Trade & FA 2023-24: Paul George to Test Free Agency After No Contract Extension

[Mavs2021]

And this is why I don’t think you understand the game of basketball and roster construction. It’s not fantasy basketball. Like the nephews on Reddit, you measure a players impact by their triple slash lines. I have no idea how many points, rebounds, and assists OG Anunoby averaged last year because it’s not important to me to evaluate what he brings to a team.

  You must think Westbrook is one of the GOATs and Christian Wood is a borderline AllStar. Never mind the continued obsession with Mo Bamba or a host of random other spares like Kelly Oubre.

No you don´t understand roster construction. You think you can just plug and play all your advanced stats babies and have a winner. You think that if you put OG Anunony, Grant Williams, Dwight Powell together you have a 50 win starting five. They all feed off your ineffective losing players that have to make it all click by shouldering the responsibility of drawing and living with all the attention. Yeah that might be a 50 win team, if Russell Westbrook runs the show.  

This is not math. It´s still sports.

I just understand that the mix is the deciding factor. That you can´t win with 10 Westbrooks and you can´t win with 10 Anunobys either. You don´t understand that at a certain cost every player has value and that Mo Bamba on a minimum contract or Westbrook/Oubre on 4M is a good deal.

I am not the moron that traded a 1st round pick for Christian Wood. You all said he was the Brunson replacement. We would not miss Brunson at all. You did that. Not me. Your basketball knowledge is to like whatever the MBT likes. 

You basiclally all stanning for the MBT this summer, for their roster construction, when they have been doing what I have been asking for, for about the last ten years. Only for the last decade you said it was dumb, cause the MBT was on their 12 month window/retirement home-strategy.

[Dundalis]

Anunoby is always injured and bitching about touches in Toronto already. That´s a bad idea.

I hope we win the staredown with the Hornets instead. Looked up what the Cavs paid for Markkanen. It was a lottery protected 1st from Portland (Bulls are still waiting for that to convert and doesn´t look like that will happen any time soon LOL)  and a 2nd. 

If we can flip THJ + McGee for Washington + Oubre + Mykhailiuk for that, you do it. I know complicated to do with our stupid pick situation, but that seems fair value to me.

I actually like going back in for PJ. The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that GW at 6'6 is going to eventually become a matchup nightmare (for us) in starter minutes at the 4. He literally was often for Boston, it's why he wasn't a starter, and why he even got pushed right out of the rotation in the playoffs. Everyone focuses on how well he did playing on some bigger NBA stars and not on the matchup problems he cause the Celtics because he's an undersized PF without the quickness to guard down much and who can still get overwhelmed by much bigger 4/5's despite how well he defends up. And that's on a Celtics team with way better wing defenders than Dallas has (which you would think means his inability to guard down well shouldn't have been as much of an issue as it absolutely could be here).

PJ has played for a garbage team his whole career, and last season was asked to be a primary scorer when Ball and Oubre Jnr went down, which obviously isn't an ideal role for him. He has some playmaking skills, has proven he can score efficiently when he isn't required to take on a primary scoring role (58% TS in 21-22), and I could see him having career years here where he is actually surrounded by good players getting wide open looks, and isn't asked to play a role beyond his capabilities. He's also bigger, more athletic and a better fit as a starter at the 4 than GW is.

A 5 like Allen would still be best case scenario, but if you aren't going to give up the pieces they are likely to want then IMO a move like this shores up the 4 spot much better going into the season without a reliable starting big. A GW/Holmes, GW/Powell starting lineup I think could be a much bigger issue in terms of completely lacking any front court size than some people think.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I saw this on Discord and thought it was smart….

Mav’s seconds including a 2028 was strategic.  It allows us to trade a lightly protected 2027 first that converts to a 2028 second that we now have.  The poster said LAL did something similar. 

mavsfan7Today at 7:57 AM
Anyone else think we made sure to get a 2028 second rounder so we could deal our 27 if needed in a trade with lottery protection or top 10 protections and if it doesn’t convey it turns into that 2028 second? The Lakers did that this year with their 27 pick being too 4 protected otherwise it turns into a second rounder. Makes me think they wanted a that option in case something comes up so we don’t have to leave ourself open to an unprotected pick

[Jason Terry]

I saw this on Discord and thought it was smart….

Mav’s seconds including a 2028 was strategic.  It allows us to trade a lightly protected 2027 first that converts to a 2028 second that we now have.  The poster said LAL did something similar. 

mavsfan7Today at 7:57 AM
Anyone else think we made sure to get a 2028 second rounder so we could deal our 27 if needed in a trade with lottery protection or top 10 protections and if it doesn’t convey it turns into that 2028 second? The Lakers did that this year with their 27 pick being too 4 protected otherwise it turns into a second rounder. Makes me think they wanted a that option in case something comes up so we don’t have to leave ourself open to an unprotected pick

Yes it’s a good idea. I like it paired with a protected 2028 pick swap as well

[omahen]

I saw this on Discord and thought it was smart….

Mav’s seconds including a 2028 was strategic.  It allows us to trade a lightly protected 2027 first that converts to a 2028 second that we now have.  The poster said LAL did something similar. 

mavsfan7Today at 7:57 AM
Anyone else think we made sure to get a 2028 second rounder so we could deal our 27 if needed in a trade with lottery protection or top 10 protections and if it doesn’t convey it turns into that 2028 second? The Lakers did that this year with their 27 pick being too 4 protected otherwise it turns into a second rounder. Makes me think they wanted a that option in case something comes up so we don’t have to leave ourself open to an unprotected pick

Minor detail. According to article below, Lakers are actually sending the 2027 SRP if the 2027 FRP doesn't convey. So it seems, that condition can basically include anything or nothing. Just a matter of negotiations.

Lakers/Jazz/Wolves Trade Notes: 2027 Pick, Westbrook, Conley, TPEs | Hoops Rumors

[omahen]

The 27 pick is our last decent asset.

Only for this season. Next year we have 2024 or 2025 and 2031. 

Of course I agree the uprotected pick is valuable, but I don't have problems trading it. I like PJ, but don't see a perfect fit on current roster (I don't believe moving GW to bench is an option). 

I really have a lot of dilemma about the value of a single UFA. Looking back, the high level 2nd or 3rd best starters like Murray and JRue cost 3 (mostly) unprotected picks. Solid starter level players like Derrick White, AAron Gordon and similar cost around a protected FRP. Lakers traded (lightly) protected FRP to dump Westbrook and get three rotation players (none of them exactly worked well for them). Point is, there is really not much in between. Anyone remembers a trade of a single unprotected FRP, other than Mavs trading for Kyrie? Poeltl was traded for top 7 protected pick, Brogdon protected 1-12, Huerter lottery protected. Closest one was perhaps Jerami Grant, who was traded for 1-4 protected pick. 

So, you can save the pick for next season or split the pick. I would be more inclined to split the pick this season and bring in two players that can actually help you get to play-offs and be in your play-off rotation. A center and another (bench) wing. For example THJ and "half of 2027 pick" for someone like Capela and Holmes and second "half of 2027 pick" for someone like O'Neale. Dump McGee with 2 SRP to OKC for some of those excess youngsters. I could "survive" if they wait until TDL for this move. I only hope they won't build too big of a hole. 

I think Mavs are done, though. Other than moving McGee, which I hope they will not just dump (no value in dumping, his contract could be needed in a trade). Even if the hold up would be Holmes - if they would have something lined up, they could announce it (and likely would be leaked), only to be formally concluded in September. I think more likely version is, that talks are reopened in September, when Holmes can be aggregated. Of course Mavs likely already have an idea, what can be done in September. But things change.

[omahen]

I am sort of impressed how much draft capital you can get for a pick that is already swapped.

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1680603594842578944

[omahen]

Suns very active. I don't get the Cam Payne trade - traded Payne and SRP to SA for SRP. Also signed Bol

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1680603465431633926

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1680603380945764353

[Jmaciscool]

Suns very active. I don't get the Cam Payne trade - traded Payne and SRP to SA for SRP. Also signed Bol

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1680603465431633926

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1680603380945764353

I don't understand that either. Is it some kind of tax savings move?

[Jym]

I don't understand that either. Is it some kind of tax savings move?

Saves $6.5 mil in salary and $26.4 mil in luxury tax

[KillerLeft]

This is the part of every off-season, both good ones and disappointing ones, that sucks the most. It seems to happen every year.

We feel like there could potentially be ONE MORE MOVE, and slowly, we all accept the idea that it will never come. At this point, it seems clear that the news is over, at least until September, but I find myself checking Twitter and the board five times a day hoping to see something fun breaking. Kind of a drag.

[rocky164]

This is the part of every off-season, both good ones and disappointing ones, that sucks the most. It seems to happen every year.

We feel like there could potentially be ONE MORE MOVE, and slowly, we all accept the idea that it will never come. At this point, it seems clear that the news is over, at least until September, but I find myself checking Twitter and the board five times a day hoping to see something fun breaking. Kind of a drag.

Boy do I agree with this!  Training camp can’t get here soon enough!!

[omahen]

From Stein:
- Mavs still hoping Atlanta wins a race for Siakam and that Capela is included
- Mavs willing to participate in Wood SnT, if it is presented with such scenario

https://substack.com/inbox/post/134985121

[KillerLeft]

From Stein:
- Mavs still hoping Atlanta wins a race for Siakam and that Capela is included
- Mavs willing to participate in Wood SnT, if it is presented with such scenario

https://substack.com/inbox/post/134985121

A huge confirmation and a huge development, imo. I have a hard time imagining a Wood S&T for several reasons, but it’s good to know they’re at least open to it.

[Tyler]

THJ/McGee for Capela. Wood for Vanderbilt. Nico for GM of the Year.

[mvossman]

No you don´t understand roster construction. You think you can just plug and play all your advanced stats babies and have a winner. You think that if you put OG Anunony, Grant Williams, Dwight Powell together you have a 50 win starting five. They all feed off your ineffective losing players that have to make it all click by shouldering the responsibility of drawing and living with all the attention. Yeah that might be a 50 win team, if Russell Westbrook runs the show.  

This is not math. It´s still sports.

I just understand that the mix is the deciding factor. That you can´t win with 10 Westbrooks and you can´t win with 10 Anunobys either. You don´t understand that at a certain cost every player has value and that Mo Bamba on a minimum contract or Westbrook/Oubre on 4M is a good deal.

I get the concept that statistics, including advanced statistics is not the whole story and there are a lot of other factors.  But it seems strange to see you bash advanced statistics when you use simple counting stats to back up a lot of your arguments.

[Mavs2021]

I get the concept that statistics, including advanced statistics is not the whole story and there are a lot of other factors.  But it seems strange to see you bash advanced statistics when you use simple counting stats to back up a lot of your arguments.

Seems more like the other way around. "Normal" stats don´t account for anything. I´m pretty sure Oubre could also average 5 PPG on 64% TS, if he was into such a thing. He´d simply never shoot and just dunk/lay-up the ball three times a game. Now he´s a winning player?

My whole argument is that if we lose THJ in a center trade, then we need another scorer. Oubre is the best option left, unless you want to re-visit Wood. 

What if Kyrie goes down with an "injury", which he does every year. Who steps up as the #2 scoring option/creator besides Luka? 

Oubre might not be ideal, but he´s a good stop gap solution. 

Also when THJ arrived in Dallas, his career shooting percentages were virtually the same as Oubre right now.

 Who is to say the Mavs coaching staff and playing off Luka/Kyrie can´t have the same effect on Oubre as they did on THJ?  

I´d give him $4M to find out.

[KillerLeft]

My whole argument is that if we lose THJ in a center trade, then we need another scorer. Oubre is the best option left, unless you want to re-visit Wood. 

I actually don’t hate this logic. I kind of agree with this, unless you’re in the camp that believes Hardy is about to have a breakout season. His summer league didn’t do much to bolster my confidence of that, though I’m still a believer.

[mvossman]

Seems more like the other way around. "Normal" stats don´t account for anything. I´m pretty sure Oubre could also average 5 PPG on 64% TS, if he was into such a thing. He´d simply never shoot and just dunk/lay-up the ball three times a game. Now he´s a winning player?

By advanced stats I'm talking about comprehensive stats like EPM, DPM and (for boxscore only) BPM.  Those all take into account volume.  Josh Green had TS of 65, but all of those stats say he is a poor offensive player.  They also say Oubre is a poor offensive player (in his case due to lack of efficiency) and also a poor defender (which screams low BBIQ given his size and athleticism would suggest otherwise).  Those same stats say Timmy is a good offensive player while average defender, which is why I struggle with why the are trying to dump him in the first place.

I get the idea of trying to recoup some offense if Timmy is traded out, but to make a non stats based argument, it seems like the FO has been focused on surrounding Luka with younger, high BBIQ, high character guys, and I'm not sure Oubre fits that description. 

Besides, Timmy is still here at the moment, and I am not convinced he won't still be here at the start if the season, meaning no need to replace his offense.  I also think the mindset is they are replacing his offense with a combination of Curry and Hardy taking another step.  That may or may not be wishful thinking, but the reality is this team was really good on offense and really bad on defense last season and even with all of the moves leaning towards deense, my guess is the offense is still better than the defense right now by a fair margin.

[SleepingHero]

From Stein:
- Mavs still hoping Atlanta wins a race for Siakam and that Capela is included
- Mavs willing to participate in Wood SnT, if it is presented with such scenario

https://substack.com/inbox/post/134985121

Well there might not be any reason for the Lakers to do this, but there was a lot of smoke in their interest for Wood a couple of weeks back.

What if Wood is emphatically against playing anywhere for the minimum? If you're the Lakers do you make a SnT happen just to guarantee the big man is yours? The only piece the Lakers can feasibly trade for the money to work would be Vando. They did just sign Prince, who by all accounts plays a very similar role to Vando and can hit threes at a better rate. 

Is there anything there? For me, the idea of a Wood for Vando swap gets me giddy. It'd be a coup, which also makes me think it's highly unlikely for it to happen. Especially since the Lakers could just sign Wood outright for the minimum. But if Wood is emphatically against a minimum contract, maybe the Lakers could be motivated to just get the deal done because of Wood's talent.