Trade & FA 2023-24: PHX Wants Lebron+Bronny| Hawks to Shop Hunter

[ItsGoTime]

KP has a 36 mil player option. Imho, he either signs something like 100/4 or he rather takes his option.

Yep, I’ve been skeptical that he doesn’t exercise that option despite reports saying he will. All bets are off with a new GM and his next contract HAS to be Isaac-like, incentive laden.

[DallasMaverick]

Yep, I’ve been skeptical that he doesn’t exercise that option despite reports saying he will. All bets are off with a new GM and his next contract HAS to be Isaac-like, incentive laden.

I feel like KP's market value has slidden significantly below $36m, particularly with the new CBA.

So he'll pick up the option.  But in another year, Washington will have options.

I can't see them S&T for him, either, at the end of the season.

Next contract in the $15-20m range?

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I feel like KP's market value has slidden significantly below $36m, particularly with the new CBA.

So he'll pick up the option.  But in another year, Washington will have options.

I can't see them S&T for him, either, at the end of the season.

Next contract in the $15-20m range?

He's still a top-5 center in scoring and only behind Horford, Markkanen, and Olynyk in 3pt%.  That said, his rebounding and defense has fallen off dramatically.  Ya, probably more like $20-25m range.

[DallasMaverick]

He's still a top-5 center in scoring and only behind Horford, Markkanen, and Olynyk in 3pt%.  That said, his rebounding and defense has fallen off dramatically.  Ya, probably more like $20-25m range.

A little better version of Bertans?

[ItsGoTime]

He's still a top-5 center in scoring and only behind Horford, Markkanen, and Olynyk in 3pt%.  That said, his rebounding and defense has fallen off dramatically.  Ya, probably more like $20-25m range.

I think that’s about right if he hits all his incentives. Otherwise, in the $10-15M range. Lots of games played incentives.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

A little better version of Bertans?

???  Are you serious?

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

The problem with 1 is the Kyrie window. Can the Mavs really afford to wait two years for the pick to really develop? In that time Kyrie will likely find something to destroy the relationship with Mavs. Or he will simply start falling of the cliff. I am not totally against the pick, but they would really need to hit it big time.

I completely agree.  I'm not saying go after a bloated vet, but looking to talent that has been in the league a few years and has progressed.  This jumpstarts what you're say by a few years.

[DallasMaverick]

???  Are you serious?

Maybe I'm minimizing a bit.

...but if you squint just right...

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Using Reb% and DefRtg, I normalized the two at even weight and ranked all players under 26yo who played in at least 40 games last year. Here is the ranking. This is *somewhat* scientific on who our FO should be targeting. Clearly obtainability is not factored (eg, JJJ, Mobley, etc).

1 Jarrett Allen CLE 25
2 Mark Williams CHA 21
3 Isaiah Hartenstein NYK 25
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23
5 Evan Mobley CLE 21
6 Mitchell Robinson NYK 25
7 Nic Claxton BKN 24
8 Walker Kessler UTA 21
9 Nick Richards CHA 25
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 24
11 Deandre Ayton PHX 24
12 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 22
13 Dyson Daniels NOP 20
14 Bam Adebayo MIA 25
15 Mo Bamba LAL 25
16 Xavier Tillman MEM 24
17 Sam Hauser BOS 25
18 Josh Okogie PHX 24
19 Bol Bol ORL 23
20 Jayson Tatum BOS 25
21 Jalen Duren DET 19
22 Desmond Bane MEM 24
23 Santi Aldama MEM 22
24 Hamidou Diallo DET 24
25 Ja Morant MEM 23
26 Grant Williams BOS 24
27 Dennis Smith Jr. CHA 25
28 Tari Eason HOU 22
29 Naz Reid MIN 23
30 Rui Hachimura LAL 25
31 Jericho Sims NYK 24
32 Immanuel Quickley NYK 23
33 Thomas Bryant DEN 25
34 Jalen Smith IND 23
35 Lamar Stevens CLE 25
36 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 24
37 Daniel Gafford WAS 24
38 Tre Mann OKC 22
39 Precious Achiuwa TOR 23
40 Anthony Lamb GSW 25
41 Scottie Barnes TOR 21
42 Obi Toppin NYK 25
43 Oshae Brissett IND 24
44 Josh Giddey OKC 20
45 Deni Avdija WAS 22
46 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 24
47 Jose Alvarado NOP 25
48 Isaac Okoro CLE 22
49 Jordan Goodwin WAS 24
50 Isaiah Jackson IND 21
51 Jaylin Williams OKC 20
52 Tyler Herro MIA 23
53 Aaron Wiggins OKC 24
54 Christian Braun DEN 22
55 Naji Marshall NOP 25
56 Cole Anthony ORL 23
57 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl OKC 22
58 Zach Collins SAS 25
59 Franz Wagner ORL 21
60 Isaiah Stewart DET 22
61 Coby White CHI 23
62 Sandro Mamukelashvili SAS 24
63 Anthony Edwards MIN 21
64 Luka Doncic DAL 24
65 O.G. Anunoby TOR 25
66 Darius Garland CLE 23
67 Brandon Ingram NOP 25
68 Jaylen Nowell MIN 23
69 Jalen Suggs ORL 21
70 Talen Horton-Tucker UTA 22
71 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 23
72 Troy Brown Jr. LAL 23
73 Herbert Jones NOP 24
74 Jonathan Kuminga GSW 20
75 John Collins ATL 25
76 Austin Reaves LAL 24
77 Jaden McDaniels MIN 22
78 De'Anthony Melton PHI 24
79 Paolo Banchero ORL 20
80 Marvin Bagley III DET 24
81 Jalen McDaniels PHI 25
82 David Roddy MEM 22
83 Jalen Williams OKC 22
84 Alperen Sengun HOU 20
85 Isaiah Joe OKC 23
86 Patrick Williams CHI 21
87 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 24
88 Bryce McGowens CHA 20
89 AJ Griffin ATL 19
90 Josh Green DAL 22
91 Caleb Houstan ORL 20
92 Malik Monk SAC 25
93 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 24
94 Trey Murphy III NOP 22
95 Luguentz Dort OKC 24
96 Kevin Knox II POR 23
97 Jordan Poole GSW 23
98 James Wiseman DET 22
99 Markelle Fultz ORL 24
100 Tyrese Maxey PHI 22
101 P.J. Washington CHA 24
102 Davion Mitchell SAC 24
103 Trendon Watford POR 22
104 Jeremy Sochan SAS 20
105 Jordan Nwora IND 24
106 Cam Thomas BKN 21
107 Quentin Grimes NYK 23
108 Theo Maledon CHA 21
109 Saddiq Bey ATL 24
110 De'Andre Hunter ATL 25
111 Bennedict Mathurin IND 20
112 Daishen Nix HOU 21
113 Romeo Langford SAS 23
114 Keegan Murray SAC 22
115 Kenyon Martin Jr. HOU 22
116 Chris Duarte IND 25
117 RJ Barrett NYK 22
118 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 24
119 Isaiah Livers DET 24
120 Ochai Agbaji UTA 23
121 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 20
122 R.J. Hampton DET 22
123 Trae Young ATL 24
124 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25
125 Corey Kispert WAS 24
126 Kevin Huerter SAC 24
127 Aaron Nesmith IND 23
128 Ty Jerome GSW 25
129 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19
130 Bones Hyland LAC 22
131 Anfernee Simons POR 23
132 Collin Sexton UTA 24
133 Lonnie Walker IV LAL 24
134 Kevin Porter Jr. HOU 23
135 Tyrese Haliburton IND 23
136 Killian Hayes DET 21
137 Nassir Little POR 23
138 Tre Jones SAS 23
139 Cam Reddish POR 23
140 Andrew Nembhard IND 23
141 Malaki Branham SAS 20
142 Jaden Ivey DET 21
143 Keldon Johnson SAS 23
144 Jalen Green HOU 21

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Now, take the 74 players from above who are above average of the 174, here is their ranking by value (2022/23 Contract).

Interesting in this list IMO is Mark Williams, Nick Richards, Dyson Daniels, Sam Houser, Josh Okogie, Tari Eason, and our old friend Dennis Smith Jr,

1 Mark Williams CHA 21
2 Nick Richards CHA 25
3 Walker Kessler UTA 21
4 Isaiah Hartenstein NYK 25
5 Evan Mobley CLE 21
6 Xavier Tillman MEM 24
7 Nic Claxton BKN 24
8 Dyson Daniels NOP 20
9 Sam Hauser BOS 25
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 22
11 Josh Okogie PHX 24
12 Bol Bol ORL 23
13 Jarrett Allen CLE 25
14 Mo Bamba LAL 25
15 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 24
16 Desmond Bane MEM 24
17 Mitchell Robinson NYK 25
18 Santi Aldama MEM 22
19 Jalen Duren DET 19
20 Dennis Smith Jr. CHA 25
21 Hamidou Diallo DET 24
22 Grant Williams BOS 24
23 Naz Reid MIN 23
24 Tari Eason HOU 22
25 Jericho Sims NYK 24
26 Immanuel Quickley NYK 23
27 Rui Hachimura LAL 25
28 Thomas Bryant DEN 25
29 Ja Morant MEM 23
30 Lamar Stevens CLE 25
31 Daniel Gafford WAS 24
32 Jalen Smith IND 23
33 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 24
34 Anthony Lamb GSW 25
35 Tre Mann OKC 22
36 Precious Achiuwa TOR 23
37 Oshae Brissett IND 24
38 Obi Toppin NYK 25
39 Scottie Barnes TOR 21
40 Josh Giddey OKC 20
41 Jose Alvarado NOP 25
42 Deni Avdija WAS 22
43 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23
44 Jordan Goodwin WAS 24
45 Isaiah Jackson IND 21
46 Isaac Okoro CLE 22
47 Jaylin Williams OKC 20
48 Aaron Wiggins OKC 24
49 Tyler Herro MIA 23
50 Naji Marshall NOP 25
51 Bam Adebayo MIA 25
52 Christian Braun DEN 22
53 Deandre Ayton PHX 24
54 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl OKC 22
55 Cole Anthony ORL 23
56 Franz Wagner ORL 21
57 Sandro Mamukelashvili SAS 24
58 Zach Collins SAS 25
59 Jayson Tatum BOS 25
60 Isaiah Stewart DET 22
61 Coby White CHI 23
62 Anthony Edwards MIN 21
63 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 24
64 Darius Garland CLE 23
65 Jaylen Nowell MIN 23
66 O.G. Anunoby TOR 25
67 Jalen Suggs ORL 21
68 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 23
69 Troy Brown Jr. LAL 23
70 Talen Horton-Tucker UTA 22
71 Herbert Jones NOP 24
72 Jonathan Kuminga GSW 20
73 Brandon Ingram NOP 25
74 Luka Doncic DAL 24

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

This is the kind of analysis I hope the FO is doing better than me. Anyway, it's taking advanced stats, normalizing them, factoring value, and applying it against younger talent.

[F Gump]

About WASH, my guess is that they want to find a way to win now, rather than tear down/rebuild and shoot for later. KP-Kuzma-Beal as the core. I think that's why they got the LAC GM, since for quite some time LA has been in the mode of repeatedly adding the right MLE-or-less pieces around a few key players.

[F Gump]

IF this is true and these teams, including the Mavs, are behind the 8 ball.  I hope the Mavs don't panic.  It will be hard not to due to their past mistakes and style of doing things in the past.   But if they are stuck, the easiest ways to change that is the folllowing:

1) hit your draft pick.  Either at 10 or trade down.  Expecting immediate results is the short game, but you really want to find an attractive asset who can also be a part of your future core.  
2) target a distressed asset.  You need to be right here because typically this player is going to carry a decent salary.   
3) uncover an hidden asset.   This can be a young player, a player who has not popped yet or a second round/undrafted guy.

You can do all this offseason, but it will be asking a lot of this front office.

I think you nailed it. I suspect the Mavs are going to look for "win now" solutions and might do something stupid out of desperation, but I agree they'd be better off looking for efficient solutions that might take 2-3 years to bloom.

[Jym]

About WASH, my guess is that they want to find a way to win now, rather than tear down/rebuild and shoot for later. KP-Kuzma-Beal as the core. I think that's why they got the LAC GM, since for quite some time LA has been in the mode of repeatedly adding the right MLE-or-less pieces around a few key players.

We can complain but imagine being a Wizards fan
They haven't won 50+ games in a season since 1979.

[IamDougieFresh]

Harden max deal will immediately become one of the worst contracts in the league.

Jim Harden is COOKED

https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status...20865?s=20

[ItsGoTime]

Jim Harden is COOKED

https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status...20865?s=20

Miami should be retroactively be charged for DWade. Dallas starts next season’s first game shooting 30 techs for the 06 finals alone.

[F Gump]

From Hollinger:

How can trades happen if nobody can make a deal? The three teams that should be selling (Portland, Chicago and Washington) insist on buying, and the bad teams have nothing the good teams want. But the biggest obstacle to trades this offseason, by far, is that a number of teams that otherwise would be dealing like crazy have choked off all their options.

https://theathletic.com/4550621/2023/05/...hollinger/

The Mavs are one of the teams in that boat, where their options are choked off and there are no teams selling. As the article implies, there are so many teams looking for help, that any "good" players made available who can improve your team will have a slew of suitors eager to grab the player, which means nothing will be cheap.

I will repeat something I've said a few times before, which is that the Mavs real way forward would be to somehow figure out and embrace the minimum salary and developmental route. Create a pipeline and use it. Part of that requires real minutes, and roles, and an attempt to bring players along. Between the Legends and the 2-ways and some open slots in the roster, with a willingness to invest minutes, I believe you can make things happen IF it becomes your priority.

The Mavs dabble at these things, and piddle around. I think of the times when they have 2-way openings that go unused, for what seems forever, when they should always be aware where "the next guy" is, and grabbing him and getting to work when they get an opening. The lack of urgency speaks volumes.

Cuban is impatient (as we are too) and wants to swap his way to better roster. My crap for your useful player. Or for those hidden gem guys. But no one wants to give away their talent or emerging gems, so that costs an arm and a leg. Instead, gotta create the bargain yourself, for yourself -- go expertly identify and find those guys and develop them into the kind of player we need. Hardy might be a start, but Mavs need to be doing 2-3 of these every year, with the hope that you end up putting 1-2 into your bargain keeper category each year.

There is nothing in the cap to keep that from being doable. Including this year, when there are no assets. It just takes smarts, hard work, and some patience.

[Mapka]

I think you nailed it. I suspect the Mavs are going to look for "win now" solutions and might do something stupid out of desperation, but I agree they'd be better off looking for efficient solutions that might take 2-3 years to bloom.

We already left this path, if we ever had a chance to walk that way.
We traded for a a 3x-year "superstar".

[F Gump]

We already left this path, if we ever had a chance to walk that way.

Are  you saying the window of opportunity for the Mavs to develop their own bargain talent has been closed? I wouldn't think so. In fact, I think it's more important than ever.

Whether Cuban will make it a priority and demand it be done at the highest level does remain to be seen. But I think the team's current roster and payroll screams for them to figure out how to become really superior at the find-and-develop game.

[Chicagojk]

The Mavs are one of the teams in that boat, where their options are choked off and there are no teams selling. As the article implies, there are so many teams looking for help, that any "good" players made available who can improve your team will have a slew of suitors eager to grab the player, which means nothing will be cheap.

I will repeat something I've said a few times before, which is that the Mavs real way forward would be to somehow figure out and embrace the minimum salary and developmental route. Create a pipeline and use it. Part of that requires real minutes, and roles, and an attempt to bring players along. Between the Legends and the 2-ways and some open slots in the roster, with a willingness to invest minutes, I believe you can make things happen IF it becomes your priority.

The Mavs dabble at these things, and piddle around. I think of the times when they have 2-way openings that go unused, for what seems forever, when they should always be aware where "the next guy" is, and grabbing him and getting to work when they get an opening. The lack of urgency speaks volumes.

Cuban is impatient (as we are too) and wants to swap his way to better roster. My crap for your useful player. Or for those hidden gem guys. But no one wants to give away their talent or emerging gems, so that costs an arm and a leg. Instead, gotta create the bargain yourself, for yourself -- go expertly identify and find those guys and develop them into the kind of player we need. Hardy might be a start, but Mavs need to be doing 2-3 of these every year, with the hope that you end up putting 1-2 into your bargain keeper category each year.

There is nothing in the cap to keep that from being doable. Including this year, when there are no assets. It just takes smarts, hard work, and some patience.

I agree.

There are two second round picks last year who I will be curious to see where they wind up.   One is Trevor Keels who was drafted by the Knicks right after we took Hardy.  There were rumors the Mavs liked Keels.   I am sure the trade with Sacramento started prior to the draft if our guy was there.   Hardy just fell more than they thought.    Keels was brought up to the Knicks roster late in the season, released and then signed back as a two way.   I don't believe he is tied to the Knicks after the season.   Can the Knicks guarantee him a spot on the roster?  If the Mavs did like him, why not offer him the 15th spot on a two year deal?   I have some doubts on him as a player, but he is only 19 years old.   

The other is Kennedy Chandler.   He is a smaller point who was released by Memphis as they had to get bigger for the playoffs due to injuries.   He is also young and someone you can develop.

Those are just two examples.