Trade & FA 2023-24: Sexton On the Market? | ORL Likes Hartenstein?

[KillerLeft]

#1 is a very easy decision. I edited my post and said what I think it will actually cost to move his salary and I said Toronto’s SRP next year (mid 30’s?) or at most the Mavs FRP (high 20’s?)

OK, that’s valid.

What if it costs more? What is the going rate to absorb a year of salary at Hardaway’s level is two first rounders, whereas the cap space team in question actually wants Green enough to lower that sweetener asking price SIGNIFICANTLY? 

Now, that absolutely is me pushing the parameters farther than maybe they will go, but then again, maybe not. All I’m trying to do is suggest that there are possibilities that make finding a non-Hardaway solution to this problem possibly attractive.

what really irks me is when people read that stuff and then accuse me of hating or running down the players. My opinion on these players is relative to my opinions on the other players. Therefore, anyone less valuable than Derek Jones, Jr has to be considered as a POTENTIAL solution to this problem, regardless of whether or not they are the PREFERRED solution. 

And to your recent point, we must then consider COST of dumping as an additional piece of data. I’m sorry, I don’t want to give up on Green, but I might prefer to give up on him than to light two more 1st round picks on fire. I would say the exact same thing about Gafford.

[KillerLeft]

I think the range of your list makes sense.  Obviously the question of what it takes has to account for whether this is a complete absorption of salary or a partial absorption (with a cap room team) or a trade match.  Whether we are getting anything back in terms of draft equity also matters.  I still take the position that teams with championship aspirations (especially if we aren't successful in the next couple of weeks) don't just give away assets to stand still.  There is a world where the price to dump THJ is so high that you'd be better off putting the capital with an expiring player and trading for value rather than space.

FWIW, Dan Fravale on the Hardwood Knocks podcast mentioned Dallas "just sending two seconds to Detroit to get them to take THJ".  It wasn't a prediction or even well thought out.  It was more of a throwaway line as they were discussing what Dallas might do to keep DJJ.  The problem is Detroit might be done bottom dwelling.  There are rumors of guys they want to sign in free agency and rumors of trades they want to make for big dollar vets.  So, it isn't a certainty they will be in the business of absorbing contracts this summer.

One hope might be that the new GM decides to kick the can for a season to evaluate things.  I'm not sure 2 seconds is the highest and best use for cap room even if you are kicking the can.  But, expiring contracts will likely be valuable come February.  If they can rehab THJ and turn him into something for a team trying to manage cap space (or apron issue) for 25/26, then who knows.

On another podcast they were discussing Brooklyn's likely path.  One commentator thought they might be a candidate for a trade that preserves/creates cap room in 2025.  This might be the place DFS comes into play.  I'm not sure he makes sense on a team that already has PJ, Maxi and OMax at Dorian's best position.  Maybe he goes to a third team and Brooklyn gets THJ and a little something from both teams in terms of draft capital.  This kind of financial engineering (with an eye toward 2025) is another path to possible THJ trades besides the obvious cap room and TPE teams.  He's an NBA player who can be sold to a fan base (as often happens) despite the fact his best value is his expiring contract.

If the Mavs can turn Hardaway into air via the use of only two second round picks, they should jump on that. Problem solved.

I have gotten the sense from several of your recent posts that you aren’t quite sure how far you would be willing to go to retain DJJ. You haven’t quite said it in those terms, so I could be reading you wrong, but I almost feel like you are in the early stages of warning us he won’t be here, kind of like you did with Brunson back in the day. am I off on that?

[Smitty]

OK, that’s valid.

What if it costs more? What is the going rate to absorb a year of salary at Hardaway’s level is two first rounders, whereas the cap space team in question actually wants Green enough to lower that sweetener asking price SIGNIFICANTLY? 

Now, that absolutely is me pushing the parameters farther than maybe they will go, but then again, maybe not. All I’m trying to do is suggest that there are possibilities that make finding a non-Hardaway solution to this problem possibly attractive.

what really irks me is when people read that stuff and then accuse me of hating or running down the players. My opinion on these players is relative to my opinions on the other players. Therefore, anyone less valuable than Derek Jones, Jr has to be considered as a POTENTIAL solution to this problem, regardless of whether or not they are the PREFERRED solution. 

And to your recent point, we must then consider COST of dumping as an additional piece of data. I’m sorry, I don’t want to give up on Green, but I might prefer to give up on him than to light two more 1st round picks on fire. I would say the exact same thing about Gafford.

Me personally? I would not trade two FRP’s to dump THJ. But that hypothetical is so extreme imo that it’s not even a possibility in my mind.

The problem with using Green or Gafford to clear space is that you have to replace that top 8 player and you still have C. Wood THJ on the team. Is he a cancer? Is the team better with bringing everyone back except Green/Maxi/Gafford and still having THJ on the roster? What will it cost to ultimately move THJ like the team will inevitably do?

[KillerLeft]

Me personally? I would not trade two FRP’s to dump THJ. But that hypothetical is so extreme imo that it’s not even a possibility in my mind.

The problem with using Green or Gafford to clear space is that you have to replace that top 8 player and you still have C. Wood THJ on the team. Is he a cancer? Is the team better with bringing everyone back except Green/Maxi/Gafford and still having THJ on the roster? What will it cost to ultimately move THJ like the team will inevitably do?

You listed it as an option in the post where you posed the question! I think it’s kind of extreme, too, not because I don’t think somebody would ask for it, but because I would never, ever do it. If you would, I respect that. I think it’s nuts, but I at least have a better understanding of where you’re coming from. Not in 1 million, trillion years would I do that. Dude is expiring in a year. Dump Green and let Hardaway ride it out on the bench for a year, worst case scenario. Hell, I might even let Jones walk before I did something like that.

I agree somewhat with the premise of your second paragraph, but again, I think the struggle in moving Hardaway is more about not being able to take any salary back, so I’m fairly confident you could move him to add another rotation player. Now, that player might not be as good as the one you are giving up to retain Jones, but remember, this whole conversation is about finding a way to keep Jones.

Knowing that you would send two first round picks out, as extreme as you might think that is at this time, helps me understand why you reacted to what I wrote earlier the way you did, so thank you. I do not believe the Mavericks agree with you, but we will see. Or, hopefully, we won’t see, because they will find a much easier way to handle all of this than we think.

[Smitty]

You listed it as an option in the post where you posed the question! I think it’s kind of extreme, too, not because I don’t think somebody would ask for it, but because I would never, ever do it. If you would, I respect that. I think it’s nuts, but I at least have a better understanding of where you’re coming from. Not in 1 million, trillion years would I do that. Dude is expiring in a year. Dump Green and let Hardaway ride it out on the bench for a year, worst case scenario. Hell, I might even let Jones walk before I did something like that.

I agree somewhat with the premise of your second paragraph, but again, I think the struggle in moving Hardaway is more about not being able to take any salary back, so I’m fairly confident you could move him to add another rotation player. Now, that player might not be as good as the one you are giving up to retain Jones, but remember, this whole conversation is about finding a way to keep Jones.

Knowing that you would send two first round picks out, as extreme as you might think that is at this time, helps me understand why you reacted to what I wrote earlier the way you did, so thank you. I do not believe the Mavericks agree with you, but we will see. Or, hopefully, we won’t see, because they will find a much easier way to handle all of this than we think.

I absolutely would not. I don’t think there’s any way the Mavs would. That list is a complete list of what the Mavs CAN/WILL pay if it is true that he is moved this summer. Me listing it doesn’t mean it a realistic option, but it has to be listed to be a complete list.

[KillerLeft]

I absolutely would not. I don’t think there’s any way the Mavs would. That list is a complete list of what the Mavs CAN/WILL pay if it is true that he is moved this summer. Me listing it doesn’t mean it a realistic option, but it has to be listed to be a complete list.

Gotcha. That’s on me, I read your previous post too fast, sorry.

Yeah, cool. So we both acknowledge there is a price too high. That’s where I have been coming from this whole time.

[RGP1981]

I would consider trading THJ + a 1st (or even two) for Coby White. Those 1sts will be low 20s with this team.

Just look at the Celtics in this 1st Quarter of the Finals, they have 4 guys who can be initiators of the offense and scorers (5 including Porzingis)... whereas when one of Luka or Kyrie goes to the bench, the next man up is Hardy, a big drop off compared to the Celtics' 4-5 initiators and scorers (all of whom play defense too, and are stronger and faster). So basically, it's Luka AND Kyrie play to superstar level... or bust.

The Mavericks absolutely need another player who can be a high level and dependable scorer and initiator of offense off the bench, so that there is not this much onus on Luka and Kyrie in playoff games. It will also help them rest more during the regular season (which is important because Luka plays a lot of games for his country in the off-season, and Kyrie is older).

G (Scoring): Kyrie, Coby??, Hardy
G (Defensive): DJJ, Green, Exum
F (Scoring): Luka, Nikola Djurisic??, Jalen Bridges??
F (Defensive): PJW, Kleber, O-Max
C: Lively, Gafford, Sims??

[SwisherPrice]

A lot of players will be on the trading block...I hope lots of GMs are already preparing their wishlists and sending them over to Nico!

[surfpuckmd]

It seems like it will be difficult for the Mavericks to free up the cap space to sign DJJ to a market-value deal.  We're all hoping that he will take some discount to stay here. I spend too much time hoping for this outcome.   

I had an idea that I can imagine playing out in everyone's favor.  I'm not suggesting a conspiracy.  I can see this working out though.  

DJJ signs a market value deal with a really bad team with capspace- something like 4-years, $55 million with the Pistons, Hornets or Wizards.

After 3 months, DJJ's new team realizes they are still a bad team and are better off tanking the remainder of the season.  We then trade THJ's expiring deal and couple of 2nd-round picks for DJJ.  

DJJ gets his money.  We get DJJ back in a beautiful reunion.  Mavericks beat the Celtics to become the 2025 NBA Champions.  Storybook ending.

[DanSchwartzgan]

If the Mavs can turn Hardaway into air via the use of only two second round picks, they should jump on that. Problem solved.

I have gotten the sense from several of your recent posts that you aren’t quite sure how far you would be willing to go to retain DJJ. You haven’t quite said it in those terms, so I could be reading you wrong, but I almost feel like you are in the early stages of warning us he won’t be here, kind of like you did with Brunson back in the day. am I off on that?

I don't know that I'm warning of anything.  Clearly there is some price that is just stupid.  It is a waste of time to engage in this discussion if people aren't willing to acknowledge that.  I'm mainly trying to set out truths that I think are self-evident:

1.  Moving THJ cheaply isn't a slam dunk and probably won't be cheap.  We are in a different environment for this kind of move than in years past.  There are limited teams with the ability to take his contract.  There is more competition than usual for that kind of space with some good teams trying to better manage their cap sheets.  And, some of the teams with space or TPE's appear ready to seek upgrades to their own rosters rather than being facilitators for other teams.

2.  It is abnormal for good teams to use assets to stand pat.  We are constantly proposing this type of trade around here where a team gives us something good for our trash and it never happens.  That's because the other team is also trying to improve.  Often, instead of taking our trash, they pair the player we want with something else to create an upgrade.  With the Play-In, almost everyone is trying to compete.  Detroit and San Antonio even appear poised to try to upgrade things.  Who knows what Ainge has up his sleeve.  The more that teams take the mindset of using their cap space to benefit their current ability to compete, the less room there is for all of us trying to grab that space.

3.  I don't think think DJJ is indispensable.  I also don't think he's so good that he can't be improved upon.  I went back and looked at some posts right after we signed him.  Many put him 4th on the PF depth chart (behind rookie Omax).  I knew he could defend wings well.  The question was always his ability to shoot.  Now our group-think has gone 100% in the other direction.  I'd like him back.  I'm willing to pay him the NT MLE and I suspect other teams will be willing to do the same.  What I'm not willing to do is give up too much to do it when Nico has shown an ability to turn assets like THJ's expiring contract and picks into something much more positive.  It is a matter of opportunity cost.  Why would I pay to stand still if I can pay (maybe something similar) to get better.  If we don't win the championship, we are all going to be looking for ways to improve.  The paths are limited and THJ/2025 is one of our best paths.

[KillerLeft]

I don't know that I'm warning of anything.  Clearly there is some price that is just stupid.  It is a waste of time to engage in this discussion if people aren't willing to acknowledge that.  I'm mainly trying to set out truths that I think are self-evident:

1.  Moving THJ cheaply isn't a slam dunk and probably won't be cheap.  We are in a different environment for this kind of move than in years past.  There are limited teams with the ability to take his contract.  There is more competition than usual for that kind of space with some good teams trying to better manage their cap sheets.  And, some of the teams with space or TPE's appear ready to seek upgrades to their own rosters rather than being facilitators for other teams.

2.  It is abnormal for good teams to use assets to stand pat.  We are constantly proposing this type of trade around here where a team gives us something good for our trash and it never happens.  That's because the other team is also trying to improve.  Often, instead of taking our trash, they pair the player we want with something else to create an upgrade.  With the Play-In, almost everyone is trying to compete.  Detroit and San Antonio even appear poised to try to upgrade things.  Who knows what Ainge has up his sleeve.  The more that teams take the mindset of using their cap space to benefit their current ability to compete, the less room there is for all of us trying to grab that space.

3.  I don't think think DJJ is indispensable.  I also don't think he's so good that he can't be improved upon.  I went back and looked at some posts right after we signed him.  Many put him 4th on the PF depth chart (behind rookie Omax).  I knew he could defend wings well.  The question was always his ability to shoot.  Now our group-think has gone 100% in the other direction.  I'd like him back.  I'm willing to pay him the NT MLE and I suspect other teams will be willing to do the same.  What I'm not willing to do is give up too much to do it when Nico has shown an ability to turn assets like THJ's expiring contract and picks into something much more positive.  It is a matter of opportunity cost.  Why would I pay to stand still if I can pay (maybe something similar) to get better.  If we don't win the championship, we are all going to be looking for ways to improve.  The paths are limited and THJ/2025 is one of our best paths.

Yeah, I agree with all of this in principle, and I am certainly one of those who was not a believer in the signing at the beginning of the season. I’ve been following this particular player for a while, and I had no idea he was going to fit here like he has. It took me until like halfway through the Minnesota series before I believed he was going to continue hitting those corner threes, for example.

I think where are you and I might differ, and I think this is reasonable, is on what constitutes standing pat versus getting better versus getting worse. I could be convinced to let Jones go in a certain set of circumstances, but not if his replacement, even temporarily, was Josh Green. I know you feel differently, and that’s fine. But from that perspective, retaining Jones seems easier than improving upon him. Not easy, but easier.

[SleepingHero]

Mihalis Stefanou (@mstef80)
Sasha Vezenkov has informed Sacramento Kings that he doesn’t intend to return for the 2nd year of his contract. For now it’s open whether he will continue his career in NBA or he will decide to return to Europe. @eurohoopsGR @Eurohoopsnet

[SleepingHero]

Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA)
Something to monitor here, as there has been some other reporting that SAC told Vezenkov that he's not really in their plans.

But he can't just choose to leave. He has a guaranteed contract for 2024-25 without an option. SAC would be on the hook for his salary if they waived him, barring something very unlikely where he turned his $6.6M deal into a non-guarantee or a full buyout.

Maybe there's a trade in the works that both sides find agreeable? A little unexpected wrinkle here leading up to FA opening in a few weeks.

[Mavs2021]

Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA)
Something to monitor here, as there has been some other reporting that SAC told Vezenkov that he's not really in their plans.

But he can't just choose to leave. He has a guaranteed contract for 2024-25 without an option. SAC would be on the hook for his salary if they waived him, barring something very unlikely where he turned his $6.6M deal into a non-guarantee or a full buyout.

Maybe there's a trade in the works that both sides find agreeable? A little unexpected wrinkle here leading up to FA opening in a few weeks.

My boy. Come to papi. Seriously though another player with a salary that would work well with a THJ + DJJ re-sign trade (probably three way in this case).

[dirkfansince1998]

Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA)
Something to monitor here, as there has been some other reporting that SAC told Vezenkov that he's not really in their plans.

But he can't just choose to leave. He has a guaranteed contract for 2024-25 without an option. SAC would be on the hook for his salary if they waived him, barring something very unlikely where he turned his $6.6M deal into a non-guarantee or a full buyout.

Maybe there's a trade in the works that both sides find agreeable? A little unexpected wrinkle here leading up to FA opening in a few weeks.

Difficult to find a fit for him in the modern NBA. With his defensive short comings he needs to be featured on offense to be a net positive but NBA teams aren't running their offense through set plays for off ball scorers. Maybe the Warriors or Nuggets.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_...moves-soon



NBA free agency. Teams likely to make the biggest moves.

[SleepingHero]

Difficult to find a fit for him in the modern NBA. With his defensive short comings he needs to be featured on offense to be a net positive but NBA teams aren't running their offense through set plays for off ball scorers. Maybe the Warriors or Nuggets.

He was the MVP of the Euroleague not just a year ago. 6'9 and a lethal 3pt shooter. I think he can fit in a team with a strong creator. Mavs, Pacers, Warriors, Nuggets. I think he'd fit really well on all those teams.


In fact, I haven't run the numbers, but on paper a THJ for Vezenkov swap might be the right deal to improve the team and retain DJJ

He's 6'9 with a shot but can play more of a SG role so he won't take up developmental minutes from OMax. 

Since Monk is most likely leaving, Sacramento is going to need a microwave bench scorer and THJ could be that on paper.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

He was the MVP of the Euroleague not just a year ago. 6'9 and a lethal 3pt shooter. I think he can fit in a team with a strong creator. Mavs, Pacers, Warriors, Nuggets. I think he'd fit really well on all those teams.


In fact, I haven't run the numbers, but on paper a THJ for Vezenkov swap might be the right deal to improve the team and retain DJJ

He's 6'9 with a shot but can play more of a SG role so he won't take up developmental minutes from OMax. 

Since Monk is most likely leaving, Sacramento is going to need a microwave bench scorer and THJ could be that on paper.

I think THJ's value has cratered. His shooting % has gone south. It's why he's out of the rotation in favor of Hardy. It won't be easy finding a team to take him on. I mean anything is possible, we'll have to wait and see.

[dirkfansince1998]

He was the MVP of the Euroleague not just a year ago. 6'9 and a lethal 3pt shooter. I think he can fit in a team with a strong creator. Mavs, Pacers, Warriors, Nuggets. I think he'd fit really well on all those teams.


In fact, I haven't run the numbers, but on paper a THJ for Vezenkov swap might be the right deal to improve the team and retain DJJ

He's 6'9 with a shot but can play more of a SG role so he won't take up developmental minutes from OMax. 

Since Monk is most likely leaving, Sacramento is going to need a microwave bench scorer and THJ could be that on paper.

But he isn't your typical stand in the corner and wait for the ball guy. That's what the Kings did and he wasn't better than the average NBA 3&D guy in that role. If you want to get the best version of Vezenkov on your team you have to use him like Duncan Robinson or Klay Thompson. Off ball screens, split action and some pick and pop.
That's how Vezenkov earned his reputation in europe. As a shooter/cutter that never stops moving. Leading his team in scoring in an off ball role.

Would love to see some of that on the Mavs but I don't see a fit in the current iso heavy/stagnant offense.

[RGP1981]

But he isn't your typical stand in the corner and wait for the ball guy. That's what the Kings did and he wasn't better than the average NBA 3&D guy in that role. If you want to get the best version of Vezenkov on your team you have to use him like Duncan Robinson or Klay Thompson. Off ball screens, split action and some pick and pop.

That's how Vezenkov earned his reputation in europe. As a shooter/cutter that never stops moving. Leading his team in scoring in an off ball role.

Would love to see some of that on the Mavs but I don't see a fit in the current iso heavy/stagnant offense.

It might be a good idea. Vezenkhov could be a good backup for Luka?