Trade & FA 2023-24: Paul George to Test Free Agency After No Contract Extension

[speedkilz88]

[KillerLeft]

Honest question, if you knew they had no way of getting Grant Williams or PJ Washington with the MLE but had this opportunity to sign Thybulle but only to the full MLE, would you rather them not spend it?  Genuinely curious because I share the same concerns as you (and also thought highly of Frank and always felt he shot well enough that he should have gotten more burn but that's neither here nor there) but I also think that if a player on a full MLE contract is what we are considering our bad deals then I would say that we've come along way from some of the mistakes we used to make when it came to that sort of thing.

Right now I'm thinking, it's not my money and it doesn't hinder us THIS offseason from making other moves than why not, feels like a somewhat safe gamble but I know there are long term ramifications that I'm probably not thinking of.

Yes, I’d not spend it in that scenario. Or, I’d break it up and sign 2-3 cheaper guys. 

I’ll go one step further: While THJ is not popular and everyone knows how much I hate Bullock’s defense (the most overrated aspect of Mavs basketball for the past couple of seasons), if I had to bet my life, I’d suggest that we’re about to learn that both of those guys are more winning players than Thybulle when both sides of the court are balanced. Shooting is the most valuable skill there is next to a guy like Luka, for whom it behooves you to create space, and those two guys are PLAYABLE in game 5 of a playoff series, when the other team knows every wrinkle to your offensive system. They will hold defenders above the break…in the corner. Thybulle will not.

[Mavs2021]

He´s Australian. Can´t he sign the offer sheet already. It´s the 6th there for a while now.

[dirkfansince1998]

The on court numbers. There's a reason they were fine with giving him big minutes during the tank

Let's just say I trust Josh Green to play good defense without much help a bit more than I trust Thybulle after seeing those numbers. Sure his on ball defense is great which will bring fans to his side, but he's not going to transform your defense

Defensive on/off

2023: 76ers -8.3
          Portland -2.4
2022: -4.2
2021: -1.5
2020: -1.3

Consistent net positive on defense. Despite his role as the go to defender against the best opposing guard/wing. Meaning that most of his playing time overlaps with the best opposing players.

19th in D-RAPM  (+1.23)
21th in D-Raptor (+2.5)
5th among SGs in DRPM (+3.39)

As far as impact metrics and +/- go he is one of the best non bigs in the league.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I’m not giving him the 4 year max MLE for sure. $50 million for him would be crazy.

Can we give him 2 year MLE and retain his rights at the end?

[SleepingHero]

Thybulle’s defense isn’t the problem. There are too many people whom I respect greatly swearing that he’s a defensive difference maker for me to be skeptical about that. But again, Ntilikina made a difference on that end, too. Pushing back against that point with “but Thybulle is so much better than Ntilikina on defense” doesn’t really address the worry. Frank’s D was plenty helpful, and he was on a team that needed defensive help every bit as much as this year’s version will.

Kidd never learned to trust him on the offensive end, so they couldn’t play him. To this point, that has been the same, sad story of Thybulle’s career.

Ntilikina was a good swing at the minimum. Thybulle at the MLE, with raises, for a few years, guaranteed??? Sorry, I’m just not a believer in that level of risk. I’m not as sure about this as I am about some things, but I am telling you there is a very real chance that this dude is completely out of the rotation a year from now and they are having to try to dump his contract.

On offense, Frank literally had zero offensive game. He couldn't finish a layup, shoot a shot, or even create for others. 

His career average FG% is 37.1%  Thybulle's: 44.7% 

Career average threes: 32.3% vs. 33.4% 

I'm not going to try and make the argument that Thybulle is a good offensive player and will flourish next to Luka+Kyrie. But he isn't as bad nor as flawed as a guy like Frank at all. He is not an offensive player, but did this team need any more offense? After the trade they averaged 117.5 points a game. His defensive impact alone assures he will never be totally out of a rotation.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Defensive on/off

2023: 76ers -8.3
          Portland -2.4
2022: -4.2
2021: -1.5
2020: -1.3

Consistent net positive on defense. Despite his role as the go to defender against the best opposing guard/wing. Meaning that most of his playing time overlaps with the best opposing players.

19th in D-RAPM  (+1.23)
21th in D-Raptor (+2.5)
5th among SGs in DRPM (+3.39)

As far as impact metrics and +/- go he is one of the best non bigs in the league.

The problem is our head coach (and most head coaches) don’t set the lineups based on these numbers. Josh Green got benched when he had a lull in confidence. Thybulle has the same lack of confidence in his shot problem as Green, except worse. He had no pressure on a tanking team in Portland. If an analytics guy was setting the lineups, maybe I’d be more confident in Thybulle.

[Mavs2021]

Now rumours floating that the Thybulle contract starts around $8M.

Here is a thought. Maybe they are trying to engage Portland in a Bullock deal. Maybe they can flip him to a contender for a 2nd later in the season or he helps broker the Lillard trade.

S&T Thybulle for Bullock, you actually reduce overall pay-roll by $2.5M. Keep $4M of the MLE for a one year deal to beat out vet minimum offers.

There are still some interesting names out there.

Barton
Oubre
Bamba
Diallo
Nunn
Winslow
Jones Jr.
Knox
Biyombo
Rivers
Bazley
Warren
Harrell
BolBol
Mykhailiuk
Ntilikina
Gabriel
A. Lamb
Azubuike
W. Hernangomez

Probably all players that would/will have to consider borderline minimum offers in the next few weeks. So might not be a bad idea to leave a little more than the minimum to sweeten the deal. Although selling them on the opportunity to earn their next contract will obviously be a huge factor.

[BigDirk41]

Portland matches at 8 million and then we just wasted a bunch of time.

[F Gump]

So with that in mind, I assume Portland is going to want a little something in return for letting Thybulle walk, even if he's overpaid.

You don't always get what you want. It sounds like DAL will be submitting an offer sheet, which will only leave POR 2 choices: to match, or not match. They won't get extra freebies for not matching. And he would get a no-trade for a year if they match.

[Kidnova]

You don't always get what you want. It sounds like DAL will be submitting an offer sheet, which will only leave POR 2 choices: to match, or not match. They won't get extra freebies for not matching. And he would get a no-trade for a year if they match.

Right, if it gets to the point of signing the offer sheet.  I assume the point of Thybulle's team (or the Mavs) leaking this today is to give Portland and Dallas time to see if there's a SnT scenario that benefits both teams.  If not then he signs the offer sheet and POR has a decision to make.

[KillerLeft]

$8 million is better than $12+ million. Still an overpay, but a good development. I don’t think Portland matches.

[RDB]

What makes you say this?  The Portland fan base online feels otherwise but maybe there's more people on this board who watched the last 22 games of the Dame-less Portland TrailBlazers than I realize....

It’s always interesting to see what the other team fans are saying.  It seems the consensus on Blazers Edge is they want the team to match.  Mostly split on whether it is an overpay but for those in the overpay camp, most thought it was only slight.

Surprisingly, I didn’t notice any posts proposing Frank as his replacement.

Edit: This was prior to this latest talk about $8M. If true, I think they 100% match.

[audiosway]

On offense, Frank literally had zero offensive game. He couldn't finish a layup, shoot a shot, or even create for others. 

His career average FG% is 37.1%  Thybulle's: 44.7% 

Career average threes: 32.3% vs. 33.4% 

I'm not going to try and make the argument that Thybulle is a good offensive player and will flourish next to Luka+Kyrie. But he isn't as bad nor as flawed as a guy like Frank at all. He is not an offensive player, but did this team need any more offense? After the trade they averaged 117.5 points a game. His defensive impact alone assures he will never be totally out of a rotation.

I feel like what Dallas sees in him is that when he was traded to Portland his percentages went up as a result of playing with Dame. Playing with 2 distributors in Luka and Ky should give him a ton of open looks. If he can hit 37% from like he did with Dame and play All Defensive level on that side he would be a huge upgrade from anything currently on the roster. Even if he moves the ball to the next open man the threat of him being able to shoot should help. DFS wasn't a knock down shooter but people had to respect him.

[Knutsen]

I feel like what Dallas sees in him is that when he was traded to Portland his percentages went up as a result of playing with Dame. Playing with 2 distributors in Luka and Ky should give him a ton of open looks. If he can hit 37% from like he did with Dame and play All Defensive level on that side he would be a huge upgrade from anything currently on the roster. Even if he moves the ball to the next open man the threat of him being able to shoot should help. DFS wasn't a knock down shooter but people had to respect him.

Problem is: didn’t he play with great creators in Harden, Embiid and even Maxey in Philly? So he basically got open shots all his life. I‘m not against the signing, just thinking the situation with the Sixers wasn’t that different to ours.

[JamesConway912]

Highly doubt you can keep Thybulle on the court in a playoff game. Ben Simmons-syndrom. Spacing just goes to waste.

I can’t say I’m high on Grant Williams but I’d much rather try to open up the rest of the MLE and throw an offersheet at Boston than to do so with Thybulle. 

PJ Washington would be my nr 1 choice among all three but I don’t see us having the assets to get him in a SnT. Too many bad contracts.

[MrGoat]

Defensive on/off

2023: 76ers -8.3
          Portland -2.4
2022: -4.2
2021: -1.5
2020: -1.3

Consistent net positive on defense. Despite his role as the go to defender against the best opposing guard/wing. Meaning that most of his playing time overlaps with the best opposing players.

19th in D-RAPM  (+1.23)
21th in D-Raptor (+2.5)
5th among SGs in DRPM (+3.39)

As far as impact metrics and +/- go he is one of the best non bigs in the league.

And why didn't you post Green's numbers in comparison? Because that was the point I was making. Is his defense really good enough to justify taking minutes from Green?

Thybulle with Portland: defensive rating 116.4 (better than Portland's 118.0 defensive rating as a team but he dragged their offense down under 110 so he was still an overall negative)

Green with Dallas: defensive rating 112.8 (Dallas as a team was 116.1)

Both defenses were putrid. But Green making Dallas' defense -3.3 better is better than the -2.4 better you have listed for Thybulle. 

I would much rather add someone with size who could realistically slide up to at the least the 4 spot than just have Thybulle come in and either take minutes from Green lowering his potential value in a trade or being so bad he's glued to the bench like Frank was (not unlikely, either). I'll just be on record kind of hoping Portland matches

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Where are folks seeing the 8M number? Would make sense since that's what's left if you convert Seth into an MLE signing

[SleepingHero]

Problem is: didn’t he play with great creators in Harden, Embiid and even Maxey in Philly? So he basically got open shots all his life. I‘m not against the signing, just thinking the situation with the Sixers wasn’t that different to ours.

I wouldn't call Maxey nor Embiid a creator. 

Ben Simmons+Harden were definitely great creators but the issue with Simmons was his lack of shot kind of overlapped with Thybulle and only further stagnated their offense.

Harden was probably the best creator out of the bunch, but Thybulle only shot 1 three a game. Hard to draw any conclusions on that small a sample size. For example, Green during his rookie year was quite awful at the 3 but he barely shot them. 

Thybulle doubled his attempts and his efficiency hit career highs. That alone should be promising. Although again I'm not putting any expectations on Thybulle's contributions offensively. That's like getting a water gun and expecting it to be able to provide adequate home defense. It could but is that really how it's best used?

Thybulle's ability to get blocks+steals and his general activity on the defensive end will radically transform this team.

Look at him move around here against the Lakers. He hounds Russell, prevents a multitude of drives, and lets Portland get plenty of transition buckets. 

[mvossman]

And why didn't you post Green's numbers in comparison? Because that was the point I was making. Is his defense really good enough to justify taking minutes from Green?

Thybulle with Portland: defensive rating 116.4 (better than Portland's 118.0 defensive rating as a team but he dragged their offense down under 110 so he was still an overall negative)

Green with Dallas: defensive rating 112.8 (Dallas as a team was 116.1)

Both defenses were putrid. But Green making Dallas' defense -3.3 better is better than the -2.4 better you have listed for Thybulle. 

I would much rather add someone with size who could realistically slide up to at the least the 4 spot than just have Thybulle come in and either take minutes from Green lowering his potential value in a trade or being so bad he's glued to the bench like Frank was (not unlikely, either). I'll just be on record kind of hoping Portland matches

You are using a 22 game sample for a guy that got traded mid season and had to learn a new team.  There is a lot of noise with on/off numbers and you want a big sample.  The original post showed his career impact, which takes out most of the noise.  He is legit.  Green is a promising young defender, but I don't think he is in Thybulle class.