Trade & FA 2023-24: Sexton On the Market? | ORL Likes Hartenstein?

[mvossman]

I agree that they should take a hard look at someone like Hartenstein. 

The problem with that, however, and the reason that they didn’t pull the trigger on a big at the deadline (I think), is that in THEIR STYLE, Holmgren just isn’t a 4. I know many casual fans (not you) see a guy like Chet and immediately say “him skinny, him not center, him four” as they drool on their remotes, but a move in that direction would essentially turn them into the Timberwolves, and we just saw how that works. 

Now, part of WHY it hasn’t worked (yet) in Minnesota is that Gobert just doesn’t make an impact on the offensive side, whereas Hartenstein would, but…I honestly felt like Holmgren intimidated the Mavs in the paint on defense MORE than Gobert did in this series. I don’t think rim protection is the Thunder’s problem, like at all. I think they need a BACKUP center OPTION that isn’t Jalen Williams, for sure. I think you could make an argument that HE’s a 4, but even then, he’ll still need some time at center so they can run and play 5-out.

So, to me, it’s a hard target to hit. A guy who can play as a traditional big for extended minutes, but doesn’t expect the starting job to be gifted to him upon arrival. Ironically, I think Gafford might’ve been a better fit for them than the Mavericks. but, most of the names we know aren’t going to want to play third big minutes. After the year he just had, I would put Hartenstein on that list of people I would expect to be less than thrilled to go experiment in OKC.

So your proposing the Mavs send Gafford to OKC for one of their firsts (JK).

[Luka77]

My Mavs offseason
1. 6th man-Simons (White/Sexton), for THJ, Powell, Hardy, '25 first.  I may reconsider this based off of Hardy's readiness and production in the finals.

2. SF/PF-Vanderbilt for Maxi, 2 second round picks.  Mavs get younger and more offensively versatile player if he learns to shoot.

Kyrie/Simons
Luka/Green
DJJ/Omax
PJW/Vanderbilt
Gafford/Lively

That squad has multi year championship window.

[mvossman]

My Mavs offseason
1. 6th man-Simons (White/Sexton), for THJ, Powell, Hardy, '25 first.  I may reconsider this based off of Hardy's readiness and production in the finals.

2. SF/PF-Vanderbilt for Maxi, 2 second round picks.  Mavs get younger and more offensively versatile player if he learns to shoot.

Kyrie/Simons
Luka/Green
DJJ/Omax
PJW/Vanderbilt
Gafford/Lively

That squad has multi year championship window.

That is not going to be enough for Simons and probably not for Sexton either.  I don't know that we want to spend all of our assets and that much cap on a 6th man, and I seriously doubt either of those guys has any interest in being a 6th man.

There is little evidence that Vanderbilt will learn how to shoot.  He does most of his work at the rim.  Not sure he is a good fit offensively on this team.  I also doubt Lakers are interested in pairing oft injured Davis with oft injured Maxi.

My guess is that by next season Lively will be the first name on the center rotation.

[Luka77]

That is not going to be enough for Simons and probably not for Sexton either.  I don't know that we want to spend all of our assets and that much cap on a 6th man, and I seriously doubt either of those guys has any interest in being a 6th man.

There is little evidence that Vanderbilt will learn how to shoot.  He does most of his work at the rim.  Not sure he is a good fit offensively on this team.  I also doubt Lakers are interested in pairing oft injured Davis with oft injured Maxi.

My guess is that by next season Lively will be the first name on the center rotation.

That team would be around for the next 5 years as they are all around Luka's timeline.  I think you spend the assets to get that done.  Moreover, those 3 players may only be a sixth man for the next two season.   After that time maybe a 34 y.o Kyrie will be okay with taking a back seat to become a sixth man.   Regardless, their desired role is something you talk about before the trade.  I'm thinking one of those guys would be willing to sacrifice to win a championship.

Also at what age did Dorian learn to shoot?  There was little evidence of him learning at 24 yo either.  I think it would worth taking a chance bc the Mavs would have four 6'6 to 6'8 defenders to throw at people like SGA, Ant, Tatum, Brown, ect. 

Maxi, who has two years less on contract, would be the salary to take on Vando.  The real assets would be the two seconds.  If LAL does truly want to get off Vando, I don't know if they could get better for a player I'm not sure is healthy himself.

[BigDirk41]

That team would be around for the next 5 years as they are all around Luka's timeline.  I think you spend the assets to get that done.  Moreover, those 3 players may only be a sixth man for the next two season.   After that time maybe a 34 y.o Kyrie will be okay with taking a back seat to become a sixth man.   Regardless, their desired role is something you talk about before the trade.  I'm thinking one of those guys would be willing to sacrifice to win a championship.

Also at what age did Dorian learn to shoot?  There was little evidence of him learning at 24 yo either.  I think it would worth taking a chance at bc the Mavs would have four 6'6 to 6'8 defenders to throw at people like SGA, Ant, Tatum, Brown, ect. 

Maxi, who has two years less on contract, would be the salary to take on Vando.  The real assets would be the two seconds.  If LAL does truly want to get off Vando, I don't know if they could get better for a player I'm not sure is healthy himself.

34 year old Kyrie will never be a 6th man. Come on man. That's ridiculous. With the way pros take care of their bodies now, he'll still be great when he's 34 as long as he's healthy.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

Did you know Hartenstein is black? Not kidding. As in the lightest skinned brother EVER!!!

Saw him discussing it on a podcast with Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart, and their reactions on the day they each found out. They suddenly started slapping hands with him differently.

[mvossman]

That team would be around for the next 5 years as they are all around Luka's timeline.  I think you spend the assets to get that done.  Moreover, those 3 players may only be a sixth man for the next two season.   After that time maybe a 34 y.o Kyrie will be okay with taking a back seat to become a sixth man.   Regardless, their desired role is something you talk about before the trade.  I'm thinking one of those guys would be willing to sacrifice to win a championship.

Also at what age did Dorian learn to shoot?  There was little evidence of him learning at 24 yo either.  I think it would worth taking a chance at bc the Mavs would have four 6'6 to 6'8 defenders to throw at people like SGA, Ant, Tatum, Brown, ect. 

Maxi, who has two years less on contract, would be the salary to take on Vando.  The real assets would be the two seconds.  If LAL does truly want to get off Vando, I don't know if they could get better for a player I'm not sure is healthy himself.

I don't think its common for a young really good offensive player to be interested in moving into a situation where he will be third fiddle and coming off the bench and might be able to crack the starting lineup after two years.  Some vets who have been around the block might think like that, but very few of the young guys do.  Those players need to look at their long term value too.  I'm sure they saw how Brunson value exploded once he got out from under Luka shadow.  I think you are asking/assuming a lot for them to be ok to come here and play from the bench.

Dorian is a single example of a player greatly improving their three point shooting.  How many have tried and failed.  I don't think the odds are in Vanderbilts favor.  They are different type players anyways.  A big part of Dorian's offensive game was the 3 (he just wasn't very good at it).  He took 5 threes per 36 right out of the gate.  In 6 seasons Vanderbilt hasn't taken much more than one 3 per 36.

I think we need to be real careful with assuming/expecting players to improve in areas just because we have seen it happen before.  Dorian improving is three is not likely to mean Vanderbilt will, just like PJ playing much better defense here is not likely to turn Simons into a decent defender.

[Luka77]

I don't think its common for a young really good offensive player to be interested in moving into a situation where he will be third fiddle and coming off the bench and might be able to crack the starting lineup after two years.  Some vets who have been around the block might think like that, but very few of the young guys do.  Those players need to look at their long term value too.  I'm sure they saw how Brunson value exploded once he got out from under Luka shadow.  I think you are asking/assuming a lot for them to be ok to come here and play from the bench.

Dorian is a single example of a player greatly improving their three point shooting.  How many have tried and failed.  I don't think the odds are in Vanderbilts favor.  They are different type players anyways.  A big part of Dorian's offensive game was the 3 (he just wasn't very good at it).  He took 5 threes per 36 right out of the gate.  In 6 seasons Vanderbilt hasn't taken much more than one 3 per 36.

I think we need to be real careful with assuming/expecting players to improve in areas just because we have seen it happen before.  Dorian improving is three is not likely to mean Vanderbilt will, just like PJ playing much better defense here is not likely to turn Simons into a decent defender.

It may not be common but that doesn't mean it can't happen.  Most young guys don't want to come off the bench because it will affect their salary or they lose minutes.  In Simons case he already has his contract and he would not get less minutes.  And like I said Simon shares the same agent as Luka so I am sure he would know at all times his value to the Mavs

Moreover, our very own Jason Terry was a starter in Atlanta and Dallas and then came off the bench to win an NBA championship.  Manu Ginobili (a hall of famer)came off the bench to win a championship. There have been many people through out history that were successful players as starters that then came off the bench to win championship.  Only players with big ego's (Carmelo, Iverson) recently have resisted or been angry when asked to take a bench role.  

Moreover DFS wasn't shooting 5 threes out the gate, he wasn't even shooting 5 shoots total.  It wasn't until DFS was 27y.o that he was shooting 5 threes a game.   Moreover the three wasn't a big part of DFS game coming the league (at 23 y.o) it was by design that they forced him into shooting more threes.  

Also, DFS isn't the only player that increased his three point shooting as they got older.  Maxi was shooting .311 from 3 at 26 y.o taking less than 2 a game.  Only when he was 27 y.o did he start making them at league average of .35 at three a game.

[Luka77]

I just saw that you were using per 36 stats still doesn't change my post much

[mvossman]

It may not be common but that doesn't mean it can't happen.  Most young guys don't want to come off the bench because it will affect their salary or they lose minutes.  In Simons case he already has his contract and he would not get less minutes.  And like I said Simon shares the same agent as Luka so I am sure he would know at all times his value to the Mavs

Moreover, our very own Jason Terry was a starter in Atlanta and Dallas and then came off the bench to win an NBA championship.  Manu Ginobili (a hall of famer)came off the bench to win a championship. There have been many people through out history that were successful players as starters that then came off the bench to win championship.  Only players with big ego's (Carmelo, Iverson) recently have resisted or been angry when asked to take a bench role.  

Moreover DFS wasn't shooting 5 threes out the gate, he wasn't even shooting 5 shoots total.  It wasn't until DFS was 27y.o that he was shooting 5 threes a game.   Moreover the three wasn't a big part of DFS game coming the league (at 23 y.o) it was by design that they forced him into shooting more threes.  

Also, DFS isn't the only player that increased his three point shooting as they got older.  Maxi was shooting .311 from 3 at 26 y.o taking less than 2 a game.  Only when he was 27 y.o did he start making them at league average of .35 at three a game.

Terry was in his 30s when he started coming off the bench, which is about when guys start thinking about doing that, not at 24.

You are going to find multiple examples of guys who increased their 3 point shooting significantly.  You will a lot more examples of guys who didn't.  The first list gets smaller when you talk about guys that never shoot more than one three per 36, and my guess is its even smaller when that guy has never shot better than 70% FTs.

Another point to bring up is that your trade for Simons (which probably needs more assets going out) makes it very unlikely we will be able to retain DJJ.

[Branduil]

I don't think the Mavs need any urgency to add new pieces this offseason. The main task is going to be to move off THJ's salary so they can keep DJJ.

As disappointing as Exum has been in the playoffs, Hardy has really shown something. I'd like to see him have the opportunity to take the 6th man role off the bench next season. Similarly, PJ and Gafford will have a full offseason to integrate into the offense.

And I think we still can't fully appreciate the potential for Lively. Even if his defense can't improve much from its already very high level, there's a lot he can improve on in offense. Not just free throws, but if he can start shooting threes, it will unlock a new level for the offense. It would be the 5-out AND lob threat we always hoped for with KP, but never really delivered.

[Dundalis]

My Mavs offseason
1. 6th man-Simons (White/Sexton), for THJ, Powell, Hardy, '25 first.  I may reconsider this based off of Hardy's readiness and production in the finals.

2. SF/PF-Vanderbilt for Maxi, 2 second round picks.  Mavs get younger and more offensively versatile player if he learns to shoot.

Kyrie/Simons
Luka/Green
DJJ/Omax
PJW/Vanderbilt
Gafford/Lively

That squad has multi year championship window.

I hate the almost complete lack of shooting outside your primary initiators/scorers. I get that it's working to an extent right now because of the insane gravity of Luka and Kyrie giving guys absolute wide open looks, but long term it's simply not ideal to have your primary initiators surrounded predominantly by guys who cannot even shoot league avg from 3.

We need another actual 3 and D guy (who actually does both the 3 and the D) as our next primary target IMO, ideally someone good enough to relegate PJ or DJJ to the bench to increase our depth if at all possible. Some of these other young teams in the west that already have insane talent and depth and also have tradeable assets coming out the wazoo scare me a bit moving forward. Having a player like Luka can elevate guys in ways 99% of other teams can't, but I'd rather look to resolve that issue sooner than later. We have a chance in the Finals because we have Luka, but looking at how much better Boston's role players are than ours is kind of eye opening. I could see some of these other teams in the west developing similar insane depth of talent quite soon.

[BigDirk41]

I see zero reason for DJJ or PJ to be moved to the bench next year. Both have been great this season and in the playoffs. Both players have shot higher 3 point percentages in the playoffs than in the regular season. Both players increased their ppg in the playoffs also. That's exactly what you want from your role players is to elevate their games when it matters the most. Hardy and Maxi have also raised their 3 point %. The only need for this team is the right type of role players to add to the team or possibly a 6th man if we don't think Hardy is ready for that role. I personally think Hardy is ready for that role. It's more about retaining all our top talent and improving if there is a chance.

[mvossman]

I don't think the Mavs need any urgency to add new pieces this offseason. The main task is going to be to move off THJ's salary so they can keep DJJ.

As disappointing as Exum has been in the playoffs, Hardy has really shown something. I'd like to see him have the opportunity to take the 6th man role off the bench next season. Similarly, PJ and Gafford will have a full offseason to integrate into the offense.

And I think we still can't fully appreciate the potential for Lively. Even if his defense can't improve much from its already very high level, there's a lot he can improve on in offense. Not just free throws, but if he can start shooting threes, it will unlock a new level for the offense. It would be the 5-out AND lob threat we always hoped for with KP, but never really delivered

I’m not ready to give up on Exum yet either. He did some really good things for us during the regular season. Brunson struggled his first playoffs as well, and I’m not sure there isn’t still an injury issue. Would like to see what both Hardy and Exum can do next season

[Dundalis]

I see zero reason for DJJ or PJ to be moved to the bench next year. Both have been great this season and in the playoffs. Both players have shot higher 3 point percentages in the playoffs than in the regular season. Both players increased their ppg in the playoffs also. That's exactly what you want from your role players is to elevate their games when it matters the most. Hardy and Maxi  have also raised their 3 point %. The only need for this team is the right type of role players to add to the team or possibly a 6th man if we don't think Hardy is ready for that role. I personally think Hardy is ready for that role. It's more about retaining all our top talent and improving if there is a chance.

You move DJJ or PJ to the bench because you have acquired superior talent. You don't move them for the sake of moving them. The Mavs looking to just stay pat is simply not understanding the way the league will move on without you, no matter what you've previously accomplished. Plenty of great teams have stood pat after success only to be left behind. I don't care that DJJ and PJ have elevated their games in the playoffs, because Luka literally elevates almost everyone in the playoffs, because his gravity increases in the playoffs as defenses key in on him more than in the regular season, leaving even more open space for these roles players than they are used to having. My thoughts go to what if Luka actually had good shooters around him during these periods, how good the offense would be. A Herb Jones type would prob be shooting 50% from 3 in these playoffs next to Luka and Kyrie because he'd be so consistently wide open. I recognize that as much as some of these role players deserve credit, a lot of what they are doing is purely due to Luka and Kyrie. They are team elevators of the highest order. Luka has the best team around him he's ever had, but IMO that's a very low bar when you look at what Tatum or Jokic or Giannis have had. Now finding the right players might be difficult, and high level 3 and D's aren't easy to get, but we should very much be on the lookout for any opportunity IMO. And to be clear I'm not saying this because I think PJ or DJJ aren't good. But I'm looking to have this team keep up with or keep ahead of a bunch of teams that are likely gonna be much better moving forward.

[SleepingHero]

Not sure. If they want to keep their core together they have to think about the extensions of their rookie contracts. A big 1-2 year deal wouldn't hurt but any additional year would really hurt their chances to resign their own guys.

But OKC needs big contracts for potential trades. As long as they want to keep their core of SGA/Chet/JDub/Dort that is. 

They have enough picks they can attach that even for a borderline ridiculous overpay for a guy, that contract is still moveable.

[SleepingHero]

So, to me, it’s a hard target to hit. A guy who can play as a traditional big for extended minutes, but doesn’t expect the starting job to be gifted to him upon arrival. Ironically, I think Gafford might’ve been a better fit for them than the Mavericks. but, most of the names we know aren’t going to want to play third big minutes. After the year he just had, I would put Hartenstein on that list of people I would expect to be less than thrilled to go experiment in OKC.

Love love your breakdown. Agree with much of it. 

But that supposed target you're suggesting, a traditional big that is good enough for extended minutes, but doesn't expect a starting job, is there even a guy in the league right now that fits that? Nurkic, Valanciunas, maybe a return of Steven Adams? 

SGA/J-Dub/Dort/----/Chet is their lineup currently. I assume they are moving Giddey. To me they need a backup 5 and a starting 4 that is not only mobile, but has size and can hit 3s. I think basically everyone is looking for that. Maybe OKC throws a boatload of picks to HOU for Adams+Jabari Smith Jr....

[SleepingHero]

Evan Sidery (@esidery)
The Bulls’ asking price for Zach LaVine has dropped significantly, per @KCJHoop (https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/nba/chi...ts/565962/).

Both sides have increased desires on making a trade happen this offseason.

With LaVine’s market barely materializing, it appears Chicago might be willing to simply perform a salary dump deal.

[SleepingHero]

Evan Sidery (@esidery)
The Kings intend to shop the No. 13 overall pick along with future draft capital to aggressively hunt a win-now piece.

Harrison Barnes and Kevin Huerter are two players who will likely be dangled in trade talks over the next month.

Sacramento wants to seriously compete within the midst of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis’ prime years.

[omahen]

I’m not ready to give up on Exum yet either. He did some really good things for us during the regular season. Brunson struggled his first playoffs as well, and I’m not sure there isn’t still an injury issue. Would like to see what both Hardy and Exum can do next season

I hope Exum can recover, but I would not bet next season on him. He came back from injury on February 28th...

I think first priority is to resign DJJ, than build from there, depending how much will it take to resign him and what assets and salary will be left.