Trade & FA 2023-24: DJJ: I Plan On Coming Back This Summer

[KillerLeft]

I think Caruso can handle big wings better than you would think.  I don't think you would be giving up much versatility.  And as great as a defensive player DJJ is, I think he has a fairly negative impact on the other side of the ball.  I know you have been frustrated in the past with our limited spacing, and having both PJ and DJJ in the starting lineup is a big part of that problem.  

Plus, it would be really nice to have DJJ come off the bench as our primary backup forward.

Oh, for some reason, I thought your scenario was an either/or with Caruso/DJJ. Sorry, it has been a long day.

Yeah, I am a fan of Caruso the player. I obviously would like him to be on the team if there were an easy path. I guess I’m just not as sure as you that switching him out with Jones, even just in the starting lineup, what have the impact necessary to justify giving up ANOTHER distant future first. I really don’t like the idea of pissing away more picks. I think I’d rather just find out what the team will look like, as is, only with a training camp and a few more months together before I did anything like that.

Don’t get me wrong, there are probably moves that would tempt me to give up a pick over the summer, I just don’t have that vibe on Caruso at the moment, personally, but I also think it would take more than one pick to snag him. We have been saying for years that the Mavericks are running out of assets to trade, and while I feel they have stretched their meager war chest astonishingly far, at some point, our worries will be valid. Anyway, part of my pushback is that I just really don’t think Hardaway and one first rounder gets it done.

But sure – in a perfect world, Caruso is a player I would love to have on the team.

[KillerLeft]

I am generally very pro defensive players, partially because a year ago we hardly had any, but sending out Timmy for Thybulle might be overkill.  Where I think DJJ straddles the line of being a real negative offensively, Thybulle is well over it.

Yeah, I am not arguing for Thybulle. I HATE him. I just skimmed through the thread and thought he was one of the only names I read that seemed at all realistic. I would rather have Hardaway, personally, but I know that’s not a conversation anyone is interested in having. I have resigned myself to the idea that we are watching Hardaway’s final games in Dallas during this postseason.

[KillerLeft]

I know it’s not totally forgotten, but we have kind of stopped talking about the thing I was most excited about coming into this year: the fact that the Mavericks have gotten much younger.

Call me crazy, but I really kind of want to see what the team looks like with Hardy and O-Max in the rotation, and I think their chance is coming faster than people realize. What if they get in the swing of things and this team can improve without giving anything up? What if the team is able to maintain some continuity for a few years and build up that stockpile of draft picks again?

I know it’s tempting to look for the “final piece” when the team is as close as we now understand it is, and I also know that the Kyrie Irving timeline is part of the equation, but I confess that I am really excited about the team being this young.

[Dundalis]

I think you're sleeping on Exum. There's a lot of recency bias on him in these discussions (not just you), and I am in the opposite camp. It wasn't so long ago that he was seen here as the IDEAL 3rd guard to rotate with Luka and Kyrie, because of his skills, his improved shooting, and his defense.

He got injured. While he's healed enough to play, I am guessing he's still a bit hobbled, impacting his effectiveness and shooting in the moment. And now he's seen as yesterdays news, readily discardable.

But I'm guessing the Mavs see him through a different lens than right now, and rightly so. In addition, I suspect that he will at some point again look like the guy we thought was the ideal 3rd guard.

If the Mavs trade THJ for Caruso (which is far from a given, of course, but sticking with the scenario), I find the DS concept valueless. Won't miss THJ. Won't wish we had someone like him. Will be comfortable if the shots are spread around, with multiple players who can hit a 3. Thinking PJW might be even better next year, and need to shoot more, making it all moot (as there's only 1 ball). Will be glad to have plenty of defenders and both-end players at all times, rather than adding matadors.

One other note in general - because of the hard cap issue re Mavs overall payroll, if they are working on a path to more salary for DJJ, those final minimum salary slots will have to either go to players on pure one-year deals, or to players who are rookie, or entering 2nd or 3rd year. Otherwise the minimum salary uses up more of the room under the hard cap, of which they might be needing every bit they can get. The point being, players who are outside those limits probably won't end up on their radar because of the payroll impact. Gotta keep their eye on the target -- DJJ.

The big factor to take away around Exum, is that he cannot be relied upon to play starter minutes, even if one of our two stars is out injured. That's what got him hurt in the first place. He's a guy you pencil in for around 20 mins per game and when healthy he will give you everything you want in a 3rd guard IMO. But you need to limit him to those mins no matter the circumstances because it's pretty clear his body can't handle that load, which is what primarily took him out of the league in the first place.

I might have been right there with you two months ago, but I actually think DJJ is a better POA defender. I think he’s good enough at it to where you’d be giving up some of your defensive versatility with Caruso. 

Before this season, I wouldn’t have thought DJJ could handle that role consistently, but with so many big ball handlers in the league right now, he ends up there more often than not, and he can even keep up with some of the smaller guys, which is great, because he smothers them with his length. But, he gives you the option of moving him off of the ball where he can still wreck havoc in situations wherein Luka is able to handle one of the guards.

If you switch him out for Caruso, you are stuck with Caruso on a backcourt player whether they are good enough to justify using your best defender on them or not. This leaves Dončić stuck guarding threes and fours all the time, even when they are Paul George types. Trust me, I get that there’s an argument to be made about the offensive benefits of Caruso. A couple of months ago, I would have thought exactly as you are, wanting to get quicker and thinking of Luka more overtly as a forward. 

Idk… watching this defensive length that Dallas has working is winning me over. I am very close to just accepting and believing, finally, that Jones Jr is a special defensive player and the perfect fit on this team. I just think he gives you options that Caruso wouldn’t, matchup wise.

I would be thrilled to have Caruso as the third guard behind Dončić and Kyrie Irving, but again, I think his britches are a little bigger than that.

The way Gafford and PJ have not just played, but also allowed other players like DJJ to lock into place has been something to see. DJJ was a solid but not particularly elite defender when he's your primary do it all wing defensive piece, but when you lock him into a role next to essentially a bigger version of himself and consistent rim protection throughout the game, all of a sudden his defensive performance takes a big leap. He couldn't make a mistake before, now he can and someone else erases it. All his strengths as a defender are amplified. Same with PJ locking into this lineup when you look at his defense vs his defense with the Hornets. Yeah he might be more motivation playing for us, but it's more than that, his defensive strengths are significantly amplified playing with DJJ and Lively/Gafford vs playing with less ideal defensive fits. Obviously when players play with better fits offensively or defensively, their performance increases, but it's just almost unbelievable the size of the improvement. I'd be interested to know how often a team goes from a near bottom 5 defense to a top 5 defense within the confines of the same season over as significant a sample size. It's got to be a pretty rare occurrence.

[Branduil]

Feels clear to me that the ideal trade would somehow consolidate THJ, Hardy, and Exum into a single player who could be reliably useful as our guard off the bench.

[MAVS-SLO]

If Schroeder and Kleber can get over their beef, I think THJ for Schroeder would be a decent deal for the Mavs. You create the extra space to re-sign DJJ and you get the needed 3rd ballhandler that you know won´t shrink in the big moments.

I think the biggest problem with Schroeder is his shooting and off-ball play.

If we are targeting a guard i would much rather ask about Tyus Jones.

Caruso is probably too expensive.

[Halfnir]

DJJ was a solid but not particularly elite defender when he's your primary do it all wing defensive piece, but when you lock him into a role next to essentially a bigger version of himself and consistent rim protection throughout the game, all of a sudden his defensive performance takes a big leap. He couldn't make a mistake before, now he can and someone else erases it. All his strengths as a defender are amplified.

Very good point, this is so important when assessing defensive performance of a player. Defence never happens in a vacuum. A team that plays strong help defence and has capable rim protectors allows wing defenders to overplay aggressively on defence without having to worry too much about getting beat. Stick the same aggressive wing defender in a team with Dwight Powell (sorry) at C and he will look like a turnstile on defense because opponents will blow by and score.

[Mavs2021]

I think the biggest problem with Schroeder is his shooting and off-ball play.

If we are targeting a guard i would much rather ask about Tyus Jones.

Caruso is probably too expensive.

We have enough guys that play off ball we need somebody on ball that can take minutes off Luka and Kyrie. Jones will cost you a lot more than just THJ.

[Chicagojk]

I expect Hardaway to be moved but there is a case to be made that it is best to keep him around as an expiring contract at the trade deadline. Especially if interest in him is weak. Mva have been willing to move him the past two seasons. I expect they had ver minimal interest. What happens if you still need to give up an asset or take back a lesser longer non desirable contract. Would it be keep him? Treat him like Evan Fournier in NYC.

I think he is moved. I also don’t think there will be many teams anxious to jump on him though.

[DallasMaverick]

I expect Hardaway to be moved but there is a case to be made that it is best to keep him around as an expiring contract at the trade deadline.  Especially if interest in him is weak.  Mva have been willing to move him the past two seasons.  I expect they had ver minimal interest.  What happens if you still need to give up an asset or take back a lesser longer non desirable contract.  Would it be keep him?  Treat him like Evan Fournier in NYC.

I think he is moved.  I also don’t think there will be many teams anxious to jump on him though.

…which brings up an interesting question: 

What will Timmy’s next contract look like? MLE? Tax-MLE? Vet min?

We had a similar discussion about Christian Wood. Several people believed he would get a substantial, over-MLE contract. But in the end, it was vet min.

I’ll go out on a limb and predict somewhere between MLE and Tax-MLE. The NBA still places a higher value on offense than defense. And he’s a positive in the locker room, good for team chemistry.

[mvossman]

Oh, for some reason, I thought your scenario was an either/or with Caruso/DJJ. Sorry, it has been a long day.

Yeah, I am a fan of Caruso the player. I obviously would like him to be on the team if there were an easy path. I guess I’m just not as sure as you that switching him out with Jones, even just in the starting lineup, what have the impact necessary to justify giving up ANOTHER distant future first. I really don’t like the idea of pissing away more picks. I think I’d rather just find out what the team will look like, as is, only with a training camp and a few more months together before I did anything like that.

Don’t get me wrong, there are probably moves that would tempt me to give up a pick over the summer, I just don’t have that vibe on Caruso at the moment, personally, but I also think it would take more than one pick to snag him. We have been saying for years that the Mavericks are running out of assets to trade, and while I feel they have stretched their meager war chest astonishingly far, at some point, our worries will be valid. Anyway, part of my pushback is that I just really don’t think Hardaway and one first rounder gets it done.

But sure – in a perfect world, Caruso is a player I would love to have on the team.

I'm both on the fence whether we should trade a first this offseason, and on the fence whether it should be for a DJJ upgrade or a Timmy upgrade.  If we make it past OKC (and I think we will) I think we are going to find in our next series that we are not at the level of true contender yet (although I am really surprised how much trouble Denver is having with Minn).  One point of clarification, I think we can trade 25 this coming offseason as opposed to a distant first.

[Branduil]

A "shooter" who shoots 35% on threes, has no other skills and plays no defense is not getting the MLE. Unless he dramatically turns things around next season he'll be lucky to get taxpayer MLE money

[mvossman]

The way Gafford and PJ have not just played, but also allowed other players like DJJ to lock into place has been something to see. DJJ was a solid but not particularly elite defender when he's your primary do it all wing defensive piece, but when you lock him into a role next to essentially a bigger version of himself and consistent rim protection throughout the game, all of a sudden his defensive performance takes a big leap. He couldn't make a mistake before, now he can and someone else erases it. All his strengths as a defender are amplified. Same with PJ locking into this lineup when you look at his defense vs his defense with the Hornets. Yeah he might be more motivation playing for us, but it's more than that, his defensive strengths are significantly amplified playing with DJJ and Lively/Gafford vs playing with less ideal defensive fits. Obviously when players play with better fits offensively or defensively, their performance increases, but it's just almost unbelievable the size of the improvement. I'd be interested to know how often a team goes from a near bottom 5 defense to a top 5 defense within the confines of the same season over as significant a sample size. It's got to be a pretty rare occurrence.

I think it was a similar experience for DFS.  I think he spent most of his career here on a bit of an island defensively, and when we brought in Bullock (before he fell off a cliff) it gave Dorian some help and he probably had his best season defensively.

[Scott41theMavs]

I think Caruso can handle big wings better than you would think.  I don't think you would be giving up much versatility.  And as great as a defensive player DJJ is, I think he has a fairly negative impact on the other side of the ball.  I know you have been frustrated in the past with our limited spacing, and having both PJ and DJJ in the starting lineup is a big part of that problem.  

Plus, it would be really nice to have DJJ come off the bench as our primary backup forward.

This view is ignoring what was pointed out earlier - a significant part of retaining DJJ on the cheap is role. The Mavs don't likely get to do that if their proposal is to bring him off the bench, which brings it back to the either/or.

[mvossman]

A "shooter" who shoots 35% on threes, has no other skills and plays no defense is not getting the MLE. Unless he dramatically turns things around next season he'll be lucky to get taxpayer MLE money

He scored 14 points a game on 35% 3 point shooting in Atlanta, and was 10th in 6th man of the year.  Thats when he got his first big contract.  This season (after a terrible second half) he scored 14 points a game on 35% 3 point shooting and was 9th in 6th man of the year (and running top 2 or 3 the first half of the season).  He was a lot younger then, and teams have to be smarter with contracts, but he is still a scorer that will get you 15 a game with decent efficiency.  I think the tax MLE will be his floor, and if he has any kind of rebound (more likely on another team) I could easily see him get the full MLE.

[SleepingHero]

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
The Toronto Raptors are expected to trade Bruce Brown by next month, per @SmithRaps

[mvossman]

This view is ignoring what was pointed out earlier - a significant part of retaining DJJ on the cheap is role. The Mavs don't likely get to do that if their proposal is to bring him off the bench, which brings it back to the either/or.

I think there are some assumptions there.  Don't know what kind of offers DJJ is going to get, or how loyal he will be regardless of role.  I'm not sure that starting is that important to him as long as he gets consistent minutes here (a statement he explicitly made earlier this season).

There is also a good chance that Timmy + first doesn't get Caruso.  So would you do Green + first for Caruso and spend a second or two to dump Timmy so we have plenty of room to get DJJ?

[Chicagojk]

…which brings up an interesting question: 

What will Timmy’s next contract look like? MLE? Tax-MLE? Vet min?

We had a similar discussion about Christian Wood. Several people believed he would get a substantial, over-MLE contract. But in the end, it was vet min.

I’ll go out on a limb and predict somewhere between MLE and Tax-MLE. The NBA still places a higher value on offense than defense. And he’s a positive in the locker room, good for team chemistry.

If I had to guess, I would think he is in below the MLE.   He has another year, but I could certainly see him getting squeezed.  Just look at this offseason, Buddy Heild, Alec Burks, I believe Fournier all all free.    Malik Monk is going to get paid.    Clarkson and Herro may be available via trade.   I am sure there are other names.   I could see a market that dries up for Hardaway where he takes less than his skill deserves.   How many teams will actively look to spend this money on a scorer/shooter.   Someone will get left out.

[Mavs2021]

I'm both on the fence whether we should trade a first this offseason, and on the fence whether it should be for a DJJ upgrade or a Timmy upgrade.  If we make it past OKC (and I think we will) I think we are going to find in our next series that we are not at the level of true contender yet (although I am really surprised how much trouble Denver is having with Minn).

I have no feeling for how a Minny series would go, but I´m pretty confident we could hang with Denver. We beat them at their best, during a 16-2 winning stretch, where they only lost to us in regulation. Jokic was +10, but we also held him to 16-11-8, and Murray led them with 23 pts. That was healthy Murray.

First things first. Let´s end the season of the Thunder.

[SleepingHero]

…which brings up an interesting question: 

What will Timmy’s next contract look like? MLE? Tax-MLE? Vet min?

We had a similar discussion about Christian Wood. Several people believed he would get a substantial, over-MLE contract. But in the end, it was vet min.

I’ll go out on a limb and predict somewhere between MLE and Tax-MLE. The NBA still places a higher value on offense than defense. And he’s a positive in the locker room, good for team chemistry.

I think he's probably looking at 5-7 mil a year but if he's going to continue on this trajectory more than likely a vet min. All depends on next season and how he performs.

If he's back to 16ppg on 40% 3pt shooting I can see him getting close to MLE, say 3/41 mil. If he is truly washed next year and is barely getting minutes then he's on his way to vet mins.