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+--- Thread: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? (/showthread.php?tid=3209)
Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - WildArkieBoy - 06-05-2024
Although the Mavs have been extremely pleased with the performance of rookie center Derrick Lively, in the finals he's going up against one time All-Star Kristaps Porzingis, one inch taller and seven NBA seasons more experienced.
One Celtics fan downplayed Lively's impact:
He ha"He
"He hasn't had a huge impact, that's disingenuous. 8 and 8 is not a huge impact. Unless you measure impact as catching and finishing 3 lobs per game."
Am I guilty of overt homerism thinking the center matchup will be a plus for the Mavs?
WAB
8 and 8 is not a huge impact.
Unless you measure impact exclusively as catching and finishing 3 lobs per game.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - KillerLeft - 06-05-2024
(06-05-2024, 08:44 AM)WildArkieBoy Wrote: Although the Mavs have been extremely pleased with the performance of rookie center Derrick Lively, in the finals he's going up against one time All-Star Kristaps Porzingis, one inch taller and seven NBA seasons more experienced.
One Celtics fan downplayed Lively's impact:
He ha"He
"He hasn't had a huge impact, that's disingenuous. 8 and 8 is not a huge impact. Unless you measure impact as catching and finishing 3 lobs per game."
Am I guilty of overt homerism thinking the center matchup will be a plus for the Mavs?
WAB
Nope, I think we all hope Lively will continue to be a huge positive in this series, as he has been in all the previous series.
If he’s not better than Porzingis, maybe not scoring wise, but on defense, the Mavs are in some trouble here.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - Winter - 06-05-2024
Looking at KP's stats, he does seem to be able to get his points in most games. But I've also noticed that his +/- is just all over the map. I guess what this says, is that he can be really bad defensively depending on the matchup.
In a seven-game series with KP at center, I would like to think the Mavs can figure him out. I think the combination of Lively and Kleber are capable of making him a non-factor. But this may be wishful thinking if he's knocking down 3-pointers.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - michaeltex - 06-05-2024
The media has predicted 3 different centers to take advantage of Lively's youth, but I'd say he has held his own (and more) against Zubac, Holmgren (ROY candidate) and Golbert (DPOY).
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - fifteenth - 06-05-2024
(06-05-2024, 09:17 AM)Winter Wrote: ...But I've also noticed that his +/- is just all over the map. I guess what this says, is that he can be really bad defensively depending on the matchup...
I used to do this to Kam all the time. I haven't been +/- statement triggered in a long time! I think that means that I've been reading the board a lot more lately!
BUT...
Maybe a more accurate statement is "His +/- is all over the map. I guess what that says is that sometimes the lineups he's in get outscored and sometimes they don't," or "it appears that the lineups he plays in are inconsistent," or "it appears that his scoring is consistent but that the lineups he plays in aren't consistently winning their minutes," or " even though his scoring his consistent, the lineups he's in don't consistently win their minutes."
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - BigDirk41 - 06-05-2024
(06-05-2024, 09:30 AM)fifteenth Wrote: I used to do this to Kam all the time. I haven't been +/- statement triggered in a long time! I think that means that I've been reading the board a lot more lately!
BUT...
Maybe a more accurate statement is "His +/- is all over the map. I guess what that says is that sometimes the lineups he's in get outscored and sometimes they don't," or "it appears that the lineups he plays in are inconsistent," or "it appears that his scoring is consistent but that the lineups he plays in aren't consistently winning their minutes," or " even though his scoring his consistent, the lineups he's in don't consistently win their minutes."
Yeah I don't care for plus minus stats as they can be very misleading. I don't take much stock in them other than Lively. His are very visible and consistent. The majority of players, it just depends on who you get to play with and at what time. I don't see Luka lead our plus minus every game, but he's clearly the best player on the team and maybe in the world.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - dirkfansince1998 - 06-05-2024
Quick reminder that Lively has played in more playoff games than KP. 16-14. And KP never played past the first round.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - fifteenth - 06-05-2024
(06-05-2024, 09:39 AM)BigDirk41 Wrote: Yeah I don't care for plus minus stats as they can be very misleading. I don't take much stock in them other than Lively. His are very visible and consistent. The majority of players, it just depends on who you get to play with and at what time. I don't see Luka lead our plus minus every game, but he's clearly the best player on the team and maybe in the world.
I think the data is super interesting. And people do interesting things with the data. But I don't think it's easy to make quick, accurate statements about individual players from +/- without digging into what's going on with the lineups. Individual plus/minus reports the scoring differential of the lineups that a particular player played in for a particular stretch, game or games.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - BigDirk41 - 06-05-2024
(06-05-2024, 09:45 AM)fifteenth Wrote: I think the data is super interesting. And people do interesting things with the data. But I don't think it's easy to make quick, accurate statements about individual players from +/- without digging into what's going on with the lineups. Individual plus/minus reports the scoring differential of the lineups that a particular player played in for a particular stretch, game or games.
Absolutely. I'm just too lazy to articulate it like that..lol.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - ballsrchr - 06-05-2024
No! I think Lively will outplay Porzingis.
Lively will give effort, speed, power, range--and surprising skill for a rookie.
Porzingis plays with finess--and does not like to go against all that Lively offers.
PLUS we have Gafford who who will swap out with Lively and will require that Porzingis respond in a different way. Keep him working.
However...Gafford will need help. Somebody with range and skill. This is where Maxie, DJJ, and PJW come in.
Porzingis will not have an easy row to hoe...
Not saying we will either. Just saying that Boston is not going to easily roll over the Mavs.
AND I don't really pay much attention to +/- stats. This mostly depends on rotations and game plans.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - fifteenth - 06-05-2024
(06-05-2024, 09:48 AM)BigDirk41 Wrote: Absolutely. I'm just too lazy to articulate it like that..lol.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - Winter - 06-05-2024
(06-05-2024, 09:39 AM)BigDirk41 Wrote: Yeah I don't care for plus minus stats as they can be very misleading. I don't take much stock in them other than Lively.
Sounds a little like confirmation bias, no? It's meaningful if it's Lively, but otherwise not so meaningful? I understand that thinking though. I do the same thing with that stat.
The +/- minus might be more relevant here in this case since we are talking about playing the same opponent for several games. The personnel and matchups may be the same and we may get to witness how it changes with game-by-game adjustments.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - Smitty - 06-05-2024
(06-05-2024, 08:44 AM)WildArkieBoy Wrote: Although the Mavs have been extremely pleased with the performance of rookie center Derrick Lively, in the finals he's going up against one time All-Star Kristaps Porzingis, one inch taller and seven NBA seasons more experienced.
One Celtics fan downplayed Lively's impact:
He ha"He
"He hasn't had a huge impact, that's disingenuous. 8 and 8 is not a huge impact. Unless you measure impact as catching and finishing 3 lobs per game."
Am I guilty of overt homerism thinking the center matchup will be a plus for the Mavs?
WAB
8 and 8 is not a huge impact.
Unless you measure impact exclusively as catching and finishing 3 lobs per game.
The Mavs have two advantages against the C’s. Lukai and the Center rotation.
We expect Luka and Kai to at least be 2 of the best 3 on the floor overall but certainly the best guards. Gaff-Lively-Maxi have to be better than KP-Horford-Kornet.
2 different styles - Mavs need to impose their will and they will win.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - michaeltex - 06-05-2024
Just asking, but is there a scenario where Maxi plays the 4 with Gaff or Lively at the 5?
If it's done while Kyrie rests, and Exum subs in, then you could have a really big team on the floor. Just spit ballin' while waiting on the game to start, trying to see if there are ways to force BOS to react to DAL lineups.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - Smitty - 06-05-2024
This was Nick Wright’s player rankings in this series and I agree with it.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - Smitty - 06-05-2024
(06-05-2024, 10:15 AM)michaeltex Wrote: Just asking, but is there a scenario where Maxi plays the 4 with Gaff or Lively at the 5?
If it's done while Kyrie rests, and Exum subs in, then you could have a really big team on the floor. Just spit ballin' while waiting on the game to start, trying to see if there are ways to force BOS to react to DAL lineups.
Maxi is the backup 4 to PJ, so yes he will play next to Gaff and Lively in this series.
He’ll also play Center next to PJ. He‘ll also play 4 in-between Lively and PJ when they go super big.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - Scott41theMavs - 06-05-2024
(06-05-2024, 08:44 AM)WildArkieBoy Wrote: One Celtics fan downplayed Lively's impact:
He ha"He
"He hasn't had a huge impact, that's disingenuous. 8 and 8 is not a huge impact. Unless you measure impact as catching and finishing 3 lobs per game."
I just wanted to observe that this Celtics fan is evidently a basketball imbecile.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - BigDirk41 - 06-05-2024
(06-05-2024, 09:54 AM)Winter Wrote: Sounds a little like confirmation bias, no? It's meaningful if it's Lively, but otherwise not so meaningful? I understand that thinking though. I do the same thing with that stat.
The +/- minus might be more relevant here in this case since we are talking about playing the same opponent for several games. The personnel and matchups may be the same and we may get to witness how it changes with game-by-game adjustments.
Well I don't pay attention to plus minus on other teams so the Mavs are really all I have to go off. I see a lot of our box scores where Luka will have a bad plus minus. Sometimes they make sense and sometimes they don't. A lot of role players plus minus just depends on if they are in with Luka and Kyrie together or just one of them or maybe a short spell without either. Lively consistently has a high positive plus minus and to my eyes, he makes a significant impact when he plays. That's all I'm really saying. There's just too many variables imo for it to be a end all be all stat.
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - BigDirk41 - 06-05-2024
(06-05-2024, 10:15 AM)Smitty Wrote: This was Nick Wright’s player rankings in this series and I agree with it.
Yeah I can't really argue with that. I agree with it
RE: Will Seasoned Veteran Porzingis Outplay Rookie Lively? - KillerLeft - 06-05-2024
(06-05-2024, 01:10 PM)BigDirk41 Wrote: Well I don't pay attention to plus minus on other teams so the Mavs are really all I have to go off. I see a lot of our box scores where Luka will have a bad plus minus. Sometimes they make sense and sometimes they don't. A lot of role players plus minus just depends on if they are in with Luka and Kyrie together or just one of them or maybe a short spell without either. Lively consistently has a high positive plus minus and to my eyes, he makes a significant impact when he plays. That's all I'm really saying. There's just too many variables imo for it to be a end all be all stat.
I agree that +/- requires some context, and at times it's used without that context to be misleading, even unintentionally.
But, it does indicate something, even in just a one game sample size. Understanding what it indicates isn't anywhere close to a perfect science, but I actually think opinion on its value has swung too far in the opposite direction, and that people have become a little too dismissive of it in recent years. The goal is to outscore the other team, after all.
At the end of the day, the eye test is what really matters. If not, they wouldn't bother playing the games. The more educated the eye, the more it learns.. Usually, I feel like I can at least theorize why the +/- is what it is by watching, so I have developed a healthy respect for it as a tool to be used in tandem with what I think I'm seeing. There are times when the +/- makes me question what my eyes saw (and rightfully so), and there are other times when my eyes are so sure what I watched that I'm left looking for hidden context to explain it. But, it means something.
At the end of the day, the stats that matter are Ws and Ls.