Trade & FA 2023-24: Sexton On the Market? | ORL Likes Hartenstein?

[DanSchwartzgan]

I think the best way to lose DJJ is a THJ trade in June whose end result is someone else getting bigger money, and taking minutes. And then DJJ is offered the leftovers in July.

I think that if DJJ is the priority, he has to be treated that way. Resolve his situation with an agreement that is a TxMLE, or with an agreement that getting $__M to pay him is acceptable to him, and keeping him in the loop all the way.

I think THJ gets traded rather than kept. I have no feel for what that will look like, or what it will cost 

The good news is under the new rules Dallas will largely know where it stands with DJJ during the period of time a June deal would be done.  We've all experienced the reality that nothing is done until its done, but Dallas and Jones Jr. could come to an agreement in June while Dallas is also getting good value for THJ.  You have been as big an advocate as anyone that a TP MLE contract will be enough.  If true, I'm not sure a THJ trade 'has' to change that.

The key to not pissing off Jones is to trade for someone who doesn't threaten his playing time (as PT is the key to getting him to agree to a 1+1 with a delayed pay day).  Trading for a scoring sixth man type would be one way of accomplishing that.  Trading for someone like Dorian would certainly kill any good will (as you suggest).

On a related note, the NBA Front Office guys (Keith Smith and Trevor Lane) had a mock draft the other day.  Portland traded Malcom Brogdon into Utah's space and received pick #29.  I'm not sure one year of Brogdon at $22.5mm is dramatically better value than one year of THJ at $16.2mm.  These guys aren't idiots and they let the deal go through.  So, maybe there is hope for cap clearing THJ deal that brings back an asset.  I still think a more realistic version to get Utah to bite on taking THJ is swapping assets (like our 2025 pick for their 2024 pick) rather than us receiving an asset.  Cap space will be at a greater premium than this Brogdon trade realizes.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I wouldn't say Green can replace DJJ atm. Isn't what most complain about with Green other than the screen navigation stuff his size? He can guard 1-3. DJJ easily guards 1-4 and has the athleticism to block a KD jumper at its apex which is like a top 1% no one ever does that to him type of thing.   

I think DJJ would stay here on a NT MLE deal over taking slightly more from another team. I think DJJ has proven himself as a shooter already enough that teams won't completely abandon him like a Giddey which is sufficient. DJJ still has room for development too, he's worth keeping.

Just to keep straight what I said....

I didn't advocate that Josh should replace DJJ.  I said I'd rather get value for THJ (and have Josh take on the DJJ role) than simply burn the THJ expiring (and maybe a pick) just to stand still.  It isn't about Josh vs. DJJ.  It is about Josh/Player X vs. DJJ/THJ.

As to what DJJ 'would' do, put yourself in his place.  He took a pay cut (and smaller contract than he'd had in years) to set himself up for this summer.  He chose well and his plan worked.  So, his choice now is to take a guaranteed $10mm ($5 this year and $5 next if things go south) and hope things continue to go well (and he's certainly seen things not go well in his career).  The payoff is a year from now he can get a contract that is roughly an NT MLE contract (average salary vs the actual MLE).  OR, he can get that $40mm or $50mm deal right now from someone else.  If such a deal is out there, he'd be an idiot not to take it.  Despite what we fans think people would/should do out of loyalty or fit, this is a business.  Jones and his agent are looking for the best financial situation they can get.  He may be 'open' to returning (exactly what an agent would tell him to say).  But that guarantees nothing if someone else is offering an extra $30-$40mm right now.

[Smitty]

As for Green, I like him, too, but it's more and more frustrating to me that he can't seem to find a toehold on the team. On one hand, he has emerged from the swamp of THJ/Exum as the most useful backup wing on the team this season, but on the other, I'm not seeing a clear, difference making role for him, and while yes, he's 23, he has been here a WHILE. It's just tiring.

This is a similar argument someone used recently and my response will be the same here. There are at least 5 players in this years draft that are older than Green. Had Green stayed at Arizona and been a FRP this year, would you be so eager to say he has no upside. He's 23 years old and has gotten valuable playing time against NBA competition, rather than the NCAA level or G league. 

It's his offense that's talked about most as a negative, and I agree that he needs to shoot more. It's not his role on this team - but he's a great shooter and it'd be good to get him more volume.


Josh Green | Ages 20-23 | 4,528 minutes played (223 Games)

6.4 PPG | 2.7 RBS | 1.5 AST | 0.7 STL

50.3 FG% (5.0 FGA) | 37.5 3PT% (2.1 3PA)


Dorian Finney-Smith | Ages 23-26 | 4,529 minutes played (200 Games)

6.2 PPG | 3.9 RBS | 1.0 AST | 0.7 STL

41.3 FG% (5.5 FGA) | 30.6 3PT% (2.9 3PA)


Dorian Finney-Smith | Ages 26-29 | 7,518 minutes played (Games 201-434)

10.1 PPG | 5.1 RBS | 1.7 AST | 0.9 STL

46.0 FG% (8.0 FGA) | 38.6 3PT% (5.1 3PA)


Green reminds me of DFS in the same way that they were both hesitant to shoot, DFS even a worse shooter earlier in his career, and that they both do the dirty work, hustle, glue guys - INTANGIBLES.  They play different positions and the team is structured quite differently, but I just see a career arc for Green that mimics DFS. DFS increased his volume/percentage considerably throughout the years, which made him a bigger threat on that end but we all know it was his defense that got him on the court.

Green's weakness isn't the offense to me. With more volume he'd already average 10+ PPG. It's that he's tasked with guarding the other teams best guard, is in 100 ball screens, and screen navigation is his weakest skill. He's improved every year, so I see nothing that makes me think he won't get that figured out soon. Yes, DJJ is a better POA defender than Green right now, he's 4 years older and that matters, but Green held his own against "the next MJ" last series and has the tools to be the perfect compliment to Luka for the next 8-10 years.

You said it feels like he isn't playing much in the playoffs but he's played in all 17 games, averaging 18 MPG and had the best DefRTG on the team in the WCF... At age 23.

[mvossman]

Just to keep straight what I said....

I didn't advocate that Josh should replace DJJ.  I said I'd rather get value for THJ (and have Josh take on the DJJ role) than simply burn the THJ expiring (and maybe a pick) just to stand still.  It isn't about Josh vs. DJJ.  It is about Josh/Player X vs. DJJ/THJ.

As to what DJJ 'would' do, put yourself in his place.  He took a pay cut (and smaller contract than he'd had in years) to set himself up for this summer.  He chose well and his plan worked.  So, his choice now is to take a guaranteed $10mm ($5 this year and $5 next if things go south) and hope things continue to go well (and he's certainly seen things not go well in his career).  The payoff is a year from now he can get a contract that is roughly an NT MLE contract (average salary vs the actual MLE).  OR, he can get that $40mm or $50mm deal right now from someone else.  If such a deal is out there, he'd be an idiot not to take it.  Despite what we fans think people would/should do out of loyalty or fit, this is a business.  Jones and his agent are looking for the best financial situation they can get.  He may be 'open' to returning (exactly what an agent would tell him to say).  But that guarantees nothing if someone else is offering an extra $30-$40mm right now.

I agree that if DJJ can get an MLE deal he is going to take it, whether from Mavs or someone else.  At that point I don't think its Josh/Player X vs DJJ/THJ, I think its simply Player X vs DJJ.  If you slide Green into the starting lineup you are generating a hole in the second unit that is not easily filled.  The question is can you trade for Player X that you are confident will be better than DJJ?  If not, you are simply spending an asset to move laterally other than stand pat.  Given the obvious chemistry on this team, I would rather stand pat.

[mvossman]

You said it feels like he isn't playing much in the playoffs but he's played in all 17 games, averaging 18 MPG and had the best DefRTG on the team in the WCF... At age 23.

I'm glad Green had a nice defensive run in the WCF, but his defensive rating is near the bottom of the roster for the playoffs and dead last on the season.  I like Green and think he has room for improvement given his age, but I think he is a significant downgrade from DJJ defensively, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

[F Gump]

1 The good news is under the new rules Dallas will largely know where it stands with DJJ during the period of time a June deal would be done.  We've all experienced the reality that nothing is done until its done, but Dallas and Jones Jr. could come to an agreement in June while Dallas is also getting good value for THJ. 
2 You have been as big an advocate as anyone that .  If true, I'm not sure a THJ trade 'has' to change that..

That's a good summary of what I hope they do. That would entail working with DJJ, so he perceives he is a priority for minutes and money.

My point about "a TP MLE contract will be enough" is a bit misconstrued, however. I'm not declaring it is truly enough, but rather that in the right scenario he might work with the Mavs to prioritize his return, instead of forcing moves that might be destructive to the team and its potential. As we all know (and I'm sure he or his agents do too), all the Mavs can offer for sure is the TxMLE, so maybe he will allow that to be enough if that's the only practical offer they can make. In that sort of approach, it would be vital to communicate his importance. Role and minutes would matter. I think he really likes playing alongside Luka - it's really an almost ideal NBA place for him and his skill set - and he can't get that anywhere else.

It's also important to realize that a 1+1 would guarantee he could NOT be traded this year. Another year to do more of this good stuff, then a shot at more money WITH the role that fits so well.

I don't think he wants to be Bruce Brown, who took the money and lost his spot on a contender playing off of Jokic (and may have gutted DEN's chance to repeat, by his absence and the resulting lack of depth). BB ending up in Siberia, watching rather than playing in the playoffs, and uncertain where he will be sent next.

Of course, the right trade could change the possible contract numbers, but you can't depend on that being available.

[F Gump]

One thing that doesn't get enough attention in these discussions is the issue of minutes. That's especially true when we think of THJ being used to bring back a useful player - ideally, one who can provide offense off the bench (one example would be Bogdanovic in ATL).

If they do that, who sits so that BB plays? Because trading THJ doesn't open up any minutes, since he isn't getting any.

When all are healthy, this is where they are in minutes next season
C - Gafford-Lively take all 48, and DP is the veteran backup
PF - PJW-Maxi take all 48, and can Omax force his way onto the floor? Morris is your DC (Designated Cheerleader) ... even if you limit Maxi to 20-22, PJW is only playing 26-28.
SF - DJJ-Green
SG - Kyrie-Hardy
PG - Luka-Exum

It looks to me like their ideal move is to pay the price to trade THJ into space. That then leaves 2 open roster slots (Lawson may get one of them). And it lowers their payroll significantly.

Then look at this. There would be 2 viable choices:
1 They prioritize to STAY UNDER THE TAX LINE. Leaving a cushion, they can pay DJJ up to about 9.5M, keep Lawson and Morris, and have room for a veteran ring-chasing shooter at the minimum. Being under the tax line wouldn't matter when it comes to the tax itself, but rather to the potential of a huge repeater tax bill in the upcoming years when Luke is on a supermax and some of these players are getting bumps in salary. Or ...
2 They prioritize to STAY UNDER THE APRON. In this scenario, they have room for almost an entire MLE and BAE (4.7M). Here they pay DJJ more, and use a BAE to get that shooter (or some player that has potential to help a lot).

[Mavs2021]

To me this is all pretty simple.

1. DJJ will get a MLE range offer.
2. Mavs will give it to him.

Only question is whether they can find a smart trade for THJ that will cost them minimal assets to get there or do they have to stretch-waive THJ. One of these two things will happen. DJJ is going nowhere unless somebody Bruce Brown´s him.

[F Gump]

.... or do they have to stretch-waive THJ. 

I don't think this option is a real back door, because I don't see it as tenable. 

It only gets them about 9M for DJJ, so it's uncertain if that would work for their needs in 2024.

But even more problematic is that a SW creates real payroll issues in future years, by having a significant chunk of dead money in 2026 when all of Luke, Ky, PJW, Gafford, and Maxi are up for new contracts and there may be sizable raises busting Aprons. Like most teams, they are probably going to be very averse to busting the 2nd Apron with its ensuing restrictions and penalties. Reducing that amount of possible payroll by 5.4M (after already having 2.2M sliced off, from McGee) would be a real issue.

I think they would opt to up the ante on what they will do to be rid of THJ before opting for a SW. Or DJJ will opt to stay at TxMLE, if the cost is exorbitant. Hopefully their negotiators have the skill to get where they need to go, at a reasonable price.

[rocky164]

It’s ironic now given that DJJ is virtually indispensible, starting for the western conference champs in the finals and a key to a successful offseason that on opening day and the first few weeks of the season when DJJ unexpectedly was starting, Kidd was completely roasted on this board for such a stupid decision. Unfortunately I was also in the camp criticizing both DJJ and Kidd. WOW what a difference a few months make! I’m choking down the crow now in anticipation of Mavs in 6.

[omahen]

One thing that doesn't get enough attention in these discussions is the issue of minutes. That's especially true when we think of THJ being used to bring back a useful player - ideally, one who can provide offense off the bench (one example would be Bogdanovic in ATL).

If they do that, who sits so that BB plays? Because trading THJ doesn't open up any minutes, since he isn't getting any.

When all are healthy, this is where they are in minutes next season
C - Gafford-Lively take all 48, and DP is the veteran backup
PF - PJW-Maxi take all 48, and can Omax force his way onto the floor? Morris is your DC (Designated Cheerleader)  ... even if you limit Maxi to 20-22, PJW is only playing 26-28.
SF - DJJ-Green
SG - Kyrie-Hardy
PG - Luka-Exum

It looks to me like their ideal move is to pay the price to trade THJ into space. That then leaves 2 open roster slots (Lawson may get one of them). And it lowers their payroll significantly.

The question about minutes is, would there be more available if a good third option (6th man) would be here. Would Luka and Kyrie play less? Otherwise it is I think obvious that this new guy would take most of Green/Hardy/Exum playoff minutes and our playoff bench rotation would mostly be a center, Maxi and new guy. During regular season, there will always be minutes for Hardy, Exum and Green due to injuries and less playing time by the core rotation.

If there is a viable 6th man option, then I wouldn't worry about Green/Exum and Hardy minutes. Just go for it.

[Mavs2021]

I don't think this option is a real back door, because I don't see it as tenable. 

It only gets them about 9M for DJJ, so it's uncertain if that would work for their needs in 2024.

But even more problematic is that a SW creates real payroll issues in future years, by having a significant chunk of dead money in 2026 when all of Luke, Ky, PJW, Gafford, and Maxi are up for new contracts and there may be sizable raises busting Aprons. Like most teams, they are probably going to be very averse to busting the 2nd Apron with its ensuing restrictions and penalties. Reducing that amount of possible payroll by 5.4M (after already having 2.2M sliced off, from McGee) would be a real issue.

I think they would opt to up the ante on what they will do to be rid of THJ before opting for a SW. Or DJJ will opt to stay at TxMLE, if the cost is exorbitant. Hopefully their negotiators have the skill to get where they need to go, at a reasonable price.

Oh without a doubt. My personal opinion is that they´ll trade the 2025 1st for two 2024 2nd round picks to a tanking team and then something like Micic for THJ. Works in the Mavs favour that this draft is considered trash. That means although our 2025 1st is likely not very good, it´s still a lot more attractive than two 2nd round picks in this weak draft.

[SleepingHero]

NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral)
“I'm so f*cking mad that I am not his running mate anymore... He's the most gifted player the NBA has ever seen.”

LeBron James on Kyrie Irving


https://x.com/thedunkcentral/status/1798...87241?s=46&t=Fmdr94oXagcEyy75KJqaFg

Click the link and watch the video. Lebron glazes Kyrie for 3 minutes straight.

[mvossman]

The question about minutes is, would there be more available if a good third option (6th man) would be here. Would Luka and Kyrie play less? Otherwise it is I think obvious that this new guy would take most of Green/Hardy/Exum playoff minutes and our playoff bench rotation would mostly be a center, Maxi and new guy. During regular season, there will always be minutes for Hardy, Exum and Green due to injuries and less playing time by the core rotation.

If there is a viable 6th man option, then I wouldn't worry about Green/Exum and Hardy minutes. Just go for it.

If the trade for a 6th man involves letting DJJ walk, is this still your view?  I feel like that move will make us thin on POA defenders as well as probably making us smaller and older.  It also seems to directly block Hardy.  That player would have to be significantly better than DJJ for this to make sense.

[omahen]

If the trade for a 6th man involves letting DJJ walk, is this still your view?  I feel like that move will make us thin on POA defenders as well as probably making us smaller and older.  It also seems to directly block Hardy.  That player would have to be significantly better than DJJ for this to make sense.

No, "my" main move is to resign DJJ. 6th man is the move to consider after that if there is room/assets left to do it. FGump was operating with an assumption, that we convince DJJ to sign a tMLE 1+1 deal. In that case I would look hard to upgrade THJ and if needed even additional salary for the right 6th man.

[mvossman]

No, "my" main move is to resign DJJ. 6th man is the move to consider after that if there is room/assets left to do it. FGump was operating with an assumption, that we convince DJJ to sign a tMLE 1+1 deal. In that case I would look hard to upgrade THJ and if needed even additional salary for the right 6th man.

This might be a timing issue?  His post ended with two ideas (which are not on your response), both involved paying DJJ significantly more than tax MLE.

[omahen]

This might be a timing issue?  His post ended with two ideas (which are not on your response), both involved paying DJJ significantly more than tax MLE.

Yeah, he spoke about 1+1 in his previous post. Since he mentioned Bogdanovic, I assumed we are still on the 1+1 idea. 

I think signing him to 1+1 would be a huge win for Mavs. I think it is unlikely and I would assume he would be able to get more on the market and want more from Mavs. I agree with Dans thoughts on this one. However, if they do manage to convince him to 1+1, I would use THJ contract to upgrade the bench. I wouldn't pay assets to get rid of him so I would stay under the tax. Top teams will operate with considerably higher budgets.

If 1+1 is not on the table, I would really like to target Utah capspace and #29 pick in this draft, if there is someone Mavs like. Two ways to get there - trade THJ into capspace for pick in 2025. Utah gets a pick next draft and gamble that it will be better than whatever is available at #29 this season. The alternative could be to trade Green to Utah for #29. They get a better player they might be able to snatch at #29 and Mavs get the space to resign DJJ. Than use THJ and 2025 for a bench upgrade to replace Green and THJ. 

The third option is to use THJ and 2025 and get a serviceable player on a cheap deal back. Not many options though, as we already discussed several times.

[KillerLeft]

At this point, with the Finals set to begin in two days, I feel it's masochistic to imagine DJJ playing basketball for another team next season. And, I feel like those who keep trying to suggest it's possible are sadists.

[F Gump]

The question about minutes is, would there be more available if a good third option (6th man) would be here. Would Luka and Kyrie play less? Otherwise it is I think obvious that this new guy would take most of Green/Hardy/Exum playoff minutes and our playoff bench rotation would mostly be a center, Maxi and new guy. During regular season, there will always be minutes for Hardy, Exum and Green due to injuries and less playing time by the core rotation.

If there is a viable 6th man option, then I wouldn't worry about Green/Exum and Hardy minutes. Just go for it.

Of course there would be more minutes available if you trade away half the backups. 

If you don't have minutes for Green, just trade him. His salary is too big for him to sit. That means he's also an avenue to payroll reduction, perhaps. But not sure the Mavs would really want to move him.

[F Gump]

If the trade for a 6th man involves letting DJJ walk, is this still your view?  I feel like that move will make us thin on POA defenders as well as probably making us smaller and older.  It also seems to directly block Hardy.  That player would have to be significantly better than DJJ for this to make sense.

This is a good analysis of the issue of minutes/payroll and roles that players can play. There's a ripple effect in whatever changes you make.