GAME 58: DAL (34-24) @ MIA (37-21): 107-99 WIN!

[SatnamSingh]

Absolutely love Maxi but Im worried about him staying healthy having to play this kind of minutes on a regular basis.

[audiosway]

Agreed, and I'll go even further. He's obviously a good defender, but before Kidd's last time out, Miami was starting to gain momentum, basically because Butler was going right at Green, bully style. It was a simple "this kid doesn't know what this is, I'm going to run right through him and I'll get the calls, not him." Green will eventually learn ways of dealing with/discouraging that, but I think if he hadn't have come out at that point they would've lost the game. 

There will be lots of stretches like that in the playoffs. Moments that are still just a little too big for him, imo.

Good assessment. I agree about Green. Really looking good right now. Kidd has done him well in getting his confidence up and getting him into the rotation. I also agree that he will definitely be the one most likely to break out next season. He seems to be putting it together. Playoffs will be another good learning experience for him. I like that Kidd really seems to know when to pull him and when to let him play. 

I have to say, I was really down on the team because I had no faith in Cuban doing the right thing for the team. I'm surprised at how the moves have turned out. Kidd is doing a great job. Moving KP was a very good sign to me. Previously, when Cuban made mistakes he would stick with them way too long. This time they didn't. It was given a shot then a move was made. Impressive.

[Winter]

Good assessment. I agree about Green. Really looking good right now. Kidd has done him well in getting his confidence up and getting him into the rotation. I also agree that he will definitely be the one most likely to break out next season. He seems to be putting it together. Playoffs will be another good learning experience for him. I like that Kidd really seems to know when to pull him and when to let him play.

I think we need to be more realistic about our own players. Green has been here long enough to evaluate. He will likely never be a starter anywhere. He is probably closer to Justin Jackson than DFS. He doesn't worry opponents and his only real offense is right around the basket.

We have to give him every opportunity because he's our draft pick. Yes, the playoffs will be a good experience, but he will be lucky to play 10 minutes in the playoffs. 

In one of those NBA profiles registering "Pros and Cons" only has one item in the Pro column that says, "Brings a lot of energy," then it's likely you're an expendable player. Unless something drastically changes, this is not a player that's offered a second contract.

[Arioch]

I think we need to be more realistic about our own players. Green has been here long enough to evaluate. He will likely never be a starter anywhere. He is probably closer to Justin Jackson than DFS. He doesn't worry opponents and his only real offense is right around the basket.

Green is 22. At 22, DFS wasn't even in the NBA nor did any NBA team think he was even worth a 2nd-round pick.

As a second year player, DFS did have slightly better stats than Green does (although Green does have a better 3P%) but the difference in raw numbers is marginal and Green is clearly a better ball-handler and possibly a better defender than DFS was at the time.

I'm okay with 'being realistic' but that has to include the fact that with rare exceptions (Kobe, Luka) 22 year old players are not even close to finished products (for good or ill)

[Winter]

I'm okay with 'being realistic' but that has to include the fact that with rare exceptions (Kobe, Luka) 22 year old players are not even close to finished products (for good or ill)

I never said he was a finished product, but I understand your point. He might be the next DFS. However, I do think the Mavericks have had time to evaluate him either way. And because he's a draft pick, there are certain things they have to consider regarding salary that they didn't have to consider with DFS. The Mavericks weren't paying DFS 3 million a year during his first year. They were paying him 600K and he had already spent 4 years in a college program. They could afford to work through his weaknesses. However, he impressed people so quickly that he started getting rotation minutes in his first season. And he would be dirt cheap for two more years.

In college, DFS was well established:

"As a sophomore in 2013–14, Finney-Smith was named SEC Sixth Man of the Year,"
"As a junior in 2014–15, Finney-Smith was named second-team All-SEC by the coaches and was Florida's leading scorer (13.1), rebounder (6.2) and three-point shooter (.426)"
"As a senior in 2015–16, Finney-Smith was named second-team All-SEC by the coaches and third-team All-SEC by the Associated Press"

With only one year of college, Josh Green was always more of a crap shoot... and a more expensive one to maintain than DFS ever was. I don't think Green is going to be given the luxury of a club option in 2023 (when he's scheduled to make 4.7 Mil. a year). That's too expensive for what he brings.

But yes, he could turn it around in one more year. I just don't think that's likely from what we've seen the last two years. Honestly, I think Josh Green's value is best used in a trade package. I think the Mavs would get more out of him in that way.

[vfromlmf]

Green has been here long enough to evaluate. He will likely never be a starter anywhere.

Held his own as a starter last night. 

Per 48 - 10 REB - 7 AST - 19 PTS 

...and 7 fouls 

[Winter]

Held his own as a starter last night. 

Yep, he did. Can't argue with that.

[audiosway]

I think we need to be more realistic about our own players. Green has been here long enough to evaluate. He will likely never be a starter anywhere. He is probably closer to Justin Jackson than DFS. He doesn't worry opponents and his only real offense is right around the basket.

We have to give him every opportunity because he's our draft pick. Yes, the playoffs will be a good experience, but he will be lucky to play 10 minutes in the playoffs. 

In one of those NBA profiles registering "Pros and Cons" only has one item in the Pro column that says, "Brings a lot of energy," then it's likely you're an expendable player. Unless something drastically changes, this is not a player that's offered a second contract.

If players are developed correctly most won't be NBA players until they are 24-25. Very few are like a Luka, Kobe, MJ, etc. DFS is coming into his own now as has been mentioned. He's 29. With the way Kidd has Green playing I could see him playing a role on a contender in a couple of years. He may be a starter or he may be a bench player. Only time will tell. However, you can't deny the kid can play Defense. That's what really matters. The shots will start to fall with time and confidence. That D though. He gave Butler all he could handle when he guarded him. Butler had to start playing bully ball with him to make a dent. That really says something about the kid. (But Maxi though. Wow)

Give him a couple of years or being in the rotation. I hate that these kids come out now so young. People don't realize that Bird was like 22-23 when he entered the NBA. Players used to play 3-4 years of college back then and it made them better pros. They actually came into the league with fundamentals. Now we see a ton of busts because they just come in too early I think. 

I think Green actually has some potential to be a good rotation player. He just needs time and Kidd is giving him not only that but the attention he needs too. Some of those passes he's throwing right now are just sick. With a guy like Luka on the team that becomes infectious.

[mvossman]

I never said he was a finished product, but I understand your point. He might be the next DFS. However, I do think the Mavericks have had time to evaluate him either way. And because he's a draft pick, there are certain things they have to consider regarding salary that they didn't have to consider with DFS. The Mavericks weren't paying DFS 3 million a year during his first year. They were paying him 600K and he had already spent 4 years in a college program. They could afford to work through his weaknesses. However, he impressed people so quickly that he started getting rotation minutes in his first season. And he would be dirt cheap for two more years.

In college, DFS was well established:

"As a sophomore in 2013–14, Finney-Smith was named SEC Sixth Man of the Year,"
"As a junior in 2014–15, Finney-Smith was named second-team All-SEC by the coaches and was Florida's leading scorer (13.1), rebounder (6.2) and three-point shooter (.426)"
"As a senior in 2015–16, Finney-Smith was named second-team All-SEC by the coaches and third-team All-SEC by the Associated Press"

With only one year of college, Josh Green was always more of a crap shoot... and a more expensive one to maintain than DFS ever was. I don't think Green is going to be given the luxury of a club option in 2023 (when he's scheduled to make 4.7 Mil. a year). That's too expensive for what he brings.

But yes, he could turn it around in one more year. I just don't think that's likely from what we've seen the last two years. Honestly, I think Josh Green's value is best used in a trade package. I think the Mavs would get more out of him in that way.

While I completely disagree with statements like "Green is closer to Justin Jackson than DFS", I do agree that being a first round draft pick means the clock starts ticking a lot sooner than it does for undrafted guys.  Its a strong argument for going after more experienced guys when drafting in the late first round, especially in a year when Covid is going to impact development.  I will never understand why this FO drafted three projects in a Covid year while also being in a win now mode.  

It still kills me we didn't draft Bane (although I didn't know he would be this good, this quickly) but Green is still a year younger than Bane was when he entered the league.  If I were a betting man, I would lean towards Green getting that club option.

[Mapka]

I think we need to be more realistic about our own players. Green has been here long enough to evaluate. He will likely never be a starter anywhere. He is probably closer to Justin Jackson than DFS. He doesn't worry opponents and his only real offense is right around the basket.

I also think we have to be more realistic about our own.
Green has been here long enough to evaluate. But we haven't seen him most of the time. Well half of them who have seen him aren't there any more.

We can see glimpses of what could be, but the coaches see him everyday.

The Mavs never were hesitent in giving away or cutting players, they didn't believe in any more.

He is still here, he even gets minutes and even started as a sub.

If he is worth more in a trade than as a player he is gone. But do decide on not picking up his option now seems premature.

[Winter]

While I completely disagree with statements like "Green is closer to Justin Jackson than DFS", I do agree that being a first round draft pick means the clock starts ticking a lot sooner than it does for undrafted guys

Justin Jackson was playing more minutes per game and scoring more points per game than Josh Green at the same time in their respective careers. They were drafted at almost the same spot. DFS, on the other hand, was already averaging 20 MPG and was a standard rotation player. So my statement is statistically true.

Remember there was a time we all thought Justin Jackson was about turn the corner just before his third year. Almost everyone thought he was a solid rotation player then. Then his 3-point shot disappeared, and he became an afterthought.

I agree that we have to give Green more opportunities this season, so I don't think he's trash or anything of the sort. I just think fans become blind to their own player's limitations. Energy is not a skill set. Josh Green is not an offensive threat to an opposing team, and having a player suddenly develop a decent jump shot is not something that comes easy.

And I agree with you about Bane. He had the tools already in place. It's hard to understand the Mavs draft during most years.

[Branduil]

I feel like the Justin Jackson comparison is only happening because of their hair, lol.

JJ showed flashes but I never really felt like he understood the game of basketball. He had a lot of energy but it often wasn't productive. Green is at least a better defender than he ever was. But I don't know, I wasn't sure Green would ever become a usable basketball player so I guess he's already surpassed my expectations.

[Winter]

I feel like the Justin Jackson comparison is only happening because of their hair, lol.

JJ showed flashes but I never really felt like he understood the game of basketball. He had a lot of energy but it often wasn't productive. Green is at least a better defender than he ever was. But I don't know, I wasn't sure Green would ever become a usable basketball player so I guess he's already surpassed my expectations.

I pretty much agree with all of that. From what I hear, Green has a better work ethic. But JJ had a three-point shot early on. That was a valuable enough skill to get him more minutes. Green better find a 3-point shot if he's going to stick. I don't think it's more complicated than that.

[SleepingHero]

I pretty much agree with all of that. From what I hear, Green has a better work ethic. But JJ had a three-point shot early on. That was a valuable enough skill to get him more minutes. Green better find a 3-point shot if he's going to stick. I don't think it's more complicated than that.

I will say I absolutely positively 100% thought Green was going to become the next Justin Anderson or Domonique Jones etc. So far he's showed more than both of them in his 2nd year. Simba actually had some flashes of what Green is giving us right now, without the great passing Green provides.

I'm hopeful he actually makes a leap.

[mvossman]

Justin Jackson was playing more minutes per game and scoring more points per game than Josh Green at the same time in their respective careers. They were drafted at almost the same spot. DFS, on the other hand, was already averaging 20 MPG and was a standard rotation player. So my statement is statistically true.

Remember there was a time we all thought Justin Jackson was about turn the corner just before his third year. Almost everyone thought he was a solid rotation player then. Then his 3-point shot disappeared, and he became an afterthought.

I agree that we have to give Green more opportunities this season, so I don't think he's trash or anything of the sort. I just think fans become blind to their own player's limitations. Energy is not a skill set. Josh Green is not an offensive threat to an opposing team, and having a player suddenly develop a decent jump shot is not something that comes easy.

And I agree with you about Bane. He had the tools already in place. It's hard to understand the Mavs draft during most years.

I think the big difference between Jackson and Green is that Jackson was a total sieve on defense and Green is already better than average NBA defender.  That is why we had so much patience with DFS, because he was a good defender.  The minutes difference was about where the team was at the time they started out (effectively tanking in Justin's first two years).

[Winter]

I think the big difference between Jackson and Green is that Jackson was a total sieve on defense and Green is already better than average NBA defender.  That is why we had so much patience with DFS, because he was a good defender. 

In regards to DFS, this is not reflective of their rookie play.  The Mavs had DFS playing because he was better prepared for the NBA than Green. It wasn't patience. He was getting rotation minutes his rookie season. DFS had 4 years of college basketball. He knew where to be on the court. He knew what to do when he didn't have the basketball. His 3-point shot in college was better than Green's 3-point stat. DFS was ready for those minutes.

We can make the case it will take Green longer to develop because he wasn't playing much college ball. I'm OK with that. But no matter how you work it, Green has to have a 3-point shot. Very few wings are ever going to survive in the NBA without it these days. And in Green's position, he must have confidence in shooting perimeter shots. That why JJ is a comparison. Green is better than JJ athletically, on defense, and lot of other ways. But JJ got more minutes in Dallas than Green because he was confident enough on offense.

If Green develops that perimeter shot by the end of this season, then great. But he's much more expensive to develop than DFS. Being "good" on defense is not enough to keep an NBA wing around on your roster for 4-5 million a year.

[Chicagojk]

Personally, I think there is a little revisionist history on Justin Jackson.  He was a really good player in college.  Really good.  Better than Josh Green.  But again, Jackson stayed 3 years, Green only 1.   Jackson game just hasn't translated well to the pros....yet.   He is not a good enough three point shooter and I think he was an odd fit as a 3.   He was too small for a 4 and that was probably where he had to have success.   

For Green, I think the best way young players get on the floor is to gain trust with the coaching staff that you can defend.  Green has done this.   Once you are on the floor, you can expand your game to other areas.   If you are not on the floor, it is really tough to do this in practice.   This is the best kind of experience for a young player.   Young players develop in different ways.  Sometimes it is a gradual jump and other times it is a couple of pretty big jumps.   Some never improve.   I have really liked what I have seen from Green recently.   Now, I don't think he is ever better than Bane or Maxey.   Bey too...although I would like to hold final judgement on that for now.  

There are definitely things I want to see improvement with Green moving forward.  Although I am happy now.  This offseason I mentioned several times that it would be a bad sign if Green didn't force his way to minutes this year.  It started out rough this year but he has now earned minutes.  Progress.

[SleepingHero]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpWTW3qGy50

[mvossman]

In regards to DFS, this is not reflective of their rookie play.  The Mavs had DFS playing because he was better prepared for the NBA than Green. It wasn't patience. He was getting rotation minutes his rookie season. DFS had 4 years of college basketball. He knew where to be on the court. He knew what to do when he didn't have the basketball. His 3-point shot in college was better than Green's 3-point stat. DFS was ready for those minutes.

We can make the case it will take Green longer to develop because he wasn't playing much college ball. I'm OK with that. But no matter how you work it, Green has to have a 3-point shot. Very few wings are ever going to survive in the NBA without it these days. And in Green's position, he must have confidence in shooting perimeter shots. That why JJ is a comparison. Green is better than JJ athletically, on defense, and lot of other ways. But JJ got more minutes in Dallas than Green because he was confident enough on offense.

If Green develops that perimeter shot by the end of this season, then great. But he's much more expensive to develop than DFS. Being "good" on defense is not enough to keep an NBA wing around on your roster for 4-5 million a year.

It was patience from the standpoint that it took DFS 4 years to shoot better than 31%.  As you say, if you can't develop a perimeter shot, you have very limited value as a wing.  Right now based on any advanced metric you look at Green is about as effective on the court this year as DFS was his first three years in the league.  In fact, they gave Dorian 4 mil per year before he started hitting from the perimeter.  Based on that, don't see why they wouldn't pay Green, especially if shows continued improvement next year.