Trade & FA 2023-24: Sexton On the Market? | ORL Likes Hartenstein?

[mvossman]

You are right.  This is unpopular…at least with me.

Our center rotation just averaged 22 points and 22 boards a game to move us to the WCF and you want to break that up?  Our two headed monster at the center position is a strength and as currently constructed there is still opportunity to play the 5-out center’ that you seem to think is a ‘requirement’.  It is a choice and we have that choice (or at least we do when Maxi is healthy).  It doesn’t require moving Gafford to play it.  

But, pretty clearly, 48 minutes of Gafford/Lively is also a viable strategy (in the ‘modern’ NBA).  Two successful playoff rounds show us that much more than some small sample size +/-.  And where was this when Gafford was +17 in the closeout game against the Clippers.  We don’t even get to see Lively look good against OKC without that.  Between Lively, Gafford, PJ, Maxi and OMax eventually replacing Maxi, we have a fantastic situation at C/PF.  I see no logic in breaking that up.  

I also don’t want to trade Green or Maxi.  THJ is the obvious candidate.  My preference there is to wait till the TDL and combine him with the 2025 pick.  But, there are two issues with that.  THJ continues to block Hardy and it would require DJJ take the TP MLE.  If we trade THJ this summer, I’d rather it be for a less expensive player.  This idea of getting nothing (or worse, paying to move him) is a bad idea.  There are too many potential opportunities with THJ to waste the asset just to clear space.  The good news is Nico and Co have been much more creative than any of us dreamed the last two trade seasons.  Hopefully that will continue.

If DJJ keeps playing like this, I don't know that a salary matching trade is going to generate enough room to sign him.  If it needs to generate full MLE room then it has to be with a cap space team for a much cheaper player (like my Grimes suggestion).  Regardless, if we are trading Timmy for a less expensive player of any value, we are likely going to have to attach 25 to it.

[mvossman]

Wait, what??? When did we start talking about dumping Maxi? No!!! (And no way doing so would cost assets.)

I'm a huge Maxi homer, and he is uniquely valuable in the playoffs, but the reality is that he is an aging oft injured defense only player.  I doubt any team wants to take on that contract for a guy they can't trust to be on the court and has significant offensive deficiencies.

[omahen]

If DJJ keeps playing like this, I don't know that a salary matching trade is going to generate enough room to sign him.  If it needs to generate full MLE room then it has to be with a cap space team for a much cheaper player (like my Grimes suggestion).  Regardless, if we are trading Timmy for a less expensive player of any value, we are likely going to have to attach 25 to it.

Browsing through cap space teams and I just don't see much. Mostly a bunch of nobodies or young players they wouldn't trade for just another pick. One option perhaps - Kispert. He is expiring, already 25 and up for extension. What is Washington long term plan for him? A THJ like shooter who doesn't provide much more and probably he is what he is at his age. Mavs would save 11 mil.

Grimes is certainly an interesting option, but I kind of doubt Detroit would let him go for what would likely be a very late FRP in 2025. Would prefer him to Kispert of course.

Alternative could also be a three team deal where we send THJ to a cap space team for a couple of second rounders and then pay the 2025 for some interesting player on any team. AJ Griffin from Atlanta had a good rookie season but totally fell out of favor in the second one, for example.

[fifteenth]

Trying to get rid of Gafford now has shades of Cuban getting rid of Tyson Chandler.

Lively can't play 40+ MPG in a game. He'll get fouled out and/or succumb to injuries.

Does Gafford have flaws? Sure. Lively does too, and he's still a rookie. So I'm totally fine with Gafford @ $13.4M in an equal rotation with Lively over the next two seasons, to have two great roll men for Luka at all times. An equal rotation between the two also means their price will be automatically kept lower, instead of giving one guy the bulk of the minutes and letting him think he's more important than he is, thus risking him asking for a bigger salary than he should get down the line.

And actually, I want to add a 3rd guy to this rotation, i.e., Jericho Sims, to cover for when or if one of Lively or Gafford get injured or in foul trouble... as well as to show them that they are replaceable by the 3rd guy.

Gafford + Lively total next season is just $18.4M... or a mere 13% of the $141M cap max... a small price to pay to have the Center position covered.

While THJ costs $16.1M by himself, to cover nothing. 

And Kyrie is $40M, whereas Dejounte is $25.5M... a $14.5M difference.

Lively is the young Tyson 

But I agree, our young Tyson can't play 40 min

[fifteenth]

I'm no good for these trade and FA threads. I'm unrealistic and just want to keep everyone who is contributing. I'd be a horrible GM

[mvossman]

Browsing through cap space teams and I just don't see much. Mostly a bunch of nobodies or young players they wouldn't trade for just another pick. One option perhaps - Kispert. He is expiring, already 25 and up for extension. What is Washington long term plan for him? A THJ like shooter who doesn't provide much more and probably he is what he is at his age. Mavs would save 11 mil.

Grimes is certainly an interesting option, but I kind of doubt Detroit would let him go for what would likely be a very late FRP in 2025. Would prefer him to Kispert of course.

Alternative could also be a three team deal where we send THJ to a cap space team for a couple of second rounders and then pay the 2025 for some interesting player on any team. AJ Griffin from Atlanta had a good rookie season but totally fell out of favor in the second one, for example.

Yeah, if we need the full MLE there are not a lot of options other than full dump.  We tried to trade Green for Grimes so there is clearly interest.  If we send a first at least Detroit can say they got a first out of Bogdan.

[KillerLeft]

But, pretty clearly, 48 minutes of Gafford/Lively is also a viable strategy (in the ‘modern’ NBA).  Two successful playoff rounds show us that much more than some small sample size +/-.  And where was this when Gafford was +17 in the closeout game against the Clippers.  We don’t even get to see Lively look good against OKC without that.  Between Lively, Gafford, PJ, Maxi and OMax eventually replacing Maxi, we have a fantastic situation at C/PF.  I see no logic in breaking that up.  

Can you call it two-headed when one head is so drastically superior to the other?

I don’t get how people watched the OKC series and still feel this strongly that Gafford is a necessary fit here. To my eyes, lively is in a complete different tier, and Gafford is the insurance policy. All I’m saying is I think they could find a cheaper insurance policy (in the context of a conversation about how to keep DJJ).

I do think a five out lineup is absolutely necessary, yes. That’s because I’m looking around the NBA and seeing that almost every single team can play that way. But, it’s also because it’s the best way to combat the size you guys are so worried about. Does the addition of Gafford really have anyone feeling more confident against the Wolves? I’ll say it again – give me Kleber over him for this series in a heartbeat!

[KillerLeft]

Guys, I’m not trying to get rid of Gafford by any means necessary. The conversation was about finding ways to shed salary so as to re-sign Derek Jones, Jr. Remember?

Obviously, they are going to trade Hardaway. But when someone swooped in with “I’d rather wait until the deadline to trade Hardaway” I tried to imagine other ways to shed salary.

The only other significant and expendable salary on the roster is Gafford and/or Green. One of those three players, those two + Hardaway, is going to be gone this summer, don’t we think? I agree with the consensus here that Gafford is probably the least likely of the three to be moved, but I can make a case (and feel I have) for why i might consider moving him were I in the Mavs’ shoes. The crux of it is that I do not believe the center situation of the Mavericks is this amazing, awesome thing, currently. It’s not bad, for sure.

All I know for sure is that I have officially arrived (currently) at a place where I prefer keeping DJJ over ANY of those three players should the choice need to be made. If they can get it done by moving Hardaway, great. If they can get it done by moving no one, even better! But, if they can’t, Green or Gafford had better be gone, not Jones.

[mvossman]

Can you call it two-headed when one head is so drastically superior to the other?

I don’t get how people watched the OKC series and still feel this strongly that Gafford is a necessary fit here. To my eyes, lively is in a complete different tier, and Gafford is the insurance policy. All I’m saying is I think they could find a cheaper insurance policy (in the context of a conversation about how to keep DJJ).

I do think a five out lineup is absolutely necessary, yes. That’s because I’m looking around the NBA and seeing that almost every single team can play that way. But, it’s also because it’s the best way to combat the size you guys are so worried about. Does the addition of Gafford really have anyone feeling more confident against the Wolves?  I’ll say it again – give me Kleber over him for this series in a heartbeat!

I think the difference between Lively and Gafford will be less this series as the biggest difference between the two is 5 out defense and this is the one team we are going to face that can't do 5 out.

Gafford may be an insurance policy, but Lively missed 29 games this season and Maxi missed 39 plus over half the playoff games.  Its an insurance policy we are going to cash in a lot.  You can make the argument that he is a luxury, but its one we have needed.

[BigDirk41]

I want no part of trading Gafford. Sorry Killer, but you clearly just don't like Gafford and that's fine, but I think the majority of us want him on this team going forward. No he can't be easily replaced and you seriously undervalue his value to this team. I think you're in the minority on this one. 48 minutes of Gafford/Lively has already proven to work and sometimes one of them does better than the other versus certain teams. Gafford and Jones both have to stay. Mavs need to figure out how to make that happen.

[Smitty]

I think the difference between Lively and Gafford will be less this series as the biggest difference between the two is 5 out defense and this is the one team we are going to face that can't do 5 out.

They most certainly can. KAT at the 5 and Reid at the 4 gives them two 41% 3PT shooters in the front court. Just because KAT is 7'0 doesn't mean it isn't 5-out.

[mvossman]

Guys, I’m not trying to get rid of Gafford by any means necessary. The conversation was about finding ways to shed salary so as to re-sign Derek Jones, Jr. Remember?

Obviously, they are going to trade Hardaway. But when someone swooped in with “I’d rather wait until the deadline to trade Hardaway” I tried to imagine other ways to shed salary.

The only other significant and expendable salary on the roster is Gafford and or Green. One of those three players, those two + Hardaway, is going to be gone this summer, don’t we think? I agree with the consensus here that Gafford is probably the least likely of the three to be moved, but I can make a case (and feel I have) for why i might consider moving him were I in the Mavs’ shoes. The crux of it is that I do not believe the center situation of the Mavericks is this amazing, awesome thing, currently. It’s not bad, for sure.

All I know for sure is that I have officially arrived (currently) at a place where I prefer keeping DJJ over ANY of those three players should the choice need to be made. If they can get it done by moving Hardaway, great. If they can get it done by moving no one, even better! But, if they can’t, Green or Gafford had better be gone, not Jones.

I'm with Dan from the standpoint that the goal should be to get better.  Amazingly we are legit contenders.  This is the time to buy.  In an ideal world we are sending out Timmy and the first (possibly in two different transactions) and getting back both room to sign DJJ and an a rotational player.  If that can't happen, and it costs a first just to dump Timmy, I think I consider discussing a buy out and stretch waive of Timmy to make the room.  I think I would prefer that to dumping Gafford or Green, unless we get real value back for one of them.

[KillerLeft]

Sorry Killer, but you clearly just don't like Gafford 

That's literally the opposite of what I'm saying, unless liking Lively and DJJ more is "not liking Gafford." 

I don't think Gafford is in the same league as Lively, no, but that's not the same thing as not liking him.

[mvossman]

They most certainly can. KAT at the 5 and Reid at the 4 gives them two 41% 3PT shooters in the front court. Just because KAT is 7'0 doesn't mean it isn't 5-out.

I guess that's true (although you could probably give Anderson or McDaniels the Giddey treatment).  I guess what I am saying is they are not a predominantly 5 out offense like OKC or the two finalists in the east.

[KillerLeft]

I think the difference between Lively and Gafford will be less this series as the biggest difference between the two is 5 out defense and this is the one team we are going to face that can't do 5 out.

Gafford may be an insurance policy, but Lively missed 29 games this season and Maxi missed 39 plus over half the playoff games.  Its an insurance policy we are going to cash in a lot.  You can make the argument that he is a luxury, but its one we have needed.

Agree with the second point, it's just that I can envision a cheaper Gafford replacement (for the millionth time, IF NECESSARY TO RE-SIGN JONES) being just fine, and there are some cheaper guys who could even be as good, or better. 

For the first point, this is the series in which I believe the Mavs will miss the opportunity to play 5-out with Kleber/Washington the MOST, not the least. It's not about matching your opponent's strategy, it's about exploiting it. Minnesota is BIG, but they're SLOW. We have literally SEEN with our own eyes what happens when you play Kleber at the 5 against Gobert. The Mavs won that series BECAUSE of Gobert, and his team traded him THAT SUMMER. 

But, I agree, having the choice between Gafford and Kleber is great and a luxury. All of this was about finding money for DJJ. They're not going to get better by letting DJJ get away, I feel confident about that, at this point. Again, if you can do it another way, I'm all for it. Maybe he will sign the TMLE, but if he doesn't...

[fifteenth]

@KillerLeft, based on how these threads go, I'm expecting at least a couple more "Killer hates Gafford" posts. Just letting you know that all of us who have already read the entire thread hear ya. :-)

I have an actual question for you as well. If we imagine a scenario where Lively is ready for full starter minutes next season, and we plan for Kleber to play a little at back-up 4 and a little back-up 5, then what is the optimal solution as a third big in your mind?

Regarding Gafford, I think we have all enjoyed the improvement of our vertical game that came from having the combo of DJJ, PJ, Gafford and Lively all catching lobs and the rebounding that having Gafford and Lively has provided. Would you value a big that continues to contribute to that vertical game and rebounding or one who would be able to play 5 out, so that Kleber isn't the only one who can do that?

I'm kind of thinking that Lively may be heading in the direction of being able to hit threes next season, or the season after, so there's that.

[rocky164]

They most certainly can. KAT at the 5 and Reid at the 4 gives them two 41% 3PT shooters in the front court. Just because KAT is 7'0 doesn't mean it isn't 5-out.

This is really the only T-pups line-up I fear we don’t match up well against.  Reid has killed us in the past although not against our current roster.  If we find a way to equal this lineup when they’re on the floor we win the series.  We don’t have to win against this lineup we just can’t be dominated by this lineup.  It’s for this reason, I’m in no hurry to play Gobert off the floor

[rocky164]

Agree with the second point, it's just that I can envision a cheaper Gafford replacement (for the millionth time, IF NECESSARY TO RE-SIGN JONES) being just fine, and there are some cheaper guys who could even be as good, or better. 

For the first point, this is the series in which I believe the Mavs will miss the opportunity to play 5-out with Kleber/Washington the MOST, not the least. It's not about matching your opponent's strategy, it's about exploiting it. Minnesota is BIG, but they're SLOW. We have literally SEEN with our own eyes what happens when you play Kleber at the 5 against Gobert. The Mavs won that series BECAUSE of Gobert, and his team traded him THAT SUMMER. 

But, I agree, having the choice between Gafford and Kleber is great and a luxury. All of this was about finding money for DJJ. They're not going to get better by letting DJJ get away, I feel confident about that, at this point. Again, if you can do it another way, I'm all for it. Maybe he will sign the TMLE, but if he doesn't...

Theoretically cheaper centers should be available.  The problem is we’ve been trying to find one for the last 12 years.  SO, now that we have the center position not only covered but is a position of strength, I would not be wiling to trade Gafford.  Find another way to keep DJJ

[KillerLeft]

@KillerLeft, based on how these threads go, I'm expecting at least a couple more "Killer hates Gafford" posts. Just letting you know that all of us who have already read the entire thread hear ya. :-)

I have an actual question for you as well. If we imagine a scenario where Lively is ready for full starter minutes next season, and we plan for Kleber to play a little at back-up 4 and a little back-up 5, then what is the optimal solution as a third big in your mind?

Regarding Gafford, I think we have all enjoyed the improvement of our vertical game that came from having the combo of DJJ, PJ, Gafford and Lively all catching lobs and the rebounding that having Gafford and Lively has provided. Would you value a big that continues to contribute to that vertical game and rebounding or one who would be able to play 5 out, so that Kleber isn't the only one who can do that?

I'm kind of thinking that Lively may be heading in the direction of being able to hit threes next season, or the season after, so there's that.

If it comes down to losing DJJ, then I'll flatly say (at the risk of incurring even more wrath from the villagers) that I'd prefer to bank on Powell (at his new reasonable price) as the 3rd center (behind Lively and Kleber) over that outcome (losing DJJ). Again, there will probably be another way not to lose DJJ (we hope), and I'm fine with that, too. But, I think Gafford's contribution, while fun, is dispensable. Powell or someone even better could be fine (and cheaper). What DJJ has finally settled into here, and I was skeptical of this all season, is NOT dispensable. That's my whole point. 

As for your question: Sure, a vertical threat who can also space would add a ton of options. You're basically describing what Porzingis was supposed to be here, and has been in Boston. For whatever reason, he didn't want to play that way here. Mix in a little bit of a midrange iso game (might be a long shot for Lively, but at this point I wouldn't put anything past him) and you've got what Myles Turner is doing in IND. That would be super. Turner is actually a better comp for what they need, because he can MOVE on defense, unlike the stiff Porzingis.

[KillerLeft]

Theoretically cheaper centers should be available.  The problem is we’ve been trying to find one for the last 12 years.  SO, now that we have the center position not only covered but is a position of strength, I would not be wiling to trade Gafford.  Find another way to keep DJJ

I don't disagree that center is a position of strength, or that this is a good thing. I just think the REASON for that is 90% Lively and only 10% Gafford. 

I think DJJ has much more ownership over the newly effective Mavs team defense than 10%. 

If they can find money for DJJ another way, I'm all for it. I probably prefer to keep Gafford over Hardaway, but I'm unsure whether I'd want to keep him over Green (could go either way). I'm NOT in favor of keeping ANY of them over DJJ. These first two rounds have convinced me about him.