Trade & FA 2023-24: Booker Likes NYK? Vogel Out? Suns Imploding?

[HoosierDaddyKid]

https://www.si.com/nba/suns/analysis/for...y-williams





Detroit could land Cam Johnson.

[Bayliss]

Ayton is basically Dorothy's companions all rolled into one. No heart, courage or brains.

I wouldn't want him if he was only paid 1/3 of what he is making. You can't win with guys like him.

And that doesn't even take into consideration his skills on the court. And those skills make him make him unplayable in today's game for big minutes.

[Chicagojk]

What scares me is with Ayton, aren't we in a similar spot that the Suns are currently in? I guess except we would have 4 youngsters that PHX doesn't have anything close similar.

I viewed the remaining move(s) as a tough physical guy who can defend multiple positions as the last move. Without knowing if that move was available, it makes it hard to say if Ayton is the right move. I viewed a move like Grant Williams while keeping your pick and maybe THJ for a final move over the next year. I think I still prefer that route, but not sure if that tough physical wing/PF is available for what I would pay.

[haveitall]

What scares me is with Ayton, aren't we in a similar spot that the Suns are currently in?  I guess except we would have 4 youngsters that PHX doesn't have anything close similar. 

I viewed the remaining move(s) as a tough physical guy who can defend multiple positions as the last move.  Without knowing if that move was available, it makes it hard to say if Ayton is the right move.  I viewed a move like Grant Williams while keeping your pick and maybe THJ for a final move over the next year.    I think I still prefer that route, but not sure if that tough physical wing/PF is available for what I would pay.

Trey Lyles?

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

What scares me is with Ayton, aren't we in a similar spot that the Suns are currently in?  I guess except we would have 4 youngsters that PHX doesn't have anything close similar. 

I viewed the remaining move(s) as a tough physical guy who can defend multiple positions as the last move.  Without knowing if that move was available, it makes it hard to say if Ayton is the right move.  I viewed a move like Grant Williams while keeping your pick and maybe THJ for a final move over the next year.    I think I still prefer that route, but not sure if that tough physical wing/PF is available for what I would pay.

I've been saying this all along.  Why would we not only help them get out of their predicament, but then trade places into said predicament?

[Chicagojk]

Trey Lyles?

He is an interesting name.  I don't think he is full MLE though.  I also think if Barnes leaves Sac, Sacramento plan is probably a FA and then hope to resign Lyles...I think.

[SleepingHero]

What scares me is with Ayton, aren't we in a similar spot that the Suns are currently in?  I guess except we would have 4 youngsters that PHX doesn't have anything close similar. 

I viewed the remaining move(s) as a tough physical guy who can defend multiple positions as the last move.  Without knowing if that move was available, it makes it hard to say if Ayton is the right move.  I viewed a move like Grant Williams while keeping your pick and maybe THJ for a final move over the next year.    I think I still prefer that route, but not sure if that tough physical wing/PF is available for what I would pay.

I don't think the Mavs are anywhere close to where PHX is in terms of being top heavy with talent. They have a starting 4, Cam Payne, and Wainwright. That's their roster right now and they're over the tax. 

Mavs have the young core termed by Kidd, Maxi, THJ, Bullock, McGee, and possibly Kyrie and they're slated to be about 13 mil under the tax. 

In terms of desperation I'd say PHX is much higher on that scale vs. Dallas. 

I find it curious why many around here lambasting the Ayton deal are assuming that Holmes can 1) actually be a contributing player given he was just jettisoned off for literally air. 2). Actually be played during the playoffs.

Ayton can be your starting center for every game. Even if we assume he has to be benched every game in the last 5 minutes when a team goes small, is that not the plight of literally every center save the epitome of the position and the 1-2 whose skills prevent them from suffering that fate?

If you're not Bam, Jokic, Embiid, AD, you're going to be benched no matter what when teams go small. I'd much rather have a starting center that can (and will) give me at least 15-20 a night with 10 rebounds for 30 minutes vs. jerry rigging this damn position like we've been doing for the past 12 years. Not to mention whose age fits right alongside that young core.

[dirkfansince1998]

What I LIKE about the proposed Ayton deal:

1) Holmes (and hopefully McGee) are outgoing. If Holmes isn’t outgoing, I flatly don’t bring another 5 onto the roster. Period.

2) Ayton’s body type, athletic profile and ability to play as a pick and roll big make him a good fit here (in theory).

The problems:

1) anyone who calls him “skilled” is off-base, imho. He has no offensive iso game, in the post, or otherwise. That’s FINE with me, because this is a pick and roll team. However, is HE fine with that? He seems like another Porzingis to me - a guy who will want the ball in situations wherein it does not benefit the team for him to have it. Does the way he’s feeling about that sort of thing have an impact on his enthusiasm to run the floor, set good screens and move his feet on defense? Sure looks that way to me.

2) he’s PAID like he DOES have an iso game on offense, that’s for sure. Again, he does not. This is NOT a player who you can tell “go make something happen out there for the next three minutes while Luka sits” and yet his cap number reflects the need for him to be that guy. And again, i think he sees himself in that light, so not ideal.

You know what type of 6’11”, 7’ guy works in the modern NBA? The kind who moves like he’s 6’7”, 6’8”. Ayton COULD be that guy, but has demonstrated time and again that his motor isn’t up to it. He literally just got a coach fired, and now his team is trying to dump him on a sucker. If he comes here, there will be times he’s effective enough to change the complexion of the team and games, for sure. But mark my words: IN THE LAST 5 MINUTES OF AN ELIMINATION PLAYOFF GAME, HIS ASS WILL BE ON THE BENCH. Sorry, not interested in that for anything north of the MLE.

Looking at Ayton´s individual performance we are two years removed from a playoff run that had most fans and media talking heads discussing how many DPOY awards he would collect in his career. He was doing it all. Switching onto the perimeter. Defending the post. Protecting the rim. Against the best possible competition. The last guy that at least slowed down Jokic. Dominating AD. Taking away LBJ´s and PG´s matchup hunting with his ability to switch onto them.

Defensive matchup numbers from that run. Defended by Ayton...

Giannis 34/67 FG 50.7%
Jokic 27/64 FG 42.2%
AD 12/32 FG 37.5%
LeBron 9/27 FG 33.3%
PG 6/21 FG 28.6%
Lopez 7/20 FG 35%

And now the difficult question. How do you compare a 22 game sample size of a highly motivated Ayton playing some of the best bigmen defense we have seen over the last 10 years vs a two year sample size of low energy, lack of focus and mediocre impact.
Is it the usual delusional pipe dream of fans and teams that player x/y/z was stuck in a bad situation and will turn back into his best version once he leaves the toxic environment. Or is it realistic to assume that Ayton can be the player we saw during the 20/21 playoff run?

[KillerLeft]

I find it curious why many around here lambasting the Ayton deal are assuming that Holmes can 1) actually be a contributing player given he was just jettisoned off for literally air. 2). Actually be played during the playoffs.

I’m assuming neither of those things. He was the price of getting OMAX, and I hope he can contribute A LITTLE. I have no illusions about him making a serious impact or being on the floor to close games.

Without OMAX, he wouldn’t be here.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Looking at Ayton´s individual performance we are two years removed from a playoff run that had most fans and media talking heads discussing how many DPOY awards he would collect in his career. He was doing it all. Switching onto the perimeter. Defending the post. Protecting the rim. Against the best possible competition. The last guy that at least slowed down Jokic. Dominating AD. Taking away LBJ´s and PG´s matchup hunting with his ability to switch onto them.

Defensive matchup numbers from that run. Defended by Ayton...

Giannis 34/67 FG 50.7%
Jokic 27/64 FG 42.2%
AD 12/32 FG 37.5%
LeBron 9/27 FG 33.3%
PG 6/21 FG 28.6%
Lopez 7/20 FG 35%

And now the difficult question. How do you compare a 22 game sample size of a highly motivated Ayton playing some of the best bigmen defense we have seen over the last 10 years vs a two year sample size of low energy, lack of focus and mediocre impact.
Is it the usual delusional pipe dream of fans and teams that player x/y/z was stuck in a bad situation and will turn back into his best version once he leaves the toxic environment. Or is it realistic to assume that Ayton can be the player we saw during the 20/21 playoff run?

Wait, are you pulling his numbers from the playoffs 3 seasons ago vs the shitting of pants he showed the last two playoffs?  How do you think that's valid?

[ThisIStheYear]

https://www.si.com/nba/suns/analysis/for...y-williams





Detroit could land Cam Johnson.

$25 million per for Cam would be a good signing. I’d bet the Nets match. Wish the Mavs could get him instead of Ayton for Hardaway plus Holmes.

[SleepingHero]

I’m assuming neither of those things. He was the price of getting OMAX, and I hope he can contribute A LITTLE. I have no illusions about him making a serious impact or being on the floor to close games.

Without OMAX, he wouldn’t be here.

If you aren't assuming either of those things, then the Mavs currently have no starting center. Or you're relying on a rookie to come in and be able to contribute day 1, with McGee+Holmes covering. 

To me, that center position almost rivals last years and has an argument for being worse. 

So then I posit, out of the starting centers that are apparently available:
Allen, Capela, Valanciunas, Poeltl, Ayton, Vucevic, Lopez, Plumlee

Which would you target? And 2nd, how much do you weigh the assumed increased cost for guys like Allen, Poeltl, Capela, and Valanciunas would be over Ayton's relatively low buy in?

Cause to me the answer is clear. Ayton for THJ+air is an infinitely better deal (and has a higher likelihood of being able to be flipped later for better assets) than trying for Capela, Allen, or Valanciunas, whose teams would likely demand 1 of the members of the young core as mandatory in a deal.

I assume Poeltl is out of our price range. Lopez+Vucevic should be in the price range but given the rumors Lopez is likely to be money whipped by Houston and Vucevic is staying in Chicago.

[ThisIStheYear]

Ideal starter until Lively is ready.

---

Excellent analysis.  I completely agree.

We're better off with a flex F/C who could eventually start next to Lively.

Sure, that’s preferable, but would I rather have THJ and Holmes or Ayton plus a low paid end of bencher for the same money? I honestly don’t think THJ and Holmes have anything to offer by way of contributing to a championship team, so that’s an easy choice for me. The only pause I really have is whether Ayton would be a progress stopper for Lively, and I can almost talk myself into the idea of playing them together for 10 minutes so they both get starter minutes.  If that mythical flex is available, that’s great, otherwise, a young, talented, and athletic big for just Holmes and THJ, count me in.

[Mavs2021]

If you aren't assuming either of those things, then the Mavs currently have no starting center. Or you're relying on a rookie to come in and be able to contribute day 1, with McGee+Holmes covering. 

To me, that center position almost rivals last years and has an argument for being worse. 

So then I posit, out of the starting centers that are apparently available:
Allen, Capela, Valanciunas, Poeltl, Ayton, Vucevic, Lopez, Plumlee

Which would you target? And 2nd, how much do you weigh the assumed increased cost for guys like Allen, Poeltl, Capela, and Valanciunas would be over Ayton's relatively low buy in?

Cause to me the answer is clear. Ayton for THJ+air is an infinitely better deal (and has a higher likelihood of being able to be flipped later for better assets) than trying for Capela, Allen, or Valanciunas, whose teams would likely demand 1 of the members of the young core as mandatory in a deal.

I assume Poeltl is out of our price range. Lopez+Vucevic should be in the price range but given the rumors Lopez is likely to be money whipped by Houston and Vucevic is staying in Chicago.

Valanciunas. Expiring and imho the best leader out o the bunch. Question is what does NO want?

[KillerLeft]

If you aren't assuming either of those things, then the Mavs currently have no starting center. Or you're relying on a rookie to come in and be able to contribute day 1, with McGee+Holmes covering. 

To me, that center position almost rivals last years and has an argument for being worse. 

Correct.

The difference between you and me is that you think the Mavs will be a competitive team in THIS SEASON’S playoffs with Ayton, or maybe a better way of phrasing it is that you’re trying to find a way for them to compete NOW, hell or high water.

I am not burdened by that hurdle. 

Once you wrap your head around the idea that there’s most likely no way for them to compete this season (too many mistakes over the past few summers) then I THINK you’ll be where I am - ready for another potential down year (maybe not THAT down) but with a reasonable expectation that at this time NEXT year, things will seem more possible. More hopeful. More fun. 

Ayton kills all of that for me, because I view him as a cap clogging dead end. Just like what I said about Porzingis right after Portland taught us how useless he is during that game in the bubble.

[dirkfansince1998]

Wait, are you pulling his numbers from the playoffs 3 seasons ago vs the shitting of pants he showed the last two playoffs?  How do you think that's valid?

Is there any reason to believe that a 24 year old player is already declining and can never reach his peak level again? It´s a gamble NBA teams make all the time. That´s why I asked the questions below. Is it reasonable to assume that he can produce that level again on another team (new coach, system, teammates) or is his recent level all we can expect for the rest of his career?

[KillerLeft]

Is there any reason to believe that a 24 year old player is already declining and can never reach his peak level again? It´s a gamble NBA teams make all the time. That´s why I asked the questions below. Is it reasonable to assume that he can produce that level again on another team (new coach, system, teammates) or is his recent level all we can expect for the rest of his career?

Pretty expensive buy in to find out.

[Mavs2021]

Is there any reason to believe that a 24 year old player is already declining and can never reach his peak level again? It´s a gamble NBA teams make all the time.

Exactly. You just got to pick out the correct players.

[SleepingHero]

Correct.

The difference between you and me is that you think the Mavs will be a competitive team in THIS SEASON’S playoffs with Ayton, or maybe a better way of phrasing it is that you’re trying to find a way for them to compete NOW, hell or high water.

I am not burdened by that hurdle. 

Once you wrap your head around the idea that there’s most likely no way for them to compete this season (too many mistakes over the past few summers) then I THINK you’ll be where I am - ready for another potential down year (maybe not THAT down) but with a reasonable expectation that at this time NEXT year, things will seem more possible. More hopeful. More fun. 

Ayton kills all of that for me, because I view him as a cap clogging dead end. Just like what I said about Porzingis right after Portland taught us how useless he is during that game in the bubble.

Ah I see. You and I differ definitely in terms of the Mavs ability to compete this upcoming season.

I think any team with a prime Luka Doncic, and above average talent in at least 2 positions, has the chance to win regardless of who is in front of the team. 

The Mavs were a Kevon Looney stopper away from going to the finals 2 years ago. They've since added the most potent iso scorer of the last 10 years and are on the precipice of adding a legit 15+ppg 10+rpg center who's under 25 and you doubt that they can compete?

This all hinges on the idea that Kyrie doesn't be Kyrie. At least we both agree on Kyrie.

[dirkfansince1998]

Pretty expensive buy in to find out.

Obviously wouldn´t give up any future assets but if all it takes is THJ, Bullock and McGee I would be tempted. Basically only leaves the last year of his contract as a big salary hit.