Trade & FA 2023-24: ATL Open to Trading Trae Much More Now After Lottery

[KillerLeft]

Maxi/Holmes/Green/27 for Randle/Sims works.

Just saying…

Do you LIKE Randle as a player? For this team?

[The Jom]

He is who he is.

Loved everything in your post except this. Isn’t the kid just 22? Dante Exum played like a very smart vet coming into his own last night. How’d he look at 22? DJJ at 22? Finney-Smith? 

Josh Green has LOADS of potential, man.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Do you LIKE Randle as a player? For this team?

Not at all. Just feels like a Cuban sort of move, at least if it was 2021.

When I hear physicality and rebounding and knowing they like star players…it’s not hard to imagine them trying to get into the mix if he becomes available because it’s a very Mavs-y thing to do historically. Plus his value may be low enough because of his moodiness that they may be able to pull it off with limited assets. Can just see them convincing themselves it’s just a change of scenery that’s needed to turn him around.

I will say that I think the BEST version of Randle would help any NBA team but it’s not worth gambling that you’ll get that version on a regular basis.

I do like Sims a lot though and he’s just rotting on their bench over there, wouldn’t mind going after him just by himself. Would give you two strong roll men for Luka moving forward.

[The Jom]

We can fill in the blank with any physical rebounder we want I guess.  I happen to think Poeltl makes sense for several reasons.  One, he perfectly fits the criteria of rebounding and physicality.  His age puts him dead in his prime.  He's locked up for the same four years as Lively at a flat $19.5mm per year.  You get 48 minutes of center play for about 15% of the tax this year and less than that each year as Poeltl's number stays flat while the tax level goes up.  If we were thinking about Ayton and Capela, there is no reason to believe we wouldn't also consider Poeltl.

He's not a necessity on an underperforming Toronto team.  They can play Siakam, Boucher, Achiuwas and eventually Koloko at center.  They need to fix the logjam between Siakam, Poeltl, Barnes and Anunoby (positionally and skill-set wise).  Turning him for more than what they paid for him would look/feel like good front-office work.  Holmes plus the unprotected 2027 pick fits, but puts Dallas into the tax.  I'm wondering if it ends up instead being Holmes, Green and some protections on the 2027 pick backed up by the 2028 second if it doesn't convey.  Toronto could substitute Maxi for Holmes if they wish.  Green's outside shooting and connective passing would be a welcome addition in Toronto.  And, adding Green to the deal keeps Dallas out of the tax this season.

No, I don't want to trade Green.  But, this team is as good as I hoped and we would look completely different if we got 48 minutes of good defensive center play and Maxi/Powell doesn't provide that at a high enough level for the playoffs.  We also can't place our entire post-season bet on Maxi's health and Lively staying out of foul trouble the next two seasons.  I go back and forth on this a lot, but splitting the position with two high quality guys makes great sense to me.  Let Poeltl take the beating against starters for the next year or two and let Lively feast against backups.  By the time Lively is 21, Poeltl is only 30.  At some point there is a logical transition to Lively starting.  But it doesn't have to be now.

I really like the team we have left after such a move.  It is going to be really hard to develop Green, Hardy, OMax and Lively.  Green partially blocks Hardy for guard minutes and partially blocks OMax for defensive wing minutes.  If he's gone, you have one scorer and one defensive wing and one center you are trying to develop.  What you are left with is:

Center:  Poeltl/Lively/Powell

D Wing:  GWill/DJJ/Maxi/Exum/OMax

Scoring G:  Luka/Kyrie/THJ/Hardy/Curry

What you are essentially saying in such a deal is you trust DJJ relative to Josh more than you trust Powell/Maxi relative to Poeltl.  The 28 year old Poeltl is about as statistically consistent as they come.  You know pretty much exactly what you are getting per 36 and with his advanced stats.  His teams are always better when he's on the floor and if that happens with Lively getting all the other minutes, that will be quite a positive thing.  We take a slight ding to our 3 point shooting, but the D is better and D is where we have the most margin for improvement.

Love your analysis. Love the thoughtfulness. Don’t love the player (although I’m open minded about him). He just doesn’t look mobile enough to me. Maybe that’s wrong?

[ItsGoTime]

Of course not! You can keep typing overtly wrong things until you're blue in the face. Makes for great content!

Right back atcha!

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Who’s ready for green/27 to be moved for Julius Randle?

BE PREPARED

Not gonna lie.  When I heard Nico say “physicality and rebounding” my mind immediately went to oh no that sounds like Julius Randle. 

I don't think the Knicks are trading him though.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 

As far as SF targets? I’m very much in agreement with Dan on that thought. An upgraded big group is a much bigger upgrade overall than an upgrade at SF.  

Everyone probably ought to listen to the interview.  It was an unexpected question and it felt like Nico was caught off-guard and gave a fairly honest answer.  I don't think 90% of the names being thrown around meet the criteria of 1. being a good rebounder with physicality who is 2. an obvious upgrade over what we have.   We can certainly all think of ways to upgrade other positions, but I don't think that's what Nico was talking about.  To IGT's point, there is room to upgrade what we have on the wing, but it is a more expensive position to upgrade and the spread between what you have and what you can afford is greater at center.

I think the biggest disconnect here (and this touches on the 27 pick or not conversation) is figuring out where we are and what our goal should be.  Some want to prioritize development.  We can't have nice things because it will disrupt Lively's growth or some such.  I suspect the team puts winning playoff rounds higher on the priority list with development an important sub-priority for the regular season.  We have two super-stars, the second best offense in the league and the 5th best net rating.  But, we are bottom five in D-Rebounding and bottom three in Points in the Paint Allowed.  I suspect we want to fix that.  Lively is part of the solution, but he won't do it by himself.  To me, it is clear what position needs to change to fix that and it isn't defensive wing defender.

I think the misallocation of resources argument holds some validity.  Not in the playoffs, but certainly in the regular season.  Not in 23/24, but certainly by 25/26 when Poeltl will be an expensive backup...probably.  But, Lively isn't ready to carry us through a playoff run for now and we need someone who can.  As an aside, if DJJ plays well enough to earn a significant contract, the exception we currently have available is the Taxpayer MLE at $5.25mm.  Are we sure that's enough?  The version of the trade that includes Green and Holmes takes our salary next season down by $6mm.  It might actually help us manage our financial resources better all things considered.

[JamesConway912]

One of the biggest needs is a stretch big who can actually be played. Kleber will be out multiple weeks, so that issue won’t go away anytime soon. Also he didn’t exactly have his best start to a season anyway. But it’s obvious on the court that our halfcourt offense would improve majorly if we could sprinkle in some five out ball here & there.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I have a question.  Someone recently talked about trading the protected part of our 25 pick (sorry I don't recall who).  In other words, if we don't convey the 24 pick to NY (again) we could offer up picks 2-10 in 2025 (for instance) as part of a deal.  NY gets our 2025 first if it is 11+.  We get it if it is #1 and some new trade partner gets it if it falls 2-10.  It is kind of a fake first, but I thought it was a clever idea.  But that isn't my question.

My question is about what we have/don't have in terms of second rounders in 2025.  Any fake first has to be backed up by something.  Here is what it says on Spotrac:

Dallas has Toronto's 2nd in 2025

Boston gets the Dallas 2nd if we have conveyed a first to NY by 2025.  Obviously NY gets it if we haven't.

Detroit's first goes to Dallas if Dallas conveys 1st to NY by 2025 or to Boston if Dallas doesn't convey a first to NYK by 2025 (because NY would have gotten the pick going to Boston above).

So, there is a high likelihood we will have two seconds in 2025?  I find that interesting.  It could be used to trade for something between now and the deadline (maybe instead of or in addition to 2027).  It could be used to construct a fake first as I outlined above.  Or, more likely, it could be used to put protections on our 2025 pick this summer as we contemplate what to do if we can deal 25, 27 and 31.

[JamesConway912]

Poeltl is a below the rim guy who cant shoot. He’s absolutely no fit here. Say whatever you want about Powell but he’s still a darn good backup Center, especially in our system. That’s not the position to upgrade Imo.

Biggest needs Imo:

Stretch five
Two way wings (as always)

I’m actually very impressed how they have filled up the backup guard positions. Hardy is slowly finding his way into the regular rotation and Exum looks like a good find as well, Seth also seems like he’s still a guy you can plug in and play anytime.

Imo the biggest internal „need“ is to cash in on Hardaway while he’s playing the way he does. Picks, expirings, a 3D wing player or a stretch big. Moving him would balance out the roster and I am confident that we could replace his production internally.

[F Gump]

C - Lively, DP, Maxi, Holmes

PF  [OMax, Morris]
F - GW, JG, DJJ
SG - THJ, Curry

G - Luka, Ky, Hardy Exum


1 Lively will be the Mavs' starting center in the playoffs. He's their best. He is improving. The Mavs will be in a "ride or die" mode with him. It's silly to think otherwise.
....They do need a better backup than they have in DP or Maxi. But upgrading "backup center" is not something you pay a lot to do. Sign a buyout? Get someone cheap at the deadline?
2 Their obvious hole for right now is at PF. 
...They have several F/SF types, and use 2 of them at a time, which leaves them undersized (and overpowered) when it comes to D and rebounding.
... To some extent they use Luka at PF, which is a solution in 1 way but can create issues in others. He can rebound.
3 Upgrading that PF guy, it means less of (or a trade of) GW, JG or DJJ to that guy. How much better would that make them? At what cost?
... Also, I think they already believe they have their long-term "answer" on the roster (OMax), so how much would they pay to bring in someone else? He's not ready. But they aren't paying an arm and a leg for someone else, for him to be kept off the floor.

I have to think that the Mavs intended type of answer is likely to be a part-timer, and I see the Sixers roster as a very promising place to shop. But which of their PFs works best, probably depends on price tags. And since the Sixers want to win now, what they will let go of is a question of how a swap can help THEM to that end.

[The Jom]

Astute except for the “silly” part.

[BigDirk41]

Hell no to Randle. I don't think he's a good fit here. He's not a smart player and very selfish.

[omahen]

Poeltl is a below the rim guy who cant shoot. He’s absolutely no fit here. Say whatever you want about Powell but he’s still a darn good backup Center, especially in our system. That’s not the position to upgrade Imo.

Biggest needs Imo:

Stretch five
Two way wings (as always)

I’m actually very impressed how they have filled up the backup guard positions. Hardy is slowly finding his way into the regular rotation and Exum looks like a good find as well, Seth also seems like he’s still a guy you can plug in and play anytime.

Imo the biggest internal „need“ is to cash in on Hardaway while he’s playing the way he does. Picks, expirings, a 3D wing player or a stretch big. Moving him would balance out the roster and I am confident that we could replace his production internally.

Very much agree with this, especially with the last part. Mavs still played a ton of small lineups with basically 4 guards on the floor, as they have so many guys who need to get minutes on the position. They can get by against Clippers, but had huge problems against Toronto. Teams overall are getting bigger and bigger. THJ has been great as a bench scorer, but he is imho very easily replaced with existing roster. Trading him for a bigger wing would really solidify our rotations. 

I think this team is one very good wing away from becoming a contender. From there on you tinker around the edges. It is probably unlikely Mavs can find someone good for the assets they have by TDL. So I would save flexibility for next season. Both in terms of assets as well as tradeable contracts. 

I think center position is ok for this season and adding another center doesn't imho makes us a contender. I wouldn't spend assets for a good starting centre and even less so for a back-up. I rather wait and hope Lively will take a couple of steps forward next season. However, perhaps someone would see value in THJ and spend assets for him. So I decided to look for teams that might need THJ and could consider giving up some value for him because he would make them better.

These are worst 3 point shooting teams so far: Charlotte, Portland, LAL, Sacramento (shoot a lot, percentage low so far), Cleveland, Orlando, NOP, Memphis (same as Sacramento), San Antonio, Atlanta, New York. 

I don't see teams like Charlotte, Portland and SA would see any value in a vet shooter. They are still rebuilding. Sacramento already has their "THJ" in Monk. I don't think Memphis, LAL, Cleveland or New York would be very interested. This leaves:
- Orlando. They really need a shooter and they want to start competing. Problem is, I don't see much interesting there that would be available. We don't need to add another guard. What I would consider is Isaac and pick for THJ. THJ could be the difference for them to bring them to playoffs. Mavs would get additional flexibility moving forward while I don't think their on-court result would suffer much losing THJ, despite his production (Mavs have other capable bench scorers). Isaac is mostly cooked, but he is also expiring (not guaranteed for next season) and he could make some sense from bench. But this just doesn't sound like a Mavs type of move
- NOP is another team in big need of shooting, although their prime target should probably be a shooting big or PF to pair with Zion. They really need to make step forward with this group or think about rebuilding. However similar problem as Orlando. Not really anything interesting there. Perhaps similar move as with Orlando - Valanciunas for a season and a pick for THJ. Mavs lose a tradeable salary for summer and Valanciunas is not a great fit, imho. 
- Atlanta. Can we revive the Capela ideas? THJ for Capela seems like a fair trade, but Atlanta would need at least a back-up big too. Holmes is too expensive and Mavs will likely not consider trading Powell.

[The Jom]

THJ is the kinda player Warriors dump guys for and then make efficient contributors out of em.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Not gonna lie.  When I heard Nico say “physicality and rebounding” my mind immediately went to oh no that sounds like Julius Randle. 

I don't think the Knicks are trading him though.

Ya, again, I want to make sure I’m on the record that I’m not advocating for that sort of move but on paper, he’s very much the type of guy that’s being described both by Nico and also by a lot of folks on the board (the idea of Randle is being described at least). He’s a headcase though and doesn’t give consistent effort and I think him and Grant Williams would be difficult to pair up (unless we’re going small and one of them is at the 5) so for all those reasons I wouldn’t be interested in giving up assets for him.

Curious if Mavs2021 is still interested though? I know he has wanted him here previously.

Would also say that it’s starting to seem like his days are numbered there based on how the fanbase views him and the Knicks are pretty primed to turn that whole roster over at the snap of their fingers. I expect them to be very active come February.

[KillerLeft]

THJ is the kinda player Warriors dump guys for and then make efficient contributors out of em.

Agreed. Moving THJ now (at least, just for the purposes of moving him, anyway) is a move in favor of development, but actually hurts the team's chances to compete this year (such that they are). 

I'm fine with it, because I know if lasts another year he'll be moved next year (as an expiring contract) for SURE. Might as well force Hardy into the fire now, for all I care.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 

1 Lively will be the Mavs' starting center in the playoffs. He's their best. He is improving. The Mavs will be in a "ride or die" mode with him. It's silly to think otherwise.
 
2 Their obvious hole for right now is at PF. 
 
I have to think that the Mavs intended type of answer is likely to be a part-timer, and I see the Sixers roster as a very promising place to shop.  

It's just (what's the word I'm looking for) to think Nico was talking about the Clipper trash via Sixers when he spoke of rebounding and physicality.  

Love me some Lively, but 'ride or die' with a rookie 19 year old center in the playoffs is not a plan.  It is a prayer.

[F Gump]

Love me some Lively, but 'ride or die' with a rookie 19 year old center in the playoffs is not a plan.  It is a prayer.

Oh? I think it is indeed a plan. Their plan, in fact. And a practical one (even if not the ideal way to go, since ideal is hard and prohibitively expensive to acquire). And probably the best plan within their reach.

If you think that plan also needs prayer to succeed, so be it -- but I bet it's exactly where they are intending to go.

As for the Nico plan, I don't think HE had any particular player(s) in mind in that off-the-cuff conversation. I think Philly has an excess of PF types. But maybe Philly's players don't quite fill that need? Then again, finding someone with an excess top-level PF to toss this direction won't be a slam dunk, so there's that reality to deal with.

[Winter]

Poetl is the right type of player. He's played 60-70 games for the last four years, rebounds well, and doesn't need the ball to be effective.

We'd like to have someone like a healthy Robert Williams, but I don't think we can bank on getting someone like that. Randall is a big NO as he doesn't really solve anything the Mavs need, and he pouts more than Doncic. We don't need a player that we have to babysit for. We also don't need a player that will eat into Grant Williams minutes.