Trade & FA 2023-24: Paul George to Test Free Agency After No Contract Extension

[DallasMaverick]

Hard to assume that Lively will be ready in 2 years. He's talented and the chance is there, but I doubt that he can be a championship caliber center in 2 years.

Poeltl is closer to that and he's worth a first. If Lively does somehow turn into that, then great, we can either flip Poeltl for someone or Lively for even more.

After listening to Cuban, I'm think they are planning for Holmes to be the starter.

I also think they want to get Lively consistent playing time, whether with the Mavs or their G-league team.  Just helps accelerate his development.  And who knows?  Maybe he can earn 20 minutes a night.

[DallasMaverick]

Although if I have Luka + Kyrie, and I'm trying to win this year, I'd rather not go into a season full of maybes

Every season, every team, every position is full of maybes.  Get used to it.

For a team to win a championship, a bunch of maybes have to line up exactly right.

[Smitty]

After listening to Cuban, I'm think they are planning for Holmes to be the starter.

I also think they want to get Lively consistent playing time, whether with the Mavs or their G-league team.  Just helps accelerate his development.  And who knows?  Maybe he can earn 20 minutes a night.

I agree. Add that to the "Powell was brought back to mentor Lively and be a backup center". I think they roll with Holmes, Kleber, Powell and see what it looks like until the TDL.

An inevitable injury to Kleber gives OMax and Lively more developmental minutes.

[KillerLeft]

I'm glad you see how I feel about the pick. I made my feelings very well known about Lively. I am 100% sure the Mavs feel the opposite right now, and I could very well be wrong, but what I saw in Summer League hasn't exactly changed my mind.

The potential is definitely there. The idea of Lively is exactly what the Mavs need. I also tried to walk back my doom and gloom outlook to give the guy a fair chance against real NBA players. That hasn't changed. I'm trying to be as optimistic as possible, but I think Lively is a big project.

And I don't think he's good enough to forego getting a starting center that can play 30mpg because it could stunt his development. 

Like I said, I'm going to give it time and see how he looks with a maestro in the PnR. Maybe that's all he needs.

Sure, but…IF they felt like you feel they’d have not picked him. 

That’s why it’s ridiculous to expect a big Ayton trade, imho. They literally did this INSTEAD of that.

We’re not hoping they get in on Dame, why? Because they just traded for and re-signed Kyrie. Not a perfect comparison, I know, but the situations are the same, functionally.

You can’t expect them to decide they were wrong before the season even starts. It’s ridiculous for US to think they were wrong at this point, honestly. Every second of Lively’s summer league play has looked LESS raw than I expected, not more. He hasn’t been slowed down by all that terrible weight the dinosaurs have yet. He’s still quick and fast. You say he won’t be able to play for four years? I say four years might be the only window of time he has before he slows down and turns into a dinosaur. If I’m the Mavs, I’m praying he’s able to contribute by the end of THIS YEAR.

[SleepingHero]

Every season, every team, every position is full of maybes.  Get used to it.

For a team to win a championship, a bunch of maybes have to line up exactly right.

What "maybes" are the Nuggets going into the season with? "Maybe Bruce Brown was the difference maker?"

What about the Celtics? "Maybe Porzingis is all that we needed and he can stay healthy?"

Heat? "Maybe this team will finally get over the hump if the Dame trade goes through?"

I'd take those maybes vs. "Maybe this team doesn't have a clear cut starting center and that's ok"

I posted every teams starting center a little but back and outside the Hornets the Mavs have clearly the worst one. I love Powell. We can all point to stats of how good he is for the team. All I see is a talent deficiency at a position we've been clamoring to upgrade since Tyson left.

[KillerLeft]

Let’s get some things straight:

1) if you can get to the playoffs with Kleber healthy and ready to give you 15-20 minutes per night (ideally more) you’re already better off at center than MOST of the teams you’re gonna play. AT THAT POSITION, he’s quick, fast and fairly smart. He can defend iso, he can switch and hang with most players in space, he can defend the rim, he plays hard. Ayton does NONE of that.

2) if your team isn’t built around a superstar center (Jokic, Embiid, Giannis), then the VERY LAST THING you want is a “30 minutes per starter” at center, because those guys get PAID. And it is factual that they will be your Achilles heel, defensively.

Which means…

3) center by committee is a good thing. It’s SMART.

[mvossman]

Agreed on doubting about this situation. But just to keep the conversation going, I think where you and I differ is the likelihood that Lively will develop linearly and be ready by year 3. After watching him in summer league, I see a very raw guy. One that needs some time, maybe 4 years time. 

But then again this is all conjecture. Maybe all Lively needs is a good PG to set him up and he'll look a lot better. Maybe he gets the hang of NBA defenses and learns the tricks of the trade so he doesn't foul out. 

Although if I have Luka + Kyrie, and I'm trying to win this year, I'd rather not go into a season full of maybes

Yeah, we are of a couple of different thoughts.  I think Lively has the physical tools, the proper instincts and a high motor both on the court and off (work effort).  That is the recipe for somebody to be a high level defender early in their NBA career.  The offensive side will probably take more time, but I don't think that is necessary for him to see significant time on the court.

I also don't look at this year as a contention year.  I feel like it was more of a reset.  The team is better than last season, but even more importantly it has a much brighter long term outlook.  I think the plan is to get back to the playoffs while also developing the young guys.  In that light, I am more willing to be patient regarding the center position in seeing what we have.  I am probably more of a believer in Holmes than most on here.  I think there is a reasonable chance he can provide a quality 20-25 minutes.  If we sent out a first for a starting center, we are probably tanking any value we have in Holmes.  I would rather keep the first round pick for now and see what we have in Holmes and Lively.  If we feel like we could be a legit contender at the TDL with a starting center (and don't think we have one) then we can look into make a move for another center.

[KillerLeft]

Jesus, I don’t even think Capela would play 30 minutes here. MAYBE 25.

KLEBER IS CLOSING GAMES!

Know who would close games if Ayton played here? KLEBER!

[mvossman]

Speaking of that topic, I’ve been thinking a bit about lineups and I’ve come to the conclusion that the closing lineup is going to be Maxi/GWill/Josh/Kyrie/Luka.  Picks for Luka can come from anywhere (in fact I like Williams’ potential to set picks with Maxi camped in the corner), They all shoot well from outside.  Everyone can pass well on the short roll and until Lively/OMax are ready, this is as much D as you can put on the floor at any given time.  I suspect we’ll return to being a good clutch team.

That accounts for 10-12 of Maxi’s minutes (closing halves).  I suspect he’ll get his other 10-12 minutes supporting Lively when Lively is int he game.  My guess is Holmes lands the starting center spot.  We need to see what we have with him and rehab his reputation and value.  Powell is a Swiss Army Knife and will always be ready when called upon.

This is exactly where I am at.  One of the best things about getting Williams is that it means we can use Maxi where he is most useful (small ball center) for most of his time on the court.

[Scott41theMavs]

Re: the SH/KL Lively debate: I think that what you're missing out on big time, SH, is what popped to me the most about Lively in the SL games so far - this kid is smart. He learns and adjusts quickly. If he is mentored by TC (and DP, eye roll) for the next two months, I think we'll be seeing a much better player in the pre-season based on that alone. My prediction is that he's getting 20 mpg by the end of the season (not overall season average, hell no), and making quite an impact when he is on the court.

As far as how they're viewing the season, once again, I do not have high hopes for the Luka/Kai pairing. Do I think they could mesh together and make it work, especially if surrounded by good defenders? Of course. Does Kidd have the skills to do it? Oh hell no. This team making the playoffs this year hinges on a mid-season coaching change. Hope Nico has the stones to do it.

[KillerLeft]

This is exactly where I am at.  One of the best things about getting Williams is that it means we can use Maxi where he is most useful (small ball center) for most of his time on the court.

I’ll go one step farther…in addition to freeing Kleber up for more 5, Grant Williams will be an UPGRADE over him at the 4. I know you know his game, but I think some people are just looking at his stats and choosing to be underwhelmed. 

Newsflash: his former team’s TWO BEST PLAYERS are forwards. 

He is EXACTLY what this team needs, all the way down to the spots on the floor where he feels comfortable shooting. He’s a GREAT defender. Not good - GREAT. 

MOST Celtics fans I know are pissed, because their defensive, switching identity is what has fueled their success these past several years. Not only have they just lost their TWO BEST DEFENDERS, but they can’t even be a switching team anymore because of the ridiculous mistake to infect their team with the slow mediocrity of Porzingis. Talk about “maybes”…I think Boston will be significantly worse than they have been, recently.

[F Gump]

Toronto traded for Poeltl and just gave him a contract. I see no way they are even thinking about trading him, unless Mavs are offering Luka.

They definitely aren't, even if Mavs offered Luka! Because they can't. He's not trade eligible until Jan 15., with new BYC deal and all.

But I find the underlying thesis (that Masai is going to trade for players he doesn't want, and clog his roster) to be fairly absurd in the first place. Teams will know what he paid. They won't want to pay him to be the middle man. And then, when he has multiple huge deals tying up his payroll, what will he do? I just don't buy it at all, and the source is obviously suspect already.

[F Gump]

After listening to Cuban

I wouldn't consider that a reliable source. He'll tell you what he wants you to hear, in the moment. His reliability in what he says isn't anything he worries about, and I don't think we should take his words any more seriously than he does -- which is to say, not at all.

[Scott41theMavs]

I wouldn't consider that a reliable source. He'll tell you what he wants you to hear, in the moment. His reliability in what he says isn't anything he worries about, and I don't think we should take his words any more seriously than he does -- which is to say, not at all.

I just hope he didn't take your direct rebuttal personally. 

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

One thing I think people are overlooking as they see the Mavs with money remaining in the MLE like it's burning a hole in their pocket, is how valuable it will be on the buyout market late in the season.

Not only will a number of teams be prevented from signing bought out players, but many teams will either be way in the tax or won't have any MLE money remaining to offer something over the minimum.

Look at some of the names I came up with who could be had this year if the Mavs just hold their water:

Gordon Hayward
Royce O'Neale
Kelly Olynyk
Alec Burks
Mike Conley
Cedi Osman

Possibly if dealt at the deadline
Tobias Harris
Buddy Hield

[KillerLeft]

One thing I think people are overlooking as they see the Mavs with money remaining in the MLE like it's burning a hole in their pocket, is how valuable it will be on the buyout market late in the season.

Not only will a number of teams be prevented from signing bought out players, but many teams will either be way in the tax or won't have any MLE money remaining to offer something over the minimum.

Look at some of the names I came up with who could be had this year if the Mavs just hold their water:

Gordon Hayward
Royce O'Neale
Kelly Olynyk
Alec Burks
Mike Conley
Cedi Osman

Possibly if dealt at the deadline
Tobias Harris
Buddy Hield

This is one of the reasons I think they’ll find a way to dump McGee at the very least.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

The unprotected 1st round pick swap in 2030 is potentially a hefty price to pay for a role player. You’re literally talking about the #1 pick that could go to the Spurs here if Luka isn’t here anymore by then. we certainly did not „steal“ Grant Williams. That picks swap has very high upside get for the Spurs. 

I think this is a good point and it pertains to the Capela price.  I see them as similar level players.  If you had to give up that valuable asset for Grant Williams, I seriously doubt you are getting Capela for 2nd rd picks.  (never mind take McGee also and give us a young player in the deal)

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I'm glad you see how I feel about the pick. I made my feelings very well known about Lively. I am 100% sure the Mavs feel the opposite right now, and I could very well be wrong, but what I saw in Summer League hasn't exactly changed my mind.

The potential is definitely there. The idea of Lively is exactly what the Mavs need. I also tried to walk back my doom and gloom outlook to give the guy a fair chance against real NBA players. That hasn't changed. I'm trying to be as optimistic as possible, but I think Lively is a big project.

And I don't think he's good enough to forego getting a starting center that can play 30mpg because it could stunt his development. 

Like I said, I'm going to give it time and see how he looks with a maestro in the PnR. Maybe that's all he needs.

I agree with you.  I dont see this is as a successful summer if we go into the season with

maybe Holmes was just terrible because of his family situation
maybe Lively can be ready two years sooner than anyone thinks
maybe Maxi will be actually be healthy

Too many maybes for a team that wants to at least be a playoff team right now.  

We also haven't seen much discussion about the McMahon nugget about Thybulle would have started over Josh Green if Portland had let him go.  I'm still not sure the Mavs are as high on Josh Green as everyone assumes.  Grant Williams might be your third best starter or at least in the running and he was an 8th man/out of the rotation for an actual good team.

The maneuvering the Mavs have done this summer has been pretty nice but the product on the floor still looks quite underwhelming.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

  I think Lively has the physical tools, the proper instincts and a high motor both on the court and off (work effort).  That is the recipe for somebody to be a high level defender early in their NBA career.  The offensive side will probably take more time, but I don't think that is necessary for him to see significant time on the court.

You can say the exact same things about Josh Green.  Same age coming into the league.  Great athlete.  Great makeup. Underwhelming performance his one year in college.  Considered raw.  

People are acting like since the 12th pick is a "lottery" pick, he should contribute a lot sooner than the 18th pick.  I don't see much difference.  I also don't have the same read that the Mavs expect him to contribute right away since they spent such a high pick on him.  He was the only defensive center left on the board where the Mavs were picking.  No other options if you wanted a young big man to develop.

I expect a similar developmental timeline for Lively as Josh.

[Kidnova]

I agree with you.  I dont see this is as a successful summer if we go into the season with

maybe Holmes was just terrible because of his family situation
maybe Lively can be ready two years sooner than anyone thinks
maybe Maxi will be actually be healthy

Too many maybes for a team that wants to at least be a playoff team right now.  

We also haven't seen much discussion about the McMahon nugget about Thybulle would have started over Josh Green if Portland had let him go.  I'm still not sure the Mavs are as high on Josh Green as everyone assumes.  Grant Williams might be your third best starter or at least in the running and he was an 8th man/out of the rotation for an actual good team.

The maneuvering the Mavs have done this summer has been pretty nice but the product on the floor still looks quite underwhelming.

I don't know that I'd read too much into Thybulle starting.  He'd be on the floor when Luka/Kyrie were out there together, so having a lock down on-ball defender makes a lot of sense.  Green is a good defender, but he's not on Thybulle's level.  Still plenty of minutes for Green and Hardy coming off the bench in that scenario.  It's also possible that the Mavs saw Green as a valuable trade piece if Portland hadn't matched.  Either way, I'm not sure it reflects all that much on how the Mavs view Green as a player.