Trade & FA 2023-24: Sexton On the Market? | ORL Likes Hartenstein?

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

I hope Exum can recover, but I would not bet next season on him. He came back from injury on February 28th...

I think first priority is to resign DJJ, than build from there, depending how much will it take to resign him and what assets and salary will be left.

Agreed. I think it all depends on how much he values winning as opposed to getting the bag for essentially the first time in his career.  Other contending teams will throw him a bigger number than Dallas might not be willing to pay. What to do with THJ will figure in the decision also.  I would not expect a home team discount, but an amicable deal that works for both sides if he decides to stay.

[SleepingHero]

Agreed. I think it all depends on how much he values winning as opposed to getting the bag for essentially the first time in his career.  Other contending teams will throw him a bigger number than Dallas might not be willing to pay. What to do with THJ will figure in the decision also.  I would not expect a home team discount, but an amicable deal that works for both sides if he decides to stay.

What contending teams have the money and role?

BOS, DEN, LAL, MEM, MIA, MIL, MIN, PHX all cannot offer MLE. 

DAL and NOP need to move pieces to get to MLE money.

The only 2 contending teams with space are OKC and PHI. OKC doesn't need DJJ at all. PHI could use him, but their sights are set on star players like PG, Butler, and even OG.


Other teams with cap space: DET, ORL, UTA, SAS, CHA, and HOU.

Of those I can see HOU wanting DJJ. But are they willing to give him more than MLE money? I doubt it. I also think DJJ realizes his fit next to Luka and Kyrie are the best for him long term. Who knows? I think the Mavs will have to move THJ to get to MLE money and there is no shot DJJ will accept the Tax-MLE. But I think the Mavs don't mind that at all.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

What contending teams have the money and role?

BOS, DEN, LAL, MEM, MIA, MIL, MIN, PHX all cannot offer MLE. 

DAL and NOP need to move pieces to get to MLE money.

The only 2 contending teams with space are OKC and PHI. OKC doesn't need DJJ at all. PHI could use him, but their sights are set on star players like PG, Butler, and even OG.


Other teams with cap space: DET, ORL, UTA, SAS, CHA, and HOU.

Of those I can see HOU wanting DJJ. But are they willing to give him more than MLE money? I doubt it. I also think DJJ realizes his fit next to Luka and Kyrie are the best for him long term. Who knows? I think the Mavs will have to move THJ to get to MLE money and there is no shot DJJ will accept the Tax-MLE. But I think the Mavs don't mind that at all.

Good points. But as I said before, it depends on how much he values winning. Money changes things.

[Mavs2021]

Evan Sidery (@esidery)
The Kings intend to shop the No. 13 overall pick along with future draft capital to aggressively hunt a win-now piece.

Harrison Barnes and Kevin Huerter are two players who will likely be dangled in trade talks over the next month.

Sacramento wants to seriously compete within the midst of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis’ prime years.

So who is telling the Kings that it just ain´t happening? It´s not even disrespect to the work they have done. The West is just insane. I think you can make a legit argument that 13 teams in the West could complete for a top 6 spot in the East. If Orlando offer Monk a huge deal, as is rumoured, the Kings are in a very tough spot. But we take #13, Vzenkov and Duarte for THJ to cushion the blow of losing Monk.

[Luka77]

Evan Sidery (@esidery)
The Kings intend to shop the No. 13 overall pick along with future draft capital to aggressively hunt a win-now piece.

Harrison Barnes and Kevin Huerter are two players who will likely be dangled in trade talks over the next month.

Sacramento wants to seriously compete within the midst of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis’ prime years.

Sounds like they should just trade for Lavine.

[Luka77]

I hate the almost complete lack of shooting outside your primary initiators/scorers. I get that it's working to an extent right now because of the insane gravity of Luka and Kyrie giving guys absolute wide open looks, but long term it's simply not ideal to have your primary initiators surrounded predominantly by guys who cannot even shoot league avg from 3.

We need another actual 3 and D guy (who actually does both the 3 and the D) as our next primary target IMO, ideally someone good enough to relegate PJ or DJJ to the bench to increase our depth if at all possible. Some of these other young teams in the west that already have insane talent and depth and also have tradeable assets coming out the wazoo scare me a bit moving forward. Having a player like Luka can elevate guys in ways 99% of other teams can't, but I'd rather look to resolve that issue sooner than later. We have a chance in the Finals because we have Luka, but looking at how much better Boston's role players are than ours is kind of eye opening. I could see some of these other teams in the west developing similar insane depth of talent quite soon.

I agree that finding a 3 and D guy that is equally good on offense and defense is ideal.  The problem is these types aren't available nor do the Mavs have the assets to trade for them.  I would love for the Mavs to find their version of Derrick White (which would probably have to a SF/PF to be a starter, which requires even more assets to acquire).  He was undervalued at the time Boston traded a first for him but I don't know who that person is and the Mavs likely don't have the assets to acquire that person.

The only player that I can think of that would remotely fit that mold is Tari Eason (Avdija is another one).  And I don't think the rockets are ready to offer him in trade for what assets the Mavs currently have.  Moreover, I hope Omax can become that guy, (also PJW is young enough to become a better shooter).

All of the players the Mavs can acquire will have some drawbacks or warts.  They won't find the player they need with the trade assets they have.

[Chicagojk]

So who is telling the Kings that it just ain´t happening? It´s not even disrespect to the work they have done. The West is just insane. I think you can make a legit argument that 13 teams in the West could complete for a top 6 spot in the East. If Orlando offer Monk a huge deal, as is rumoured, the Kings are in a very tough spot. But we take #13, Vzenkov and Duarte for THJ to cushion the blow of losing Monk.

The kings have a good team.  They play a fun style of basketball.   I agree though, they appear to be a first round exit team at their best.   

One of the things we discussed at the trade deadline is making a move then as opposed to this summer.  It appears there are a lot of teams who are going to be aggressive and this may raise the prices.  The Mavs may have played a role in this as well.  Now every team thinks they are magically one piece away from breaking thru (hint, hint...You need that top 5 player first).   It seems like now you have the good but not great teams, who may do a panic trade.    The pick hoarding/cap space teams who may be strategic on a big move.   You will also have the desperate teams.   So it could be very well the Mavs could have seen a really crowded market for the players this summer if they decided to wait until this summer.

[SleepingHero]

Evan Sidery (@esidery)
The Pelicans are expected to have trade talks with the Hawks this offseason about acquiring Trae Young or Dejounte Murray, per @cclark_13 (https://www.nola.com/sports/pelicans/why...8b915.html).

Brandon Ingram would be the likely piece New Orleans sends back to Atlanta for either guard.

With Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland also of interest, New Orleans appears ready to finally push their chips all-in around Zion Williamson.

[Chicagojk]

I see zero reason for DJJ or PJ to be moved to the bench next year. Both have been great this season and in the playoffs. Both players have shot higher 3 point percentages in the playoffs than in the regular season. Both players increased their ppg in the playoffs also. That's exactly what you want from your role players is to elevate their games when it matters the most. Hardy and Maxi  have also raised their 3 point %. The only need for this team is the right type of role players to add to the team or possibly a 6th man if we don't think Hardy is ready for that role. I personally think Hardy is ready for that role. It's more about retaining all our top talent and improving if there is a chance.

I think Jones would look somewhere else if he isn't guaranteed a starting spot.  I think he has earned it.  

We will see how the finals go.   I think unless a move that we can't turn down presents itself, we will see mostly the same team next year (hopefully with DJJ).   Count on continuing cohesion and internal development.  Maybe Hardy jumps into the regular rotation as a 22 year old and at some point we start seeing Omax later next season.   

Looking at other teams, I feel like the older teams that are capped out with limited draft picks are like drug addicts trying to find that magical final piece.    The Mavs very well may be better just keeping their 25 and 26 first round picks and trying to add and develop youth.   In the new CBA, it seems like teams get in trouble when they lack that cheap labor with upside.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Sounds like they should just trade for Lavine.

Lavine's stock has dropped like a rock. He makes too much, and he's been injured the last few seasons. I suppose a team will take a chance on him, but I wonder who?

[Luka77]

Lavine's stock has dropped like a rock. He makes too much, and he's been injured the last few seasons. I suppose a team will take a chance on him, but I wonder who?

Agree, but for someone like the Kings, I think it would make sense if they don't have to give up someone from their core.  Giving up Harrison, Huerter and some other salary isn't much.

[DallasMaverick]

The kings have a good team.  They play a fun style of basketball.   I agree though, they appear to be a first round exit team at their best.   

One of the things we discussed at the trade deadline is making a move then as opposed to this summer.  It appears there are a lot of teams who are going to be aggressive and this may raise the prices.  The Mavs may have played a role in this as well.  Now every team thinks they are magically one piece away from breaking thru (hint, hint...You need that top 5 player first).   It seems like now you have the good but not great teams, who may do a panic trade.    The pick hoarding/cap space teams who may be strategic on a big move.   You will also have the desperate teams.   So it could be very well the Mavs could have seen a really crowded market for the players this summer if they decided to wait until this summer.

Overpays by other teams only help Dallas. We should hope for more Levine-type contracts!

I’m wondering what the value of Sac’s #13 pick really is. One of the weakest drafts in recent years. Seems like a great year for the Mavs to mostly stand pat.

[Branduil]

I think Jones would look somewhere else if he isn't guaranteed a starting spot.  I think he has earned it.  

We will see how the finals go.   I think unless a move that we can't turn down presents itself, we will see mostly the same team next year (hopefully with DJJ).   Count on continuing cohesion and internal development.  Maybe Hardy jumps into the regular rotation as a 22 year old and at some point we start seeing Omax later next season.   

Looking at other teams, I feel like the older teams that are capped out with limited draft picks are like drug addicts trying to find that magical final piece.    The Mavs very well may be better just keeping their 25 and 26 first round picks and trying to add and develop youth.   In the new CBA, it seems like teams get in trouble when they lack that cheap labor with upside.

Unless DJJ has a Bruce Brown-esque Finals run (and that would be a great problem to have), I don't think anyone will consider offering him a lot more than the non-tax MLE. Mavs just need to find a way to free up that MLE.

[Jason Terry]

The kings have a good team.  They play a fun style of basketball.   I agree though, they appear to be a first round exit team at their best.   

One of the things we discussed at the trade deadline is making a move then as opposed to this summer.  It appears there are a lot of teams who are going to be aggressive and this may raise the prices.  The Mavs may have played a role in this as well.  Now every team thinks they are magically one piece away from breaking thru (hint, hint...You need that top 5 player first).   It seems like now you have the good but not great teams, who may do a panic trade.    The pick hoarding/cap space teams who may be strategic on a big move.   You will also have the desperate teams.   So it could be very well the Mavs could have seen a really crowded market for the players this summer if they decided to wait until this summer.

Your point you make IMO is the story of the offseason and the best thing that could happen for the Mavs……jack those prices up and let’s hope for as many dumb decisions as possible. 

Going team by team in the West there’s only the Jazz and Blazers that are clear tanking teams. There’s no good argument for any of the other 13 teams to tank

Not only are so many average teams fully mortgaged, there’s a wide range of teams that are under significant pressure to make a big move. 

It’s basically the same few teams as sellers this summer as it was at the TDL. We already cherry picked 2 guys from Wizards and Hornets. Teams that have that type of player to sell may want more because they’re afraid they’re selling low on the next PJ. Teams that want that player could be more willing to pay more if they convince themselves that player is the next PJ. 

Overall, I’m watching OKC and San Antonio closely. Those are the biggest threat to us long term. They have the ammo to cause us problems going forward. Hopefully they make some mistakes

[F Gump]

Overall, I’m watching OKC and San Antonio closely. Those are the biggest threat to us long term. 

When you have enough talent to win a title (and the Mavs do), it's not about what other teams do. Instead it's about maximizing your own roster. Add talent that improves the team where you can. Keep your key contributors.

If you do, the results will take care of themselves.

And the Mavs really do have a giant unmatchable head start on the rest of the league, when it comes to building a winning roster. The Mavs have Luka, and there's only one of him. He's only 25.

[Mavs2021]

The kings have a good team.  They play a fun style of basketball.   I agree though, they appear to be a first round exit team at their best.   

One of the things we discussed at the trade deadline is making a move then as opposed to this summer.  It appears there are a lot of teams who are going to be aggressive and this may raise the prices.  The Mavs may have played a role in this as well.  Now every team thinks they are magically one piece away from breaking thru (hint, hint...You need that top 5 player first).   It seems like now you have the good but not great teams, who may do a panic trade.    The pick hoarding/cap space teams who may be strategic on a big move.   You will also have the desperate teams.   So it could be very well the Mavs could have seen a really crowded market for the players this summer if they decided to wait until this summer.

Arguably not just top 5, but the best. People do not seem to understand what a bum Gm´d franchise this has been for the last 13 years from quitting on a championship roster to letting Brunson go, because you failed to realize how good he is. The reason we are a contender now is that we finally surrounded Luka with an actual semi-competent NBA roster.

[Mavs2021]

Lavine's stock has dropped like a rock. He makes too much, and he's been injured the last few seasons. I suppose a team will take a chance on him, but I wonder who?

Lavine, the player, is exactly the type we need. Everybody says kid has an insane work ethic and he has come back from multiple ACL injuries very quickly, BUT that´s just it: his knees. I would not be worried about the contract itself, if we found a way to match it, which we likely cannot. It´s the knees. It´s just as much a gamble to bet on his knees as it was to bet on Kyrie´s head. Also let´s not forget that *cough* people *cough* raised concerns how much Kyrie actually contributed to winning before and after LeBron James. This whole Kyrie Robin thing probably worked out better than even the wildest fantasies Nico had;  from his on-court impact and off-court behaviour.

Then it has to be said the Mavs would also be a perfect fit for a healthy Lavine. We can cover his defensive weaknesses and playing off Luka/Kyrie, I bet he´d shoot 50/40/90 for a healthy season. That´s what the degree of difficulty of his shots tells me.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Unless DJJ has a Bruce Brown-esque Finals run (and that would be a great problem to have), I don't think anyone will consider offering him a lot more than the non-tax MLE. Mavs just need to find a way to free up that MLE.

One of these is Bruce Brown in the 22/23 Playoffs and the other is DJJ in the 23/24 Playoffs


              Player 1     Player 2

Age          27            26
Points       9.8           12.0
Reb          3.8           4.0
FG%        .492          .511
3%          .396          .316
VORP        0.3           0.4
WS/48      .096          .141
PER          11.1          15.5   
D-Rtg       116            109
On Ct        +7.4          +10.5
On-Off       +5.8         +4.1

Some other interesting data.  DJJ has the worst D-Rating of any of the top 7 in our playoff rotation (starters plus Lively and Green) at 116.  Green is 4th best at 112.  Jones has the 6th best WS/48 at .096 slightly beating out PJ at 0.91 (Green is .130).  DJJ has the 7th best PER at 11.1 (Green is 12.1).  Green is historically the better three point shooter, but in the playoffs he trails Jones.  If Josh made two more of his 48 attempted 3's (or Jones missed two of his 53 attempted 3's), they'd be the same there.

I continue to think Jones is 'worth' more than the TP MLE.  Whether someone will pay it or not is another question.  It would probably be a sacrifice on his part to take the $5.2mm on a 1+1.  If he does, great.  But, I still don't think you 'burn' the THJ expiring contract 'just' to get Jones more than the TP MLE.  Green with consistent minutes is roughly equivalent to Jones Jr.  I'd rather use THJ plus some draft assets toward improvement as that combo probably gets you a player who is just as good as or better than either Jones or Green (and you'd still have the TP MLE to spend on someone else if Jones Jr. left).

[Mavs2021]

One of these is Bruce Brown in the 22/23 Playoffs and the other is DJJ in the 23/24 Playoffs


              Player 1     Player 2

Age          27            26
Points       9.8           12.0
Reb          3.8           4.0
FG%        .492          .511
3%          .396          .316
VORP        0.3           0.4
WS/48      .096          .141
PER          11.1          15.5   
D-Rtg       116            109
On Ct        +7.4          +10.5
On-Off       +5.8         +4.1

Some other interesting data.  DJJ has the worst D-Rating of any of the top 7 in our playoff rotation (starters plus Lively and Green) at 116.  Green is 4th best at 112.  Jones has the 6th best WS/48 at .096 slightly beating out PJ at 0.91 (Green is .130).  DJJ has the 7th best PER at 11.1 (Green is 12.1).  Green is historically the better three point shooter, but in the playoffs he trails Jones.  If Josh made two more of his 48 attempted 3's (or Jones missed two of his 53 attempted 3's), they'd be the same there.

I continue to think Jones is 'worth' more than the TP MLE.  Whether someone will pay it or not is another question.  It would probably be a sacrifice on his part to take the $5.2mm on a 1+1.  If he does, great.  But, I still don't think you 'burn' the THJ expiring contract 'just' to get Jones more than the TP MLE.  Green with consistent minutes is roughly equivalent to Jones Jr.  I'd rather use THJ plus some draft assets toward improvement as that combo probably gets you a player who is just as good as or better than either Jones or Green (and you'd still have the TP MLE to spend on someone else if Jones Jr. left).

Now you are really being ungrateful. People cut you some slack after your seven year advanced stats journey to prove that Dwight Powell is more than a Mark Madsen towel waiver on a championship team. And now you can´t even last two days before you start the same mess with Josh Green (and DJJ). 

Come on man.

Also no idea why everybody always bring up Bruce Brown. That was a genius contract by the Pacers that they wanted for salary-matching purpose. They never thought he was even worth half of it, especially to a non-contender. At least DJJ has meaning to the Mavs, which is the reason they will retain him in the mid-level exception range. 

I´m sure they´ll find a creative way to do it. 

Micic + Wizards 26th pick to Dallas
Bagley + complete unprotection of the Mavs 2027 1st round pick to Charlotte
THJ + Mavs 2025 1st (lottery protected) to Washington

That should give you enough breathing space to get very close to the necessary (imho) 44/4 to retain DJJ.

Added benefit for our minority owner: the Knicks pick 24th and 25th. If we acquire #26 for THJ and nail the pick, Cuban can claim he won the KP trade.

[SleepingHero]

One of these is Bruce Brown in the 22/23 Playoffs and the other is DJJ in the 23/24 Playoffs


              Player 1     Player 2

Age          27            26
Points       9.8           12.0
Reb          3.8           4.0
FG%        .492          .511
3%          .396          .316
VORP        0.3           0.4
WS/48      .096          .141
PER          11.1          15.5   
D-Rtg       116            109
On Ct        +7.4          +10.5
On-Off       +5.8         +4.1

Some other interesting data.  DJJ has the worst D-Rating of any of the top 7 in our playoff rotation (starters plus Lively and Green) at 116.  Green is 4th best at 112.  Jones has the 6th best WS/48 at .096 slightly beating out PJ at 0.91 (Green is .130).  DJJ has the 7th best PER at 11.1 (Green is 12.1).  Green is historically the better three point shooter, but in the playoffs he trails Jones.  If Josh made two more of his 48 attempted 3's (or Jones missed two of his 53 attempted 3's), they'd be the same there.

I continue to think Jones is 'worth' more than the TP MLE.  Whether someone will pay it or not is another question.  It would probably be a sacrifice on his part to take the $5.2mm on a 1+1.  If he does, great.  But, I still don't think you 'burn' the THJ expiring contract 'just' to get Jones more than the TP MLE.  Green with consistent minutes is roughly equivalent to Jones Jr.  I'd rather use THJ plus some draft assets toward improvement as that combo probably gets you a player who is just as good as or better than either Jones or Green (and you'd still have the TP MLE to spend on someone else if Jones Jr. left).

I can see how you arrive to this conclusion looking at the stats but watching the game it couldn't be further from reality imo. Not saying you don't watch games, but that statement is strong and controversial. 

Green has his moments, but if he was starting this playoff run I think the Mavs go home against OKC. Green makes up for his jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none approach with outstanding hustle. But he can't replicate DJJ's rim pressure and length on the defensive end 

I don't think we are "burning" THJ's contract if we're using it to retain DJJ. Especially if we can get a cheap bench piece from it. If we're looking to improve the team in the coming years we'd still have DJJ+Green+Maxi all on easy to digest contracts with the added benefit of being valuable players and the Mavs can use those guys to improve the starting 5.