Trade & FA 2023-24: Sexton On the Market? | ORL Likes Hartenstein?

[Smitty]

To be perfectly honest, I didn't read that post as a bash on "Timmy lovers" (a term that could apply to me as well).  I took it to mean why would we need to send anyone out in addition to Timmy.  Smitty has no history with getting ugly in here.

I didn’t even realize that “bashing Timmy lovers” could have been the takeaway from that. It certainly explains why things seemed to get personal from that perspective.

You’re absolutely right about my point. That I don’t see it as “likely” that someone this board likes will be gone. I see it as likely that Tim Hardaway Jr is gone. Anything else is possible of course, but far from likely imo.

This was what I responded to after all. “ But yes, SOMEONE this board likes is probably not going to be here next year, it’s pretty easy to see that coming.”

[KillerLeft]

Isn't the discussion about the viability of obtaining a 6th man type (presumably in the mold of JET) to bring offense off the bench, and how to do that? It seems obvious that THJ is already on the table - he should already have his bags packed, frankly - so it seems to me this is another motivation to have him gone. And Hardy gives them everything THJ does, at a fraction of the price, if you need depth. Not sure what you see in THJ at this point, but it doesn't feel very realistic.

Did you read the 27,000 posts I’ve written in the last month that started with THJ is gone? That’s the most obvious thing in the world at this point. I think the only person suggesting anything otherwise is Dan, and that’s just because he wants to use his contract to the upmost value.

I don’t care a bit about his contract, or its value, I just don’t want to lose Jones!

The rest of this point, about Hardy, is literally what I just wrote about him in this very thread, and why I do not think they will be looking for a 6th man.

You are replying to me with my own arguments. No disrespect, but is it possible that you are skimming, and not reading very carefully? Because nothing in this post contradicts anything that I have said over the last hour. I agree completely. Your argument is not with me, good sir.

[KillerLeft]

I don’t see it as “likely” that someone this board likes will be gone.

That’s cool. I do see that as likely…IF (IF!) The team wants to improve in another area, not ONLY re-sign DJJ.

EVEN IN THE POST THAT STARTED THIS, I MENTIONED THAT HARDY and O-Max Making the rotation might be all of the improvement needed, but I think I ended with “who knows what they are thinking?”

If they want to add another piece, I don’t see how they do it without moving someone like Green. To me, that is very logical. It’s also logical to add Gafford and Kleber to that list, because they are less essential than the other guys who make big money. Green would be my choice, I’m sure other people value Green more than one or both of those guys, I’m sure most people would prefer not to trade any of them, but none of that is the point.

[F Gump]

I think the key is finding a THJ-for-nothing move, as your foundation. Because, if you do nothing else, that all by itself solves the DJJ issue, and it also opens up enough room to spend a BAE slot, and also yields a TPE of 16.2M. Can't do all that, but you'd have tools.

I'm confident that the THJ-for-nothing can be done at some price, but the obvious issue is how much that price will be. And then, are there ways to do that in combo with something else that might be less expensive, and perhaps yield more value? But imo it all starts with determining that price.

[Smitty]

That’s cool. I do see that as likely…IF (IF!) The team wants to improve in another area, not ONLY re-sign DJJ.

EVEN IN THE POST THAT STARTED THIS, I MENTIONED THAT HARDY and O-Max Making the rotation might be all of the improvement needed, but I think I ended with “who knows what they are thinking?”

If they want to add another piece, I don’t see how they do it without dumping someone like Green. To me, that is very logical. It’s also logical to add Gafford and Kleber to that list, because they are less essential than the other guys who make big money. Green would be my choice, I’m sure other people value Green more than one or both of those guys, I’m sure most people would prefer not to trade any of them, but none of that is the point.

Again, I responded to this part of your assumption “But yes, SOMEONE this board likes is probably not going to be here next year, it’s pretty easy to see that coming.”

I felt like I made a good argument on why I disagree but maybe we were talking past each other.

I do agree with you that if they want to do more to improve the team than just resign DJJ and run it back, then of course it’s likely that the list you made of Gafford, Kleber, Green would be included in any improvement the team tried to make via trade. They have the salary to bring back someone that would be viewed in such way. Although, I don’t think that’s the way the Mavs will go.

I agree with all of your points on Hardy and especially Omax and hope/think they will have important roles on the team next year.

[KillerLeft]

I think the key is finding a THJ-for-nothing move, as your foundation. Because, if you do nothing else, that all by itself solves the DJJ issue, and it also opens up enough room to spend a BAE slot, and also yields a TPE of 16.2M. Can't do all that, but you'd have tools.

I'm confident that the THJ-for-nothing can be done at some price, but the obvious issue is how much that price will be. And then, are there ways to do that in combo with something else that might be less expensive, and perhaps yield more value? But imo it all starts with determining that price.

I am in total lockstep with this, and to be fully transparent, I had forgotten about the BAE altogether.

However, at the risk of pissing everyone off even more, while I am not looking to get rid of Josh Green, I would rather have DFS than him. Just saying.

But yeah, if they can dump Hardaway cheaply enough to use that as a vehicle to retain Jones and then add another long wing with the BAE I honestly don’t know what more they would need to do.

I’m pretty sure 100% of us would opt to go that way.

[F Gump]

Not talking Gafford down, not even once, regardless of how many times you accuse me of it. There are things he can do and things he can’t, and I have pointed them out correctly. He wouldn’t be my first choice to trade, either. I put him on the list because he is not one of their top guys, and he makes real money. That was what I took to be the point of your earlier post, the intersection of those criteria. Gafford is the sixth most important Mav, at best. Good player! Not as important as Jones, in my opinion.

I also would not trade Kleber, and there are years and years and years of me defending HIM against all of the knuckleheads in here, too. I included him on the list because, again, he represents the intersection of middle of the totem pole and high dollar amount. On my personal list, he would be above Gafford.

If someone besides THJ has to go in order to get all accomplished this summer, my strong belief is that it will be Josh Green.

When you include Gafford and Kleber as ones you think are options to trade this summer, in multiple posts, and then come back to that again AFTER you acknowledge their importance, I don't see that as an indicator that you feel they are vital to keep. You can't have it both ways.

I do agree that Green makes sense in a lot of ways (but not in some others), and I would add Hardy to that list. Maybe Exum. But definitely not DG or MK.

[F Gump]

I am in total lockstep with this, and to be fully transparent, I had forgotten about the BAE altogether.

However, at the risk of pissing everyone off even more, while I am not looking to get rid of Josh Green, I would rather have DFS than him. Just saying.

But yeah, if they can dump Hardaway cheaply enough to use that as a vehicle to retain Jones and then add another long wing with the BAE I honestly don’t know what more they would need to do.

I’m pretty sure 100% of us would opt to go that way.

That makes sense. I don't know which I would prefer. I don't think there would be room for both, re both minutes and payroll.

[KillerLeft]

Again, I responded to this part of your assumption “But yes, SOMEONE this board likes is probably not going to be here next year, it’s pretty easy to see that coming.”

I felt like I made a good argument on why I disagree but maybe we were talking past each other.

I do agree with you that if they want to do more to improve the team than just resign DJJ and run it back, then of course it’s likely that the list you made of Gafford, Kleber, Green would be included in any improvement the team tried to make. They have the salary to bring back someone that would be viewed in such way.

Maybe I worded the first quote too strongly, and it was a little misleading, but it was all based on the last paragraph. 

Personally, ever since Dan made his whole post like a week ago about “improving, not just running it back” I have been wondering what is in store for this off-season. We are all focused on DJJ, And while I believe that Dan was trying to subtly send the message that he might be inclined to let the dude walk, were he in charge (depending on how high the price gets), my take is that they might need to re-sign him AND add something else.

If I boil down my position, it is this:

1) I flatly do not think Hardaway is welcome on this team anymore, for whatever reason. Nor do I expect that he wants to come back, given that there does not seem to be playing time for him. Hardaway will not be a Maverick at the end of the summer. Even if they didn’t need to find money for Jones, and regardless of when is the optimal time to get max value for his contract, Hardaway is GONE. It’s pretty tough to get more obvious than that. We are almost to the territory of Christian Wood at this time last year.

2) after waiting for the other shoe to drop on DJJ all season, I have become a believer. I am completely sold on him as an integral, indispensable part of this team. I have zero issues with giving him a multi year deal at the MLE, and I have almost no qualms with the Mavericks having to do whatever they have to do to make that happen.

3) While I assume, like everyone else, that points number one and two synergize nicely, I have also considered the idea that there might be some unforeseen reason Hardaway CAN’T be moved to create enough money for DJJ. More on that in a sec.

4) In the event of point 3, It isn’t even a hesitation for me. If push comes to shove, I move Green or Gafford in favor of DJJ without even the hint of a second thought. I am not suggesting that this will likely be the case, nor do I hope it’s the case, I am simply saying that for me, Jones is at the top of that list in terms of importance. People are free to disagree here.

5) To add nuance to point number 3, if dumping Hardaway for air requires two first round picks, just as an example, I honestly believe that in that case, it might be the better choice to dump Green. I’m not saying that it’s the better choice in a vacuum, I’m just saying that there are details that could possibly push me in that direction, especially knowing that Hardaway is going into the last year of his contract. Like Gump above, I don’t expect it to be that hard to find a home for Hardaway, but we won’t know until it’s done.

6) If the Mavericks want to re-sign DJJ AND add another player capable of big playoff rotation minutes, which seems to me to be a worthwhile dream at this point, either green, Gafford, or Kleber would need to be involved (unless they hit a triple with the BAE, to Gump’s point). I have no trouble imagining that a player better than any of them might want to come here, and I feel like all three of them have at least a little bit of trade value. All I am saying is that I am open to talking about it. This next part is subjective opinion, I suppose, but if I were to rank those three in order of importance to the team, I believe I would go Kleber, Gafford and Green bringing up the rear. I have a sneaky suspicion that the team is kind of down on Green. He had kind of a weird season, in my opinion. That is not the same thing as saying I want him gone or I think he’s trash.

[fifteenth]

I read all of today's posts in this "keep DJJ" discussion, but all I can really remember at this point is that....

DFS IS COMING HOME!!!!

[KillerLeft]

I read all of today's posts in this "keep DJJ" discussion, but all I can really remember at this point is that....

DFS IS COMING HOME!!!!

I wish.

[F Gump]

I don't think this has been mentioned, but I believe when we talk about what the Mavs might consider, we have to figure out what Kidd's "preferred team" would look like. What's he trying to build?

My answer - look at the 2010-11 Mavs, and see how he is mirroring that. And how they built that.

OFFENSIVE ENGINE - 2 primary scorers to complement each other (Dirk, JET)
STRONG INTERIOR - 2 starting-caliber bigs (TC, Haywood)
LOCKDOWN DEFENDERS WHO CAN SCORE A BIT - (Kidd, Marion, DSteve)
SOME ADDED OFFENSE - an energy creator of offense (JJB), and a knockdown shooter (Peja)

The current version
OFFENSIVE ENGINE - 2 primary scorers to complement each other (Luka, Ky)
STRONG INTERIOR - 2 starting-caliber bigs (Gafford, Lively)
LOCKDOWN DEFENDERS WHO CAN SCORE A BIT - (PJW, DJJ, Green, Maxi)
SOME ADDED OFFENSE - an energy creator of offense (Hardy)

[Smitty]

I think the key is finding a THJ-for-nothing move, as your foundation. Because, if you do nothing else, that all by itself solves the DJJ issue, and it also opens up enough room to spend a BAE slot, and also yields a TPE of 16.2M. Can't do all that, but you'd have tools.

I'm confident that the THJ-for-nothing can be done at some price, but the obvious issue is how much that price will be. And then, are there ways to do that in combo with something else that might be less expensive, and perhaps yield more value? But imo it all starts with determining that price.

I agree. I think most of us all think THJ will be gone this summer. If that’s a matter of fact, not opinion. Then the cost is the cost.

What that cost will be hasn’t been talked about much on here.

Is it a SRP?
SRP + player (Hardy?)
Multiple SRP’s?
A FRP?
A FRP + SRP(s)?
Multiple FRP’s?

[KillerLeft]

I agree. I think most of us all think THJ will be gone this summer. If that’s a matter of fact, not opinion. Then the cost is the cost.

What that cost will be hasn’t been talked about much on here.

Is it a SRP?
SRP + player (Hardy?)
Multiple SRP’s?
A FRP?
A FRP + SRP(s)?
Multiple FRP’s?

See, this is where it gets less black and white for me. Some of those options aren’t worth it, in my opinion. Not because I don’t want to see Hardaway go - I’ll keep on defending him, but I am fine with him leaving. But, I don’t want to pay a fortune to move HIM, specifically, when there are other players i’d also be in favor of moving (reluctantly) in order to keep DJJ. 

I would rather have Green/DJJ than DJJ/Hardaway, but not if it requires throwing two (more) 1st round picks in the trash. Even one first round pick makes me want to hit pause and think for a second, because there really is a reasonable chance that Hardaway’s value could increase at the deadline, even if he’s not in the rotation, simply because he’s expiring. Incidentally, that’s kind of why I don’t expect it to cost so much to move him over the summer, but it’s a reasonable question you posed. What if it costs two firsts to dump THJ? Two firsts to bring back the exact, same team? That really seems like a good idea to everyone?

Add it all together, and the only (near) absolute truth for me is that I’d do basically anything it took to keep DJJ. It’s just that the value equation of some of these choices might be different for me than it is for some others.

[Smitty]

See, this is where it gets less black and white for me. Some of those options aren’t worth it, in my opinion. Not because I don’t want to see Hardaway go - I’ll keep on defending him, but I am fine with him leaving. But, I don’t want to pay a fortune to move HIM, specifically, when there are other players i’d also be in favor of moving (reluctantly) in order to keep DJJ. 

I would rather have Green/DJJ than DJJ/Hardaway, but not if it requires throwing two (more) 1st round picks in the trash. Even one first round pick makes me want to hit pause and think for a second, because there really is a reasonable chance that Hardaway’s value could increase at the deadline, even if he’s not in the rotation, simply because he’s expiring. Incidentally, that’s kind of why I don’t expect it to cost so much to move him over the summer, but it’s a reasonable question you posed. What if it costs two firsts to dump THJ? Two first to bring back the exact, same team? That really seems like a good idea to everyone?

Add it all together, and the only (near) absolute truth for me is that I’d do basically anything it took to keep DJJ. It’s just that the value equation of some of these choices might be different for me than it is for some others.

I certainly don’t think it will be multiple FRP’s. I was just listing them all. The bottom 3 would be hard to stomach for me. But the point I was ultimately making is that IF Tim is gone, like we all assume, THEN it will cost one of those listed prices.

[KillerLeft]

I certainly don’t think it will be multiple FRP’s. I was just listing them all. The bottom 3 would be hard to stomach for me. But the point I was ultimately making is that IF Tim is gone, like we all assume, THEN it will cost one of those listed prices.

I’m not sure I totally agree with that. It’s possible that you are right on the money with the range of possibilities, but, call me crazy, I still think Hardaway has something to offer to right team, and I think he demonstrated that for more than half of this season. Mix in the fact that his contract is expiring at a very useful number, and I actually hold out some hope that someone will just want him.

Now, the really tricky thing is obviously that the Mavericks are in a position where they can’t take back salary in exchange, at least if they want to keep all of the other players we have talked about today. So, that does probably swing the likelihood back to your premise that they will have to pay someone to take him, because that’s a service someone is providing the Mavericks. But again, for me, that brings the question of “who else can be moved” into play. 

I’m going to think it is very bad business if the Mavericks pay more than a second round pick or two, maximum, for someone to absorb Hardaway into space. Since I have no idea what the new reality of the punitive Penalties is going to do to the marketplace, I don’t feel confident that I know what it will cost, but I know that I wouldn’t be in favor of paying a first round pick. Call me a hater if you guys want, but if that is the reality the team faces this summer, I am kicking the tires on moving multiple players instead.That’s kind of where my “easy to see coming” line of thought came from earlier.

I think it is factual and a given that Hardaway is far and away the preferred method of obtaining salary for Jones, for both the team and the fan base. I am reasonably confident that this endeavor will be successful, but I don’t think we have enough information to assume that it will. I’m just saying that I feel like it’s very possible that some of these decisions might be harder than we think sitting here today. If they are, I know where DJJ sits on my priority list, because I’ve FORCED myself to consider all avenues.

For example, if it’s too expensive to dump Hardaway for nothing, but relatively cheap to dump green for nothing, Jones is a sufficient carrot to convince me to go that way. Then, maybe you can use Hardaway plus a small sweetener to get a useful player who fits here better, but is owed long term salary. That’s a scenario I can actually see playing out.

[Smitty]

I’m not sure I totally agree with that. It’s possible that you are right on the money with the range of possibilities, but, call me crazy, but I still think Hardaway has something to offer to the Wright team, and I think he demonstrated that for more than half of this season. Mix in the fact that his contract is expiring at a very useful number, and I actually hold out some hope that someone will just want him.

Now, the really tricky thing is obviously that the Mavericks are in a position where they can’t really take back salary in exchange, at least if they want to keep all of the other players we have talked about today. So, that does probably swing the likelihood back to your premise that they will have to pay someone to take him, but again, For me, that brings up the question of “who else can be moved” into play. 

I’m going to think it is very bad business if the Mavericks pay more than a second round pick or two, maximum, for someone to absorb Hardaway into space. Since I have no idea what the new reality of the punitive Penalties is going to do to the marketplace, I don’t feel confident that I know what it will cost, but I know that I wouldn’t be in favor of paying a first round pick. Call me a hater if you guys want, but if that is the reality, the team faces this summer, I am kicking the tires on moving multiple players.

Just to clarify, I wasn’t getting into what I think is good/bad value. Just that pretty much everyone at one point has posted that Tim will not be here. I think you went as far to say it’s a C. Wood situation. So, I’m just laying out what all those options are in the world that Tim is not here this summer.

To make my position clear. 

I don’t think Tim will be on the Mavs roster to start the 24-25 season.
*Previous post shows what that could/would/will cost the Mavs to move his salary.
I don’t think there’s any way they get away with moving him for free or some neutral value.
I don’t think I could stomach anything more than a FRP but I’m not really arguing what I would or wouldn’t do, but rather, one of those options is what it will be.

If you were to nail me down on what I think it WILL cost I would say the early SRP from Toronto next year. Possibly an additional SRP. I can see it costing as much as the FRP next year but hopefully those two are about 5-10 picks from each other.

[KillerLeft]

Just to clarify, I wasn’t getting into what I think is good/bad value. Just that pretty much everyone at one point has posted that Tim will not be here. I think you went as far to say it’s a C. Wood situation. So, I’m just laying out what all those options are in the world that Tim is not here this summer.

To make my position clear. 

I don’t think Tim will be on the Mavs roster to start the 24-25 season.
*Previous post shows what that could/would/will cost the Mavs to move his salary.
I don’t think there’s any way they get away with moving him for free or some neutral value.
I don’t think I could stomach anything more than a FRP but I’m not really arguing what I would or wouldn’t do, rather than one of those options is what it will be.

Yeah, I get all that. It’s a tall order to turn salary into no salary. That’s the part that people assume will be easy, and it never is, even in the best of times. Teams with cap space sell it at a premium.

I’m just trying to play it out to its eventual end, to the best of my ability. My bottom line is that The list of players who are less important to me than DJJ does not ONLY include Hardaway, so there are things that I am hoping happen, but there are also things that I am willing to allow to happen if I must. I’m sure you are the same way, So let me ask you: hypothetically, would you pay two first round picks to dump hardaway for air? 

Three choices, sort of a marry, f**k, kill scenario:

1) dump Hardaway using AT LEAST a first round pick

2) dump Green (or insert Gafford or Kleber, if you’d rather) for air, but it takes maybe one 2nd, because the space team wants him.

3) let DJJ sign with some other team

What do you do?

This is what I have been talking about this whole time.

[Smitty]

Yeah, I get all that. It’s a tall order to turn salary into no salary. That’s the part that people assume will be easy, and it never is, even in the best of times. Teams with cap space sell it at a premium.

I’m just trying to play it out to its eventual end, to the best of my ability. My bottom line is that The list of players who are less important to me than DJJ does not ONLY include Hardaway, so there are things that I am hoping happen, but there are also things that I am willing to allow to happen if I must. I’m sure you are the same way, So let me ask you: hypothetically, would you pay two first round picks to dump hardaway for air? 

Three choices, sort of a marry, f**k, kill scenario:

1) dump Hardaway using AT LEAST a first round pick

2) dump Green (or insert Gafford or Kleber, if you’d rather) for air, but it takes maybe one 2nd, because the space team wants him.

3) let DJJ sign with some other team

What do you do?

This is what I have been talking about this whole time.

#1 is a very easy decision. I edited my post and said what I think it will actually cost to move his salary and I said Toronto’s SRP next year (mid 30’s?) or at most the Mavs FRP (high 20’s?)

[DanSchwartzgan]

I agree. I think most of us all think THJ will be gone this summer. If that’s a matter of fact, not opinion. Then the cost is the cost.

What that cost will be hasn’t been talked about much on here.

Is it a SRP?
SRP + player (Hardy?)
Multiple SRP’s?
A FRP?
A FRP + SRP(s)?
Multiple FRP’s?

I think the range of your list makes sense.  Obviously the question of what it takes has to account for whether this is a complete absorption of salary or a partial absorption (with a cap room team) or a trade match.  Whether we are getting anything back in terms of draft equity also matters.  I still take the position that teams with championship aspirations (especially if we aren't successful in the next couple of weeks) don't just give away assets to stand still.  There is a world where the price to dump THJ is so high that you'd be better off putting the capital with an expiring player and trading for value rather than space.

FWIW, Dan Fravale on the Hardwood Knocks podcast mentioned Dallas "just sending two seconds to Detroit to get them to take THJ".  It wasn't a prediction or even well thought out.  It was more of a throwaway line as they were discussing what Dallas might do to keep DJJ.  The problem is Detroit might be done bottom dwelling.  There are rumors of guys they want to sign in free agency and rumors of trades they want to make for big dollar vets.  So, it isn't a certainty they will be in the business of absorbing contracts this summer.

One hope might be that the new GM decides to kick the can for a season to evaluate things.  I'm not sure 2 seconds is the highest and best use for cap room even if you are kicking the can.  But, expiring contracts will likely be valuable come February.  If they can rehab THJ and turn him into something for a team trying to manage cap space (or apron issue) for 25/26, then who knows.

On another podcast they were discussing Brooklyn's likely path.  One commentator thought they might be a candidate for a trade that preserves/creates cap room in 2025.  This might be the place DFS comes into play.  I'm not sure he makes sense on a team that already has PJ, Maxi and OMax at Dorian's best position.  Maybe he goes to a third team and Brooklyn gets THJ and a little something from both teams in terms of draft capital.  This kind of financial engineering (with an eye toward 2025) is another path to possible THJ trades besides the obvious cap room and TPE teams.  He's an NBA player who can be sold to a fan base (as often happens) despite the fact his best value is his expiring contract.