Trade & FA 2023-24: Vezenkov+Kings Are Done

[The Jom]

I'm a huge Maxi homer, and he is uniquely valuable in the playoffs, but the reality is that he is an aging oft injured defense only player.  I doubt any team wants to take on that contract for a guy they can't trust to be on the court and has significant offensive deficiencies.

I like you and your smart posts. But I can’t believe this. If OKC had Maxi, we’d be toast. And they know it. Same with LAC.

[F Gump]

Gafford is far better than he's being depicted here. There's an incredible amount of recency bias and "plus minus tells us everthing" nonsense going on.

In addition, the presence of Gafford makes Lively better, and vice versa, because of things like injuries, fouls, fatigue, bad games at times, and so on. Gafford plays the other teams starter, when he is fresh. If you erase Gafford, you are going to get frustrated with the limits and flaws of Lively, which right now get minimized by having another very playable good center to use.

Most important to consider is that while centers look to be inexpensive, the fact is that the Mavs have shown no ability whatsoever to identify and sign that cheap center. Now that it isn't broke, I don't want to fix it with the next Cauley-Stein, McGee, Powell, etc. I don't care what anyone says, Gafford is WORLDS better than any of those.

[KillerLeft]

Gafford is far better than he's being depicted here. There's an incredible amount of recency bias and "plus minus tells us everthing" nonsense going on.

In addition, the presence of Gafford makes Lively better, and vice versa, because of things like injuries, fouls, fatigue, bad games at times, and so on. Gafford plays the other teams starter, when he is fresh. If you erase Gafford, you are going to get frustrated with the limits and flaws of Lively, which right now get minimized by having another very playable good center to use.

Most important to consider is that while centers look to be inexpensive, the fact is that the Mavs have shown no ability whatsoever to identify and sign that cheap center. Now that it isn't broke, I don't want to fix it with the next Cauley-Stein, McGee, Powell, etc. I don't care what anyone says, Gafford is WORLDS better than any of those.

I agree with the vast majority of the logic here, but take a little offense to the plus minus comment, because it is not being used to tell me everything, but rather to confirm what I believe I saw watching the games. If you believe you saw something different, great, but no need to minimize my point to make yours. 

I hated the way Gafford played in the majority of the first two rounds, and the totality of the second round. Now, maybe he improves the next time around, because Lord knows others like Brunson sure have. The playoffs are very difficult. But, I have a feeling OKC is going to be a perennial opponent, and he did not look like a good fit against them, at least to me, at least this time. I have maintained since about two weeks after the trade was made that Gafford was good, but was being overrated here. I still feel that way, strongly.

And again, all I care about is that Jones is retained. I am simply trying to envision as many ways as possible that could happen.

[mvossman]

I like you and your smart posts. But I can’t believe this. If OKC had Maxi, we’d be toast. And they know it. Same with LAC.

If OKC had Maxi he wouldn't be on the court because he is out with injury.  And that is the problem.  His availability is on a significant downward trend and games missed does not even tell the entire story, because sometimes he plays hurt and is a shell of himself.  And its not about how valuable I think he is, its about what other teams think.  And this was a thread about dumping salary, so its only rebuilding cap space teams that we are talking about.  Those teams are not looking for a 32 year old defensive specialist who can't stay on the court.  He provides no value to them.  Someone suggested dumping his salary to make room for DJJ (which I would be against even if possible) but it doesn't make sense for either team.

[F Gump]

Plus minus. Eye test. The last series. So let's make Gafford expendable. "But I really like him, it's just a DJJ thing." That's what I am hearing repeatedly, and I'm not seeing any of it is a good reason. I seriously think you are way too cavalier with your criteria for replacing a player that is very useful.

It is not an either/or with DJJ. There are WAY better options available, and the disclaimer about DJJ doesn't mitigate the fact you did pick, and bash on, Gafford as THE proposed route because of plus minus, eye test (whatever very subjective thing that means), and total recency.

Sure, Gafford has flaws, but he is still young. He is just now on his first few months with a decent team and learning how to play in this system (Lively has had 2-3 times the number of months here to learn how to play it.) Don't forget that Lively was made starter at first with Gafford here, and that did NOT work. DG makes plays all the time. His contract is reasonable. For equal or less dollars, he is offering WAY more than players like THJ and Green.

[KillerLeft]

Plus minus. Eye test. The last series. So let's make Gafford expendable. "But I really like him, it's just a DJJ thing." That's what I am hearing repeatedly, and I'm not seeing any of it is a good reason.

I seriously think you are way too cavalier with your criteria for replacing a player that is very useful. I

There are WAY better options available, and the disclaimer about DJJ doesn't mitigate the fact you did pick, and bash on, Gafford as your proposed route because of plus minus, eye test (whatever very subjective thing that means), and total recency.

Gafford is still young. He is just now on his first few months with a decent team and learning how to play in this system. He makes plays all the time. His contract is reasonable. For equal or less dollars, he is offering WAY more than players like THJ and Green.

Simple question: IF the Mavs had to make a choice of who to jettison between Green, Gafford or DJJ (assume they must, because that’s the premise) who do you choose to move? 

I could be talked into either Green or Gafford, but I know Jones is the one I’d want back most!

[mvossman]

Plus minus. Eye test. The last series. So let's make Gafford expendable. "But I really like him, it's just a DJJ thing." That's what I am hearing repeatedly, and I'm not seeing any of it is a good reason.

I seriously think you are way too cavalier with your criteria for replacing a player that is very useful. I

There are WAY better options available, and the disclaimer about DJJ doesn't mitigate the fact you did pick, and bash on, Gafford as your proposed route because of plus minus, eye test (whatever very subjective thing that means), and total recency.

Gafford is still young. He is just now on his first few months with a decent team and learning how to play in this system. He makes plays all the time. His contract is reasonable. For equal or less dollars, he is offering WAY more than players like THJ and Green.

This seems overly aggressive.  

Folks like Killer and Dirkfan have been saying since the trade that a concern with Gafford is his ability to defend in space.  That he is a good regular season center than will likely struggle when faced with the five out offenses that are used much more often in the playoffs.  The evidcence is clear (both eye test and massive disparity in on/off even accounting for sample size) that he indeed struggles (like most centers) in this situation.  

Killer already said he would prefer to address the need for space with Timmy or Green, so not sure why you are bringing them up.  He also mentioned that part of the reason to send out Gafford is to get a valuable asset back (as opposed to sending one out).  Its at least worth a discussion instead of the aggression you are showing here.

[KillerLeft]

Plus minus. Eye test. The last series. So let's make Gafford expendable. "But I really like him, it's just a DJJ thing." That's what I am hearing repeatedly, and I'm not seeing any of it is a good reason.

I seriously think you are way too cavalier with your criteria for replacing a player that is very useful. I

There are WAY better options available, and the disclaimer about DJJ doesn't mitigate the fact you did pick, and bash on, Gafford as your proposed route because of plus minus, eye test (whatever very subjective thing that means), and total recency.

Gafford is still young. He is just now on his first few months with a decent team and learning how to play in this system. He makes plays all the time. His contract is reasonable. For equal or less dollars, he is offering WAY more than players like THJ and Green.

The eye test can be subjective, sure, but much more so when it’s coming from some than others.

The premise that started a few pages ago, and not by me, was that it might be beneficial to find a way besides dumping Hardaway to come up with the money to re-sign Jones. I’m not convinced that’s true, because it is clear that Hardaway is no longer wanted on this team, but that’s the thought exercise.

So, a simple question: between Green, Gafford and Jones, who would you be most OK with losing? I understand that there might be even a more creative way to get all accomplished, and I have a long track record of thinking that Jones’ price tag probably won’t be as crazy as people suspect it will be around here…but, he is far exceeding expectations and I’m starting to get a little worried. 

We don’t have to totally agree on where Gafford is as a player, because the sample size on that is pretty small. But even if you think he is the second best center in the league, you’d agree, I hope, that he has not been as impactful as Jones, correct? And, you'd agree that they have TWO centers, of which he is the lesser, I’m sure!

That’s all I’m saying, that if push came to shove, I’d much rather move the depth than the one, key player in Jones. 

What you call bashing him I call pointing out obvious flaws in his game. He doesn’t move his feet well in space, defensively. That, alone, is enough to sour me on him a little because that’s the only thing I really care about with centers. I also think he’s a pretty overrated rebounder. He is great on the offensive glass when he is playing well, and that’s nice, but I’d say he’s below average as a starting center on the defensive glass. He is also really bad at getting the ball on the short role and making effective decisions quickly (this is an area where he might improve, to be fair). None of that is meant to distract from the things he does well, which are energy and vertical spacing. I’m glad he’s on the team!

[F Gump]

Simple question: IF the Mavs had to make a choice of who to jettison between Green, Gafford or DJJ (assume they must, because that’s the premise) who do you choose to move? 

I could be talked into either Green or Gafford, but I know Jones is the one I’d want back most!

Green. For me, it's not even a hard question, if those are the choices. 

I do think Green can net value in return, but I see him as far more expendable.

[mvossman]

Green. For me, it's not even a hard question, if those are the choices. 

I do think Green can net value in return, but I see him as far more expendable.

What if Green is a straight dump and Gafford can land you a weak first?  Add additional options stretch waiving Timmy or sending out strongly protected 25 to dump Timmy.

[KillerLeft]

Green. For me, it's not even a hard question, if those are the choices. 

I do think Green can net value in return, but I see him as far more expendable.

That’s fair, thanks!

[dirkfansince1998]

Phrasing it differently. If the Mavs need to create space for DJJ. Who would you prefer to let go? I want to have it all isn't an option.

1) THJ + 2025 1st (+Hardy)
2) Green
3) Gafford
4) Kleber
5) Don't resign DJJ

For me this would the order. I think THJ + 2025 is the best option because the Mavs should be trying to improve but I can understand that some people would prefer to use his contract at the deadline because it is going to be more valuable (no matter how he performs). It's hard to tell what a package of THJ, Hardy and pick can get in return but it should at the very least be an improvement.

Green is solid all around and only two years younger than Gafford. More versatile and probably a 20 minutes per game player no matter how the Mavs construct the roster. On the other hand it shouldn't be all that difficult to replace him. Mavs already have Exum on a cheap deal and the list SG/SF sized 3&D players is longer than the list of playable bigs.

Gafford has been more impactful than Green since he arrived and is a great fit in a 1a-1b scenario next to Lively. But Lively is already better and has more upside. Should be starting sooner than later. As long as his durability is questionable it still wouldn't hurt to have a backup that can also play starter minutes when Lively is out.
He is also the most valuable asset among the mentioned names. Opening opportunties to add assets for a bigger THJ deal at the deadline (or even in the same offseason).

I don't think Kleber has real trade value. Just not playing enough due to never ending injury issues. But when he is playing he has the most on court value. Also difficult to replace him because his skillset is unique. But it might be the best longterm solution because the Mavs need more than the on paper version. They need a reliable stretch five that is actually available in the playoffs. Just not sure if the best time is this summer. With limited picks available and no salary space to work with.

[Smitty]

All of this Gafford and/or Green trade talk is exhausting. I've chimed in from time to time because that's all anyone wants to talk about on here but my preference is to keep those two young players, that have a hand in getting the Mavs to the WCF (any maybe even a championship). Let's see how it plays out and revisit the offseason in the offseason? Maybe opinions will change from now till then...

[mvossman]

Phrasing it differently. If the Mavs need to create space for DJJ. Who would you prefer to let go? I want to have it all isn't an option.

1) THJ + 2025 1st (+Hardy)
2) Green
3) Gafford
4) Kleber
5) Don't resign DJJ

For me this would the order. I think THJ + 2025 is the best option because the Mavs should be trying to improve but I can understand that some people would prefer to use his contract at the deadline because it is going to be more valuable (no matter how he performs). It's hard to tell what a package of THJ, Hardy and pick can get in return but it should at the very least be an improvement.

Green is solid all around and only two years younger than Gafford. More versatile and probably a 20 minutes per game player no matter how the Mavs construct the roster. On the other hand it shouldn't be all that difficult to replace him. Mavs already have Exum on a cheap deal and the list SG/SF sized 3&D players is longer than the list of playable bigs.

Gafford has been more impactful than Green since he arrived and is a great fit in a 1a-1b scenario next to Lively. But Lively is already better and has more upside. Should be starting sooner than later.  As long as his durability is questionable it still wouldn't hurt to have a backup that can also play starter minutes when Lively is out.
He is also the most valuable asset among the mentioned names. Opening opportunties to add assets for a bigger THJ deal at the deadline (or even in the same offseason).

I don't think Kleber has real trade value. Just not playing enough due to never ending injury issues. But when he is playing he has the most on court value. Also difficult to replace because his skillset is unique. But it might be the best longterm solution because the Mavs need more than the on paper version. They need a reliable stretch five that is actually available in the playoffs. Just not sure if the best time is this summer. With limited picks available and no salary space to work with.

On the Timmy options, would you prefer:

Send heavily protected first
Send Hardy
Stretch waive (would be a little over 5 mil for 3 years which should leave enough for DJJ)
Send unprotected first for Grimes

EDIT: I guess I misunderstood your Tim solution. You are not dumping him into space. You are looking to trade. The problem is that does not get you to MLE money unless you trade with a cap space team. About the only player of value on a cap space team that would make sense and get us to the right number is Grimes.

[DallasMaverick]

The eye test can be subjective, sure, but much more so when it’s coming from some than others.

The premise started a few pages ago, and not by me, was that it might be beneficial to find a way besides dumping Hardaway to come up with the money to re-sign Jones. I’m not convinced that’s true, because it is clear that Hardaway is no longer wanted on this team, but that’s the thought exercise.

So, a simple question: between Green, Gafford and Jones, who would you be most OK with losing? I understand that there might be even a more creative way to get all accomplished, and I have a long track record of thinking that Jones’ price tag probably won’t be as crazy as people suspect it will be around here…but, he is far exceeding expectations and I’m starting to get a little worried. 

We don’t have to totally agree on where Gafford is as a player, because the sample size on that is pretty small. But even if you think he is the second best center in the league, you’d agree, I hope, that he has not been as impactful as Jones, correct? Hand, you degree that they have TWO centers, of which he is the lesser, I’m sure!

That’s all I’m saying, that if push came to shove, I’d much rather move the depth then the one, key player in Jones. 

What you call bashing him I call pointing out obvious flaws in his game. He doesn’t move his feet well in space, defensively. That, alone, is enough to sour me on him because that’s the only thing I really care about with centers. I also think he’s a pretty overrated rebounder. He is great on the offensive glass when he is playing well, and that’s nice, but I’d say he’s below average as a starting center on the defensive glass. He is also really bad at getting the ball on the short role and making effective decisions quickly (this is an area where he might improve, to be fair. None of that is meant to distract from the things he does well, which are energy and vertical spacing. I’m glad he’s on the team!

Hmm.  

Ok, which do you like better? Powell at $4m, or Gafford at $14m. 

From your description, it sounds like they’re pretty similar players.

[mvossman]

Hmm.  

Ok, which do you like better? Powell at $4m, or Gafford at $14m. 

From your description, it sounds like they’re pretty similar players.

Actually they are very different.  Gafford is way better rim protector and rebounder.  Powell is actually a better defender in space.  Powell may have actually been a better defender against OKC even though he provides little deterrence at the rim.  But you take a big hit in rebounding and he has lost a step vertically and not same class as Gafford on that end.

[F Gump]

What if Green is a straight dump and Gafford can land you a weak first?  Add additional options stretch waiving Timmy or sending out strongly protected 25 to dump Timmy.

Yep, there are a million what if's. None of them really matter that much, since who knows if ANY of them will happen. 

I'll add some more. What if a THJ giveaway can net a pick? What if DJJ will sign a TxMLE 1+1? What if Caruso is available in a THJ deal after all?... etc

[KillerLeft]

Hmm.  

Ok, which do you like better? Powell at $4m, or Gafford at $14m. 

From your description, it sounds like they’re pretty similar players.

Not similar players, no. I would much prefer Gafford at any price, but I always have said and still maintain that there are things Powell does much better than this board realizes. I think a team could do much worse at backup center, particularly when the second guy is a five out guy and the third guy won’t be in the everyday rotation (outside of foul trouble or injury). 

I think that’s where some of the disconnect of this conversation is. I am not saying Gafford is only qualified for that role. I am saying that he is overqualified for it. And, I’m saying that Lively needs to be a full-time player, not part of a two-headed monster.

It’s not Gafford that I don’t think they “need.” It’s the entire idea of his role. He’s certainly a luxury, don’t get me wrong, it’s just that for me, Lively is very obviously the better player and capable of contributing even more than he already is. Now.

[Chicagojk]

It is too bad all the Gafford talk drowned out my hot Wizards trade ideas post

[michaeltex]

My $0.02...

After years in the desert hunting for any servicable center, DAL now has one that's definitely a keeper and one that's better than any low cost alternative I know about. I've had my fill of Woods, McGee, WCS, Brown, Boban, etc., none of whom could beat out Powell for the starting spot.

Gafford's work against a couple of guys who were bigger in the first two rounds was not stellar, but he brings a battler's effort that sets the tone for the rest of the team. There's a reason they went 16-2 with him as the starting 5. He may not have the ceiling of Lively, but he still brings a fierceness that DAL has been missing for a long time.

I know the original question was how to keep DJJ. I'm OK with any combination of Powell, Green, and THJ. But, unless there's an obvious upgrade, Gafford needs to stay in DAL.