Although the Mavs have been extremely pleased with the performance of rookie center Derrick Lively, in the finals he's going up against one time All-Star Kristaps Porzingis, one inch taller and seven NBA seasons more experienced.
One Celtics fan downplayed Lively's impact: He ha"He
"He hasn't had a huge impact, that's disingenuous. 8 and 8 is not a huge impact. Unless you measure impact as catching and finishing 3 lobs per game."
Am I guilty of overt homerism thinking the center matchup will be a plus for the Mavs?
WAB 8 and 8 is not a huge impact.
Unless you measure impact exclusively as catching and finishing 3 lobs per game.
(06-05-2024, 08:44 AM)WildArkieBoy Wrote: Although the Mavs have been extremely pleased with the performance of rookie center Derrick Lively, in the finals he's going up against one time All-Star Kristaps Porzingis, one inch taller and seven NBA seasons more experienced.
One Celtics fan downplayed Lively's impact: He ha"He
"He hasn't had a huge impact, that's disingenuous. 8 and 8 is not a huge impact. Unless you measure impact as catching and finishing 3 lobs per game."
Am I guilty of overt homerism thinking the center matchup will be a plus for the Mavs?
WAB
Nope, I think we all hope Lively will continue to be a huge positive in this series, as he has been in all the previous series.
If he’s not better than Porzingis, maybe not scoring wise, but on defense, the Mavs are in some trouble here.
Looking at KP's stats, he does seem to be able to get his points in most games. But I've also noticed that his +/- is just all over the map. I guess what this says, is that he can be really bad defensively depending on the matchup.
In a seven-game series with KP at center, I would like to think the Mavs can figure him out. I think the combination of Lively and Kleber are capable of making him a non-factor. But this may be wishful thinking if he's knocking down 3-pointers.
The media has predicted 3 different centers to take advantage of Lively's youth, but I'd say he has held his own (and more) against Zubac, Holmgren (ROY candidate) and Golbert (DPOY).
(06-05-2024, 09:17 AM)Winter Wrote: ...But I've also noticed that his +/- is just all over the map. I guess what this says, is that he can be really bad defensively depending on the matchup...
I used to do this to Kam all the time. I haven't been +/- statement triggered in a long time! I think that means that I've been reading the board a lot more lately!
BUT...
Maybe a more accurate statement is "His +/- is all over the map. I guess what that says is that sometimes the lineups he's in get outscored and sometimes they don't," or "it appears that the lineups he plays in are inconsistent," or "it appears that his scoring is consistent but that the lineups he plays in aren't consistently winning their minutes," or " even though his scoring his consistent, the lineups he's in don't consistently win their minutes."
(06-05-2024, 09:30 AM)fifteenth Wrote: I used to do this to Kam all the time. I haven't been +/- statement triggered in a long time! I think that means that I've been reading the board a lot more lately!
BUT...
Maybe a more accurate statement is "His +/- is all over the map. I guess what that says is that sometimes the lineups he's in get outscored and sometimes they don't," or "it appears that the lineups he plays in are inconsistent," or "it appears that his scoring is consistent but that the lineups he plays in aren't consistently winning their minutes," or " even though his scoring his consistent, the lineups he's in don't consistently win their minutes."
Yeah I don't care for plus minus stats as they can be very misleading. I don't take much stock in them other than Lively. His are very visible and consistent. The majority of players, it just depends on who you get to play with and at what time. I don't see Luka lead our plus minus every game, but he's clearly the best player on the team and maybe in the world.
(06-05-2024, 09:39 AM)BigDirk41 Wrote: Yeah I don't care for plus minus stats as they can be very misleading. I don't take much stock in them other than Lively. His are very visible and consistent. The majority of players, it just depends on who you get to play with and at what time. I don't see Luka lead our plus minus every game, but he's clearly the best player on the team and maybe in the world.
I think the data is super interesting. And people do interesting things with the data. But I don't think it's easy to make quick, accurate statements about individual players from +/- without digging into what's going on with the lineups. Individual plus/minus reports the scoring differential of the lineups that a particular player played in for a particular stretch, game or games.
(06-05-2024, 09:45 AM)fifteenth Wrote: I think the data is super interesting. And people do interesting things with the data. But I don't think it's easy to make quick, accurate statements about individual players from +/- without digging into what's going on with the lineups. Individual plus/minus reports the scoring differential of the lineups that a particular player played in for a particular stretch, game or games.
Absolutely. I'm just too lazy to articulate it like that..lol.
06-05-2024, 09:54 AM (This post was last modified: 06-05-2024, 09:55 AM by Winter.)
(06-05-2024, 09:39 AM)BigDirk41 Wrote: Yeah I don't care for plus minus stats as they can be very misleading. I don't take much stock in them other than Lively.
Sounds a little like confirmation bias, no? It's meaningful if it's Lively, but otherwise not so meaningful? I understand that thinking though. I do the same thing with that stat.
The +/- minus might be more relevant here in this case since we are talking about playing the same opponent for several games. The personnel and matchups may be the same and we may get to witness how it changes with game-by-game adjustments.
(06-05-2024, 08:44 AM)WildArkieBoy Wrote: Although the Mavs have been extremely pleased with the performance of rookie center Derrick Lively, in the finals he's going up against one time All-Star Kristaps Porzingis, one inch taller and seven NBA seasons more experienced.
One Celtics fan downplayed Lively's impact: He ha"He
"He hasn't had a huge impact, that's disingenuous. 8 and 8 is not a huge impact. Unless you measure impact as catching and finishing 3 lobs per game."
Am I guilty of overt homerism thinking the center matchup will be a plus for the Mavs?
WAB 8 and 8 is not a huge impact.
Unless you measure impact exclusively as catching and finishing 3 lobs per game.
The Mavs have two advantages against the C’s. Lukai and the Center rotation.
We expect Luka and Kai to at least be 2 of the best 3 on the floor overall but certainly the best guards. Gaff-Lively-Maxi have to be better than KP-Horford-Kornet.
2 different styles - Mavs need to impose their will and they will win.
Just asking, but is there a scenario where Maxi plays the 4 with Gaff or Lively at the 5?
If it's done while Kyrie rests, and Exum subs in, then you could have a really big team on the floor. Just spit ballin' while waiting on the game to start, trying to see if there are ways to force BOS to react to DAL lineups.
(06-05-2024, 10:15 AM)michaeltex Wrote: Just asking, but is there a scenario where Maxi plays the 4 with Gaff or Lively at the 5?
If it's done while Kyrie rests, and Exum subs in, then you could have a really big team on the floor. Just spit ballin' while waiting on the game to start, trying to see if there are ways to force BOS to react to DAL lineups.
Maxi is the backup 4 to PJ, so yes he will play next to Gaff and Lively in this series.
He’ll also play Center next to PJ. He‘ll also play 4 in-between Lively and PJ when they go super big.
(06-05-2024, 08:44 AM)WildArkieBoy Wrote: One Celtics fan downplayed Lively's impact: He ha"He
"He hasn't had a huge impact, that's disingenuous. 8 and 8 is not a huge impact. Unless you measure impact as catching and finishing 3 lobs per game."
I just wanted to observe that this Celtics fan is evidently a basketball imbecile.
(06-05-2024, 09:54 AM)Winter Wrote: Sounds a little like confirmation bias, no? It's meaningful if it's Lively, but otherwise not so meaningful? I understand that thinking though. I do the same thing with that stat.
The +/- minus might be more relevant here in this case since we are talking about playing the same opponent for several games. The personnel and matchups may be the same and we may get to witness how it changes with game-by-game adjustments.
Well I don't pay attention to plus minus on other teams so the Mavs are really all I have to go off. I see a lot of our box scores where Luka will have a bad plus minus. Sometimes they make sense and sometimes they don't. A lot of role players plus minus just depends on if they are in with Luka and Kyrie together or just one of them or maybe a short spell without either. Lively consistently has a high positive plus minus and to my eyes, he makes a significant impact when he plays. That's all I'm really saying. There's just too many variables imo for it to be a end all be all stat.
(06-05-2024, 01:10 PM)BigDirk41 Wrote: Well I don't pay attention to plus minus on other teams so the Mavs are really all I have to go off. I see a lot of our box scores where Luka will have a bad plus minus. Sometimes they make sense and sometimes they don't. A lot of role players plus minus just depends on if they are in with Luka and Kyrie together or just one of them or maybe a short spell without either. Lively consistently has a high positive plus minus and to my eyes, he makes a significant impact when he plays. That's all I'm really saying. There's just too many variables imo for it to be a end all be all stat.
I agree that +/- requires some context, and at times it's used without that context to be misleading, even unintentionally.
But, it does indicate something, even in just a one game sample size. Understanding what it indicates isn't anywhere close to a perfect science, but I actually think opinion on its value has swung too far in the opposite direction, and that people have become a little too dismissive of it in recent years. The goal is to outscore the other team, after all.
At the end of the day, the eye test is what really matters. If not, they wouldn't bother playing the games. The more educated the eye, the more it learns.. Usually, I feel like I can at least theorize why the +/- is what it is by watching, so I have developed a healthy respect for it as a tool to be used in tandem with what I think I'm seeing. There are times when the +/- makes me question what my eyes saw (and rightfully so), and there are other times when my eyes are so sure what I watched that I'm left looking for hidden context to explain it. But, it means something.
At the end of the day, the stats that matter are Ws and Ls.