Trade & FA 2023-24: Paul George to Test Free Agency After No Contract Extension

[omahen]

We'll just have to agree to disagree whether using a 2nd to move off of Holmes is cheap or not, and whether getting that done via a deadline deal would be cheaper or not. And we'll also disagree on the pricing they faced when trying to dump McGee (I think if the cost had been merely a 2nd, they would have done it in a heartbeat, and that they were looking for that very sort of deal but couldn't find a taker).

I think the equation will be the same with Holmes as with McGee, ie he will NOT be a "useful filler" for some imagined trade, and if you can find a way to get him off your payroll, do it. They painted themselves into a corner with McGee, until they just ate his contract (but did so where it will handicap them for years). I don't want to see that happen again.

I would certainly PREFER a deadline move that lands a splashy upgrade, but I'm skeptical one is going to be out there. So I want to move Holmes' dead weight if we can. Find someone offering something good for THJ, Holmes, or both and I'm all in. But I'm not holding my breath.

No problem for me to accept you have a different view. Just a couple of more cost cutting moves this past summer:
- Bullock to SA for pick swap and 2 seconds coming back
- Collins to Utah, Atlanta received a second round pick
- Oladipo for 2 SRP
- Harris to Pistons for 2 SRP

Prime example from two seasons ago would be NY clearing cap space to sign Brunson

[F Gump]

No problem for me to accept you have a different view. Just a couple of more cost cutting moves this past summer:
- Bullock to SA for pick swap and 2 seconds coming back
- Collins to Utah, Atlanta received a second round pick
- Oladipo for 2 SRP
- Harris to Pistons for 2 SRP

Prime example from two seasons ago would be NY clearing cap space to sign Brunson

I'm not sure what your point is. Teams sell players, other teams buy them, part of the transaction may be a shift in cap room from one team to another, and player value may go the other way. 2nds are little pieces that get attached going this way or that. I'm not sure any of this would be an example of a salary dump that's cheaper than a single 2nd (which was the whole point, to be doing something when the prices are super low).

And just finding a deal with a 2nd going one way or the other doesn't seem really meaningful or necessarily parallel to me (much less 2, in some of those examples). Some of these teams were paying to get the player, and I don't anticipate anyone giving the Mavs some 2nds for Holmes, but if you have that lined up, I'm in.

What was that McGee deal that you keep alluding to, that you say the Mavs turned down, where it was a salary dump of his contract for a 2nd or less? Dumping McGee (or being able to do so) would be a great comp, but I don't recall any such offer being declined by Mavs at a price of a 2nd or less.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I know that we have heard "several contenders interested" in Olynyk. Supposedly. I take that as an Ainge declaration to try to drum up interest, frankly.

I have no issue with moving Hardy, but others may. I've never been all that impressed with his shoot-at-all-costs and no-defense profile, and not sure he wants to work to truly change. And for a guy who wants to shoot every time, he's not very good at it, which is cringe-worthy stuff.

I wouldn't give much of anything for Drummond. To me a pick is too expensive a price. He's always been a guy whose stats are more attractive than his actual play.

I'm really hoping for a way to turn Holmes into an expiring, and to perhaps get some short-term use from the expiring.

Yes to all of this.  Olynyk would be helpful on the court and would provide flexibility in the summer.  It won't be easy to find an expiring guy in the right salary range who can also help on court.  For instance, Fournier would help in terms of clearing salary, but probably not in games and certainly not as a backup big.

We could look for a deal that helps another team's finances in the current season.  For instance, Holmes for Marcus Morris would get Philly under the LT this season.  It doesn't work because Morris is a role player on a contender.  But is there something else out there like that?

I think another possibility would be to find a cheaper salary than Holmes that isn't necessarily expiring.  Someone like Nick Richards gets you another $7mm of savings compared to Holmes and that extra money puts you far enough below the first apron to use most or all of the MLE (DJJ or whoever).  Richards makes $5mm next season and, unlike Holmes, could contribute backing up Lively.  The salary doesn't match directly, but Charlotte has the Thor contract that could be added to the outgoing.  Dallas could send Hardy along with Holmes and the numbers work.  You and Omahen can argue about how many seconds that might take and who would get them.  Charlotte is a place where Hardy would probably get a chance as they don't have a SG who is tearing it up by any means.

BTW regarding Hardy.  AJ Lawson has been stealing some of his minutes lately.  Since 12/1 Lawson is shooting .589 TS%.  Hardy hasn't been over .500 TS% in any month this season.  Between Seth and Lawson, I'm not sure we'd miss Hardy all that much.

[omahen]

I'm not sure what your point is. Teams sell players, other teams buy them, part of the transaction may be a shift in cap room from one team to another, and player value may go the other way. 2nds are little pieces that get attached going this way or that. I'm not sure any of this would be an example of a salary dump that's cheaper than a single 2nd (which was the whole point, to be doing something when the prices are super low).

And just finding a deal with a 2nd going one way or the other doesn't seem really meaningful or necessarily parallel to me (much less 2, in some of those examples). Some of these teams were paying to get the player, and I don't anticipate anyone giving the Mavs some 2nds for Holmes, but if you have that lined up, I'm in.

What was that McGee deal that you keep alluding to, that you say the Mavs turned down, where it was a salary dump of his contract for a 2nd or less? Dumping McGee (or being able to do so) would be a great comp, but I don't recall any such offer being declined by Mavs at a price of a 2nd or less.

What doesn't make sense is that any team would be willing to take Holmes contract at TDL for an expiring for a 2nd rounder but they would be unwilling to do it in the summer or would charge more to eat that remaining year. Obviously no one will pay to take Holmes, neither at TDL nor in the summer. Usual value is 5 mil of salary for a SRP, so dumping Holmes would cost at least 2 SRP. Cost at TDL could be higher based on the quality of the guy coming our way. 

One more move in the summer that gets you same salary saving and doesn't cost any assets. Stretch waive Holmes and not guarantee Seth. 

I never alluded there was any McGee deal. I simply said Mavs were not willing to pay anyone to take his contract but rather just cut him and eat the losses. Since there were plenty of salary dumping moves in the summer around the league, you can't really claim there was no team willing to eat that contract for the assets. It was the Mavs that were not willing to pay, imho. I am glad they didn't. Not sure why they absolutely had to get rid of him, but they have more info than I do and they know what was such a pressing matter.

Not sure how many times I would need to repeat what my point is. I firmly believe Mavs are not near contending and they need a two way wing to become a contender. Based on this, they need to keep maximum flexibility for the trade for that missing two way wing. Spending assets for expiring salary is the opposite move of that. 

Mavs have imho three options going forward:
1. They keep Luka and Irving core. They have likely a max 2 year window for a result with this pairing and I might even be optimistic about that, based on Kyrie recent history. They have no choice but to go all in in this scenario. Some might disagree, but I firmly think Mavs need a two way wing to be a serious contender with Luka and Kyrie. So if Mavs choose this scenario, the only way to make it successful is to make that 2-way wing trade happen. Anything less makes them unsuccessful.
2. Mavs cash in on Kyrie and build a contender around Luka and Lively. More time for them to do that and numerous possibilities how to do that. The risk is, if Luka is willing to wait for who knows how many years before they put the right pieces together.
3. Mavs keep this core and hope for so much internal development that they become a couple of levels better team in that short term 2-year window. Personally, I don't find this scenario as very likely to succeed. Closer to number two option than becoming a contender in a year or two.

[omahen]

If you think getting an expiring contract at TDL is so important, I would be much more open to move Maxi than Holmes. If Maxi is unavailable and just generally washed, we have no use for him as it is and getting rid of his remaining years would be beneficial. If Maxi returns to his best version of him, we don't need a back-up center anyway. Mavs have two months to figure that out.

[ItsGoTime]

I think the trade to look at for dumping unplayable salary is the Bullock deal. They both make/made about the same money to dump. Also, it was Bullock and pick swap for 4 SRPs (2 of them going to Bos to sign GWill). BTW, RB was starting on our team and hasn’t sniffed meaningful minutes this year…we got Kidd-ed on that one.

Using that trade, a pick swap is what makes sense in outgoing.

The deal I’d look into is Hayward for THJ, Holmes and a pick swap. Can expand that out with a Richards for Hardy swap, and/or PJ for Green and Maxi (might need to look at more than 1 pick swap in that case).

Why does Cha do it? If they’re gonna buyout Hayward, this gets them something instead. Not sure what their thinking is over there with new ownership and all, so it’s hard to say exactly.

[omahen]

Perhaps just to try to really clearly make my point:
1. Some might think a fringe move like Holmes and couple of seconds for a back-up makes this team serious contender. I don't. Agree to disagree, no problem with that.
2. I don't agree Mavs need to make a move at TDL to have flexibility in the summer. I think it gives them less flexibility because it will cost assets and because they will lose an expiring salary for 2025. I don't think there is any problem to shave salaries to free the full MLE in the summer, if that is what they wish and need. At this point we don't even know, if full MLE is needed to keep DJJ (might take less or someone might offer more than that).

[DanSchwartzgan]

Perhaps just to try to really clearly make my point:
1. Some might think a fringe move like Holmes and couple of seconds for a back-up makes this team serious contender. I don't. Agree to disagree, no problem with that.
2. I don't agree Mavs need to make a move at TDL to have flexibility in the summer. I think it gives them less flexibility because it will cost assets and because they will lose an expiring salary for 2025. I don't think there is any problem to shave salaries to free the full MLE in the summer, if that is what they wish and need. At this point we don't even know, if full MLE is needed to keep DJJ (might take less or someone might offer more than that).

Some of your word choices feel like we are having a conversation with a high school debate team captain. Just narrowly define your parameters and you can’t lose.  

Is a backup center a “fringe move” or adding a “critical element to the defense”.  And who are these “true contenders”?  Is there a rule somewhere that says they are the only ones who can try to improve their team?  If you aren’t on a 60 win pace, should you be a seller?  I’ve shown a move that helps “fill a critical need” for multiple years in Richards.  Are those OK for teams that aren’t “true”?

I don’t agree that Hardy and a second or two ruins plans/opportunities for the summer.  In fact, the standard isn’t to have flexibility.  It is to have a path.  If someone like OG wants to come here it will be mostly about the picks.  Between THJ and GWill and Green ect ect, we’ll be able to have a path.

[omahen]

Some of your word choices feel like we are having a conversation with a high school debate team captain. Just narrowly define your parameters and you can’t lose.  

Is a backup center a “fringe move” or adding a “critical element to the defense”.  And who are these “true contenders”?  Is there a rule somewhere that says they are the only ones who can try to improve their team?  If you aren’t on a 60 win pace, should you be a seller?  I’ve shown a move that helps “fill a critical need” for multiple years in Richards.  Are those OK for teams that aren’t “true”?

I don’t agree that Hardy and a second or two ruins plans/opportunities for the summer.  In fact, the standard isn’t to have flexibility.  It is to have a path.  If someone like OG wants to come here it will be mostly about the picks.  Between THJ and GWill and Green ect ect, we’ll be able to have a path.

I clearly said I can agree to disagree on an opinion that a minor move now makes sense. I don't agree that this move is needed to increase flexibility (full MLE) in the summer. I also don't think Olynik, which was mentioned several times as a possibility, is any answer for the Mavs. I don't see him as a positive contributor to what Mavs need, especially since you want to address critical element to defense. I don't think he improves defense at all. Olynik would be just a cost cutting move for next season imho, and as I said, I don't see that as a need at TDL.

I like Richards, but I am not sure a couple of seconds would be enough to get the deal done, based on bad salaries we have to offer.

I agree back-up center is most likely needed, assuming Maxi is done (tend to agree he is, but we have 2 more months to know this for more certain). 

I think you can always make a move for a back up center after "the big move". What you don't know is what assets you need for "the big move". So why "gamble" some of that away only to fall short later? You don't know if a path for someone like OG is just about picks. Perhaps the trade partner really likes Hardy, perhaps they want just expiring salary and don't like any of the guys on the longer term deals. By making moves earlier, you are reducing flexibility to create a path that would entice the trade partner the most. And we don't even know, who the trade partner will be and what they prefer. Of course you could involve third teams to get expiring salary, but that just complicates things.

That is why I am saying, lets be patient and do everything possible to get that "big move". Make smaller moves afterwards. In any case, we will know way more certain what Mavs really are in 2 months time. Perhaps they get healthy and show full potential and then I would be way more open to smaller moves. But as it is now, I would prefer to play out the season and do my best in the summer. Unless the big wing becomes available at TDL.

[ItsGoTime]

Just a note. TDL is Feb 8. That’s a month and a few days, not 2 months. Not even positive Maxi will be back by then. Devin Harris had lots of toe injuries that kept him out for extended stretches. They are being very tight lipped on timelines for injured players.

[omahen]

Just a note. TDL is Feb 8. That’s a month and a few days, not 2 months. Not even positive Maxi will be back by then. Devin Harris had lots of toe injuries that kept him out for extended stretches. They are being very tight lipped on timelines for injured players.

Miscalculated, thanks for the note. One month less before some moves are made around the league

[ItsGoTime]

Miscalculated, thanks for the note. One month less before some moves are made around the league

Ya, I think things will start heating up after the holidays are over. The month of January will be rumors galore.

[KillerLeft]

Ya, I think things will start heating up after the holidays are over. The month of January will be rumors galore.

That's interesting. Basically, the in-season tournament gets us to the trade deadline rumor season, which gets us to the all star break, which gets us to the stretch run, which gets us to the playoffs. 

I was kind of surprised at how quickly the in-season played out, but this is pretty smart.

[WillE]

That's interesting. Basically, the in-season tournament gets us to the trade deadline rumor season, which gets us to the all star break, which gets us to the stretch run, which gets us to the playoffs. 

I was kind of surprised at how quickly the in-season played out, but this is pretty smart.

Well observed and definitely no accident by the league. Smart move!

[ItsGoTime]

The trade I posted above, if we were to do all of it, would give us a team this year of:

Luka/Kyrie/DJJ/PJWash/Lively
Exum/Curry/Hayward/GWill/Richards

An 8 man Playoff rotation of:

Luka/Kyrie/DJJ/PJWash/Lively
Exum/Hayward/GWill

Depending on PJWash’s fit, that could be a dark horse in the playoffs.

We then go into the offseason with roughly $32M less than we show right now. That gives us a lot of opportunity if someone like OG were to decide to come here.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

If you think getting an expiring contract at TDL is so important, I would be much more open to move Maxi than Holmes. If Maxi is unavailable and just generally washed, we have no use for him as it is and getting rid of his remaining years would be beneficial. If Maxi returns to his best version of him, we don't need a back-up center anyway. Mavs have two months to figure that out.

I’ve been curious as to what has more value. Holmes because his contract is up sooner or Maxi because there’s a small chance he could come back and help on the basketball court. I’m ok pairing either up with Hardy/2nd to get a backup center but been wondering how other gms would be looking at those two.

[Chicagojk]

From Zach Lowe's article today.  I know Dan has been a proponent to Poetl in the past.  Do you still have interest?  What type of packages would he bring?

If feels like there will be a few centers on the market at the trade deadline that may lessen their value.  The question is do you use assets to secure a position that may move the needle some but may not put us in the next level up of teams?


Jakob Poeltl becoming the symbol of stagnation in Toronto
The Toronto Raptors have arrived at a sad moment of clarity. They are 12-18, 11th in the East, 21st in offensive efficiency and 17th on defense. They don't really do anything well.
They are way short on 3-point shooting around Scottie Barnes. The Barnes-Pascal Siakam-OG Anunoby trio has too much of the same thing. We've heard this before, but unless Toronto turns this around in a big way in the next month-plus, I'd be surprised if we don't see some direction-shifting trade at the deadline.
The Raptors had chances at last year's deadline but went the opposite way -- acquiring old friend Poeltl from the San Antonio Spurs in exchange for a protected first-round pick. It helped them reach the play-in (hooray!). Poeltl and Fred VanVleet rediscovered their pick-and-roll chemistry. The Raptors blitzed teams with their best players on the floor.
VanVleet bolted in free agency; Poeltl hasn't been the same since. He has hit a league-leading 70% of his shots, but you barely feel that. It's not entirely his fault, but there are too many nights when you struggle to remember anything Poeltl did.
Dennis Schroder, VanVleet's replacement, is a below-average shooter who can't unlock Poeltl the same way, especially given Toronto's awful spacing around them. (The Raptors in Wednesday's win over the Washington Wizards replaced Schroder in the starting five with Gary Trent Jr., boosting their shooting at the cost of some playmaking.)
Poeltl's minutes are down. He has dropped back to 51% at the line. Opponents have hack-a-Jak in the bag in fourth quarters, and Poeltl resorts to push shots -- which he's good at, but still -- instead of forcing contact.
His defense has been just OK; opponents are shooting 61% at the rim with Poeltl as the closest defender, around average among starting centers. Precious Achiuwa has surged, and it might be worth examining how his perimeter-oriented game might fit alongside Toronto's core starters.

[KillerLeft]

Man, Chicago, I know you didn't ask me and that I should just button up and stay quiet, but I can't.

Poetl is generally overrated, imo. He's pretty mediocre, and unless I'm way wrong about his game, he's not really even the type of center Dallas can play. I don't think he's nearly as good of a fit as Lively here, and there's almost no way they have enough role for both of them, especially in the important games. Finally, he is guaranteed almost $20 million per season for the next FOUR YEARS, the last of which is a freaking player option, lol.

NO, THANK YOU.

[mvossman]

I’ve been curious as to what has more value. Holmes because his contract is up sooner or Maxi because there’s a small chance he could come back and help on the basketball court. I’m ok pairing either up with Hardy/2nd to get a backup center but been wondering how other gms would be looking at those two.

It is a question which one has more negative value.  Its also a question what Hardy is actually worth.  I'm not sure a package of one of those two plus Hardy plus a couple of seconds is particularly enticing to anybody.  You would be selling low on all of them (Holmes because he will be expiring in offseason).

[Chicagojk]

Man, Chicago, I know you didn't ask me and that I should just button up and stay quiet, but I can't.

Poetl is generally overrated, imo. He's pretty mediocre, and unless I'm way wrong about his game, he's not really even the type of center Dallas can play. I don't think he's nearly as good of a fit as Lively here, and there's almost no way they have enough role for both of them, especially in the important games. Finally, he is guaranteed almost $20 million per season for the next FOUR YEARS, the last of which is a freaking player option, lol.

NO, THANK YOU.

I have been against it as well and would prefer to use my assets on a wing to finish up the roster.   Look for a cheap backup in the offseason or by small trade.

But with Toronto going nowhere and a lot of big money decisions, I wonder what they do.   There isn't a lot of demand for a Center making 20 million per year for the next 3-4 years.  Especially one not playing well.   So, I wonder if you could get him at a discount?   Dealing with Toronto is a nightmare though.   Plus, they would have to deal with blow back from potentially giving the Spurs their pick this year for the Poetl trade.   I could make the case that Poetl may be more attractive than Cappella in Dallas.   Not sure where I fall on that argument though.   

What if the Cost was Holmes plus Hardy and salary?  Would you do that?   The issue is the Mavs are pretty limited on what they can offer....or better what they want to offer.  With no expiring, teams need to hold their nose a little for the packages we would be offering.