Trade & FA 2023-24: PHX Wants Lebron+Bronny| Jazz to Shop Collins

[BigDirk41]

Is anyone willing to eat Shamet´s contract (3/33)? I guess that´s the only way out if the Suns want to move Ayton for a bigger contract.

Hell no. I don't even like Ayton. Certainly don't want both of their contracts.

[F Gump]

Rough numbers
1 EDITED -- Because all years (even those with no guaranteed salary) count, CP3 s-w would stretched be over 5 years, at 3.16M each
2 It seems like a lock they keep Payne as the PG, on cheap 6.5M deal
3 Not doing a s-w lands them right about Apron 1, with the 5-6 players they have already under contract plus all minimums. If they also re-sign Torrey Craig (who probably costs about the big MLE of 12.2), they land around Apron 2
4 So when we pencil in s-w CP3, they have room for big MLE, or for Craig and TxMLE, plus a slew of minimums

Bottom line - PHX likely has more to do

[F Gump]

Now Shams is walking back the story a bit, painting it as an attempt to find options. "The Suns and Chris Paul are exploring multiple options, including a trade, stretching his contract, or waiving and re-signing him in free agency. Phoenix expected to discuss trades ahead of Paul’s June 28 contract date."

But some of those choices supposedly being discussed don't really move the needle for PHX at all, and others just make no sense. (For example, what does Paul have to do with the idea of stretching his contract?) I think Paul wants his money (no waiver) AND to pick a trade destination, but much easier said than done. Being absent when they need him most, in the playoffs, apparently ended their desire to cater to him.

[Mavs2021]

Should the Suns S/W CP3, they cannot resign him during that time at all (5 years). 

Per Larry Coon: 

BUT the Suns can abuse a loophole here. If they just eat CP3's 15 mil guaranteed contract, they are able to resign him at the vet min. 
Gambo (PHX version of Stein) says as such here:

https://twitter.com/gambo987/status/1666...82848?s=46&t=Fmdr94oXagcEyy75KJqaFg
https://twitter.com/gambo987/status/1666...35104?s=46&t=Fmdr94oXagcEyy75KJqaFg

I don´t see the benefit for CP3?

If they outright waive Paul, they´d be at $141M with just four players under contract. Don´t see how that creates a lot more flexibility, so CP3 would willingly forfeit $15M for no significant progress. I also seem to remember that CP3 is very critical of players voluntarily giving up money to help build teams in his function as president of the NBAPA. To me this simply suggests Suns move on and CP3 goes to the Lakers. Still a bit surprising.

[Mavs2021]

Also should scare the living crap out of Mavs fans, cause CP3 for Bertans + Bullock +#10 seems like another Cuban special.

[BigDirk41]

Also should scare the living crap out of Mavs fans, cause CP3 for Bertans + Bullock +#10 seems like another Cuban special.

You are right and that would be atrocious. Very Mavs move there.

[Jason Terry]

Rough numbers
1 Unless I'm missing something, CP3 s-w would be 5.267 x3
2 It seems like a lock they keep Payne as the PG, on cheap 6.5M deal
3 Not doing a s-w lands them right about Apron 1, with the 5-6 players they have already under contract plus all minimums. If they also re-sign Torrey Craig (who probably costs about the big MLE of 12.2), they land around Apron 2
4 So when we pencil in s-w CP3, they have room for big MLE, or for Craig and TxMLE, plus a slew of minimums

Bottom line - PHX likely has more to do

Re-sign Paul for vet min

Keep Ayton and try him out one last time under Vogel(who’s been good with bigs) 

Re-sign Craig to team friendly deal

Then package Shamet and 2nds for a large expiring contract and exceed the 2nd apron for this one year 

Nets get Shamet, Payne, cap savings and a few 2nds

Suns get Dinwiddie 

Or maybe go after expiring wings. Something like this would be my plan if i was the suns. I don’t think Ayton has much value around the league so i would keep him and restore value for now

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

You mean Dame to PHI

Yup.  Thank you.  Fixed.

[Chicagojk]

Crazy time. It appears Paul wants to stay in PHX but he wants to keep his current contract. If released, the Suns will have a hard time re-signing him if a team in LAL comes calling. But maybe the market for him is really dry and he wants to stay in the West Coast.

The new Suns owner has moved quick. I was a Monty fan, but I thought they wound up fine their with Vogel and keeping their young assistant coach. The Paul dance will need to be a delicate tightrope walk. Very tricky. And maybe he is not worth the trouble at his age. But, I can guarantee you Cuban would screw up that tightrope walk 10 different ways. Lets see how the new owner in PHX handles it. Again, any move they make at least short term needs to be factored in that they think it makes them closer to a championship.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Crazy time.  It appears Paul wants to stay in PHX but he wants to keep his current contract.  If released, the Suns will have a hard time re-signing him if a team in LAL comes calling.  But maybe the market for him is really dry and he wants to stay in the West Coast. 

The new Suns owner has moved quick.  I was a Monty fan, but I thought they wound up fine their with Vogel and keeping their young assistant coach.    The Paul dance will need to be a delicate tightrope walk.  Very tricky.  And maybe he is not worth the trouble at his age.  But, I can guarantee you Cuban would screw up that tightrope walk 10 different ways.  Lets see how the new owner in PHX handles it.  Again, any move they make at least short term needs to be factored in that they think it makes them closer to a championship.

If a team can send Chris Freaking Paul packing, it tells you this new CBA stuff is serious.

[F Gump]

Crazy time.  It appears Paul wants to stay in PHX but he wants to keep his current contract.  If released, the Suns will have a hard time re-signing him if a team in LAL comes calling.  But maybe the market for him is really dry and he wants to stay in the West Coast. 

The new Suns owner has moved quick.  I was a Monty fan, but I thought they wound up fine their with Vogel and keeping their young assistant coach.    The Paul dance will need to be a delicate tightrope walk.  Very tricky.  And maybe he is not worth the trouble at his age.  But, I can guarantee you Cuban would screw up that tightrope walk 10 different ways.  Lets see how the new owner in PHX handles it.  Again, any move they make at least short term needs to be factored in that they think it makes them closer to a championship.

" If released, the Suns will have a hard time re-signing him "

Re-signing him has issues. For starters, a plan to re-sign him means they CAN'T do a s-w. (And the Suns have to decide on the s-w before July free agency starts when they can negotiate.)

If they did eat his full 15.8M guarantee in 1 year, with the contracts they already have, they could only offer him minimum salary or maybe TxMLE of 5M (but that would almost certainly cost the Suns any shot at keeping Craig). Would he really come back to them for the minimum?

[Tyler]

Here's a key summary from Bobby Marks that could explain what Phoenix is looking at.

"Waiving and taking the full $15.8M cap hit only opens up the $5M tax ML. Stretching his money over 5 seasons ($3.16M) opens up the $12.2M non tax ML."

https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42/status/...2289700865

So the key to keeping Paul would be for Phoenix to dump enough salary before the 28th where they could just waive Paul (no stretch) and re-sign him. That way they could keep Paul and the full non tax ML. That's probably why Woj keeps bringing up Ayton when talking about Paul. Phoenix needs a salary dump if they want to keep Paul and the exceptions they need to fill out the roster.

[DallasMaverick]

Here's a key summary from Bobby Marks that could explain what Phoenix is looking at.

"Waiving and taking the full $15.8M cap hit only opens up the $5M tax ML. Stretching his money over 5 seasons ($3.16M) opens up the $12.2M non tax ML."

https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42/status/...2289700865

So the key to keeping Paul would be for Phoenix to dump enough salary before the 28th where they could just waive Paul (no stretch) and re-sign him. That way they could keep Paul and the full non tax ML. That's probably why Woj keeps bringing up Ayton when talking about Paul. Phoenix needs a salary dump if they want to keep Paul and the exceptions they need to fill out the roster.

Ah!  Maybe they'll waive and stretch Ayton!

[Chicagojk]

Here's a key summary from Bobby Marks that could explain what Phoenix is looking at.

"Waiving and taking the full $15.8M cap hit only opens up the $5M tax ML. Stretching his money over 5 seasons ($3.16M) opens up the $12.2M non tax ML."

https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42/status/...2289700865

So the key to keeping Paul would be for Phoenix to dump enough salary before the 28th where they could just waive Paul (no stretch) and re-sign him. That way they could keep Paul and the full non tax ML. That's probably why Woj keeps bringing up Ayton when talking about Paul. Phoenix needs a salary dump if they want to keep Paul and the exceptions they need to fill out the roster.

Interesting.  Thanks.   Very complicated to get this right.  Not much room for error.   Can they find a better fit than Ayton at a lower salary that will allow them to either bring Paul back at a lower # or stretch waive him and replace him with an MLE.    Or do they try to mend fences with Ayton?

[F Gump]

For PHX to keep CP3 at minimum salary, and still have big MLE, it takes
1 Forgo any shot at keeping Craig, and
2 Get rid of 10M in salary (such as get someone to take Shamet with no salary in return, or a trade where salary diff is 10M+)

Not impossible, but also not a slam dunk.

[Tyler]

For PHX to keep CP3 at minimum salary, and still have big MLE, it takes
1 Forgo any shot at keeping Craig, and
2 Get rid of 10M in salary (such as get someone to take Shamet with no salary in return, or a trade where salary diff is 10M+)

Not impossible, but also not a slam dunk.

Here's the closest I can think of with Dallas:

THJ/Bullock/Green for Ayton/Shamet

THJ/Bullock/Green ($32.6mm) is just enough to trade match for Ayton/Shamet ($40.4mm) before this year closes. But just as important, THJ has a declining salary next year while Bullock and Green have only small raises. So accounting for salary increases for Ayton and Shamet, it clears $9.7mm off of the Suns cap for next season ($42.6mm for DA/LS vs. $32.9mm for THJ/RB/JG). And if that's not enough, finding a 3rd team with space or an unused trade exception to take Bullock or Green would get them well over $10mm.

[dirkfansince1998]

https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status...1728216069

Makes sense for them. If LeBron leaves, retires or declines they don´t want to have his fragile running mate on a longterm deal.

[SleepingHero]

Here's a key summary from Bobby Marks that could explain what Phoenix is looking at.

"Waiving and taking the full $15.8M cap hit only opens up the $5M tax ML. Stretching his money over 5 seasons ($3.16M) opens up the $12.2M non tax ML."

https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42/status/...2289700865

So the key to keeping Paul would be for Phoenix to dump enough salary before the 28th where they could just waive Paul (no stretch) and re-sign him. That way they could keep Paul and the full non tax ML. That's probably why Woj keeps bringing up Ayton when talking about Paul. Phoenix needs a salary dump if they want to keep Paul and the exceptions they need to fill out the roster.

Well. Now a cheap center that's had success in PHX would probably entice them right? 

Could PHX be really interested in Davis Bertans S/W right now? PHX could wait until July 1st for his contract to tick over to the final season and then S/W him. His final 17 mil would be divided over 5 years at 3.3 mil, and it'd allow them to open up the non tax MLE for Craig AND retain Paul for the vet min.

Davis+Javale+Bullock works for Ayton straight up. It seems like a light package, but PHX is getting quite a lot here in terms of roster flexibility. Doing it this way allows them to retain CP3 at the vet min. It also gives them 12 mil MLE to work with for any starting wing (most likely Craig) who wants to come and join the CP3/Booker/Durant trio. Further they get a cheap replacement big in Javale who Vogel has a history with and another starter level 3-D wing on a cost controlled contract.

So it fulfills PHX's goal of breaking Ayton into multiple pieces, and gives them a bunch of financial relief.

[SleepingHero]

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/16665...uh8qAuAAAA

Paul continues to want to return to Suns and partner with Booker and Durant, sources said. Nevertheless, Paul and his reps want organization to make a decision well ahead of June 28th deadline to guarantee his deal so that Paul can proceed into marketplace if he’s indeed waived.

The Suns insist that they're still working through several possibilities for Paul's future and reiterated that to his representatives later Wednesday afternoon, sources said. Phoenix plans to explore trade opportunities including Paul and Deandre Ayton that could alter the franchise's roster landscape ahead of a final decision on Paul's partially guaranteed contract, sources said.

Is there also a deal where PHX gives Dallas Ayton for Dallas to S/W's CP3??

Something like: Bertans+THJ+Javale+Bullock for CP3+Ayton+Cash

Then Dallas S/W's CP3 deal for 3.3 a year. Meanwhile PHX S/W's Bertans to open up the MLE and then they resign Paul for whatever vet min deal they want.  EDIT: I totally forgot that should PHX trade CP3 and then wait for the other team to waive him, CP3 would have to wait a calendar year before he could return to PHX. So this nixes this idea full stop.

Dallas left with

Luka/Hardy
Kyrie/Green
MLE guy/Pinson
Maxi/#10
Ayton/Powell 

Mavs will then be able to retain #10 and use CWood as a potential SnT for whatever for the bench. They'd also reduce payroll to around 165mm (keeping Wood's hold, subtract 20 mil if they renounce it) and still have the MLE to work with

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Here's the closest I can think of with Dallas:

THJ/Bullock/Green for Ayton/Shamet

THJ/Bullock/Green ($32.6mm) is just enough to trade match for Ayton/Shamet ($40.4mm) before this year closes. But just as important, THJ has a declining salary next year while Bullock and Green have only small raises. So accounting for salary increases for Ayton and Shamet, it clears $9.7mm off of the Suns cap for next season ($42.6mm for DA/LS vs. $32.9mm for THJ/RB/JG). And if that's not enough, finding a 3rd team with space or an unused trade exception to take Bullock or Green would get them well over $10mm.

I'm only trading for Ayton if it doesn't include Green, Hardy, or picks.  $101.9m the next 3 years.  That's like a $40m overpay.  Given their needs right now, this is a buyer's market for Ayton.

Ayton $32.4m ($101.9m)
for
Bullock $10.4m ($10.4m)
Bertans $17m ($33m)
McGee $5.7m ($11.7m)
Total $33.1m ($55.1m)

If you look at Bertans/McGee as being dead money, there's your $44.7m.

I can't spell CBA, so I don't know if that gets PHX where they want to be.  Anyone here has insight?