Trade & FA 2023-24: 76ers Believe They Have A Shot at PG13

[Chicagojk]

I saw a fringe website propose a DLo for Chris Paul. I thought it was interesting. James and Paul are close. Lakers can keep the rest of their team, use pick #17 and the MLE. Not as good as Kyrie but friendlier contract and could play in a supportive role.

Not sure if it is best for Phx. I am not a DLo fan but he is younger and provides better shooting than Paul..

[Jakeospikez]

What about adding Bamba's 10M expiring to that? Is it not a salary match? That matches up to like 50M, or 44.5M over apron.

[omahen]

Yeah, I figure that he might get an offer in that vicinity.  I'm not convinced he's worth more than the MLE (12.2M) or a bit more, per his play in WAS too being considered. But teams often do ignore the track record and become enamored by the last few games. Recency bias.

Even at the top end of that, Kyrie's only able to get about 36.M in a snt with Rui, Beas,Vandy. I don't think that gets off the ground.

I agree, Rui at 15+ mil is an overpay imho.

[SleepingHero]

Trying to figure out SnT's with LA's pieces for Kyrie is fitting a square peg into a round hole. It might work if you force it, but it's just not going to make sense.

Only things the Lakers have that is of any interest to the Mavs are their 2 picks, Reaves, Rui, and Vandy. Reaves+Rui come with BY issues in SnT and Vandy's contract is too cheap to even matter.

I'd tell the Lakers to go find a 3rd team that can give us what we want on top of your picks, or no deal. Thin

Thinking out loud, maybe there's something here with PHX.....?

Lakers send Rui+Beasley to PHX. Mavs send THJ to PHX and Kyrie to Lakers. Mavs receive Ayton+Lakers 2029.

PHX get Rui+Beasley+THJ for Ayton, which is quite the haul as it's potentially 2 starters. Lakers get their 3rd star and can keep Reaves. Mavs get their starting center and a future first that opens up a lot of trades with #10+27+29.

EDIT: Cause of money, odds are the deal will have to be expanded to potentially include CP3+Vando to Dallas and Bamba to the Suns.

This is me assuming Rui gets a starting deal around 16 mil and Kyrie signs for 45 mil.

So a monster 8 player trade between 3 teams. Not likely it happens, but it solves a lot of things for a lot of teams.

[Chicagojk]

The Kryie thing is so hard for me. He was really fun to watch with the Mavs, even if the team sucked. I fear if we lose him, it is just a matter of time before Luka leaves. Although everything in my body is telling me, I will regret mightily if we resign him to a max/near max deal...which will also end up with Luka leaving.

But I hate seeing the Lakers get him. Sure, Lebron could lose it anytime soon, but that team looks really good if you add Kyrie to the team. Plus, you know the Mavs will find a way to end up less in return.

So, I guess what I think is even though I am feeling otherwise, this front office went all in with Kyrie. Being unable to resign him would make me want to get rid of the front office (BTW, I generally like Nico. I heard him interviewed after the lottery and thought he came across well, but that is not the determining factor of his role). So, as of now, I guess I prefer to resign him. Although every time I hear him talk, I go a little bit the other way. I want people surrounding Luka who are all about trying to win a championship. The last 4-5 this has not been a strong point for Kyrie.

[omahen]

The Kyrie thing at max, it makes even less sense for Lakers, imho. They would be basically left with AD, LeBron, Kyrie, Reaves and vet minimums. AD is a 50 game regular season player and LeBron can't play at 100 % through regular season anymore. I think they need way more depth. Without Kyrie taking way less money, I just don't see it. But, if he does, Mavs are left with nothing.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Thinking out loud, maybe there's something here with PHX.....?

Lakers send Rui+Beasley to PHX. Mavs send THJ to PHX and Kyrie to Lakers. Mavs receive Ayton+Lakers 2029.

PHX get Rui+Beasley+THJ for Ayton, which is quite the haul as it's potentially 2 starters. Lakers get their 3rd star and can keep Reaves. Mavs get their starting center and a future first that opens up a lot of trades with #10+27+29.

Maybe something more simple (leaving out Rui avoids BYC and hard cap for Phoenix).   BTW, I don’t think we have to accommodate Kyrie’s max in a deal with LA.  They can’t get there through cap room and $46.9mm is just a killer to their ability to fill the roster and stay under the apron.  Trade matching is one issue in setting his number.  But, paying who they want to keep and using their exception are also factors.

Phoenix Out:  Ayton (32.4)                       Phoenix In:  Beasley, Bamba and Reggie (36.5)
LA Out:  Beasley, Vandy, Bamba (31.4).    LA In:  Kyrie (up to 39.35)
Dallas Out:  Kyrie, Reggie (up to 49.8).     Dallas In:  Ayton, Vandy (37.1)

Dallas is probably owed some draft compensation here.  If THJ needs to be in instead of Reggie, I suspect Shamet comes to Dallas.  So, Phoenix gets Beasley, Bamba and THJ (44.7) for Ayton and Shamet (42.7).  Dallas gets Ayton, Shamet and Vandy (47.3) for Kyrie and THJ (up to 57.2).  Kyrie’s number doesn’t change because the LA outgoing didn’t change.

[omahen]

I think Bullock to Phoenix could be a bit awkward.

https://twitter.com/NationMffl/status/16...5321747457

[SleepingHero]

Maybe something more simple (leaving out Rui avoids BYC and hard cap for Phoenix).   BTW, I don’t think we have to accommodate Kyrie’s max in a deal with LA.  They can’t get there through cap room and $46.9mm is just a killer to their ability to fill the roster and stay under the apron.  Trade matching is one issue in setting his number.  But, paying who they want to keep and using their exception are also factors.

Phoenix Out:  Ayton (32.4)                       Phoenix In:  Beasley, Bamba and Reggie (36.5)
LA Out:  Beasley, Vandy, Bamba (31.4).    LA In:  Kyrie (up to 39.35)
Dallas Out:  Kyrie, Reggie (up to 49.8).     Dallas In:  Ayton, Vandy (37.1)

Dallas is probably owed some draft compensation here.  If THJ needs to be in instead of Reggie, I suspect Shamet comes to Dallas.  So, Phoenix gets Beasley, Bamba and THJ (44.7) for Ayton and Shamet (42.7).  Dallas gets Ayton, Shamet and Vandy (47.3) for Kyrie and THJ (up to 57.2).  Kyrie’s number doesn’t change because the LA outgoing didn’t change.

Add in a LAL 2029 FRP to Dallas and out of all the deals I think this is the absolute best outcome. 

I also think every team gets exactly what they want. PHX gets their depth and center replacement. LAL get their star (and unbalance their team yet again). 

Mavs get a young center and a defensive wing, while reloading on a FRP to go shopping for a better fitting 2nd star. Getting LAL 2029 allows the Mavs to realistically go shopping for a Siakam, OG, Lavine, etc.

This is my ideal scenario now.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I don´t think you understant how DFG% works. Turner gave up 49.7% overall. Inside 6ft he gave up 58.5%. That´s not abysmal. It´s pretty good for a big because the expected outcome was 65.1%. -6.6%.
Wood on the other hand did not defend as many attempt close to the rim. Overall he gave up 48.5% compared to the expected outcome fo 48%. +0.5%. Wood actually  had better numbers inside the paint this season. -7.4%. When he actually tried to protect the rim (much lower volume) his shot defense numbers look pretty good.


But that´s obviously not the whole story. Tracking data isn´t telling us anything about the circumstances of shot attempts. I like to use it for bigs because shot defense inside the paint strongly correlates with the eyetest when it comes to rim protection. In the last few seasons the ranking was dominated by Gobert and Lopez.

To get an idea about overall defensive impact I would take +/- numbers over anything else. Ideally in a big sample size. Turner has been a consistent positive for his team over multiple seasons. With different lineups next to him. Different coaches. Different schemes. As a single big. Next to Sabonis. On a playoff team. On a tanking team.
Going along with various regression of +/- data like RAPM or RPM that all rank Turner as one of the best defenders over the last five seasons.

This season clearly hasn´t been as good as previous ones but considering the circumstances (teammates, bigger role on offense, tanking) I am not willing to ignore his performance in the previous seasons.


My personal opinion when it comes to rebounding is similar to my take on defense. I couldn´t care less about individual rebounding numbers. Over the years we have seen too many bigs that averaged 10-15 rebounds per game that had a negative impact on team rebounding percentage.
Metrics like REB% or adjust REB chance tell us that Steven Adams or Brook Lopez are terrible rebounders. But if we look at on/off data their teams are performing a lot better on the boards with both on the floor. How is that possible? In my opinion the primary role of the big is to boxout. Requires discipline and unselfishness. Priority for a big like Lopez or Adams isn´t the ball. It´s the opposing big.

I wouldn´t put Turner in the same category as Adams or Lopez but I also don´t think that he is as bad as the counting stats suggest. Based on the eyetest he tends to be over aggressive on shot contest and can take himself out of position for the rebound but overall he isn´t hurting his team on the defensive board. Offensive rebounding is more about the scheme. As a stretch big he isn´t getting as many opportunities to crash the board.

Edit. Sorry for derailing. Somehow turned into a monologue about my basketball/stats/advanced metrics philosophy.

Thanks for the response.  Again, I'm not comparing him to Gobert, Adams, or Valančiūnas.  That's not the profile of a big we need.  I'm comparing him to J. Allen, modern day bigs who can defend in switching and can rebound from a greater distance.  This is not an under the basket dinosaur like Drummond.  It's in the vein of Towns, AD, Embid, and what Noel should have developed into.

Rebounding...  all stats, advanced or not, point to the fact Turner is poor rebounder .  His rebounding since getting drafted simply has not materialized.  

Defense...  comparing the two, Allen is a better defender overall and at 5-9ft, 25-29ft.  Turner is better at 10-24ft.  They are a push at 0-5ft.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Maybe something more simple (leaving out Rui avoids BYC and hard cap for Phoenix).   BTW, I don’t think we have to accommodate Kyrie’s max in a deal with LA.  They can’t get there through cap room and $46.9mm is just a killer to their ability to fill the roster and stay under the apron.  Trade matching is one issue in setting his number.  But, paying who they want to keep and using their exception are also factors.

Phoenix Out:  Ayton (32.4)                       Phoenix In:  Beasley, Bamba and Reggie (36.5)
LA Out:  Beasley, Vandy, Bamba (31.4).    LA In:  Kyrie (up to 39.35)
Dallas Out:  Kyrie, Reggie (up to 49.8).     Dallas In:  Ayton, Vandy (37.1)

Dallas is probably owed some draft compensation here.  If THJ needs to be in instead of Reggie, I suspect Shamet comes to Dallas.  So, Phoenix gets Beasley, Bamba and THJ (44.7) for Ayton and Shamet (42.7).  Dallas gets Ayton, Shamet and Vandy (47.3) for Kyrie and THJ (up to 57.2).  Kyrie’s number doesn’t change because the LA outgoing didn’t change.

Turning Kyrie into two starting defenders is the type of idea I like.  I also think this is the type of compensation PHX will get for Atyton.

I'd love getting Schroeder for backup PG, but admittedly don't know enough about the CBA to know if that's possible given he's an UFA.  Craig or Okogie would be nice too, but again, UFAs.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Add in a LAL 2029 FRP to Dallas and out of all the deals I think this is the absolute best outcome. 

I also think every team gets exactly what they want. PHX gets their depth and center replacement. LAL get their star (and unbalance their team yet again). 

Mavs get a young center and a defensive wing, while reloading on a FRP to go shopping for a better fitting 2nd star. Getting LAL 2029 allows the Mavs to realistically go shopping for a Siakam, OG, Lavine, etc.

This is my ideal scenario now.

Looking at the numbers in a little more detail...

While Kyrie could trade match up to $39.3 in such a deal, there just isn't any way he can get that while they keep Rui and Reaves.  Maybe mid-30's or even low 30's.  But that is the price he pays for ring chasing.  There's probably a version of this where McGee goes to Phoenix and Bamba ends up in Dallas.  It would help Phoenix for total salary to drop rather than rise in this deal.

Depending on what version of this we use, Dallas is well below the tax line if Bertans is S/W (and below in one version where he isn't stretched).  We'd have access to the full MLE and the BAE.  I wonder if now is the time for Dallas to go shopping with 27 and LA's 2029 (I'm dubious about the 2023 pick being included here).  Or, is Dallas better off waiting until the TDL or even next summer (next summer presumably they can trade 25, 27 and LA's 2029).  In the version where we send out Reggie and McGee and get Bamba, the lineup looks like this:

Ayton 32.4     Bamba       10.3        Powell       4.4 (BAE)
Maxi   11.0     Vanderbilt    4.6        Morris       2.0
THJ    17.9     MLE           12.0        Lawson     2.0
Green  4.8      Hardy          1.8        Holiday     2.0
Luka    40.1    Wallace        5.2        Min          2.0
          106.2                     33.9                      12.4      + 4.4 Dead Money = 156.9

Note that we get much younger with this AND still have resources to take a big swing at another high end guy.  Since we are helping two older teams in LA and Phoenix get better in the short term, it makes sense that we'd prioritize guys in their mid and even early 20's so that we are ready to take up the mantle once the OG's are out.  This also sets up Dallas well to manage aprons going forward.  As guys age out at one end, you’ll have Hardy, Green, Vanderbilt and eventually #10 to pay more.  This is a single star plus better secondary guys and depth instead of two or three stars and very little behind it.

[BigDirk41]

I think it's speaks volumes of the state of this franchise that the majority on here are now ok with turning Kyrie into a couple of role players and a pick. No offense to anyone, but I don't understand. Also Luka is gone if they lose Kyrie for pennies on the dollar. We gave up a LOT to get Kyrie so we can't afford to give him away.

[StepBackJay]

I think it's speaks volumes of the state of this franchise that the majority on here are now ok with turning Kyrie into a couple of role players and a pick. No offense to anyone,  but I don't understand. Also Luka is gone if they lose Kyrie for pennies on the dollar. We gave up a LOT to get Kyrie so we can't afford to give him away.

Agreed

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

Kyrie's a walking time bomb.
A bomb who can go off any minute.
Imagine having him for 4 years with the amount of money he's gonna get.
Anyone within the organization, the fans, the media has to tip toe a line to always make him happy.
And even if things are going right, just remember that this is Kyrie, he doesn't need a reason to make something out of nothing.

That said, I rather sign him than lose him for nothing.

But if the Mavs could get fitting players and a pick for him, it's the best route forward. Yes, the Mavs are going to get less, but that's what they got when they traded for him. It's a dumb move, but it's done. All they need to do is to salvage whatever it is left of the aftermath.

I don't think Luka leaves if Kyrie isn't retained. One man's opinion, but, what the Mavs would get in exchange for him, the roster building, the coaching, would determine Luka's fate. Can't win with Kidd, can't win with Cuban deciding what's good for the team, can't win if your GM is a step too slow.

[StepBackJay]

The Kyrie thing at max, it makes even less sense for Lakers, imho. They would be basically left with AD, LeBron, Kyrie, Reaves and vet minimums. AD is a 50 game regular season player and LeBron can't play at 100 % through regular season anymore. I think they need way more depth. Without Kyrie taking way less money, I just don't see it. But, if he does, Mavs are left with nothing.

I agree with that and Mavs would have cap space which isn't nothing. Different than when JB left and they literally had nothing bc they were over the cap.

[Branduil]

Imagine how much money the Mavs could have saved if Cuban had just been willing to pay a younger and better PG $30 million a year

[Jakeospikez]

Already went over most of the things that can be done if Kyrie stays. Will likely be in a better position if he stays as long as it's for an amount that isn't a ton more than Luka's current supermax, but it looks like the Mavs could still be in decent shape even if he doesn't want to sign here. Nobody here knows what he truly wants, so just going over some of the options out there. Nothing wrong with that. Should have a much better idea of what's gonna go down after draft night in a month.

[Jym]

Imagine how much money the Mavs could have saved if Cuban had just been willing to pay a younger and better PG $30 million a year

even his 5 year max at $35 mil a year is seeming pretty good right about now

[KillerLeft]

even his 5 year max at $35 mil a year is seeming pretty good right about now

Very good.