GAME 58: DAL (34-24) @ MIA (37-21): 107-99 WIN!

[KillerLeft]

https://twitter.com/All_Things_Mavs/stat...0628100101

So much hate is being thrown at Bertans' defense that I'm going to take a wait and see approach with that. We'll find out soon.

But, I have to say that I believe it's objectively true that someone comfortable enough even to attempt some of these shots is going to help the offense a little. Maybe a lot, if things go close to the best case scenario with him. 

If he's unplayable these skills won't matter, of course, but that release is fast, and he doesn't need much space to get it off. Seems like he has a wide variety of gathering/setup techniques, too, which puts him closer to a THJ/Redick/Hield style player than a Kleber style player. This, if successfully integrated into the team (big, HUGE if) is a valuable, helpful thing.

[Kammrath]

So much hate is being thrown at Bertans' defense that I'm going to take a wait and see approach with that. We'll find out soon.

1) It is a "parrot" industry. 

2) A helpful TEAM defender is the hardest thing to actually quantify and analyze.

[SleepingHero]

What the hell happened? How did RB, TB, and TP all end up hurt? Did the Mavs get into a street fight during practice this week?

Burke went out early against the Clips with that weird shoulder pain. Bullock looked to take a hard fall as well near the end of the third. I think Bullock could play, but I think Kidd wants Dinwiddie and Bertans to get ample minutes to integrate them ASAP, so he's sitting.

[Arioch]

Burke went out early against the Clips with that weird shoulder pain..

It was less a weird shoulder pain and more that the replay guys didn't roll the tape back far enough when they were trying to explain it. Since I was DVR'ing, I ran back 30 seconds before what they were doing and you can clearly see his arm get caught and wrenched between two other players. After that he was trying to play through it, but was obviously was getting shooting pains that caused him to move the arm in herky-jerky ways--which looked like weird spasms if you didn't realize the arm had just been wrenched.

[cow]

1) It is a "parrot" industry. 

2) A helpful TEAM defender is the hardest thing to actually quantify and analyze.

Or maybe people watched him play.

[Kammrath]

Or maybe people watched him play.

But even if they "watched" him, they might not have WATCHED him. If we aren't being really conscious we will just watch with "confirmation bias" and other such biases. The eye test is great and watching film is great, but statistics are so necessary because they help us question our possible blind spots and biases.

I don't see DB as much different than Dirk defensively. A solid team defender despite a terrible reputation on D.

[cow]

But even if they "watched" him, they might not have WATCHED him. If we aren't being really conscious we will just watch with "confirmation bias" and other such biases. The eye test is great and watching film is great, but statistics are so necessary because they help us question our possible blind spots and biases.

I don't see DB as much different than Dirk. A solid team defender despite a terrible reputation on D.

I trust Pop and to a lesser extent, Scott Brooks. 

The Dirk comparison is crazy.

[Kammrath]

The Dirk comparison is crazy.

It is a DEFENSE comparison only. 

People trashed Dirk year after year about being a terrible defender. But he was consistently a solid and reliable TEAM defender. Nothing crazy about that limited comparison.

[cow]

It is a DEFENSE comparison only. 

People trashed Dirk year after year about being a terrible defender. But he was consistently a solid and reliable TEAM defender. Nothing crazy about that limited comparison.

I understood the comparison, it is crazy.

[SleepingHero]

It was less a weird shoulder pain and more that the replay guys didn't roll the tape back far enough when they were trying to explain it. Since I was DVR'ing, I ran back 30 seconds before what they were doing and you can clearly see his arm get caught and wrenched between two other players. After that he was trying to play through it, but was obviously was getting shooting pains that caused him to move the arm in herky-jerky ways--which looked like weird spasms if you didn't realize the arm had just been wrenched.

That makes more sense. The broadcast only showed maybe 3 seconds of Burke just grimacing and not really showing what happened. 

In any case, the fact he's injured, possibly for a large chunk of time, makes him even more expendable to me.

---

It is a DEFENSE comparison only. 

People trashed Dirk year after year about being a terrible defender. But he was consistently a solid and reliable TEAM defender. Nothing crazy about that limited comparison.

I think you took it a step too far there. We haven't even seen Bertans play and we're comparing him to Dallas Mavericks all-time block leader Dirk Nowitzki?!

[Kammrath]

I think you took it a step too far there. We haven't even seen Bertans play and we're comparing him to Dallas Mavericks all-time block leader Dirk Nowitzki?!

It is a comparison of REPUTATION. That is all.

[omahen]

So Green, FN or Sterling starting tonight

(1) Mark Followill on Twitter: "Bullock is officially out. Trey Burke is too with a left shoulder injury that took him out of Saturday's game in the first half. He had been listed as questionable. New additions Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans are available. Jason Kidd says they'll come in off the bench." / Twitter

[KillerLeft]

So Green, FN or Sterling starting tonight

(1) Mark Followill on Twitter: "Bullock is officially out. Trey Burke is too with a left shoulder injury that took him out of Saturday's game in the first half. He had been listed as questionable. New additions Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans are available. Jason Kidd says they'll come in off the bench." / Twitter

Or Kleber, no?

[omahen]

Or Kleber, no?

I don't think so, as that would leave Powell as the only big. I think Mavs will play with one big on the floor for the whole game.

[KillerLeft]

I don't think so, as that would leave Powell as the only big. I think Mavs will play with one big on the floor for the whole game.

Do you think so because of the specific matchup with Miami, or just because that's how you expect them to play in general? 

I think in a general sense, we're about to see Powell OR Kleber most of the time, but not all of the time. I think they will still play Kleber some at his more natural position. But, I can see an argument for not doing so against Miami.

[cow]

Bertans getting 47 minutes at the five.  He'd play 48 but Powell needs to start as dictated by the broken circle of trust.

[omahen]

Do you think so because of the specific matchup with Miami, or just because that's how you expect them to play in general? 

I think this is how they will play in general

[KillerLeft]

I think this is how they will play in general

Interesting. I definitely agree that plan A will be to make it through games with Powell/Kleber playing all 48 minutes at center, but I don't think that means they can't play some at the same time. Similar to Luka and Brunson, only maybe a little less overlap than those two. 

I'll be pretty shocked if the plan is for DFS to the FULL TIME 4 (or share it with Bertans, only). I mean, more than we'd see with KP in the mix, sure, but all game, every game? Interested to see how this plays out.

---

I think the divergence might be the total minutes we expect those guys to play, @"omahen". I don't think Powell or Kleber will be held to 22-24 minutes in the playoffs. At all. 

Maybe for another couple of weeks, but then I'd expect them both to start trending towards 30. Maybe higher.

[omahen]

Interesting. I definitely agree that plan A will be to make it through games with Powell/Kleber playing all 48 minutes at center, but I don't think that means they can't play some at the same time. Similar to Luka and Brunson, only maybe a little less overlap than those two. 

I'll be pretty shocked if the plan is for DFS to the FULL TIME 4 (or share it with Bertans, only). I mean, more than we'd see with KP in the mix, sure, but all game, every game? Interested to see how this plays out.

I don't think they really have anyone else capable of playing serious center minutes. The overlap can of course come, if they play more than 48 minutes combined and this might happen. 

I think Luka is the nominal PF on defense.

---

(1) Chuck Cooperstein on Twitter: "Mavs starters: Green, DFS, Powell, Brunson, Doncic MIA starters: Butler, Tucker, Adebayo, Robinson, Lowry 6:40 tip @theeagledallas" / Twitter

[KillerLeft]

I don't think they really have anyone else capable of playing serious center minutes. The overlap can of course come, if they play more than 48 minutes combined and this might happen. 

I think Luka is the nominal PF on defense.

Don't get me wrong. I'm definitely with you about this being the default approach now. And frankly, I think it's a more "playoff" way of doing things (if you have the talent for it, of course).