Trade & FA 2023-24: Booker Likes NYK? Vogel Out? Suns Imploding?

[loki]

Could Houston be an option for a THJ trade? They're playing well and it seems like they could use some scoring off the bench. Maybe expirings+picks flipped to a 3rd team? I'd love to engineer a THJ for Brogdon 3-way deal. That allows the Mavs to keep two reliable playmakers on the court at all times like the Luka/Brunson/Dinwiddie days, except Brogdon is a step up defensively. It also opens up minutes for a more defensive-minded wing (if they can find one).

At center I'd just prioritize rebounding and rim protection. I still think Gafford is a guy they should have targeted in the offseason, and he should still be available at the deadline. You're not going to find a stretch 5 that can defend for a reasonable price. I understand not wanting to spend assets on someone who might not factor heavily into the playoff rotation, but you have to get there first.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Watching the Magic play. They could desperately use a shooter like THJ.

Issac is playing 12 minutes per game and is shooting 35% from the field and 19% from three. Oooff. Not really a rebounder or physical presence if we’re reading into Nicos comments.

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As far as physical presence, rebounding big man, Andre Drummond is probably the right cost with Lively here instead of Poetl or Gafford. Never been a fan but he might actually fit now.

I can’t think of too many 4s in the modern NBA that are rebounding physical presence type guys.

[KillerLeft]

It's just (what's the word I'm looking for) to think Nico was talking about the Clipper trash via Sixers when he spoke of rebounding and physicality.  

Love me some Lively, but 'ride or die' with a rookie 19 year old center in the playoffs is not a plan.  It is a prayer.

The goal is to build a competitive team, not a competitive season. Ideally, you’d want the best of both, but the obvious choice in front of the Mavs right now, at least in my opinion, is to maximize their lottery talent center who’s already way ahead of schedule, not send the last few precious assets out for another one. 

I think they KNEW at some point over the summer that Lively was more ready than assumed, and I think that’s why they held off on all the Capela stuff (good choice). I think they KNEW at about that same point that O-Max was a little less ready than we hoped, and that’s why they signed DJJ late. 

Maybe they do want another center, but if so, I sure hope it’s not an expensive starter. That just seems counterproductive in a few ways. 

My hope is that we get to see a full year of how Luka, Williams, Lively, Green, Hardy and hopefully even O-Max look. I’m excited about Irving, Hardaway and DJJ, too, but that first group of 25 and unders needs room and freedom to grow together. That should be the priority. Building synergy and chemistry with the core.

[DanSchwartzgan]

My hope is that we get to see a full year of how Luka, Williams, Lively, Green, Hardy and hopefully even O-Max look. I’m excited about Irving, Hardaway and DJJ, too, but that first group of 25 and unders needs room and freedom to grow together. That should be the priority. Building synergy and chemistry with the core.

Its kind of ironic.  This is exactly how I feel on those days when I think this team was likely a first round out.  Lively/Powell/Maxi are enough.  Watch for a year and let the kids develop. This summer we make our move.  But, on those days when I think the team has a higher ceiling, I want to make a move for a higher level target.  

The optimism centers largely on Lively and the higher I am on him the more I want to fill the rest of the center minutes with better quality.  He won't be ready for a 34 minute role in the playoffs.  Maxi/Powell won't fix our rebounding and PiP issues.  It is like I said yesterday.  We can all debate what position we most need to upgrade.  But, the level of player a person perceives we need (or is willing to pay for) seems tied to what they perceive as the team's upside.  Frankly, no one in the west outside of Denver scares me that much.  Therefore, I'm more willing to give up to get as long as I'm getting the right player.  I don't want a Band-Aid.  I want an addition to the core.

I think there are two conversations going on here.  1. The targeted player conversation.  Someone says Randle and I want to throw up.  I say Poeltl and others don't see it.  Someone says Caruso and I say great.  But how does that prevent points in the paint or help our rebounding?  2.  The thing I mention above regarding upside...the level of player we need conversation.  Maybe its timeline.  Maybe its perceived upside.  Call it what you want.  The biggest change in our outcome would come at the 5 or the 4/5 as long as the 4/5 is a two-position defensive stud (thinking Siakam).  One thing I want to be really careful about is adding players who need the ball to succeed.  It just isn't going to work next to Luka.  So, no need to pay for it.  I think Nico was dead on in identifying the biggest hole we have.  If a proposed name isn't helping with that, it probably isn't the right name.

[omahen]

Its kind of ironic.  This is exactly how I feel on those days when I think this team was likely a first round out.  Lively/Powell/Maxi are enough.  Watch for a year and let the kids develop. This summer we make our move.  But, on those days when I think the team has a higher ceiling, I want to make a move for a higher level target.  

The optimism centers largely on Lively and the higher I am on him the more I want to fill the rest of the center minutes with better quality.  He won't be ready for a 34 minute role in the playoffs.  Maxi/Powell won't fix our rebounding and PiP issues.  It is like I said yesterday.  We can all debate what position we most need to upgrade.  But, the level of player a person perceives we need (or is willing to pay for) seems tied to what they perceive as the team's upside.  Frankly, no one in the west outside of Denver scares me that much.  Therefore, I'm more willing to give up to get as long as I'm getting the right player.  I don't want a Band-Aid.  I want an addition to the core.

I think there are two conversations going on here.  1. The targeted player conversation.  Someone says Randle and I want to throw up.  I say Poeltl and others don't see it.  Someone says Caruso and I say great.  But how does that prevent points in the paint or help our rebounding?  2.  The thing I mention above regarding upside...the level of player we need conversation.  Maybe its timeline.  Maybe its perceived upside.  Call it what you want.  The biggest change in our outcome would come at the 5 or the 4/5 as long as the 4/5 is a two-position defensive stud (thinking Siakam).  One thing I want to be really careful about is adding players who need the ball to succeed.  It just isn't going to work next to Luka.  So, no need to pay for it.  I think Nico was dead on in identifying the biggest hole we have.  If a proposed name isn't helping with that, it probably isn't the right name.

Nico said he would like "someone who plays with physicality, rebounding is always a plus". I don't think this necessarily means a center or even a PF. 

I agree it all depends on where we think this team is. Personally, I don't think we are a center away from being a contender. I think a two way wing is a bigger need. Two way in a sense that he is a great defender

[Mike lorenzo]

I think OG is the answer...they are approaching the FA and the Raptors lost FVV for nothing, will they take the risk again? after all they are not close to being a contender, does OG want to win a championship?..they have a super young stud in Barnes, they are also very poorly built and probably the best thing would be to reorganize... it seems like a risky move because of the nearby FA with similarities to KI... but G.Williams/Hardy/FRP(unprotected)for OG.. After this, look for a movement to consolidate in depth... something like Holmes for Nick Richards/Martin?

[Chicagojk]

I was listening to Thursdays Bill Simmons podcast. They started out with each guest giving a nba big picture storyline. One guest said the Timberwolves were his story.

The other guest said that the super team strategy to build a team may be past and instead you should have a team built around depth. Bill’s big picture story was how size is more important than ever in todays nba. Interesting thoughts that you may or may not agree with, but something to consider as we try to find those last final pieces to the roster over the next year or so.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Nico said he would like "someone who plays with physicality, rebounding is always a plus". I don't think this necessarily means a center or even a PF. 

I agree it all depends on where we think this team is. Personally, I don't think we are a center away from being a contender. I think a two way wing is a bigger need. Two way in a sense that he is a great defender

First, it feels unfair to state as fact that we aren't a 'center away from being a contender' and then go on to state a two way wing is the bigger need.  Based on what?  Are we a 'two way wing' away from being a contender?  Goose/Gander.

Second, what are we trying (or needing) to fix with any addition (and what is the spread between what we have in the spot and what the addition would bring).  Is perimeter D the issue?  We are 13th in 3's allowed and 5th in percentage of points from 3 pointers.  We aren't giving up points at the line.  We are 5th in opponent points from FT's.  Its all coming from 2 points (29th) and specifically from the paint (28th).  To put a non-C/non-PF name to this, I'm not sure Alex Caruso fixes this.  Sure, he does a better job of keeping 'his guy' out of the paint.  What about the other four?

We are getting destroyed on the defensive glass.  We are 26th in Opponent O-Reb% and 25th in total O-Reb's allowed.  Again, does Alex Caruso fix that?  I guess one could substitute OG for Caruso and help the rebounding.  But, there is no way we are trading for a CAA client who can't be extended.  Does DFS help our rebounding and PiP issue?  Probably not.

The data comes from teamrankings.com which is a data site for gamblers.  It is currently projecting us at 4th in the West at 48.7 wins.  We are behind Denver at 58.3, Minnesota at 53.3 and GS at 50.5.  Fifth place is Phoenix at 45.2 wins.    48 wins was my prediction, so I'm in agreement with this.  But, the teams we probably match up with the worst are Denver and Minnesota.  We need a bigger body in those matchups and no people, Drummond is not the answer.

[Winter]

If Nico says "rebounding", we should listen to him. Seriously, what are the chances Lively holds up physically and plays 80 games?

I think one of the reasons Derrick Jones managed to overcome those first two games of the season and still remain in the starting lineup is that he was at least a minor threat in the paint and could rebound a little. If either Lively or Jones gets injured, rebounding and paint defense takes a nosedive. Powell is really decent when playing a small lineup, but doesn't provide anything in the paint. There is no other reliable player to do what Lively does.

[KillerLeft]

Its kind of ironic.  This is exactly how I feel on those days when I think this team was likely a first round out.  Lively/Powell/Maxi are enough.  Watch for a year and let the kids develop. This summer we make our move.  But, on those days when I think the team has a higher ceiling, I want to make a move for a higher level target.  

The optimism centers largely on Lively and the higher I am on him the more I want to fill the rest of the center minutes with better quality.  He won't be ready for a 34 minute role in the playoffs.  Maxi/Powell won't fix our rebounding and PiP issues.  It is like I said yesterday.  We can all debate what position we most need to upgrade.  But, the level of player a person perceives we need (or is willing to pay for) seems tied to what they perceive as the team's upside.  Frankly, no one in the west outside of Denver scares me that much.  Therefore, I'm more willing to give up to get as long as I'm getting the right player.  I don't want a Band-Aid.  I want an addition to the core.

I think there are two conversations going on here.  1. The targeted player conversation.  Someone says Randle and I want to throw up.  I say Poeltl and others don't see it.  Someone says Caruso and I say great.  But how does that prevent points in the paint or help our rebounding?  2.  The thing I mention above regarding upside...the level of player we need conversation.  Maybe its timeline.  Maybe its perceived upside.  Call it what you want.  The biggest change in our outcome would come at the 5 or the 4/5 as long as the 4/5 is a two-position defensive stud (thinking Siakam).  One thing I want to be really careful about is adding players who need the ball to succeed.  It just isn't going to work next to Luka.  So, no need to pay for it.  I think Nico was dead on in identifying the biggest hole we have.  If a proposed name isn't helping with that, it probably isn't the right name.

The level to which the team is ready to achieve now plays no part for me. I might feel differently if I, like you (unless I'm misunderstanding) thought there was a move that could lead to a championship this season, but I just don't believe that. What I'm interested in, mostly, is seeing how close this core is to championship contention now, knowing that they'll continue to improve a TON as they accrue time playing together.  I feel pretty strongly that when you have a team THIS young who is THIS ready to actually compete on a night to night basis (that's where going young almost always fails), there's almost no way you can mess that up. One of the only ways is to start replacing those guys with "win now" types. That should come later, when "win now" is actually a possibility. Grant Williams is a VET LEADER on this team, and dude is like 25. Are you positive he can't become a better rebounder over the course of playing more consistently over the coming seasons? I'm not! 

Agree with much of your last paragraph, except, again, I'm not thinking in terms of fixing this season's team. We literally don't even understand this year's team yet. I think in a general sense, Caruso is a player who fits next to Luka/Kyrie, so I'd be in favor of adding him if the price wasn't bonkers. Replenishing the pile of attractive assets is pretty high on my list, to be sure.

[mvossman]

First, it feels unfair to state as fact that we aren't a 'center away from being a contender' and then go on to state a two way wing is the bigger need.  Based on what?  Are we a 'two way wing' away from being a contender?  Goose/Gander.

I'm going to guess that the point of that statement was not what is best for this season.  The point was that adding a center is not going to make us a contender this season, so the focus should be more long term than spending assets for the short term.  I think most folks would agree that Lively is the long term center solution and that a two way starting caliber defensive wing is more important than a back up center long term.  Would you disagree with that?

[KillerLeft]

If Nico says "rebounding", we should listen to him. Seriously, what are the chances Lively holds up physically and plays 80 games?

I think one of the reasons Derrick Jones managed to overcome those first two games of the season and still remain in the starting lineup is that he was at least a minor threat in the paint and could rebound a little. If either Lively or Jones gets injured, rebounding and paint defense takes a nosedive. Powell is really decent when playing a small lineup, but doesn't provide anything in the paint. There is no other reliable player to do what Lively does.

I do think it would be nice to have a backup for Lively who's more like Lively. But, I don't believe that player needs to be good enough to warrant a guaranteed spot in a rotation. Someone at McGee's level would've been perfect (though not him, obvs). 

Lively, Kleber, Powell AND Holmes are on this team. One of them would almost certainly have to go out to add another center. That's too many already, imho. 

Honestly, I think this is a sudden panic around here only because some are just now figuring out that Holmes isn't going to be a savior. There were some who insisted he'd be the starter just a couple of months ago. Now, we don't even think he can fill in for Lively if he misses some time? 

For me, the problem is Kleber. If he's not healthy and effective, they need to replace him. But, I would replace him with another Kleber, personally, not another Lively. They need to be able to switch on D, if that's what they want. They need to be able to play 5-out, if that's what they want.

[Mapka]

I'm going to guess that the point of that statement was not what is best for this season.  The point was that adding a center is not going to make us a contender this season, so the focus should be more long term than spending assets for the short term.  I think most folks would agree that Lively is the long term center solution and that a two way starting caliber defensive wing is more important than a back up center long term.  Would you disagree with that?

The year we won it all, we had to good centers and a good backup.
I want Lively to be the "starter" and I like Powell/Maxi as the backup.
What we need is that not really a starting center but nearly.
And a big PF.

[KillerLeft]

I think OG is the answer...they are approaching the FA and the Raptors lost FVV for nothing, will they take the risk again? after all they are not close to being a contender, does OG want to win a championship?..they have a super young stud in Barnes, they are also very poorly built and probably the best thing would be to reorganize... it seems like a risky move because of the nearby FA with similarities to KI... but G.Williams/Hardy/FRP(unprotected)for OG.. After this, look for a movement to consolidate in depth... something like Holmes for Nick Richards/Martin?

I think OG makes this team a level better pretty quickly. He is uniquely able to help in both areas of desperate need: 1) helping to cover for Luka/Kyrie on perimeter D and 2) being physical in the paint.  He can play either forward spot - can hang with ball-handlers in a big defensive lineup, and can play bigger than his size in a small ball defensive lineup. 

My only reservations are about what it would COST. Tough for me to come off of assets that could make a big difference in a later deal when I feel like O-Max could be doing all of the above in 2-3 months, or at least by next season.

[juanc]

You don't need to be a center to be able to rebound, but you need to have SIZE and that's the main issue the Mavs have right now IMO.

If the Raptors end up as sellers at the trade deadline, OG would have to be the main target. One of the best defenders in the league, who has size and can shoot 40% from three is all someone could ask for.
Caruso is also nice, but he doesn't fix the size problem IMO.
This team is one defensive meanace away from being a true contender.

[omahen]

First, it feels unfair to state as fact that we aren't a 'center away from being a contender' and then go on to state a two way wing is the bigger need.  Based on what?  Are we a 'two way wing' away from being a contender?  Goose/Gander.

Second, what are we trying (or needing) to fix with any addition (and what is the spread between what we have in the spot and what the addition would bring).  Is perimeter D the issue?  We are 13th in 3's allowed and 5th in percentage of points from 3 pointers.  We aren't giving up points at the line.  We are 5th in opponent points from FT's.  Its all coming from 2 points (29th) and specifically from the paint (28th).  To put a non-C/non-PF name to this, I'm not sure Alex Caruso fixes this.  Sure, he does a better job of keeping 'his guy' out of the paint.  What about the other four?

We are getting destroyed on the defensive glass.  We are 26th in Opponent O-Reb% and 25th in total O-Reb's allowed.  Again, does Alex Caruso fix that?  I guess one could substitute OG for Caruso and help the rebounding.  But, there is no way we are trading for a CAA client who can't be extended.  Does DFS help our rebounding and PiP issue?  Probably not.

The data comes from teamrankings.com which is a data site for gamblers.  It is currently projecting us at 4th in the West at 48.7 wins.  We are behind Denver at 58.3, Minnesota at 53.3 and GS at 50.5.  Fifth place is Phoenix at 45.2 wins.    48 wins was my prediction, so I'm in agreement with this.  But, the teams we probably match up with the worst are Denver and Minnesota.  We need a bigger body in those matchups and no people, Drummond is not the answer.

Mvossman basically summed up what I was trying to say. I wrote "a dissertation" a couple of days ago why I think that, based on early and small sample on/off data. Mavs are being killed in the paint because perimeter defense is so leaky and because we don't really have big wings to guard best big wings, imho. Siakam and company were just posting up our wings and score easily over them. This also leads to a lot of help from centers which are than out of position for rebounding. When they play DJJ the situation is better, but he is limited offensively. That's why a wing that can be at least as good defender as DJJ and better offensively, is what I think Mavs need. 

Nico didn't say rebounding is top priority. He said rebounding is a plus. Number one thing he said is a player that plays with physicality. Examples of such players (just to have a picture what a player that plays with physicality is) are imho Brooks, Smart, Draymond and similar. I don't think Poeltl plays with physicality. He is just big and strong. 

Since you mentioned specific names. I don't think Caruso or DFS are the answer as they are too limited on offense. Sure it would be nice to have any of them, but I don't think they greatly change our ceiling. OG is certainly a great example of what we need, but I think (if) he will be traded, it will be to a place like Philly. Because they are more desperate and will offer more assets Mavs can. But, there are other two-way wings that could become available and we have mentioned them many times.

[mvossman]

I do think it would be nice to have a backup for Lively who's more like Lively. But, I don't believe that player needs to be good enough to warrant a guaranteed spot in a rotation. Someone at McGee's level would've been perfect (though not him, obvs). 

Lively, Kleber, Powell AND Holmes are on this team. One of them would almost certainly have to go out to add another center. That's too many already, imho. 

Honestly, I think this is a sudden panic around here only because some are just now figuring out that Holmes isn't going to be a savior. There were some who insisted he'd be the starter just a couple of months ago. Now, we don't even think he can fill in for Lively if he misses some time? 

For me, the problem is Kleber. If he's not healthy and effective, they need to replace him. But, I would replace him with another Kleber, personally, not another Lively. They need to be able to switch on D, if that's what they want. They need to be able to play 5-out, if that's what they want.

I don't remember a lot of folks insisting Holmes would be a starter.  I think there were some that hoped it would play out that way until Lively was ready.  I'm not convinced based on 7 minute sample that he is completely useless.  He has averaged over 10 rebounds per 36 consistently before a small sample last season.  I would like to see more of him and find it strange that Kidd rarely plays him even when a game is out of reach.  I have no idea why he didn't see the court in that Clippers game.

I think right now the best replacement for Maxi is going small ball with a front court of Williams/DJJ.  Its really not that much of a drop off rebounding wise that Maxi/DFS was.

[KillerLeft]

I don't remember a lot of folks insisting Holmes would be a starter.  I think there were some that hoped it would play out that way until Lively was ready.  I'm not convinced based on 7 minute sample that he is completely useless.  He has averaged over 10 rebounds per 36 consistently before a small sample last season.  I would like to see more of him and find it strange that Kidd rarely plays him even when a game is out of reach.  I have no idea why he didn't see the court in that Clippers game.

A lot? No, and I didn't say that. "Some" is what I said, I think. 

And the rest of this is pretty much exactly my point. 

If you think Holmes has something, then you have to acknowledge that the coach must not think simply adding size and rebounding is the cure for every issue they have right now, because he's consciously not using his second best "traditional" center, right? 

Either way, I just find it funny that fewer than 10 games in the entire board is debating which center to trade for when there's one on the roster we've barely seen so far.

[omahen]

I think OG makes this team a level better pretty quickly. He is uniquely able to help in both areas of desperate need: 1) helping to cover for Luka/Kyrie on perimeter D and 2) being physical in the paint.  He can play either forward spot - can hang with ball-handlers in a big defensive lineup, and can play bigger than his size in a small ball defensive lineup. 

My only reservations are about what it would COST. Tough for me to come off of assets that could make a big difference in a later deal when I feel like O-Max could be doing all of the above in 2-3 months, or at least by next season.

I perfectly agree with the first paragpraph.

But, I just don't see how Omax would come anywhere close to OG in 2-3 months. 2-3 years, perhaps. 

As for assets, for me it is pretty simple. If I believe OG type player is a guy that lifts us to contender status, I don't care how much it costs in terms of assets and salary. There are only so many "OG types" around, and when one becomes available, you get him. Building a team is about putting right pieces together. If you are waiting for years because you want to "win" a trade, Kyrie will be old and Luka might become tired. Then you will have a whole different puzzle to solve. Big three of Luka, Kyrie and serious 2-way wing would be really dangerous with the pieces Mavs have today. More realistic time to get that would be summer imho, not TDL.

Personally, this same core with a good wing and a year older Lively could be serious. I was claiming whole summer, Mavs need a good center and 2-way wing. Lively surprised us all and actually looks pretty close to that good centre we need. This means 2-way wing, the number three guy, is what is missing. DJJ has been much better than expected, at least in some games, but he is imho not the answer. Even his best version.

[SleepingHero]

Watching the Magic play. They could desperately use a shooter like THJ.

Issac is playing 12 minutes per game and is shooting 35% from the field and 19% from three. Oooff. Not really a rebounder or physical presence if we’re reading into Nicos comments.

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As far as physical presence, rebounding big man, Andre Drummond is probably the right cost with Lively here instead of Poetl or Gafford.  Never been a fan but he might actually fit now.

I can’t think of too many 4s in the modern NBA that are rebounding physical presence type guys.

Isaac on paper is the right 4/5 switch defender this team needs.  I just severely doubt he and Kyrie could last in a locker room together. They are diametrically opposed as can be. 

Now Drummond is a dude I've been eyeing for a while. We know the Mavs had interest over the summer. We know they wanted him with one of the exceptions. Drummond is right at the sweet spot of cost and expectation of playing time and skillset. 

I think he could probably be had for less than we imagine. And should the Mavs try and target someone else on the Bulls *cough* Caruso, Drummond could be thrown in pretty easily.