Trade & FA 2023-24: 76ers Believe They Have A Shot at PG13

[mvossman]

I think y'all are overlooking a very real reality where Lively isn't ready, Holmes is shot, and we're stuck with McGee starting every night and playing 20mpg.

Ayton, for all of his flaws (and there really aren't a lot of them), would solidify the center position and provide Lively ample time to grow into his role. If Lively is more ready than what is previously thought, then you hit and are playing with house money given that Ayton only cost THJ+Holmes. Each year that passes is another year that is easier to move Ayton should Lively overtake him in the rotation.

In the meantime, you're adding one of 6 centers in the league that averaged 18/10. Has real playoff experience being a starter for a team that went to the finals, and isn't some slow plodding center.

Does he have motivation issues? There is a lot of evidence that he does. But there are also a lot of explanations as to why. I'd much rather run the risk of Ayton being unmotivated 50% max of the time (and have Lively cover the gaps), than hope Holmes can bounce back.

Also, THJ+Holmes is just the cost??? That's it??? I mean c'mon. That's practically free. Holmes wasn't apart of the roster last year and THJ is a great role player but isn't integral at all as evidence of the WCF run where the team didn't miss him for a single game.

There is a reason he is potentially that cheap.  He will be clogging our cap for years at a time when that is particularly punishing with the new CBA.  I will give you another what if.  What if it becomes brutally clear that Ayton is just another center with motor problems and Lively shows he is ready for significant minutes soon.  Now you are in a position where you have to dump Ayton after his value drops further.  Didn't we already go down this route with KP?

[SkenfromLMF]

I think you are overlooking the very real reality where Ayton suuuuuuuuuucks.

I’d rather they pick a center at random from among the posters in this community.

My man LIKES HIM some Dwight Powell - Gotcha!

[KillerLeft]

Didn't we already go down this route with KP?

This.

There are currently exactly two centers I find max-worthy, Jokic and Adebayo. Maaaaaaybe JJJ if he keeps improving.

Obviously, Embiid is on that level, talent wise, but I just couldn’t bring myself to root for that guy and all of his lazy, loser mentality. 

Ayton is so average it makes me sick. I wouldn’t want him at MLE money.

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My man LIKES HIM some Dwight Powell - Gotcha!

Compared to Ayton, at their respective price points? Absofreakinglutely, and I say so with pride.

[cow]

This.

There are currently exactly two centers I find max-worthy, Jokic and Adebayo. Maaaaaaybe JJJ if he keeps improving.

Obviously, Embiid is on that level, talent wise, but I just couldn’t bring myself to root for that guy and all of his lazy, loser mentality. 

Ayton is so average it makes me sick. I wouldn’t want him at MLE money.

---

Compared to Ayton, at their respective price points? Absofreakinglutely, and I say so with pride.

I like Bam, but I wouldn't give him the max after watching a ton of him this post season.  He's still young so maybe he develops more offensively, but defenses seemed to dare him to take mid-range jumpers and he refused.  He doesn't have great touch around the rim and sometimes struggles catching passes.  I love how he passes though and he doesn't cheat you for effort.

[KillerLeft]

I like Bam, but I wouldn't give him the max after watching a ton of him this post season.  He's still young so maybe he develops more offensively, but defenses seemed to dare him to take mid-range jumpers and he refused.  He doesn't have great touch around the rim and sometimes struggles catching passes.  I love how he passes though and he doesn't cheat you for effort.

I’m with you. I think his offensive game will improve, but honestly I think he’s the single most disruptive defender in the sport so it wouldn’t have to for him to secure the bag from me.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

I'm not in the camp of "AYTON SUX"
But Phoenix (at least to me) is in no position to deny McGee if the Mavs are offering them THJ+Holmes+McGee.
I'd ask Phoenix at least a second round pick if they have those.

IMHo, if the Mavs replace McGee and DP (and they needed to be replaced) with someone marginally better, I'd be okay with it.
Strengthen the 4 NOT the 5. Better yet get someone who can play both positions (and that's not Ayton).
My reasons are not even entirely salary based.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

I’m with KillerLeft on this one. I’d rather have THJ than Ayton with only two years left on a descending deal for Timmy that pays him half of what Ayton makes per year.

[cow]

I'm not in the camp of "AYTON SUX"
But Phoenix (at least to me) is in no position to deny McGee if the Mavs are offering them THJ+Holmes+McGee.
I'd ask Phoenix at least a second round pick if they have those.

IMHo, if the Mavs replace McGee and DP (and they needed to be replaced) with someone marginally better, I'd be okay with it.
Strengthen the 4 NOT the 5. Better yet get someone who can play both positions (and that's not Ayton).
My reasons are not even entirely salary based.

I think Phoenix says no.  I think they want to be rid of Ayton but they'll want useful players in return.  THJ checks that box.  If you squint hard enough, McGee checks that box because of a prior relationship, but Holmes doesn't.  Sacramento just paid a FRP to be rid of him.  If he can't return to form, that's a body and salary they can't be rid of.  Maybe THJ + McGee + Maxi + Bullock gets that conversation started.

[KillerLeft]

I think Phoenix says no.  I think they want to be rid of Ayton but they'll want useful players in return.  THJ checks that box.  If you squint hard enough, McGee checks that box because of a prior relationship, but Holmes doesn't.  Sacramento just paid a FRP to be rid of him.  If he can't return to form, that's a body and salary they can't be rid of.  Maybe THJ + McGee + Maxi + Bullock gets that conversation started.

If the rumor is to be believed, McGee was the deal breaker. Holmes and THJ worked for them, but neither team is willing to end up with McGee for financial reasons.

[cow]

If the rumor is to be believed, McGee was the deal breaker. Holmes and THJ worked for them, but neither team is willing to end up with McGee for financial reasons.

Which rumor?

[SleepingHero]

$32,459,438
$34,005,126
$35,550,814

23% of the cap
*23% of the cap 
*23% of the cap

* estimated using hoopshype salary cap projections.

Having your starting center only be at most 25% of the cap isn't bad at all. Lively+Ayton will combine to be less than 40 mil.  Looking around the league lets see what the top 16 teams are spending combined on their center rotation for the next season:
West:
DEN-Jokic(47.6)+*Bryant(vet min)+*Jordan(vet min)= 51,638,790
MEM- Adams (12.6)+Aldama(2.1)+Tillman(1.9)=16,724,881
SAC- Sabonis(22)+Len(5)+Metu(2)= 29,113,575
PHX- Ayton(32)+*Landale(~2.2)+*Biyombo(vet min)=36,668,531
LAC- Zubac(10.9)+*Plumlee(~12)=22,933,333
GSW- Looney(7.5)+*Draymond (~25 mil)=33,306,469
LAL-AD(40.6)+Bamba(10.3)+Thompson(vet min)=52,919,475
MIN- Gobert(41)+KAT(36)+Reid(13)=89,966,600

East:
MIL- *Lopez (~13)+Giannis(45.6)=58,640,084
BOS- KP(36)+Timelord(11.5)+Horford(10)+Kornet(2.4)=60,000,933
PHI- Embiid (47.6)+*Reed (3)+*Harrell(vet min)+*Dedmon(vet min)=54,638,790
CLE- Allen (20)+Mobley (8.9)+*Lopez(vet min)+*Ed Davis (vet min)=32,921,430
NYK- Robinson (15.6)+Hartenstien(9.2)+Sims (1.9)=26,854,835
BRK- Simmons (37.8)+Claxton(9.6)+Sharpe(2.2)=49,728,448
ATL- Capela (20.6)+Okongwu(8.1)=28,725,063
MIA- Bam(32.6)+*Love(~BAE)+*Zeller(vet min)+*Yurtseven(min)=40,617,687

*Estimates/Assumptions made on pending FA's. 

Dallas' spending on the center position under this proposed Ayton trade?- 41,811,618

7/16 teams will be spending much more than Dallas for at least the next 3 years (although those teams have an all-star at the position). Throw in MEM too if you want to count Jaren Jackson as a small ball 5. ATL, CLE, and SAC, are almost definitely going to surpass this amount when their rookies/FA's are up for an extension within the next year. 

Trading for Ayton is not this albatross people are making it out to be. His production is literally right there with the other all-star bigs that put up similar numbers and the Mavs would be right in line in terms of spending properly on the center position.

[KillerLeft]

Which rumor?

The one we’ve been discussing for the past hour. 

Just a rumor, but supposedly it was THJ, Holmes and McGee for Ayton. PHX won’t do it with McGee’s money in the deal, Dallas won’t do it without the McGee dump.

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SH, I’m against paying almost ANY center that much.

[SleepingHero]

The one we’ve been discussing for the past hour. 

Just a rumor, but supposedly it was THJ, Holmes and McGee for Ayton. PHX won’t do it with McGee’s money in the deal, Dallas won’t do it without the McGee dump.

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SH, I’m against paying almost ANY center that much.

I know you're adamantly against it. But I'm gonna die on this hill trying to convince you that Ayton is worth it for this team and this timeline. Ayton would also qualify apart of the young core being only 24. Literally the only reason why this asset is available is because PHX went all in for next year and only has half a roster.

To get such a center for the value the Mavs are sending out it's a no brainer. 

According to the Suns forums, their beat reporter Gambo said on air the deal he heard was Bullock+THJ+McGee. Does that change your mind at all?

We have 2 different deals but the core is the same. THJ+ 15 mil of salary out. It's about as net neutral as can be.

[SleepingHero]

There is a reason he is potentially that cheap.  He will be clogging our cap for years at a time when that is particularly punishing with the new CBA.  I will give you another what if.  What if it becomes brutally clear that Ayton is just another center with motor problems and Lively shows he is ready for significant minutes soon.  Now you are in a position where you have to dump Ayton after his value drops further.  Didn't we already go down this route with KP?

He's that cheap has little to do with his production and more to do with PHX wanting/needing to fill out the rest of their roster. Would you rather have a top 4 with zero depth of merry minimums? Or sell off the worst cog in the top 4 to get 2 bench players and have a more balanced team?

That's why PHX is making him available. Of course his contract has a lot to do with why the market is so dry for Ayton, but it's also because the lack of suitors who need a win-now center and can also scrounge up the correct type of player+contract to match Ayton's.

11/15 teams (ignoring PHX here) have their playoff ready center. The other 4 are MIL, LAC, GSW, Nets. Out of these 4 the only sneaky suitors that make sense for Ayton are the Bucks. 

Out of the 14 non-playoff teams, only CHA, POR, and HOU really fit. Portland is the obvious suitor here. Neither team are giving anything more than a mishmash of role players:
POR= Nurkic+Little+Knox. 
MIL=Allen+Portis+Connaughton 

THJ+Bullock+McGee (or THJ+Holmes+McGee) are competitive pieces to those offers, but Dallas' deal is the only one that offers the most financial flexibility in 2 years.

[KillerLeft]

According to the Suns forums, their beat reporter Gambo said on air the deal he heard was Bullock+THJ+McGee. Does that change your mind at all?.

That’s worse. Ayton, Lively Kleber AND Holmes on the books?? TWO rotation wings outgoing?

[SleepingHero]

That’s worse. Ayton, Lively Kleber AND Holmes on the books?? TWO rotation wings outgoing?

Right but we're shedding statistically the worse rotation player on the roster in Bullock....

Ok ok there's no shot I'm gonna convince ya tonight. SO I'm gonna say agree to disagree and we'll table the convo until you see Ayton's first 20/20 game as a Mav. 

Shifting gears, a Mavs podcast called 21 going on 77 alluded to some crazy type of trade. Their exact words were: 
Person 1: Very happy the Mavs have done what they done. We got hit with a little bit of information...maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't happen, I don't even want to speculate on it. It's so explosive that I don't even wanna speculate on it.

Person 2: I'm not going to speculate on it.

Person 1: I don't want to talk about it. I don't want to hint around it. I'm just, just like 'you know what if that shit happens, we'll giggle about it and do an emergency pod'; but it feels too good to be true. It feels fake, I'm sorry. 

Person 2: It feels fake but it makes sense based on what we know. 

Person 1: I agree (x4), 

Person 2: And when we get off I'll tell you exactly why

Person 1: And then the framework of that move just has happened, multiple times, actually. 

Person 2: Exactly. 

Person 1: So yeah, I would lose my shit. I would build a statue.

Person 2: I'd be a hypocrite

Person 1: I've already started to turn 3 weeks ago. 

-----
End of convo


Any ideas on what kind of deal they could be alluding to? I wouldn't classify an Ayton deal as "build a statue" worthy.

[KillerLeft]

Right but we're shedding statistically the worse rotation player on the roster in Bullock....

Ok ok there's no shot I'm gonna convince ya tonight. SO I'm gonna say agree to disagree and we'll table the convo until you see Ayton's first 20/20 game as a Mav. 

Shifting gears, a Mavs podcast called 21 going on 77 alluded to some crazy type of trade. Their exact words were: 
Person 1: Very happy the Mavs have done what they done. We got hit with a little bit of information...maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't happen, I don't even want to speculate on it. It's so explosive that I don't even wanna speculate on it.

Person 2: I'm not going to speculate on it.

Person 1: I don't want to talk about it. I don't want to hint around it. I'm just, just like 'you know what if that shit happens, we'll giggle about it and do an emergency pod'; but it feels too good to be true. It feels fake, I'm sorry. 

Person 2: It feels fake but it makes sense based on what we know. 

Person 1: I agree (x4), 

Person 2: And when we get off I'll tell you exactly why

Person 1: And then the framework of that move just has happened, multiple times, actually. 

Person 2: Exactly. 

Person 1: So yeah, I would lose my shit. I would build a statue.

Person 2: I'd be a hypocrite

Person 1: I've already started to turn 3 weeks ago. 

-----
End of convo


Any ideas on what kind of deal they could be alluding to? I wouldn't classify an Ayton deal as "build a statue" worthy.

Dame?

---

Dame is the biggest name I can think of who might get suddenly traded.

Siakim, maybe?

[SleepingHero]

Dame?

The only one that really came to mind was Lebron. Especially the "3 week" part of it. Lebron rumors were flying then.

But you know who else would be a "blow your mind" type of deal? Zion.

[KillerLeft]

The only one that really came to mind was Lebron. Especially the "3 week" part of it. Lebron rumors were flying then.

But you know who else would be a "blow your mind" type of deal? Zion.

Zion actually wouldn’t surprise me that much.

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Brandan Ingrim?

[SleepingHero]

Zion actually wouldn’t surprise me that much.

Your mind wouldn't be blown if the Mavs somehow swung a trade for Zion and all it cost I'd assume was THJ+Bullock+Hardy?

Would you even want Zion?

Luka
Ky
Green
Zion
Holmes

Is a pretty spicy starting 5.