Trade & FA 2023-24: 76ers Believe They Have A Shot at PG13

[omahen]

How about this:
Det: #10, Bertans
NO: Bogi, Maxi
Dal: Valanciunas, Herb Jones, Stewart

Dallas gets a center. I don't like him for playoffs, but would be good for regular season. He is expiring, so perhaps he could be further moved for a better fit. Dallas also gets two ok (but not great) young players who will need to be paid soon.
NO gets a better fitting center next to Zion (if he will ever be healthy) and wing shooter they need.
Det gets a high pick

[DanSchwartzgan]

I agree that #10 seems a lot for a player that is on a max contract and not playing near max level. How about if we split that #10 with another team for multiple picks? Utah for example has #16 (would go to Phoenix) and #28 (stays with Mavs). That would seem decent.

I like the split pick thing with Utah (whether it goes to Phoenix or not).  The normal cost to eat $20mm of salary is a late first.  San Antonio still has $22mm of cap room in the current season and Bertans is owed $17mm next season and $5mm the next.  So, taking #28 to eat $22mm of future salary is pretty close to fair.

If you can get who you wanted at #10 at #16 (and you know they will say they did) AND you can move off of the Bertans money, you've done yourself a ton of good.  You can get to the Full MLE if you move on from Bullock.  Even at Bullock's full price, you can use the TP MLE AND still be under the first apron and eligible for S&T's.  Suddenly, the summer doesn't feel as limiting.

[F Gump]

I think Ayton does not give $32M worth of value. Year after year, he is NOT worth much in the playoffs.

With a defacto hard cap setup, which is how the new CBA seems to be designed, making your payroll efficient is even more important than ever. That's doubly true if you are building your foundation around two or more players with salaries of $40M or more.

I don't think there's an avenue to saying "we will take DA off your hands" that could somehow make it a useful idea for DAL to take him, while also being at a return PHX would embrace. PHX problem (and it is) would merely become your problem, not your solution, and you would be PAYING to have that problem.

The Mavs roster-building goal, with Luka and Kyrie, needs to be to identify players who can help, who ALSO can be cap efficient. Ayton, while he does some good things, is not that guy at all.

[KillerLeft]

I think Ayton does not give $32M worth of value. Year after year, he is NOT worth much in the playoffs.

Agreed. After our last round of Ayton debates (January, maybe?) I took another look and tried to keep an open mind, but I don’t see anything of value there, really (probably an escalation of your point more than an agreement with it, I guess). 

He isn’t very skilled. He brings very little to the table other than mildly above average athletic ability for his size, and he doesn’t even lean on that advantage by playing hard consistently. Doesn’t even run the floor half the time. And, we all know if that’s his only advantage that it won’t last very long. 

I have basically no interest in him becoming a Mav.

[dirkfansince1998]

Question is what you give up to get Ayton. If it is a simple consolidation move that turns THJ+Bullock (to take it from FGump...they aren´t giving you 18m/10m worth of value) or something similar into Ayton it´s a no brainer for me. If it involves this years or a future first I am out. If it involves Kyrie I would ask for additional compensation.

I think the intriguing part for most of us is the idea to have a legit starting big. With all his short comings Ayton still gives you 15-20pts/10reb per game. On top of that he has above average mobility and cannot be played off the floor by small ball lineups or stretch bigs.
He isn´t among the best bigs in the league and not worth a max deal but still an above average starting center.

[ItsGoTime]

We just saw him get played off the court and he was upset about it. Whenever I watch him play, I see a big guy getting pushed around. In that sense, he’s Gobert. Can’t control the paint if you’re getting pushed around.

If we were to get him with a non-Kyrie/pick package, I’d be skeptical, but would keep an open mind until he shows what he’ll be here (maybe he needs a change in scenery, crazier things have happened).

[dirkfansince1998]

We just saw him get played off the court and he was upset about it. Whenever I watch him play, I see a big guy getting pushed around. In that sense, he’s Gobert. Can’t control the paint if you’re getting pushed around.

If we were to get him with a non-Kyrie/pick package, I’d be skeptical, but would keep an open mind until he shows what he’ll be here (maybe he needs a change in scenery, crazier things have happened).

Against the best big in the league and it was more about foul trouble. Looking at shooting percentages Ayton is holding Jokic nearly 10% below his season averages. Not sure if any other player in the league would do a better job. Towns and Gobert certainly didn´t and the T´Wolves doubled a lot. Suns are willing to give up the 1v1.

In the end it comes down to a fundamental roster building question. Is Ayton not worth it because he cannot keep up with Jokic and Embiid? If that is the case. Is there a single big in the league that would be worth more than MLE-type money?

[Mapka]

Against the best big in the league and it was more about foul trouble. Looking at shooting percentages Ayton is holding Jokic nearly 10% below his season averages. Not sure if any other player in the league would do a better job. Towns and Gobert certainly didn´t and the T´Wolves doubled a lot. Suns are willing to give up the 1v1.

In the end it comes down to a fundamental roster building question. Is Ayton not worth it because he cannot keep up with Jokic and Embiid? If that is the case. Is there a single big in the league that would be worth more than MLE-type money?

Jokic.
But other than that I wouldn't pay much over MLE to a center, if I could pay it to a similar good player at another position.

[SleepingHero]

Any of the “expendable” pieces could be dealt in the right deal. That means Okoro, the 22-year-old still-developing swingman who is beloved by teammates and members of the organization because of his ceaseless work ethic, team-first mentality and low-maintenance attitude. But the Cavs also don’t have as much time to wait for Okoro to develop. On his own, Okoro won’t bring back a significant haul. But what if he’s included in a bigger package with some future second-round picks and the appealing, team-friendly contracts of Cedi Osman and Ricky Rubio? Does that get them a wing upgrade? Does that help rebuild the erratic bench? If so, Okoro could be moved – and that wouldn’t be considered a “sweeping change,” something president of basketball operations Koby Altman said the team would avoid.

https://www.cleveland.com/cavs/2023/05/should-the-cavs-consider-signing-dillon-brooks-this-offseason-hey-chris.html

Okoro+Osman+2nds for THJ

Is that a bad trade?

[SleepingHero]

The Mavs roster-building goal, with Luka and Kyrie, needs to be to identify players who can help, who ALSO can be cap efficient. Ayton, while he does some good things, is not that guy at all.

I don't think any of those players exist currently with your added caveat of being cap efficient. 

Mavs are all in with the Kyrie trade. In fact, I'd give it 2 seasons. Maybe even 1. What other centers do you see available that satisfy both of those requirements AND can be had for the little assets the Mavs have left?

Further, how many of them are defacto better than Ayton?

Sure there are guys like Hartenstien, Gafford, Landale, heck even BBall Paul Reed. All of them I'd love to have on the Mavs. I don't think many of them are readily available though. And if the Mavs are going to overpay, I'd rather get a guy that has shown to be a proven starter on a team that went to the finals and were 2 games away from winning it all, vs. taking a swing at a boom/bust role player that we hope can be as good as Ayton while also being on a cheaper contract. 

Ayton has definite warts, but at this point the Mavs aren't in a position to be choosy with the doomsday clock they started when they made the Kyrie trade. 

Getting off of Bertans+McGee+Bullock will pay for Ayton's deal. At least 2 of those guys aren't producing much at all anyways so I view them as dead cap.

[Mapka]

I don't think any of those players exist currently with your added caveat of being cap efficient. 

Mavs are all in with the Kyrie trade. In fact, I'd give it 2 seasons. Maybe even 1. What other centers do you see available that satisfy both of those requirements AND can be had for the little assets the Mavs have left?

Further, how many of them are defacto better than Ayton?

Sure there are guys like Hartenstien, Gafford, Landale, heck even BBall Paul Reed. All of them I'd love to have on the Mavs. I don't think many of them are readily available though. And if the Mavs are going to overpay, I'd rather get a guy that has shown to be a proven starter on a team that went to the finals and were 2 games away from winning it all, vs. taking a swing at a boom/bust role player that we hope can be as good as Ayton while also being on a cheaper contract. 

Ayton has definite warts, but at this point the Mavs aren't in a position to be choosy with the doomsday clock they started when they made the Kyrie trade. 

Getting off of Bertans+McGee+Bullock will pay for Ayton's deal. At least 2 of those guys aren't producing much at all anyways so I view them as dead cap.

If the Sun just didn't want his salary, they would have let him go.

They want value and believe someone will give it to them.

[omahen]

https://www.cleveland.com/cavs/2023/05/should-the-cavs-consider-signing-dillon-brooks-this-offseason-hey-chris.html

Okoro+Osman+2nds for THJ

Is that a bad trade?

It is, for Cleveland  Unless one thinks Okoro is a bust due to his limited shooting. But in this case, I wouldn't do the trade at all, even as Dallas

[Mavs2021]

Serious Ayton talk.

The first two reasons I want him are not even skill-related. First of all, he´s age compatible, which I think is still so underrated. If you trade for a 24 year old, you don´t need to replace him in four years like a 34 year old. If you do, he still has re-trade value. Furthermore him and Luka seem to be friends, and Luka does not seem like a professional. What I mean by that is he will not separate on-court and off-court like a Pippen/Rodman situation. If he clicks with you on a personal level, he´ll click with you on a basketball court...otherwise see Porzingis and McGee. Also see the success with Slovenia, Real Madrid or when he still had Dorian, Jalen on the team....
On the other hand, he´ll make you a lot better than you are, when he´s vibing. I believe there is a different level in Ayton that Luka can draw out through his skill set and their personal relationship. Ayton has been the scapegoat in Phoenix from day one and he´d be the saviour here.

Now comes the part of what to give up. If there really is no way that Irving + X for Ayton/CP 3 works, it becomes difficult. I don´t want to give up future picks for a salary dump. This is a strategic directional choice *sarcasm mode on* big Cuban STRENGTH *sarcasm mode off*. You make a young veteran roster building choice, you eat a bad contract, i.e. CP3 to fianlize this deal. You don´t give up #10 under any circumstances.

Surely there must be a way given that Irving´s salary is flexible and we have so many contracts from 6M to 19M if ALL parties involved want it. I´m sure Phoenix would ask for Kleber and while this would hurt short-term it has to be done. Again ugh Cuban would give up #10 instead of Kleber.

I would be so excited to see

Doncic/Small Exception
Hardy/THJ
Green/Bullock
Hendricks/Morris+Bertans LOL
Ayton/Bamba ( I´m pretty sure the Lakers would do Bamba/McGee straight up)

start next year. Would be a little rough early, but I think come play-in time, nobody will want to play this team, especially if they pull off a trade deadline deal for some PG/PF depth.

One more comment on the draft. We are all pessimistic about getting certain players at #10, but to be honest I have seen very few drafts that actually have players like Hendricks or Dick higher than #10. Players like Miller or Sensabaugh are all over the place. I was going to suggest a trade down of Bertans/#10 for Curry/O´Neale/#21/#22, and hilariously the Yahoo mock draft I looked at last has the Nets picking the exact two players I´d want in that situation with Leonard Miller and Brice Sensabaugh.

[Luka77]

https://www.cleveland.com/cavs/2023/05/should-the-cavs-consider-signing-dillon-brooks-this-offseason-hey-chris.html

Okoro+Osman+2nds for THJ

Is that a bad trade?

Okoro is a worse Josh. A average at best catch and shoot player with zero dribble drive game, handles or off the bounce skills.  He is years away from being a winning player if he ever reaches one.

For as much as I dislike THJ and his serious downgrade in overall team skills ans wins.   

If the Mavs are just looking for a salary dump, as both of those contracts expire after next season, this maybe the move but it certainly doesn't help you next season in the wins column.

[Luka77]

Someone please tell me how Ayton is any different talent wise than Andre Drummond?

Ayton may be the better offensive player while Drummond is the better rebounder but they are both low motor players that offer little defensive value and dont strech the floor. The difference is Ayton is way over paid and not worth his contract.

IMO, If the Mavs are trading for an established center it needs to be a defensive anchor with the ability to stretch the floor (ie. WCJ, Turner).

My Trade offer for the Mavs, assuming PHX wants to salary dump Ayton, would be:
PHX: Bullock, McGee, Bertans
Mavs: Turner
Pacers: Ayton, Mavs '27 first, 2nd Rd PHX pick

[DanSchwartzgan]

Serious Ayton talk.

The first two reasons I want him are not even skill-related. First of all, he´s age compatible, which I think is still so underrated. If you trade for a 24 year old, you don´t need to replace him in four years like a 34 year old. If you do, he still has re-trade value.

I believe there is a different level in Ayton that Luka can draw out through his skill set and their personal relationship. Ayton has been the scapegoat in Phoenix from day one and he´d be the saviour here.

Now comes the part of what to give up. 
 
I was going to suggest a trade down of Bertans/#10 for Curry/O´Neale/#21/#22,  

I think the key to this thing is sending salary (and pick compensation) to SA.  If you look at Trade Value, 21/22 is pretty close in value to 10.  So is 16/28 with Utah.  SA can take Bertans for a pick (22 or 28) on or before draft day.  They can even take on Bertans and McGee.  But taking McGee would require more compensation.

I agree with the fresh start talk and think Ayton would likely thrive here.  We don't have to imagine Ayton as a top 10 center.  We just have to look back at prior seasons.  The question is compensation as so many have said (and I'm strictly taking about deals where Kyrie stays here).  If you swap down with Utah, keep 16 and give 28 to SA to take Bertans, then either Maxi or Reggie to Phoenix gets it done from a salary matching standpoint and saves Phoenix a ton or money.  It seems highly unlikely we'd get Ayton for Bertans, Maxi (or Reggie) and a six pick trade down.  Would #16 do it?  Green or Hardy?  Would the 2027 pick do it?

I think 2027 would be the more prized asset around the league.  I also think the team would be more willing to give that up and add 16 to the Hardy/Green youth currently on the team.  Yeah, it is mortgaging the future a bit, but if you presume we have Kyrie, the window is now.  The trade down and 2027 (plus Bertans and one other player from among Maxi and Reggie) starts to feel like fair compensation.  I do think we would have competition here from Indy and Charlotte, so value isn't derived in a vacuum.  It is also a product of beating competing offers.

[DanSchwartzgan]

If you swap down with Utah, keep 16 and give 28 to SA to take Bertans, then either Maxi or Reggie to Phoenix gets it done from a salary matching standpoint and saves Phoenix a ton or money.   

BTW, this swap down and dump Bertans idea (16/28 or 21/22) works for some of the other names we've been talking about.  

Swap 10 with Brooklyn for 21/22.  Send 22/Bertans and McGee to SA.  Bring Capela in and create a TPE for Atlanta.  We'd still owe Atlanta compensation.

Trade 10 to Brooklyn for 22/Claxton/Mills.  Send 22 and Bertans to SA for 44.

[ItsGoTime]

I was doing a bit of fantasy trading with getting the #1 pick and Patty Mills name came up. As I contemplated he might be a decent 3rd PG for the mix. Haven’t watched him much lately, is he still a scrappy defender and at least competent running things for short periods?

[Chicagojk]

I think it is important to consider PHX current spot on these trades (most have). PHX is probably in a 3-4 year window (If KD can stay healthy and at his current level of play) and they are void with assets making internal improvement very difficult. They also have a new owner who I am sure had grand plans. So any move to trade Ayton needs to be a clear upgrade to them. This will be difficult if Ayton does not play better, but I don't think new owner will be breaking out his spreadsheet with the goal of getting Howard Eisley.

[ItsGoTime]

I think it is important to consider PHX current spot on these trades (most have).  PHX is probably in a 3-4 year window (If KD can stay healthy and at his current level of play) and they are void with assets making internal improvement very difficult.  They also have a new owner who I am sure had grand plans.  So any move to trade Ayton needs to be a clear upgrade to them.  This will be difficult if Ayton does not play better, but I don't think new owner will be breaking out his spreadsheet with the goal of getting Howard Eisley.

Can’t like, so have to go with the old school route. 

Agreed.