Trade & FA 2023-24: PHX Wants Lebron+Bronny| Hawks to Shop Hunter

[omahen]

I have long been a proponent of targeting Siakim. I've been talking about that for YEARS, actually. Now, something about the fit with Lively (and Kyrie) doesn't quite work for me. I probably still do a deal (if I'm confident he'll re-sign), and I know this will illicit eye rolls, but...we really, really should be talking about the fit. It's not ideal at this time.

He's not much of a catch and shoot guy, Siakim. I stand by what I said a few weeks back: In a post-Lively world, wherein he's a screener on MOST plays and the generation of driving lanes for BOTH Luka and Kyrie (and now Exum, even) is everything to the team, shooting/spacing is the #1 box you have to check with the 5th guy. Maybe Siakim gets that, is happy with an off-ball role and even improves at shooting off the catch in this system. I can't deny that's a possibility, and he certainly fits in from a defense/rebounding/running the floor perspective.

But...I see some Porzingis fit potential here. I really do. I know it won't be popular, but I'm just saying. Talent-wise, we've at least ventured into a situation where using '27 makes a little sense, and I'd have no objection to sending any of the players mentioned to Toronto (except O-Max, who in one year might be all the parts of Siakim we want and none of the parts we don't). My concerns are all about fit, and I could be talked into it for sure.

I share your concern about Siakam wanting to be more than third banana. But, he will be third banana in Philly too. So perhaps, he would be willing to accept that role to be in a competitive environment. 

As for offense, I am not so concerned. I recognize he is not a good shooter. But, Mavs offense with DJJ next to Luka, Kyrie, Exum and Lively is still great. As good as DJJ is, I think Siakam has way more in his bag offensively to work on. Especially, if we can survive playing him as a small ball centre in playoffs or next to a guy like Maxi (that pairing might be perfect, if Maxi can return to court at any point and play reasonably well).

[KillerLeft]

As for offense, I am not so concerned. I recognize he is not a good shooter. But, Mavs offense with DJJ next to Luka, Kyrie, Exum and Lively is still great. 

This is because DJJ has been draining catch-and-shoot 3's at a rate even the most optimistic among us couldn't have expected. I mean, we're 30 games in and he has already made more of them than any other year of his career.

The question then becomes: how much of that is the Luka/Kyrie/Dallas system effect, which can be reasonably expected to transfer at least a little bit to anyone, including Siakim, and how much of it is just DJJ's long years of being told he'd have to become a shooter to carve out a sizable role and practicing paying off? Heck, is it even just a hot streak, and are there 30 straight misses coming in January? Because THAT would make the offense not look very good, as I'm sure you know. 

To your other point...it's a good one. I mean, for me to be excited, I'd have to know that the plan was NOT to give Siakim the ball at the elbow and let him iso, at least while Luka/Kyrie/Lively are on the floor (might be good with Kleber, actually) and I'd have to know he's ok with that. To your point, that same adjustment on his part probably needs to get made in Philly, too. Maybe he'll get it. Porzingis never did, but maybe I need to let go of the PTSD from that era.

---

Someday, Lively is going to become proficient at that corner 3, and then the Mavs will be able to play a variety of ways WITH THE SAME PERSONNEL, which is the whole thing in the NBA. At that point, this team is really going to have something.

[omahen]

This is because DJJ has been draining catch-and-shoot 3's at a rate even the most optimistic among us couldn't have expected. I mean, we're 30 games in and he has already made more of them than any other year of his career.

The question then becomes: how much of that is the Luka/Kyrie/Dallas system effect, which can be reasonably expected to transfer at least a little bit to anyone, including Siakim, and how much of it is just DJJ's long years of being told he'd have to become a shooter to carve out a sizable role and practicing paying off? Heck, is it even just a hot streak, and are there 30 straight misses coming in January? Because THAT would make the offense not look very good, as I'm sure you know. 

To your other point...it's a good one. I mean, for me to be excited, I'd have to know that the plan was NOT to give Siakim the ball at the elbow and let him iso, at least while Luka/Kyrie/Lively are on the floor (might be good with Kleber, actually) and I'd have to know he's ok with that. To your point, that same adjustment on his part probably needs to get made in Philly, too. Maybe he'll get it. Porzingis never did, but maybe I need to let go of the PTSD from that era.

---

Someday, Lively is going to become proficient at that corner 3, and then the Mavs will be able to play a variety of ways WITH THE SAME PERSONNEL, which is the whole thing in the NBA. At that point, this team is really going to have something.

DJJ really surprised me how willing he is shooting threes. He is at over 4 attempts per game. His percentage went down after a hot start and is now closer to his best years - not great 34 % (which is still his career best). 

Siakam is also shooting approximately 4 threes per game. His shooting this season has been awful at 26 %, but he is a career 32 % shooter. So there is hope, he can be similarly decent as DJJ from three, while having many other things in the bag. And above everything, he is much bigger and thus far better fit at PF against big teams, which there are plenty of. I can't imagine Mavs playing DJJ at PF against teams like Denver or Minny. Both LA teams also probably not.

[KillerLeft]

Siakam is also shooting approximately 4 threes per game. His shooting this season has been awful at 26 %, but he is a career 32 % shooter. So there is hope, he can be similarly decent as DJJ from three, while having many other things in the bag. And above everything, he is much bigger and thus far better fit at PF against big teams, which there are plenty of. I can't imagine Mavs playing DJJ at PF against teams like Denver or Minny. Both LA teams also probably not.

To your point, I'm going to assume that Siakim's 4 attempts per game are a little tougher shots than DJJ's 4 attempts, too. So, your point is made. 

IDK, I'm just a worrier, I guess. It seems like every move they make these days is a move towards worse spacing. I know there are other considerations, but I hope they're at least acknowledging the tradeoff when they consider this stuff (which we don't even know they're doing, come to think of it).

[Winter]

DJJ really surprised me how willing he is shooting threes. He is at over 4 attempts per game. His percentage went down after a hot start and is now closer to his best years - not great 34 % (which is still his career best). 

Siakam is also shooting approximately 4 threes per game. His shooting this season has been awful at 26 %, but he is a career 32 % shooter. So there is hope, he can be similarly decent as DJJ from three, while having many other things in the bag. And above everything, he is much bigger and thus far better fit at PF against big teams, which there are plenty of. I can't imagine Mavs playing DJJ at PF against teams like Denver or Minny. Both LA teams also probably not.

Pascal averages over 6 rebounds a game - twice as many as DJj. Let that sink in. That's about the same as our two backup centers combined. That's nearly Dereck Lively territory by itself. The last three years, he's averaged 8.5, 7.8. and 6.6 rebounds a game.

That changes things. It may even change who you truly need as a backup center if his stats are suddenly in the team math.

[omahen]

Another thing to consider. Luka has been an absolute offensive monster this season. Better than ever before. If teams don't double him, it is basically an efficient 40 point or more game on most of the nights. If they double him, Mavs are playing 4 vs 3 and players that can do more than just catch and shoot (Exum especially, DJJ to an extent) are thriving in this. When doubling Luka, they need to double him mostly above the three point line, because he has become such a good shooter both from three as well as from mid range. You can't just guard him one on one on the perimeter and pack the paint. The double needs to go higher, which is giving huge space for everyone else. That is why catch and shoot has become imho less important than in the past. Making a quick read with a pass or attacking a close-out has become imho more important.

[omahen]

TDL shopping list (opinion). Mavs listed as candidates for DFS, Caruso or Stewart (personally not really impressed with the list). The only Mavs player appearing on other wish lists is Green for Utah. Perhaps I could see it more as a possible three way deal, with Utah providing expiring contract like Olynik and some assets to go to the third team.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1010...de-targets

GSW will be interesting to watch going forward. I think they have to make Curry good in his last years and try to do everything to contend, but the result so far has been bad. Thompson looks cooked and anything above MLE would likely be a mistake going forward. Green has his own well known issues. Wiggins has been a shadow of himself. Still, they are not badly positioned for a big trade, especially if they are willing to move Klay expiring deal. Klay expiring, Kuminga and their picks could be very interesting for a team like Toronto (Siakam, Boucher) or a team like Portland (Grant, Brogdon). I think they will be very aggresive at TDL.

[Chicagojk]

TDL shopping list (opinion). Mavs listed as candidates for DFS, Caruso or Stewart (personally not really impressed with the list). The only Mavs player appearing on other wish lists is Green for Utah. Perhaps I could see it more as a possible three way deal, with Utah providing expiring contract like Olynik and some assets to go to the third team.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1010...de-targets

GSW will be interesting to watch going forward. I think they have to make Curry good in his last years and try to do everything to contend, but the result so far has been bad. Thompson looks cooked and anything above MLE would likely be a mistake going forward. Green has his own well known issues. Wiggins has been a shadow of himself. Still, they are not badly positioned for a big trade, especially if they are willing to move Klay expiring deal. Klay expiring, Kuminga and their picks could be very interesting for a team like Toronto (Siakam, Boucher) or a team like Portland (Grant, Brogdon). I think they will be very aggresive at TDL.

Yes, I expect both GS and Lakers are going to be aggressive.  Be ready for see them pop up in every talked about trade.   

I liked the young GS players.   I have read that it is unlikely they move Thompson.   I would assume any move is going to need curry's sign off.   They are sort of stuck gambling on Kuminga's upside vs the return he could bring.  I am sure they wished he was a little further along, but he is still young enough that a team may be very intrigued with him.   He is probably the most likely to be moved.   It is a gamble though.  I could see him being very close to being a breakout, but then again maybe this is what he is.  Difficult to see him reaching his full potential playing with Draymond though.   Paul is the other one.   I am sure they would move Wiggins, but I doubt he brings anything of value.   I agree with you about Siakam trade.  I will need to think more if that is a big enough move to get them back to a top 4 talent team in the West.

[Jason Terry]

I have long been a proponent of targeting Siakim. I've been talking about that for YEARS, actually. Now, something about the fit with Lively (and Kyrie) doesn't quite work for me. I probably still do a deal (if I'm confident he'll re-sign), and I know this will illicit eye rolls, but...we really, really should be talking about the fit. It's not ideal at this time.

He's not much of a catch and shoot guy, Siakim. I stand by what I said a few weeks back: In a post-Lively world, wherein he's a screener on MOST plays and the generation of driving lanes for BOTH Luka and Kyrie (and now Exum, even) is everything to the team, shooting/spacing is the #1 box you have to check with the 5th guy. Maybe Siakim gets that, is happy with an off-ball role and even improves at shooting off the catch in this system. I can't deny that's a possibility, and he certainly fits in from a defense/rebounding/running the floor perspective.

But...I see some Porzingis fit potential here. I really do. I know it won't be popular, but I'm just saying. Talent-wise, we've at least ventured into a situation where using '27 makes a little sense, and I'd have no objection to sending any of the players mentioned to Toronto (except O-Max, who in one year might be all the parts of Siakim we want and none of the parts we don't). My concerns are all about fit, and I could be talked into it for sure.

I think there’s ways to avoid this situation with creativity. When everyone is healthy and on the court together i could see Siakam taking on more of the Kyrie drive to the basket role. Make something happen one on one. Kyrie is capable of being a volume catch and shoot player if there’s stretches where it makes sense to do that. It probably would save his legs some and allow for better health throughout the season

[mvossman]

Pascal averages over 6 rebounds a game - twice as many as DJj. Let that sink in. That's about the same as our two backup centers combined. That's nearly Dereck Lively territory by itself. The last three years, he's averaged 8.5, 7.8. and 6.6 rebounds a game.

That changes things. It may even change who you truly need as a backup center if his stats are suddenly in the team math.

Siakam is a better rebounder than our undersized power forwards, but looking at rebounds per game is going to skew the results.  At a per 36 rate, he gets less than our centers (including Powell).  He is roughly at Maxi level.

[Winter]

Siakam is a better rebounder than our undersized power forwards, but looking at rebounds per game is going to skew the results.  At a per 36 rate, he gets less than our centers (including Powell).  He is roughly at Maxi level.

I'm not exactly sure why it would "skew" anything. You can't play Powell or Holmes 36 minutes if everyone is healthy. Kleber doesn't play that many minutes even when he does play. 

Pascal gets more rebounds than any other single individual outside of Doncic and Lively, so the starting 5 will clearly be a better rebounding team. And I would argue that we still need a backup center.

[mvossman]

I have long been a proponent of targeting Siakim. I've been talking about that for YEARS, actually. Now, something about the fit with Lively (and Kyrie) doesn't quite work for me. I probably still do a deal (if I'm confident he'll re-sign), and I know this will illicit eye rolls, but...we really, really should be talking about the fit. It's not ideal at this time.

He's not much of a catch and shoot guy, Siakim. I stand by what I said a few weeks back: In a post-Lively world, wherein he's a screener on MOST plays and the generation of driving lanes for BOTH Luka and Kyrie (and now Exum, even) is everything to the team, shooting/spacing is the #1 box you have to check with the 5th guy. Maybe Siakim gets that, is happy with an off-ball role and even improves at shooting off the catch in this system. I can't deny that's a possibility, and he certainly fits in from a defense/rebounding/running the floor perspective.

But...I see some Porzingis fit potential here. I really do. I know it won't be popular, but I'm just saying. Talent-wise, we've at least ventured into a situation where using '27 makes a little sense, and I'd have no objection to sending any of the players mentioned to Toronto (except O-Max, who in one year might be all the parts of Siakim we want and none of the parts we don't). My concerns are all about fit, and I could be talked into it for sure.

I'm actually going to double down on this a little bit.  I think Siakam is a downgrade defensively from DJJ.  If our starting lineup already has Luka, Kyrie and Exum, do we really need a huge offensive upgrade?  I kind of want to see a bigger sample of this new starting lineup when everyone is healthy.  Right now our 10th most used 4 man lineup is Lively/Luka/DJJ/Exum. That group has a net rating of +40 (129 and 89).  Its even better in the very limited minutes you add Kyrie to that group.  How good is that lineup?  Is DJJ and Exum going to be this good all year?

Honestly the best argument for Siakam might be the positive impact he has on the second unit.  But it seems to me that is an issue that could be addressed with a younger player that costs less assets and cap.

[mvossman]

I'm not exactly sure why it would "skew" anything. You can't play Powell or Holmes 36 minutes if everyone is healthy. Kleber doesn't play that many minutes even when he does play. 

Pascal gets more rebounds than any other single individual outside of Doncic and Lively, so the starting 5 will clearly be a better rebounding team. And I would argue that we still need a backup center.

Comparing rebounds per game for players that play different minutes per game is apples to oranges.  All your really saying is Siakam plays a lot more minutes than those players.  

We have been filling most of the center minutes with Lively/Powell/Holmes, all of which rebound more per minute than Siakam.  Replacing any of them with Siakam would likely reduce total rebounds.

The guys to compare him to are Williams, DJJ and maybe Maxi.  He is a big upgrade over Williams and a smaller one over DJJ.  He would take minutes from Williams and push DJJ down the lineup so he would definitely improve overall rebounding, but playing him at center is not going to be a rebounding upgrade.

[Winter]

You're not losing DJJ. You're adding his stats to the rotation players. And I would argue that DJJ would still be playing with either Doncic or Kyrie as the lead guard.

Plus Pascal averages 3 assists per game. DJJ averages 1. So you're averaging more ball movement, more assists per game, more points per game, and more rebounds per game. Plus you're helping the rotation's defense by playing DJJ there. And I'm not at all sure we automatically say DJJ is a better defensive player (although I think it might be true on the margin). You also have a young, veteran player in his prime who has seen a championship.

[Knutsen]

I'm actually going to double down on this a little bit.  I think Siakam is a downgrade defensively from DJJ.  If our starting lineup already has Luka, Kyrie and Exum, do we really need a huge offensive upgrade?  I kind of want to see a bigger sample of this new starting lineup when everyone is healthy.  Right now our 10th most used 4 man lineup is Lively/Luka/DJJ/Exum. That group has a net rating of +40 (129 and 89).  Its even better in the very limited minutes you add Kyrie to that group.  How good is that lineup?  Is DJJ and Exum going to be this good all year?

Honestly the best argument for Siakam might be the positive impact he has on the second unit.  But it seems to me that is an issue that could be addressed with a younger player that costs less assets and cap.

Lots of great posts about Siakam, thanks for sharing your thoughts, guys! 

When I think of Siakam I mostly focus on playoff matchups. The teams we’d probably have a hard time beating are the much bigger and physical ones like the Nuggets and Timbervolves.

So will we have a much better chance in a playoff series because Towns or Gobert won‘t be able to defend Siakam and because he keeps Gordon off Luka?

[omahen]

I'm actually going to double down on this a little bit.  I think Siakam is a downgrade defensively from DJJ.  

He might be a downgrade in certain match-ups, but he is certainly an upgrade in others. As said before, I can't see Mavs being successful starting DJJ at PF against the likes of Denver, Minny or both LA teams.

[SleepingHero]

Jake Weinbach (@JWeinbachNBA)
The Mavericks should be considered a “dark horse” candidate to land Pascal Siakam.

Dallas’ trade package would presumably consist of Tim Hardaway Jr., Richaun Holmes, Josh Green, and a future first-round pick.

Toronto has held previous interest in 23-year-old wing Josh Green.

Noah Weber (@noahweber00)
The Dallas Mavericks are “likely going to pursue” Toronto Raptors forward Pascal Siakam, per @michaelgrange.

Siakam is someone who Dallas called about this summer.

[DanSchwartzgan]

It’s a similar situation to Kyrie. If we know we can re-sign him then perhaps we can pay rental prices for a long term investment. Siakam(29) and Kyrie(31) would be on a similar timeline. This iteration of the Luka Era mavs would run it’s course and then we build another team after Luka’s extension kicks in 

There’s Siakam ties to Texas. Siakam and Omax have the same agent. Omax was born in Canada (same as Barrett) and his folks are former Canadian basketball players. Omax could be the best asset on the table for Toronto, so they could have motivation. Omax alone is a strong offer after Toronto did us the favor of waiting too long to trade their guys

The cost for a comprable player like Jerami Grant seems like it would be higher. This doesn’t feel desperate or rushed. Feels more opportunistic if the price is low enough.

Lot’s of great posts today on this topic, but several things here I wanted to comment on.  

Opportunistic is a good word, but opportunity might be better.  There are other names in the poll that make sense and maybe some that make more sense.  But, Siakam appears to be available now.  No guarantee any of those others will become available.  When this level player becomes available, you have to put your hat in the ring.

I think you are dead on about OMax being the young player they’d covet.  All of the other rumors have a young PF type going to Toronto…Keegan Murray, Johnson, Jarace Walker.  That is Toronto’s position of need alongside Poeltl, Barnes and the NY guys.  I had noticed the agent angle and think if the agent had input that he’d want OMax moved as Siakam would block his path here.  The trick is figuring out what offer is better than other teams can make without being disastrous if Siakam were to walk in free agency.  

If I were Toronto, I’d ask for GWill instead of Holmes.  I’d want THJ so I could move Trent for some value before he becomes a FA.  GWill/THJ seems closer to what we gave up for Kyrie (DFS/Dinwiddie) than Holmes/THJ.  OMax instead of the 2029 that Brooklyn got?  Is that enough or do we need to put a 2027 swap in there.  If you go back to the draft (before OMax became our lovable pet project), Siakam would cost Bertans, Bullock, THJ, two swaps and dropping back from 10th to 12th if that were the deal.

Dallas would have Lively, Siakam, Luka, Exum and Kyrie backed by Maxi/DJJ/Green all of whom are multi-position players.  I like the point someone made that Siakam might make Maxi really useful if/when he returns.  I think you can go to war with that.  I’d like it better if GWill was still here instead of Holmes, but feel like that would require 2027 be unprotected.

[SleepingHero]

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1741867322233794906

Brad Townsend (@townbrad)
Inquiring mind wonders why Mavs advisor Dennis Lindsey was taking in Jazz-Heat a couple of nights ago. Yes, he’s a former Jazz executive and maybe still lives here, but scouting seems below his pay grade.






Now who is on the Jazz and/or Miami the Mavs could be interested in...?

[omahen]

Lot’s of great posts today on this topic, but several things here I wanted to comment on.  

Opportunistic is a good word, but opportunity might be better.  There are other names in the poll that make sense and maybe some that make more sense.  But, Siakam appears to be available now.  No guarantee any of those others will become available.  When this level player becomes available, you have to put your hat in the ring.

I think you are dead on about OMax being the young player they’d covet.  All of the other rumors have a young PF type going to Toronto…Keegan Murray, Johnson, Jarace Walker.  That is Toronto’s position of need alongside Poeltl, Barnes and the NY guys.  I had noticed the agent angle and think if the agent had input that he’d want OMax moved as Siakam would block his path here.  The trick is figuring out what offer is better than other teams can make without being disastrous if Siakam were to walk in free agency.  

If I were Toronto, I’d ask for GWill instead of Holmes.  I’d want THJ so I could move Trent for some value before he becomes a FA.  GWill/THJ seems closer to what we gave up for Kyrie (DFS/Dinwiddie) than Holmes/THJ.  OMax instead of the 2029 that Brooklyn got?  Is that enough or do we need to put a 2027 swap in there.  If you go back to the draft (before OMax became our lovable pet project), Siakam would cost Bertans, Bullock, THJ, two swaps and dropping back from 10th to 12th if that were the deal.

Dallas would have Lively, Siakam, Luka, Exum and Kyrie backed by Maxi/DJJ/Green all of whom are multi-position players.  I like the point someone made that Siakam might make Maxi really useful if/when he returns.  I think you can go to war with that.  I’d like it better if GWill was still here instead of Holmes, but feel like that would require 2027 be unprotected.

I agree with everything. I would just much rather pay the unprotected FRP and keep Williams. Mavs will still need him. I don't think Toronto necessarily needs a starting PF. I think they just want good young players and it is just a coincidence best young players on Indy and Atlanta are PF (rumor was they were more into AJ Griffin than JJ in the summer). Murray is more a SF than PF. Toronto line-up post trades:
Quickley-THJ-Barrett-Barnes-Poeltl.