The X-Factor Tim Hardaway Jr.: DAL to give long term extension?

[SleepingHero]

If Mavs did extend THJ I don't think Mavs could clear a max spot even if they dumped Wright for nothing.

Of course they can. Why do you assume THJ is unmovable if you extend him? If Giannis comes knocking, you trade any 2 man combination of Wright, Powell and THJ to get to max spot. I don't think there will be any other max player. Is 29 year old Oladipo a max player?

Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Lebron James, Blake Griffin, and Chris Paul all have player options that year.

Gordon Hayward, Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, Demar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday, Rudy Gobert, Anthony Davis (if he elects to take his PO, which he probably won't but still). Steven Adams, Oladipo like you mentioned. 

And those are just the big names. There are still a slew of other quality role players available.

[omahen]

Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Lebron James, Blake Griffin, and Chris Paul all have player options that year.

We already went through this excercise. You have Blake and Paul on max player list!?

Out of all the players you mentioned - Kawhi and George are max players but something will have to go terribly wrong in LA for them to actually take it. Davis will be 99,99 % off the market. 

Gobert and Oladipo are perhaps max players. All the rest mentioned will be far from max 2 years from now!

[BigDirk41]

If he keeps it up, he’s good enough to be the fourth best player on a very good team.  That’s also how he should be paid, like a veteran fourth best player on a championship contender.

I've seen this comment twice now. Scott was the other one who said it. What is the going rate for a 4th best player on a contender? Honestly I don't see why he can't be the 3rd best player on a contender if KP takes that next step and we add 2 more legit starters to Luka/KP/THJ. I don't know, but I wouldn't think teams 4th best players make 15-18 million per year which is what THJ will get if he keeps up this level of play. Some are acting like he can just walk and we'll be fine. Losing THJ over money would be a huge loss at this point.

[SleepingHero]

Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Lebron James, Blake Griffin, and Chris Paul all have player options that year.

We already went through this excercise. You have Blake and Paul on max player list!?

Out of all the players you mentioned - Kawhi and George are max players but something will have to go terribly wrong in LA for them to actually take it. Davis will be 99,99 % off the market. 

Gobert and Oladipo are perhaps max players. All the rest mentioned will be far from max 2 years from now!

I'd put all those players at around max/max level players. Chris Paul is having an arguably MVP level season and is making OKC over perform to an insane level. So yes, he's still a max level player. There's no way he opts out of his contract, but if he did I'm sure there'd be teams lining up to have Paul do what he did in OKC to their team. Blake Griffin last year had his best season as a pro, and this year he's been plagued with injuries. Would I want the Mavs to give Blake Griffin a max contract? No. But could a desperate team that never gets free agents, like Orlando, throw money at him? I wouldn't rule it out. 

Without going through every single player and their potential scenarios, I'd put all those players at around that level. Who's to say that LA blows up and Lebron decides to leave? Or AD takes a 1+1 to get to that 10 year vet level for his max contract and Lebron then declines significantly and he wants out in 2021? What if PG and Kawhi fall short in the playoffs and PG wants to go form a superteam somewhere else? There are so many factors, it's hard to make predictions a year out. This time last year there would have been a negative 0% chance I would've said that OKC would trade Westbrook to the Rockets, and the Clips will form a super team with Kawhi and PG. 

And the whole idea of "he's not a max level player" is kind of moot because all it takes is 1 team to drive up the market for a player. We saw that last summer with Al Horford. If 1 team decides to throw a max contract at Jared Dudley, then he's a max player, regardless of whether or not he deserves it. And summer of 2021 is next year, not 2 years from now.

[DanSchwartzgan]

If he keeps it up, he’s good enough to be the fourth best player on a very good team.  That’s also how he should be paid, like a veteran fourth best player on a championship contender.

I've seen this comment twice now. Scott was the other one who said it. What is the going rate for a 4th best player on a contender? Honestly I don't see why he can't be the 3rd best player on a contender if KP takes that next step and we add 2 more legit starters to Luka/KP/THJ. I don't know, but I wouldn't think teams 4th best players make 15-18 million per year which is what THJ will get if he keeps up this level of play. Some are acting like he can just walk and we'll be fine. Losing THJ over money would be a huge loss at this point.

I don't agree with the approach.  You pay him what the market demands.

Sadly, I took the time to do the math anyway and you are pretty close.  I used 20/21 salary since that is the earliest we are talking about a change.  You are pretty close.  I came up with $14.7mm, but the Laker's number is super low and brings down the average.  I also didn't assume any contender added a big dollar player (probably not realistic), but simply kept their own guys.  I think your range is reasonable for what the fourth best player on the top 12-14 team is paying.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/MavsPR/status/1237054454211522568

[StepBackJay]

If Mavs did extend THJ I don't think Mavs could clear a max spot even if they dumped Wright for nothing.

Of course they can. Why do you assume THJ is unmovable if you extend him? If Giannis comes knocking, you trade any 2 man combination of Wright, Powell and THJ to get to max spot. I don't think there will be any other max player. Is 29 year old Oladipo a max player?

I wasn't thinking he would be unmovable, I was thinking if you extend him you are likely doing so to keep him rather than immediately move him. At this rate I wouldn't hate extending him if it means the Mavs are finally giving up on big fish hunting but I doubt they are. I also don't know what the rush is, same with Powell. If he opts in next year then why do you have to do anything?

I like Tim's game. For forever we wanted a big SG and finally we have one.

[ItsGoTime]

For forever we wanted a big SG and finally we have one.

Ya, right at the moment we got a BIG PG. I'm good with keeping THJ, especially if he keeps improving his game (like the defensive end). With Luka though, it's hard not to think we need a PG defender in THJ's spot though.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Quote below is from Saad Yousuf in an article in The Athletic yesterday about Hardaway.  It doesn't name a number, but speaks to the logic of both side being interested in an extension this summer:

"If I’m Hardaway, I opt in and play the next year out and try to land a big deal in 2021. If I’m the Mavericks, I try to get a three or four-year extension done but it has to obviously come at a reasonable price that allows you to keep a deep bench intact and be prepared to make a move for another quality player. He’s their third-best player right now (a competition for that title with Dorian Finney-Smith, if you ask me) but if Hardaway is your fourth-best player, and you have a solid bench the way the Mavericks do, you can be a championship contender. That means you lock him in and get a player that’s better than him. It gets tricky, though, because he’s not exactly young anymore. He turns 28 in exactly one week, which means if he opted in and waited for the summer of 2021, he’d be a 29-year-old free agent. Going all in this next season could be a risky proposition for him, financially. Perhaps it’s in the best interest of both parties to agree on an extension for a good price."

https://theathletic.com/1663512/2020/03/...in-dallas/

[StepBackJay]

If he gets an extension it's starting at 19 or 20 mil/yr right? That seems like a lot to me still but I don't know maybe that's his value now? I feel like we would regret that extension.

[Hypermav]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/doylerader/...557012154e

"The contrast between how he performed off the bench and that of a starter are night and day. It’s also hard to explain why there’s such a stark contrast. Regardless, now that he’s there, he’s proven that he deserves to be in the starting lineup. Neither Hardaway nor the Mavericks are looking back. 

It’s too early to calculate Hardaway’s value to the team this season using Berri’s formula. For one, there isn’t a firm BRI number yet. However, it’s safe to say that his value skyrocketed this season compared to last. When the season ends, it’s extremely likely that his estimated salary will be something closer to what he is actually making. Perhaps more surprising, he may even be more valuable than that."

[ItsGoTime]

3rd/4th starters don’t get paid that much IMO. I’ve seen people say in the $12-15M/yr range. I’d prefer a declining contract/extension if it goes beyond 2 years (when he’s 31).

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

I've probably never been more wrong about a player...

With that being said, I'm still terrified of believing this is the real thing.

[ItsGoTime]

Looked at an earlier post I made in this thread about THJ's consistency, or lack thereof and wanted to explore how he's been doing since. Since that post, he has shown more and more scoring consistency. 

• He went on a stretch of 16 games where he never dipped below double digit scoring from Dec 18 through Jan 27th. 
  
• Scored 9 vs Pho on Jan 28th, 15 against Hou on Jan 31st then 7 against Atl on Feb 1st
  
• Hasn't looked back since then. His last 15 games he has averaged 21.4 ppg and only twice scored 14 pts (with one 15 pt, one 16 pt and one 17 pt game as well) as his low during that time.
  

I really hope he has turned that corner and plays this consistently for the rest of the season and through the playoffs.

---

I guess I say that and he wasn't actually all that consistent, he just consistently stayed above 14 ppg, which is the good thing. I'll post the last 15 games played points per game (coincidentally the streak started with Ind back on 2/3 and currently ends with that last Ind game) starting with the most recent and working backwards:

• 30 Ind
  
• Injured/sick DNP
  
• 18 NO
  
• 26 Chi
  
• 19 Min
  
• 15 Mia
  
• 17 SA
  
• 23 Min
  
• 33 Atl
  
• 16 Orl
  
• 19 Sac
  
• 33 Utah
  
• 14 Cha
  
• 19 Was
  
• 14 Mem
  
• 25 Ind
  

[radioaktiv]

3rd/4th starters don’t get paid that much IMO. I’ve seen people say in the $12-15M/yr range. I’d prefer a declining contract/extension if it goes beyond 2 years (when he’s 31).

I looked at salaries across the league, both this season and next.  THJ is better than most guys getting that money, and the ones who might be better than him aren't that much better considering just his play as starter.

I also looked at each team.  In this season of Big 2s, most 3rd-highest paid players are not as good or just about at par with Timmy, particularly those with that money.  See for yourself in your preferred site.

Based on the comparative salaries he seem to be actually worth more that 15M.  I say this not as my opinion but what I assume his market value will be if he hits free agency.

[BigDirk41]

If he gets an extension it's starting at 19 or 20 mil/yr right? That seems like a lot to me still but I don't know maybe that's his value now? I feel like we would regret that extension.

He's sure not resigning for 12-14 like some want. I think 15-18 per is safe to say at this point. 19-20 is possible with Cuban. I'd prefer 15-16 per personally.

[Mavs2019]

3rd/4th starters don’t get paid that much IMO. I’ve seen people say in the $12-15M/yr range. I’d prefer a declining contract/extension if it goes beyond 2 years (when he’s 31).

That´s where I am at, too. I just can´t see any team offering much more than $15M. Four years / 55 million: 16/14/13/12 with a player option for the last year, so he can opt out for a last better payday. Something like that seems reasonable and moveable.

[DanSchwartzgan]

3rd/4th starters don’t get paid that much IMO. I’ve seen people say in the $12-15M/yr range. I’d prefer a declining contract/extension if it goes beyond 2 years (when he’s 31).

We can do a fake internet loser shaves his head deal here if you like, but I see no way he extends for a starting number under 15.  This whole 3rd/4th starters don't get (fill in the blank) thing is kind of ridiculous.  Many of those contracts are 2-3 years old and don't represent the current cap.  Plus, 4th best players on good teams DO make about $15mm and 3rd best players make more than that.

Put yourself in Tim's shoes.  You are playing the best ball of your life and still in your prime.  Why on earth would you sign for less than the $71mm you got in 2017 with a starting number of $16.5mm?  Tim might take a discount from what he projects to be his 2021 number to get the security of a deal this summer.  Maybe that's $75mm instead of the $80mm or more he might get in 21.  If the Dallas offer is $12-$15mm, he'll just wait for free agency.

[omahen]

If the Dallas offer is $12-$15mm, he'll just wait for free agency.

Agree. Most likely he will opt in and resign next season. Dallas also shouldn't go all in this season with a hefty 4 year deal at 20 per or something, because the sample is still small. If I am Dallas: extension this season is 60 -70 mil for 4 years. You think you are worth more - prove it next season and we will discuss.

[ItsGoTime]

3rd/4th starters don’t get paid that much IMO. I’ve seen people say in the $12-15M/yr range. I’d prefer a declining contract/extension if it goes beyond 2 years (when he’s 31).

We can do a fake internet loser shaves his head deal here if you like, but I see no way he extends for a starting number under 15.  This whole 3rd/4th starters don't get (fill in the blank) thing is kind of ridiculous.  Many of those contracts are 2-3 years old and don't represent the current cap.  Plus, 4th best players on good teams DO make about $15mm and 3rd best players make more than that.

Put yourself in Tim's shoes.  You are playing the best ball of your life and still in your prime.  Why on earth would you sign for less than the $71mm you got in 2017 with a starting number of $16.5mm?  Tim might take a discount from what he projects to be his 2021 number to get the security of a deal this summer.  Maybe that's $75mm instead of the $80mm or more he might get in 21.  If the Dallas offer is $12-$15mm, he'll just wait for free agency.

So when I say 3-4th best players don’t make that much I guess you read that as me saying they don’t make much money? It was intended to say they don’t make $20M like he’s making now. 

I then went on to say I’ve mostly seen people say $12-15M/yr, unsaid was, without any resistance. I say it (without actually weighing in on whether or not that is what I’d pay him) and now there’s resistance. Cool stuff.

I’m starting to realize that in my attempt to be precise in my wording, I miss out on what others will perceive me saying. Trying to figure out how to remedy that, not sure how changeable it will be.

The main thing I am weighing in on is the declining contract. I will now weigh in on the amount, if it starts near $20M while not being declining, it is absolutely an overpay and bidding against ourselves for pretty much about a half season body of work.

Putting myself in Tim’s shoes is extremely hard for anyone to do. He’s saying all the right things for some to believe he would take a team friendly contract. However, I’m sure he is not blind to how much another team would be willing to give him (and has an agent that that is his job to inform him), so there is reason to believe that THJ as a businessman would not take any less. There are so many unknown elements to Tim’s shoes that it is impossible to know anything for certain.

Going by how the FO seemingly does things like this situation, it probably has little to do with putting oneself in Tim’s shoes, they’ll just make him an offer he can’t refuse.