don’t know what the perfect third ‘star’ looks like anymore.  But availability is the number one criteria.  Right now he seems to be the best player who is available.  He can also be part of solving the backup center thing here, so there’s that.

I put a lot of stock in Chris Haynes reporting on GSW’s interest as I think it comes straight from Chris Paul.  I think GSW can put together a better offer since CP3 is expiring and Kuminga is better than anyone Dallas might offer.  Siakam has the power to sway this if he wants to put his thumb on the scale.  His facilitation skills would be more valuable in GS than they probably would be in Dallas.  For the next two years or so, I don’t see a reason for him to pick Dallas over GSW.  Longer term….that probably favors Dallas, but you never know as Kyrie will age out just like Curry and Thompson.  And Luka isn’t a lock past a certain point either.

So, I think GSW is in the drivers seat right now and Dallas is the backup plan if GSW won’t put what Toronto wants in the package.  I think Nico is probably smart to wait this out.  As I’ve said before, you have to beat competing offers without giving up too much because of the risk of Siakam walking this summer.  It is a fine line that we don’t need to cross when there are other options.

I don't think GSW with Paul makes much sense. They would still have Draymong at PF. Word from GSW is that they are looking to move Wiggins, as him and Kuminga don't work.

[omahen]

Another thing about Siakam and Toronto. They can pay him more than anyone else, but they would have huge cap problems doing that in two years. Giving Siakam a full max (42) and lets say 20 mil to Quickley would put them at 150 mil for just 10 player. This means letting Trent Jr walk. A season later Barnes will get max extension (only Schroeder and Boucher expire) and they will be at 160 mil for just 8 players. For a team that is not likely to be a contender. So, it is possible Toronto is not interested in giving Siakam a max deal, making it very likely he walks in the summer.

[KillerLeft]

Another thing about Siakam and Toronto. They can pay him more than anyone else, but they would have huge cap problems doing that in two years. Giving Siakam a full max (42) and lets say 20 mil to Quickley would put them at 150 mil for just 10 player. This means letting Trent Jr walk. A season later Barnes will get max extension (only Schroeder and Boucher expire) and they will be at 160 mil for just 8 players. For a team that is not likely to be a contender. So, it is possible Toronto is not interested in giving Siakam a max deal, making it very likely he walks in the summer.

For sure. 

This is why I 100% believe he's moving, unlike past instances wherein he was the center of rumors.