Non Knee-Jerk Takes

[ballsrchr]

This is a great thread.  I can't add much more.  We do need another big.  I really like bobi as a man...and before I ever watched him play to any degree...thought he was just a carnival act, but no, he is really a fine basketball player.  Bobi is just not mobile enough to fit the team.  He's such a great team mate I'm sure it will be hard to replace him.   But...we need a very mobile, offensive minded center who can play defense.

I really like Dragic and think he would be good for Luka.  But we've been talking about getting him for--it seems like forever, I know it is probably only a few years.  I hope we can get him before he is too old to help Luka.  Is there really a chance for/with the buyout?

KP just didn't fit and was an injury time bomb.  It feels like we paid through the nose to trade him, but hopefully a new scene and team will help Dinwiddie and Bertans return to viable form.  And...the two smaller payrolls may be easier to trade at a later time...if necessary.

We didn't lose our core.  Hopefully we strengthened our bench.  I'm an optimist, but I still can't help feeling like we are holding the smelly end of the stick.

[Kammrath]

So much of this is about expectations. 

When we traded for KP and gave up 2 first round picks we all expected him to be a STAR and a fit with Luka.

Neither happened. But that is water under the bridge.

I think if you take out what the Mavs paid to get KP and just analyze who he IS and has been, this trade is a fair swap. The "myth" of what KP was supposed to be is not real. The real KP had this value. Plain and simple.

[ReunionMav]

Sounds like our evaluation is that no one in Maverickland will miss KP. We may miss the occasional shot blocking but obviously the value around the league at his salary is not good. 

For this year I am looking for a resurgence from our new guys for the long playoff run so we have good asset options this summer. Now we can watch them for hopefully about 50 games not just 27.

[TXBamanut]

We definitely need to add a big.

And Chriss will not return to the game for knee soreness.  Just great.  We effectively, with the release of Moses, have Powell, Maxi and Boban as the only 5s on the roster....

sigh.

[Kammrath]

now you'll probably try to run me off too for disagreeing.

Mad about something?

[TXBamanut]

Mad about something?

I deleted it because I thought better about it the minute I posted it.  I never considered you'd dig it up, read it and come at me.  But it figures, doesn't it.

[Dirknows]

Obviously upset they didn’t get compensated in a young player or pick (gave up a pick actually) for taking on longer and possibly worse contracts. But it is easier to trade 16-17 million than 33-35 million. I’m gonna be optimistic and say that Bertans starts to hit his 3’s again with all the open looks Luka gets him, Dinwiddie can be a scoring punch off the bench and run the offense. In theory they are both better fits than KP, but now they are so thin in the front court. Could really have used Bryant, Gafford or Hachimura in return. But we have Bertans and Dinwiddie and I will root for them to play their best when they are here.

[Kammrath]

I never considered you'd dig it up, read it and come at me.  But it figures, doesn't it.

What are you talking about?

You posted. It was there. I asked a question. THEN you must have deleted it.

[SatnamSingh]

https://twitter.com/MagicJohnson/status/...5765676040

Ok I was starting to come around until I saw Magic liked it.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/IsaacLHarris/status/...8792125440

[Jommybone]

The State of the Mavs 2/10/22 (according to Jommybone)

Thank you for those of you who posted thoughtful takes rather than one-sentence reactions. Was hoping we might have a whole thread like that. Oh well. 

I see three things that, perhaps, are worth pointing out. I’ve labeled them according to my favorite Spaghetti Western.

The Good

The team can move on. Luka’s offensive explosion tonight, a coincidence? Dunno. But the defense can switch everything. Nobody is too weak to hold their position. The spacing is better. And that two-man game with Dwight is magic. I am not less interested in the team sans Zing. 

Perhaps I noticed the lack of rim protection in the 4th. That’s the big worry for me. Only Maxi and Bobi have that skill set. But the defense plays hard. Lots of very athletic, long guys banging hard in there. Not unlike the Clips in that regard. 

Especially love Luka saying he’s better defensively this year. I see it. The numbers show it. I’m expecting him to take more and more of that load upon himself. It’s what competitors do. Can the new guys help? I’m not banking on it. But like Gladys Knight herself, just give him some pips and Luka can get it done. 

The Bad

The plan to rebuild KP’s image and value fooled no one. Well, maybe me a little. But not anyone who could actually make a trade. I can’t argue with the plan. A trade last summer certainly wasn’t going to bring anything back, so trying to turn it around made good sense. It just simply didn’t work. And finally, today, they gave up. 

The Ugly

It’s just sinking in. The mistake wasn’t last summer. That was way too late. It wasn’t the June 2019 max deal. It was already too late back then. Having made the max commitment at the time of the trade, they had to keep their word. And that mistake was over 3 years ago. A package of DSJ, DeAndre Jordan, and Wes Matthews was too high a of a price. Nothing wrong with taking on the contract ballast of THJ and Trey Burke, which was also part of the price tag. But the commitment to Kristaps himself was just a bad, bad choice. 

Who knew. I sure didn’t. I rejoiced at what looked like the steal of the century when that trade went down. But with hindsight, that was the error. And it hurts to admit it. Those jokers in New York were right to dump him. And even with the pile of garbage they got from us, it was a good deal. Egg on Dallas faces, including my own. 

At least that’s how it appears to me tonight.

[Jym]

The State of the Mavs 2/10/22 (according to Jommybone)

Thank you for those of you who posted thoughtful takes rather than one-sentence reactions. Was hoping we might have a whole thread like that. Oh well. 

I see three things that, perhaps, are worth pointing out. I’ve labeled them according to my favorite Spaghetti Western.

The Good

The team can move on. Luka’s offensive explosion tonight, a coincidence? Dunno. But the defense can switch everything. Nobody is too weak to hold their position. The spacing is better. And that two-man game with Dwight is magic. I am not less interested in the team sans Zing. 

Perhaps I noticed the lack of rim protection in the 4th. That’s the big worry for me. Only Maxi and Bobi have that skill set. But the defense plays hard. Lots of very athletic, long guys banging hard in there. Not unlike the Clips in that regard. 

Especially love Luka saying he’s better defensively this year. I see it. The numbers show it. I’m expecting him to take more and more of that load upon himself. It’s what competitors do. Can the new guys help? I’m not banking on it. But like Gladys Knight herself, just give him some pips and Luka can get it done. 

The Bad

The plan to rebuild KP’s image and value fooled no one. Well, maybe me a little. But not anyone who could actually make a trade. I can’t argue with the plan. A trade last summer certainly wasn’t going to bring anything back, so trying to turn it around made good sense. It just simply didn’t work. And finally, today, they gave up. 

The Ugly

It’s just sinking in. The mistake wasn’t last summer. That was way too late. It wasn’t the June 2019 max deal. It was already too late back then. Having made the max commitment at the time of the trade, they had to keep their word. And that mistake was over 3 years ago. A package of DSJ, DeAndre Jordan, and Wes Matthews was too high a of a price. Nothing wrong with taking on the contract ballast of THJ and Trey Burke, which was also part of the price tag. But the commitment to Kristaps himself was just a bad, bad choice. 

Who knew. I sure didn’t. I rejoiced at what looked like the steal of the century when that trade went down. But with hindsight, that was the error. And it hurts to admit it. Those jokers in New York were right to dump him. And even with the pile of garbage they got from us, it was a good deal. Egg on Dallas faces, including my own. 

At least that’s how it appears to me tonight.

All-in-all I'd jump into a similar deal again if we can claw together the assets for it
No guarantee but probably the only way we're going to stumble into a true #2 to pair with Luka
Win some, lose some

[hakeemfaan]

Let me get this right. Jumping quickly to praise this trade can also be considered as a knee jerk reaction…correct?

[hakeemfaan]

The State of the Mavs 2/10/22 (according to Jommybone)

Thank you for those of you who posted thoughtful takes rather than one-sentence reactions. Was hoping we might have a whole thread like that. Oh well. 

I see three things that, perhaps, are worth pointing out. I’ve labeled them according to my favorite Spaghetti Western.

The Good

The team can move on. Luka’s offensive explosion tonight, a coincidence? Dunno. But the defense can switch everything. Nobody is too weak to hold their position. The spacing is better. And that two-man game with Dwight is magic. I am not less interested in the team sans Zing. 

Perhaps I noticed the lack of rim protection in the 4th. That’s the big worry for me. Only Maxi and Bobi have that skill set. But the defense plays hard. Lots of very athletic, long guys banging hard in there. Not unlike the Clips in that regard. 

Especially love Luka saying he’s better defensively this year. I see it. The numbers show it. I’m expecting him to take more and more of that load upon himself. It’s what competitors do. Can the new guys help? I’m not banking on it. But like Gladys Knight herself, just give him some pips and Luka can get it done. 

The Bad

The plan to rebuild KP’s image and value fooled no one. Well, maybe me a little. But not anyone who could actually make a trade. I can’t argue with the plan. A trade last summer certainly wasn’t going to bring anything back, so trying to turn it around made good sense. It just simply didn’t work. And finally, today, they gave up. 

The Ugly

It’s just sinking in. The mistake wasn’t last summer. That was way too late. It wasn’t the June 2019 max deal. It was already too late back then. Having made the max commitment at the time of the trade, they had to keep their word. And that mistake was over 3 years ago. A package of DSJ, DeAndre Jordan, and Wes Matthews was too high a of a price. Nothing wrong with taking on the contract ballast of THJ and Trey Burke, which was also part of the price tag. But the commitment to Kristaps himself was just a bad, bad choice. 

Who knew. I sure didn’t. I rejoiced at what looked like the steal of the century when that trade went down. But with hindsight, that was the error. And it hurts to admit it. Those jokers in New York were right to dump him. And even with the pile of garbage they got from us, it was a good deal. Egg on Dallas faces, including my own. 

At least that’s how it appears to me tonight.

This seems like a knee jerk reaction too. None of us know at this point if this trade in the long run is good or not. At the time of the KP trade the correct thing would have been to not give 2. FRPs and I said it at that time. Not in hindsight.  I said it then due to his injury history and it panned out that way here too. At the time of this trade the correct thing to do was to not have blinked and demanded pick(s) from the Wiz. The Wiz were even more desperate than us. Moving Bertans so called manageable contract might necessitate a future FRP. So let’s hold off on declaring this a success. KP for all his warts was a productive player here when healthy.  

I know you don’t want to wade into other threads and so you started your own.  However if you get a chance read @"TXBamanut" excellent synopsis of the trade.  It is an excellent  post that better outlines the good and bad of this trade while acknowledging that at the end of the day we will root for our boys in blue.

[omahen]

I don't mind KP being traded. Looks like this was their primary goal. I also don't mind who he got traded for. 

However:

1. It is a fact that Mavs were giving up best player in the deal. As others have pointed out, Dinwiddie and Bertans both carry significant injury risk with them. Even before the trade, some analysts have pointed at Bertans as worst contract in the league. Dinwiddie contract is no pearl either and they are both on a down year. So Mavs were trading best player with similar money owed to a team, that is desperate for relevance (not tanking team). How well will those players perform for Dallas is basically irrelevant in this discussion, as is future flexibility they allegedly provide. Fact is, their trade value at this moment is very low. Based on all this, Mavs didn't get enough in return in this deal. The goal of trading KP was executed very poorly.

2. I am extremely concerned what this means for Brunson and true Mavs intentions regarding him. 

3. Roster construction will be just awful. Mavs will have three bench players paid over 15 million each. Bench player paid over 15 million is a bad contract in its very definition. They are also not some high upside players, they are all vets near 30 year old. I can agree that flexibility has increased, but it remains to be seen if Mavs will be able to take advantage of it. We have years of proof where good contracts of the likes of Maxi, Powell and similar generated zero possibility for upgrades.

[MFFL]

While I hate the return we got for KP, I like the trade.

To me it shows that Nico/Kidd are in charge of the franchise and they are not beholden to the players the old regime acquired. 

Yes we resigned THJ but I think that was more of a Nico forced to make an immediate decision and deciding that he wants to keep this asset and he'll make a correction later if needed.

But the reason that I'm sure that Cuban has backed off is his quote about the trade -

"But we needed that shooter [Bertans] and we needed another ball handler [Dinwiddie] who could create a shot, and unfortunately that was the only way we were going to get them. It was that simple — getting two guys who fill roles that we really needed.."

Old Cuban would have never said something like that. He believed the adage that the team that got the best player won the trade. 

And as I said before, there is NO WAY that Cuban's ego could EVER admit that he lost the trade with the Knicks. If Cuban was in charge, there isn't a possibility that KP would have been moved. The sunk cost and embarrassment would have been too much.

[Kammrath]

there is NO WAY that Cuban's ego could EVER admit that he lost the trade with the Knicks. If Cuban was in charge, there isn't a possibility that KP would have been moved. The sunk cost and embarrassment would have been too much.

Yep a clear sign to me that Nico is really in charge.

[Chicagojk]

Although it was reported, who knows if true, that Cuban has been wanting to get Dinwiddie since January.   So it could be more of the same......

[DanSchwartzgan]

"If you have to eat a turd, don't nibble" - famous philosopher

What We Gave Up

Thanks for this thread.  I had meetings and didn't see the news until well after it happened.  My initial reaction was shock at how low KP's value had fallen.  We've contemplated deals with Washington and taking these and other bad contracts.  But those ideas always began with also getting Avdija or Rui or a pick or something.  Washington had some expiring players and we didn't get those either.  Even now, I don't count myself angry or pleased.  Just a little numb from the shock.

I am in the camp of being glad we no longer have to cater to KP's desire for certain kinds of touches.  He is antithetical to the way we run our O.  Maybe you make those concessions to a superstar center who can create for himself, but KP isn't one of those (let the Jokic watch begin...at least until he extends this summer).

I think we've probably reduced our near-term ceiling and raised our near-term floor.  The lower ceiling coming from missing an idealized KP that hasn't existed very often (he's net negative in On Minus Off the last two seasons despite his good advanced stats this year).  The floor raised because we actually have bodies on the floor rather than in rehab.  All in all, it was time to eat the turd or rip the band-aid off or however you want to say it.  It is just shocking still that a player with a LEBRON of 4.07 didn't bring more than this.


What We Gained

I'm not going to pretend I hate Bertans and Dinwiddie.  I spoke positively about them in recent posts.  For context, the Dinwiddie posts assumed a swap for THJ and the Bertans posts assumed he was part of the price for getting other things (Avdija and the Wiz 2023 pick would have been nice).

If Brunson is going to start, we need someone to run the second unit.  You could do a lot worse than Dinwiddie for this role.  He was a near all-star in 19/20 carrying a rag-tag bunch of nothings to the playoffs.  The O in Brooklyn always worked well despite his lack of a three point shot.  He is very much a down hill "get to the basket" PG which is exactly what Kidd has Luka and JB doing.  Everyone is a little hindered coming off an ACL.  But, there is upside here compared to his current stats in Washington.  If he will accept his role, I have absolutely no problem having SD as a high usage guy running out there with Maxi, Bertans, Green and one of the starters (probably a defensive wing).

I also said positive things about Bertans.  I doubt he forgot how to shoot over the summer.  I envisioned him off the bench spreading the floor next to Powell's rim running.  Now, Powell is a starter and Maxi isn't much of a rim runner.  I still think it can work.  Everyone knows Bertans doesn't play D (so maybe being next to Maxi isn't so bad).  Yet, he tends to be a positive net contributor to winning over his history.  The On Minus Off's the three years prior to this one have been +10.6, +7.9 and +6.4.  The O ratings when he was on the floor were crazy good.  I don't mind having him in this role either.  I'd just feel better if we got something else of value in the deal.


Where We Go From Here

Well, we better hope the recent excellent play we've been getting from Powell continues (he was +13 last night against a center who easily overpowers him in the paint).  As I pointed out recently, he's had a ton of double digit plus games against playoff teams in the past six weeks.  That was kind of fun when it was optional and KP was returning any day.  Now, it is a necessity.  

I assume we'll continue with the current starting five and bring Maxi off the bench.  He HAS TO STAY HEALTHY.  His role as backup to both Powell and DFS at C and PF is critical.  Chriss isn't ready for prime time yet.  Bertans and SD will ease the minutes burden some (DFS was over 40 and Luka was almost 40 last night).  I could see Maxi starting and Bertans off the bench, but we don't really have a viable alternative at center besides DP and Maxi (so they probably share most of the minutes at C).

The bench then is Maxi/Bertans/Green/Dinwiddie playing with a starter until THJ returns and likely takes minutes from Green.  I'm pleased there are still developmental minutes for Green.  We have a fairly obvious top 10 with everyone healthy and lots of ways to mix and match.  I'd feel much better if we had another viable PNR big like Holmes, but the way we run things, bigs aren't the only ones setting picks and we don't always play for the roll (looking forward to the Luka/Bertans pick and pop...how do you stop that?).

I still think we will win a lot of regular season games and will be favored in the first round.  The issue is what happens when we see Phoenix or GS in the second round.  We can take Ayton away, but it requires helping off of a really good player.  We are a year away from losing DP and Maxi in free agency.  They will be 32 and 31 the summer of 23.  I think job number one this summer is to get some help there in the middle.  We may find that THJ isn't needed any more and maybe we trade him and 22 and something else for a big (From a scheme standpoint, I'm curious if we want a shot blocker occupying the paint or a mobile guy who switches well).  

While it is true that it may be easier to deal two smaller bad contracts than one monstrous bad contract, it is still difficult to see an assets based path to a second star unless that second star forces their way here.  We won't have the full MLE to play with, so player(s) plus pick(s) is the path to improvement and I'm not sure we could realistically trade for a second star given those assets.  I'll be surprised if we do much more than just fringe improvements.

This is how I see the roster currently.  No gaping holes, but still short of a second guy you have to game plan for.  This starting group has been successful lately (but probably doesn't frighten a top four seed).  I do think the bench will be MUCH better.

Powell/Maxi
DFS/Bertans
Bullock/Green (THJ)
Brunson/Dinwiddie
Luka/Dinwiddie

[Jommybone]

This seems like a knee jerk reaction too. None of us know at this point if this trade in the long run is good or not. 

knee-jerk is relative, no? I spent an hour thinking about it, a couple of hours sifting through other threads, and maybe 20 mins actually writing the post. That’s knee-jerk level for making a career change, sure. But for a post on an internet discussion board?

Your disagreement is welcome. But no, that post isn’t my idea of a knee-jerk reaction.