Trade & FA 2023-24: NOP Will Not Give Ingram an Extension

[SleepingHero]

I'm also going to go out on a limb here and conjure up a weird 3-team deal.

PHX receives: Kristaps+McGee+Bullock+Morris

DAL receives: Ayton+Kispert

WAS receives: Bertans+CP3+#10

Washington basically does this because they want to rebuild. S/W both CP3 and Bertans saves them almost $40 mil in cap space right there. They could create enough space to resign Kuzma to a 4/120 deal and still be 30 mil below the 1st apron.

[Nowitzki Way]

if the trade is #10 / Bertans / McGee for #15 / Collins then I'm all the way in.

We could still have a shot at Lively. If not then you have your pick of Miller, Coulibaly, Hood-Schifino, Hawkins.  Or maybe we take a chance on one of these super scoring combo guards like Nick Smith, Keyonte George, or Bufkin.

Or what could you do with #15? Could you trade down again and pick up another piece while unloading Bullock or THJ?  Maybe something with Brooklyn for #21 or #22.

If we're adding Green to Bertans then its a no. Maybe Bullock/Bertans but i'd rather unload Javale.

[SkenfromLMF]

if the trade is #10 / Bertans / McGee for #15 / Collins then I'm all the way in.

We could still have a shot at Lively. If not then you have your pick of Miller, Coulibaly, Hood-Schifino, Hawkins.  Or maybe we take a chance on one of these super scoring combo guards like Nick Smith, Keyonte George, or Bufkin.

Or what could you do with #15? Could you trade down again and pick up another piece while unloading Bullock or THJ?  Maybe something with Brooklyn for #21 or #22.

If we're adding Green to Bertans then its a no. Maybe Bullock/Bertans but i'd rather unload Javale.

I would charge ATL a premium to get off of Collins contract.
Dallas sends 10 to Brooklyn; McGee and Bertans to ATL
Atlanta sends 15 & Collins to Dallas; 46 to Brooklyn
Brooklyn sends 21 & 51 to ATL; 22 to DAL

Atlanta moves down 6 slots in the first and 5 in the second rounds to save $2.6 million this coming year, $4.6 in 24-25, and $26.58 on Collins PO in 25-26 IF they pay the total on Bertans' contract. Savings are incrementally more if they do not fully guarantee Bertans in 24-25 and S/W him this season.
Brooklyn gets market value to move up using their two first round picks.

[JamesConway912]

Collins played the worst season of his career, right now his value is at an all time low. I don’t see how acquiring him should justify moving down so many spots.

Bertans‘ contract = sunk cost anyway. We shouldn’t lower the value of #10 bc of his deal.

Yuck.

Remember when we tried to move up for Haliburton by using our spare players? Nobody fell for our lowball offer, neither should we.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

ATL is the one that's desperate to move up and get off Collins. No shot Green is included in any fashion. Collins contract is also much worse than Bertans. There has to be more here for Dallas

I think the simplest deal for all parties is 10+Bertans+McGee+Reggie for 15+Collins+Okongwu 

Hawks save about 500k next year in salary and have the potential to save a crap ton more if they S/W Bertans or Reggie. Essentially a get out of cap hell free card given and they get a nice party gift of moving up 5 spots.

Agreed.  Collins contract is a killer in the new CBA.  Okongwu is due a new contract.  By moving up to 10 the Hawks could get Lively and press reset on a lot of future money.

[SkenfromLMF]

Collins played the worst season of his career, right now his value is at an all time low. I don’t see how acquiring him should justify moving down so many spots.

Bertans‘ contract = sunk cost anyway. We shouldn’t lower the value of #10 bc of his deal.

Yuck.

Remember when we tried to move up for Haliburton by using our spare players? Nobody fell for our lowball offer, neither should we.

Not sure you were responding to my proposal but...
Ironically, Dallas would be short of the value of trading 10 for 21 & 22, so netting 15 & 22 reflects an increase in assets for Dallas at the cost of adding Collins.
From Brooklyn's perspective 10 and flipping 51 for 46 is just shy (10 pts) of the value for 21 & 22.

IF you wanted more - arrange the trade of Bullock to BRK in lieu of McGee and have BKN ship DFS to ATL.
AFTER THE DRAFT - 7/1 or later
DAL - S&T Wood to ATL/McGee to BRK
Atlanta sends either DFS or Bey to Dallas with Capela
BRK sends Bullock to ATL (NG/Waive - Dallas could then sign Bullock back as BRK did not waive him)

THJ would also likely be involved as trade matching becomes much more restrictive after July 1st for teams over the TAX and APRONS.

[SleepingHero]

https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status...2506328067

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

OK, I've retooled my defensive model to be position-less, but weight production based upon profiles of what you want out of a position.  Here's what I have for Center.  I'll also do a profile for Center-Forward, Forward-Center, Forward, Forward-Guard, Guard-Forward, and Guard.

Center Profile:
19% -- Paint-Dfg%
8% -- Paint-Missed FGs
13% -- Mid-Dfg%
6% -- Mid-Missed FGs
11% -- 3pt-Dfg%
3% -- 3pt-Missed FGs
6% -- Defensive Loose Balls Gained
2% -- Charges Drawn
7% -- Defensive Box-outs Resulting in Team RB
17% -- Defensive Rebounds
6% -- Blocks
2% -- Steals
*Each of the above categories is normalized by a multiplier equal so that the league's best is 100.00
Note: this is position-less.  It rates the player's production in the categories and weights of above.  These are players classified as C, C-F, and F-C.


1 - Anthony Davis - 30yo, F-C, 78.73
2 - Joel Embiid - 29yo, C-F, 75.16
3 - Brook Lopez - 35yo, C, 73.09
4 - Rudy Gobert - 30yo, C, 72.99
5 - Nikola Jokic - 28yo, C, 72.58
6 - Nic Claxton - 24yo, C, 72.37
7 - Kristaps Porzingis - 27yo, F-C, 71.61
8 - Jaren Jackson Jr. - 23yo, F-C, 71.25
9 - Evan Mobley - 21yo, C, 70.28
10 - Ivica Zubac - 26yo, C, 69.88
11 - Domantas Sabonis - 27yo, F-C, 69.87
12 - Steven Adams - 29yo, C, 68.49
13 - Jarrett Allen - 25yo, C, 68.19
14 - Myles Turner - 27yo, C-F, 67.86
15 - Nikola Vucevic - 32yo, C, 67.53
16 - Walker Kessler - 21yo, C, 67.29
17 - Jusuf Nurkic - 28yo, C, 66.82
18 - Karl-Anthony Towns - 27yo, C-F, 64.96
19 - Deandre Ayton - 24yo, C, 64.38
20 - Clint Capela - 29yo, C, 64.35
21 - Alperen Sengun - 20yo, C, 64.14
22 - Jakob Poeltl - 27yo, C, 63.91
23 - Mitchell Robinson - 25yo, C-F, 63.74
24 - Robert Williams III - 25yo, C-F, 63.61
25 - Bam Adebayo - 25yo, C-F, 63.46
26 - Lauri Markkanen - 26yo, F-C, 63.03
27 - Al Horford - 37yo, C-F, 62.82
28 - Jonas Valanciunas - 31yo, C, 62.18
29 - Julius Randle - 28yo, F-C, 62.16
30 - Wendell Carter Jr. - 24yo, C-F, 61.89
31 - Zach Collins - 25yo, F-C, 61.8
32 - Onyeka Okongwu - 22yo, F-C, 60.94
33 - Mark Williams - 21yo, C, 60.28
34 - Daniel Gafford - 24yo, F-C, 59.65
35 - Mason Plumlee - 33yo, F-C, 59.5
36 - Jalen Duren - 19yo, C, 58.95
37 - Kelly Olynyk - 32yo, F-C, 58.84
38 - Isaiah Hartenstein - 25yo, C-F, 58.45
39 - Isaiah Stewart - 22yo, F-C, 58.29
40 - John Collins - 25yo, F-C, 58.16
41 - Naz Reid - 23yo, C-F, 56.03
42 - Drew Eubanks - 26yo, F-C, 55.94
43 - Bismack Biyombo - 30yo, C, 55.44
44 - Kevin Love - 34yo, F-C, 53.72
45 - Nick Richards - 25yo, C, 53.31
46 - Larry Nance Jr. - 30yo, F-C, 53.1
47 - Jalen Smith - 23yo, F-C, 52.86
48 - Charles Bassey - 22yo, C-F, 52.74
49 - Santi Aldama - 22yo, F-C, 51.99
50 - Bol Bol - 23yo, C-F, 51.63
51 - Dean Wade - 26yo, F-C, 51.16
52 - Kai Jones - 22yo, C-F, 51.03
53 - Damian Jones - 27yo, C, 50.93
54 - Dwight Powell - 31yo, F-C, 50.7
55 - Mo Bamba - 25yo, C, 50.32
56 - Christian Koloko - 22yo, C, 50.24
57 - Andre Drummond - 29yo, C, 49.99
58 - Chris Boucher - 30yo, F-C, 49.79
59 - Jock Landale - 27yo, C, 49.55
60 - Jalen McDaniels - 25yo, F-C, 49.54
61 - Mike Muscala - 31yo, F-C, 49.18
62 - Goga Bitadze - 23yo, C-F, 49.14
63 - Dewayne Dedmon - 33yo, C, 48.8
64 - Thomas Bryant - 25yo, C-F, 48.77
65 - DeAndre Jordan - 34yo, C, 48.69
66 - Jericho Sims - 24yo, C, 48.48
67 - Moritz Wagner - 26yo, F-C, 48.31
68 - Luke Kornet - 27yo, C-F, 47.67
69 - Day'Ron Sharpe - 21yo, C, 46.75
70 - James Wiseman - 22yo, C, 46.35
71 - Bruno Fernando - 24yo, F-C, 46.23
72 - Sandro Mamukelashvili - 24yo, F-C, 45.76
73 - Dario Saric - 29yo, F-C, 45.32
74 - Chimezie Metu - 26yo, F-C, 44.83
75 - Montrezl Harrell - 29yo, F-C, 44.53
76 - Willy Hernangomez - 29yo, C-F, 44.1
77 - Gorgui Dieng - 33yo, C, 43.97
78 - Zeke Nnaji - 22yo, F-C, 43.77
79 - Orlando Robinson - 22yo, C, 43.51
80 - Jaxson Hayes - 23yo, C-F, 42.82
81 - JaMychal Green - 32yo, F-C, 40.32

My apologies to Myles Turner.  He's a much better defensive big than I previously stated.

[Chicagojk]

Some hawks fans thoughts

https://www.reddit.com/r/AtlantaHawks/co...urce=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=2&utm_term=1

[StepBackJay]

https://medium.com/mavsforum/mavericks-m...82ba12a94c

[Scott41theMavs]

https://medium.com/mavsforum/mavericks-m...82ba12a94c

Who wrote that piece? Terrible take.

[StepBackJay]

Who wrote that piece? Terrible take.

You are terrible

[Scott41theMavs]

You are terrible

Oh, it's yours? Heh. No, I'm 100% out on moving down out of that draft position for Collins - possibly could justify it if Hendricks and Black are off the board.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Oh, it's yours? Heh. No, I'm 100% out on moving down out of that draft position for Collins - possibly could justify it if Hendricks and Black are off the board.

IMO, #10 is a sweet spot in the draft for trading out if a hyped player or two falls.  History tells you at least one of A.Thompson, Hendricks, Black, Whitmore, or George will fall.  If Hendricks falls to 10, you take him.  All other scenarios, especially if Black falls, there will be great value in trading out.  I think Lively is at least 3 years out, making him not a good pick for us, unless he drops into the 20s.  Everything else I just don't see a great fit 10-15.

---

https://medium.com/mavsforum/mavericks-m...82ba12a94c

Given his plummeting performance last year, his contract, and the finger that won't heal, Collins is of negative value in a trade.  Hard pass.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

With all of the moving parts that may be happening in POR Nurkic could be a great solution for the right price.

[Jason Terry]

Collins is a risk, but we need to be risky for several reasons. Capela would be ideal, but i think Atlanta is set on Collins being moved.

I can’t decide if Collins or Ayton is a worse idea

[BigDirk41]

Collins is a risk, but we need to be risky for several reasons. Capela would be ideal, but i think Atlanta is set on Collins being moved.

I can’t decide if Collins or Ayton is a worse idea

I'd prefer Collins over Ayton especially if it's a low cost move.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

IMO, #10 is a sweet spot in the draft for trading out if a hyped player or two falls.  History tells you at least one of A.Thompson, Hendricks, Black, Whitmore, or George will fall.  If Hendricks falls to 10, you take him.  All other scenarios, especially if Black falls, there will be great value in trading out.  I think Lively is at least 3 years out, making him not a good pick for us, unless he drops into the 20s.  Everything else I just don't see a great fit 10-15.

---

Given his plummeting performance last year, his contract, and the finger that won't heal, Collins is of negative value in a trade.  Hard pass.

Collins has the same if not worse value as KP did last year.  And what did KP fetch?  Bertans on a worse contract and a vet (Dinwiddie) whose value had dipped.  THE MAVS were the ones who gave up a draft pick (because of course).

In no way do I give up the 10th pick in a 14 player draft for a guy averaging 13 pts and 6 rebs.  

Atlanta is over a barrel moneywise already being close to the 2nd apron even before extending Bey and Okongwu.  If they want to move off Collins' long-term money, they need to give up draft capital.

I massage the discussed Jazz/Hawks 3-way and add the Pacers

Mavs get - Collins, Turner, 28, 29 and 46
Hawks get - Bertans, Bullock, 26 and 31
Jazz - Hardaway and 10
Pacers - Olynyk, Kleiber, McGee, 15 and 16

[Jason Terry]

How about:

Hawks get:
Bertans
Bullock
10

Mavs get:
Collins
Jalen Johnson
15
46

Maybe Johnson develops a shot. But we need cheap depth if we add Collins. It’s a negative contract or neutral at best. The Hawks are in a bad spot, so we need to take advantage of that and get the best value

[DanSchwartzgan]

How about:

Hawks get:
Bertans
Bullock
10

Mavs get:
Collins
Jalen Johnson
15
46

Maybe Johnson develops a shot. But we need cheap depth if we add Collins. It’s a negative contract or neutral at best. The Hawks are in a bad spot, so we need to take advantage of that and get the best value

If we assume the Utah deal is possible (Bertans/10 for Olynyk/16/28), it would seem that Atlanta would be the team interested in Olynyk/Reggie (both expiring and Olynyk is more useful and cheaper than Bertans) in a deal for Collins.

Values for Collins on this board and on the Hawks Reddit are all over the place.  So, depending on whether one likes or dislikes Collins, you can send either 16 or 28 and keep Collins and the other one.

A week away and we are getting a rumor a day.  I imagine those that want a player drafted at 10 are not going to be happy with any of Collins, Bojan or Olynyk and Utah’s later firsts.  We should probably collectively lower our expectations so the vitriol will be more tolerable next Thursday.  And who knows, if expectations are lowered, maybe we’ll be pleasantly surprised.