Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[MFFL]

Mavs receive: James Harden. Sixers receive: DeMar DeRozan, 2025 second-round pick (TOR via DAL), 2028 second-round pick (MIA via DAL). Bulls receive: Christian Wood (sign-and-trade), Tim Hardaway Jr., 2027 first-round pick (DAL).

Dalton Trigg's thoughts
https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/news/da...pipe-dream

Original article
https://fadeawayworld.net/the-three-team...n-to-76ers

[DallasMaverick]

Mavs receive: James Harden. Sixers receive: DeMar DeRozan, 2025 second-round pick (TOR via DAL), 2028 second-round pick (MIA via DAL). Bulls receive: Christian Wood (sign-and-trade), Tim Hardaway Jr., 2027 first-round pick (DAL).

Dalton Trigg's thoughts
https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/news/da...pipe-dream

Original article
https://fadeawayworld.net/the-three-team...n-to-76ers

An all-defense team.

[KillerLeft]

Mavs receive: James Harden. Sixers receive: DeMar DeRozan, 2025 second-round pick (TOR via DAL), 2028 second-round pick (MIA via DAL). Bulls receive: Christian Wood (sign-and-trade), Tim Hardaway Jr., 2027 first-round pick (DAL).

Dalton Trigg's thoughts
https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/news/da...pipe-dream

Original article
https://fadeawayworld.net/the-three-team...n-to-76ers

In addition to the obvious fit issues on court, it's it's pretty much documented that Harden asked out of Brooklyn specifically because he was sick of Kyrie.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

3 supermax defensively deficient point guards. Ya, that'd work.

[F Gump]

Mavs receive: James Harden. Sixers receive: DeMar DeRozan, 2025 second-round pick (TOR via DAL), 2028 second-round pick (MIA via DAL). Bulls receive: Christian Wood (sign-and-trade), Tim Hardaway Jr., 2027 first-round pick (DAL).

Ugh, no.

[IamDougieFresh]

How do you feel this trade is balanced gentlemen?

THJ and McGee for Isaac and Houstan

The way I see it, the Magic need shooting and I need to get rid of Tim and McShaqtin. 90%+ chance Isaac is cooked, but he will be a very useful non guaranteed contract to trade.

[F Gump]

How do you feel this trade is balanced gentlemen?

THJ and McGee for Isaac and Houstan

The way I see it, the Magic need shooting and I need to get rid of Tim and McShaqtin. 90%+ chance Isaac is cooked, but he will be a very useful non guaranteed contract to trade.

There's little to no benefit in that type of trade anymore. To take the THJ-JM combo in that trade w DAL, the Magic have to g'tee about $14.2M of his contract, with the full salary being $17.4M if he's not waived. Unless he can play well, it's just bad salary that no one will want.

A team who wants to take a flier on him will wait until he's waived, and then perhaps chase him with min salary money. His stock is low.

[dirkfansince1998]

How do you feel this trade is balanced gentlemen?

THJ and McGee for Isaac and Houstan

The way I see it, the Magic need shooting and I need to get rid of Tim and McShaqtin. 90%+ chance Isaac is cooked, but he will be a very useful non guaranteed contract to trade.

Isaac is making headlines. But as usual it´s not about basketball.

[IamDougieFresh]

Fellas if they can just get McGee and THJ out of here for almost anything I will be happy.

[Jym]

Mavs receive: James Harden. Sixers receive: DeMar DeRozan, 2025 second-round pick (TOR via DAL), 2028 second-round pick (MIA via DAL). Bulls receive: Christian Wood (sign-and-trade), Tim Hardaway Jr., 2027 first-round pick (DAL).

Dalton Trigg's thoughts
https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/news/da...pipe-dream

Original article
https://fadeawayworld.net/the-three-team...n-to-76ers

Kind of hard to think of someone I'd less want to trade for

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Here's what I would say... he's a $20m/yr player. So his 3yr contract is worth $60m, resulting in $41.9m in dead money.

Our dead money...
McGee: worth $0, -$11.7m/2yr
THJ: worth $11m, -$11.9m/2yr
Holmes: worth $3m, -$18.8/2yr

So to make the numbers match and give back PHX $20m/yr in value, this works.

-Wood (S&T 3yr, $10m/yr)
-THJ
-McGee
for
-Ayton

This would swap -$23.6m (THJ and McGee) of our dead money, resulting in the following overpay for Ayton (given his play stays the same):
2023: +$0.1m
2024: -$12.9m
2025: -$15.5m

This would put us just under Apron 1.

Kyrie, Hardy, Exum
Green, Curry
Luka, OMax
G.Williams, Maxi
Ayton, Powell, Lively, Holmes

The only dead money left is Holmes' -$18.8m/2yr

For PHX...
Booker, Lee
Beasley, Ross, Gordon
Warren, THJ, Okogie
Durant, Bol
Eubanks, Wood

Thoughts?

[Smitty]

Where is Wood getting 10M/yr?! He’ll be a minimum or BAE guy for someone.

Don’t want Ayton. I’d rather have THJ to tell the truth.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Where is Wood getting 10M/yr?! He’ll be a minimum or BAE guy for someone.

Don’t want Ayton. I’d rather have THJ to tell the truth.

Time will tell.  Again, lots of moving parts still haven't landed, including 3 stars in Harden, Dame, and Siakom.  MIA, where Wood is most linked, is front and center in that turmoil.  They've lost 2 starters because they're waiting on Dame.

I am the least among Ayton fans here, but if you can justify him ~$20m/yr, that changes all critique.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

A common mistake fans make is to measure players against expectations and not actual worth. IMO, it happened with both KP and Wood.

On the opposite side, fans make the mistake of viewing formerly successful players in that former success, not their current actual worth. IMO this is the case with hope for Holmes and perceived value of Capela.

[mvossman]

A common mistake fans make is to measure players against expectations and not actual worth.  IMO, it happened with both KP and Wood.

On the opposite side, fans make the mistake of viewing formerly successful players in that former success, not their current actual worth.  IMO this is the case with hope for Holmes and perceived value of Capela.

I think the biggest issues with both KP and Wood were of the locker room variety.  The team got a noticeable lift after sending away KP (with some surprising player comments made regarding that) and the lack of Wood interest by Mavs or any other NBA team screams locker room red flags. In fact in both cases I would suggest that it was those players who had too high expectations of what they were and rankled from not getting their touches or minutes.

I think there is some truth to your second point, but you can also go the other way.  Players can have fairly wild swings in their performance from year to year for various reasons.  Its generally not a smooth curve.  So when you project future performance you can make the mistake of being too swayed by recency bias.

[Chicagojk]

So a player I have been way off so far in the draft a few years ago, who also hasn't been a very good NBA player yet is Marvin Bagley. I never thought he would be a good defender, but I thought he would score and rebound right away and be a guy who put up 20 and 10 year in, year out. I sort of thought he would be a Julius Randle level player. It hasn't worked out and he hasn't been good when I have seen him play. He is still only 24.

One of the things on the Mavs that I am worried about is a big guy who can get easy baskets for himself. So how about a gamble on Bagley. Hardaway for Bagley. Mavs clear up their guard depth and Detroit removes a big from all their young depth.

Bagley is your scoring big off the bench. Paired with Maxi or Grant when one of Luka or Kyrie is resting. I am guessing most are going to say no, but I do wonder if Bagley ever figures it out, or is this who he is.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I think the biggest issues with both KP and Wood were of the locker room variety.  The team got a noticeable lift after sending away KP (with some surprising player comments made regarding that) and the lack of Wood interest by Mavs or any other NBA team screams locker room red flags.  In fact in both cases I would suggest that it was those players who had too high expectations of what they were and rankled from not getting their touches or minutes.

I think there is some truth to your second point, but you can also go the other way.  Players can have fairly wild swings in their performance from year to year for various reasons.  Its generally not a smooth curve.  So when you project future performance you can make the mistake of being too swayed by recency bias.

If you have known any professional athletes, your first point applies to 95%.  Even the least among professional athletes have been told how special and valuable they are from an early age.  But to your point, you have temper that in regards to your equals and betters.  IMO that applies to KP, not wanting to play with the most gifted ball handler since Lebron.  That was just foolishness, immaturity, and youth.  It doesn't mark him for life as many elites grow out of that (eg Penny/N.Anderson, Kobe/Shaq, Kidd/J.Jackson).  There's simply no smoke that that was the issue with Wood in Dallas.  He thought he should have a bigger role, and anyone with a bball IQ above room temperature would agree, but that was between him and the coaching staff, not teammates.

I agree with your second point, as it pertains to younger players.  You hit late 20s, however, you are who you are.  At that point the curve (season to season) is pretty smooth.  The example I'll use is Capela; what he did in HOU doesn't matter; you have to project out his current decline curve.  This applies to players who had an act II to their careers like G.Hill and D.Rose.  You don't assess them for their earlier MVP value; you assess them for their current role-playing value.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

So a player I have been way off so far in the draft a few years ago, who also hasn't been a very good NBA player yet is Marvin Bagley.  I never thought he would be a good defender, but I thought he would score and rebound right away and be a guy who put up 20 and 10 year in, year out.  I sort of thought he would be a Julius Randle level player.  It hasn't worked out and he hasn't been good when I have seen him play.  He is still only 24. 

One of the things on the Mavs that I am worried about is a big guy who can get easy baskets for himself.  So how about a gamble on Bagley.  Hardaway for Bagley.  Mavs clear up their guard depth and Detroit removes a big from all their young depth. 

Bagley is your scoring big off the bench.  Paired with Maxi or Grant when one of Luka or Kyrie is resting.  I am guessing most are going to say no, but I do wonder if Bagley ever figures it out, or is this who he is.

Perfect example.  If you evaluate what he is, rather than what he should be, you still see his value.  I'm totally good with THJ for Bagley for the same reason I have been wanting Wood back.  Give me that scoring off the bench by a big over a SG/SF any day.  Wood is even more ideal given he stretches the defense at an efficient clip.

[mvossman]

If you have known any professional athletes, your first point applies to 95%.  Even the least among professional athletes have been told how special and valuable they are from an early age.  But to your point, you have temper that in regards to your equals and betters.  IMO that applies to KP, not wanting to play with the most gifted ball handler since Lebron.  That was just foolishness, immaturity, and youth.  It doesn't mark him for life as many elites grow out of that (eg Penny/N.Anderson, Kobe/Shaq, Kidd/J.Jackson).  There's simply no smoke that that was the issue with Wood in Dallas.  He thought he should have a bigger role, and anyone with a bball IQ above room temperature would agree, but that was between him and the coaching staff, not teammates.

I agree with your second point, as it pertains to younger players.  You hit late 20s, however, you are who you are.  At that point the curve (season to season) is pretty smooth.  The example I'll use is Capela; what he did in HOU doesn't matter; you have to project out his current decline curve.  This applies to players who had an act II to their careers like G.Hill and D.Rose.  You don't assess them for their earlier MVP value; you assess them for their current role-playing value.

I think you are ignoring all evidence if you think Wood's only issue is Kidd.  That would not explain why we could not get any value for him at trade deadline, or why nobody has offered him a contract.

There are plenty of players that take big dips in their late 20's and then turn it around completely, especially with a change in scenery.  Its not just the youth curve.  There is other stuff too.

[mvossman]

Perfect example.  If you evaluate what he is, rather than what he should be, you still see his value.  I'm totally good with THJ for Bagley for the same reason I have been wanting Wood back.  Give me that scoring off the bench by a big over a SG/SF any day.  Wood is even more ideal given he stretches the defense at an efficient clip.

I feel just the opposite.  Wings are far more important that a bench scoring big that can't play defense, especially for a team that is already way better offensively than defensively.