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(05-26-2023, 05:54 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: I love the weekly inner thoughts omnibus of Dan.
Rui is way more interesting, but my excitement wanes if he's going to come on a deal bigger than 4/55. He's an okay player, but again he's flawed.
You also have to demand Vanderbilt in such a trade. His archetype of defense and hustle does fit around the most important player on the roster, regardless of whether or not he fits next to a center we're trying to wrangle.
Rui+D-Lo+Vanderbilt+29+#17 makes sense for the Mavs on paper. But I have a feeling seeing Kyrie jump ship in less than 4 months here can't bode well to keeping Luka happy. Who knows?
War and Peace baby. If you put yourself in LA’s shoes, they aren’t sending out Vandy and Rui. If Ayton is coming here, we saw in the playoffs Vandy can’t play next to a center who can’t spread the floor (and AD has more of a mid-range game than Ayton). I personally think you are asking too much of LA.
It is really important to assign actual numbers to things, especially if there is a S&T involved in the deal. That first apron can’t be breached and if you have Luka/Ayton and either of KI or D-Lo/Rui, you get to the Barrios r very Quickley. I do like THJ and Turner to Phoenix and posted something along those lines earlier in the week. Getting them to take Bertans is probably a bridge to far for what they are receiving.
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05-26-2023, 08:10 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-26-2023, 08:11 PM by Jakeospikez.)
If Kyrie does end up wanting to go to the Lakers instead of signing here, if I were the Mavs, there ain't no f'in way I'm helping them facilitate a S&T unless they're giving up #17. I'd take less valued assets overall like Bamba/Beasley expirings as long as #17 is involved, they can keep their 2029 pick. If Kyrie is out, the team is no longer win asap during his window and it's sort of win as early as you can but stay relevant for the next few years. Be good and continuously improve enough for Luka to stay for another contract. Mavs don't need a 2029 pick for that. They should be able to fill in whatever gaps the Kyrie S&T doesn't fill using #10, #17 and tradable expiring/2 year salaries. Would have to be a handshake deal on draft night though I guess.
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(05-26-2023, 05:18 PM)omahen Wrote: I would take just 2029 and Vandy (might be a pipedream to get both) and Lakers send Russel and whatever salary they need to to a third team. Mavs create a huge TE that works like cap space. But please remind me, when do the new rules come into play? 2023/24 or season after? Can we sign FA into TE this season already?
In any case, they have a huge TE, which might be valuable. Teams will be looking to dump salary due to the new CBA. Teams that might decide to start over might be happy to not receive bad salary back. TE opens many possibilities. Russell is just a bad contract, imho.
I think TPE vs. D-Lo and Rui is an interesting question. Earlier this week I wrote about such a plan, but it had some issue. If we have 2027 and LA’s 2029 and a sizable TPE, you can go shopping as you suggest.
The expiring salary LA may send out has to be guaranteed before LA can legally speak with Kyrie. To get a TPE, don’t we have to send Kyrie into space or another TPE? I’m not sure I understand how you are generating the large TPE for Dallas in the scenario as I understand it.
The new rule lets free agents sign into the MLE as if it were a TPE. I’ve not seen where a TPE can be used for free agents. It would have to be a S&T into a TPE.
The reason I landed on taking both D-Lo and Rui is it filled out the roster rather than hoping for a deal that uses the TPE later. Plus, such a deal only filled one roster spot. Cooperating with LA filled two. The way I did it also gave a mediocre TPE of $15mm-$16mm, but you also have contracts you can use in trade matching. If Reggie and McGee go to Brooklyn, you still have Bertans to trade along with 2027/2029…or you S/W him.
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(05-26-2023, 08:10 PM)Jakeospikez Wrote: If Kyrie does end up wanting to go to the Lakers instead of signing here, if I were the Mavs, there ain't no f'in way I'm helping them facilitate a S&T unless they're giving up #17. I'd take less valued assets overall like Bamba/Beasley expirings as long as #17 is involved, they can keep their 2029 pick. If Kyrie is out, the team is no longer win asap during his window and it's sort of win as early as you can but stay relevant for the next few years. Be good and continuously improve enough for Luka to stay for another contract. Mavs don't need a 2029 pick for that. They should be able to fill in whatever gaps the Kyrie S&T doesn't fill using #10, #17 and tradable expiring/2 year salaries. Would have to be a handshake deal on draft night though I guess.
I think 2029 is viewed around the league as a more valuable asset than #17 in this draft. Taking Bamba and Beasley to get 17 (timing is an issue as you suggest) doesn’t do anything for me. I suspect we are going to be disappointed in the approach they take to the draft this year. $3-$5mm on a guy that won’t help for the next two playoffs is a tough pill to swallow when money is tight and you have other bad contracts on your roster. It doesn’t have to go for some 30 year old washed up guy. Rui and Ayton are just a year older than Luka.
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Hmm.. yeah the Lakers 2029 could be used for a trade during FA so maybe it's not so bad. Should be a valuable lotto ticket since it's gonna be post Lebron/AD years. I think the Mavs are more likely to be a 3rd/4th team involved in an Ayton deal though rather than getting him. Also, I don't think the Nets are gonna be willing to do Claxton+22 for #10/Bullock/McGee because they weaken their 5 spot a lot. They're the more likely ones to get Ayton as a 5 swap. Unless there's some plan to get some FA 5 or something.
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(05-26-2023, 09:15 PM)Jakeospikez Wrote: Hmm.. yeah the Lakers 2029 could be used for a trade during FA so maybe it's not so bad. Should be a valuable lotto ticket since it's gonna be post Lebron/AD years. I think the Mavs are more likely to be a 3rd/4th team involved in an Ayton deal though rather than getting him. Also, I don't think the Nets are gonna be willing to do Claxton+22 for #10/Bullock/McGee because they weaken their 5 spot a lot. They're the more likely ones to get Ayton as a 5 swap. Unless there's some plan to get some FA 5 or something.
Yes, the post LeBron/AD era is the thinking behind its value. Might be better as a trade chip next summer. Then Dallas could trade 25, 27 and LA’s 29. Get the second star then.
Who knows on Ayton. I think there is smoke around Dallas, but who knows if it’s fire.
My logic on Claxton is he’s a flight risk. He won’t extend and Brooklyn has no control over him next summer. In fact, he’s represented by an agency that just sent a guy off to NY in a similar situation. Meanwhile #10 is a lottery ticket. Maybe that player is no better than Claxton. Or, maybe they hit on the perfect compliment to Bridges and Cam Johnson. The pick value chart shows 10 having a similar value to 21 and 22 combined. So, I’m letting them keep 21 for taking Reggie/McGee (or Bertans) into their $18mm TPE. Maybe you don’t have to pay to move on from Reggie, but I suspect getting that kind of TPE is going to cost you something.
I really really like Claxton in Phoenix on several levels. Not having a center hurts for sure. But they need cost controlled building blocks until they can get our from under Simmons and buy a star in 2025.
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(05-26-2023, 03:18 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: Problem is, I think Cubes will forget he needs to make an offer that is more than what other teams can offer, based on history.
Or at least be competitive.
Cuban talks a good game. Remember how he was bragging about how the Mavs could outbid anyone so they were confident JB would return?
Then, when it was time to cut the check, he went cheap. JB didn't want to meet with Cuban, but Cuban has reportedly said he was unwilling to top NY's offer, even if he had been given the chance, In fact, he just wanted a chance to try to talk JB into staying and taking the number the Mavs had in mind.
So there was no reason for JB to come hear that sales pitch. Show me the money. Oh, no money? Then why bother.
Why was Cuban so cheap? Other than a track record saying "he always is," I have to think Cuban's thinking was also driven by the desire to make JB a trade chip, not a long-term keeper. And I think JB got a whiff of the mindset, and saw Dallas wasn't offering a long-term home, while NY was.
With Kyrie, if we want to know what Cuban will offer, maybe we have to ask ourselves what Kyrie's contract would have to look like for him to be in high demand in a trade later on, in 6 months or a year or two. And is that a deal Kyrie will sign? Or will he walk too?
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(05-26-2023, 08:40 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: The new rule lets free agents sign into the MLE as if it were a TPE.
You are correct that the prior comment about MLE, TPE, and new rules was not accurate. (And yes, it's not a change in TPE rules.) But to keep the info on track for future conversations, what's here is not accurate either.
It should say "The new rule lets players be TRADED (or claimed on waivers) via the MLE as if it were a TPE."
The fine print:
1 This change is BEGINNING IN SUMMER 2024
2 It is allowed for BAE, and for Room or TxP MLE (but not Taxpayer MLE).
3 The whittling down of those exceptions, when not yet already fully used, won't begin until the trade deadline.
4 There are some technical limits on such use re contract length.
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I personally don't see Kyrie leaving or the LA sign and trade. I do not like the mentioned LA trades at all. DLo is a very flawed and streaky player. I'd rather have Dinwiddie, DFS and our picks back instead of the Lakers trade. This doesn't make sense to me. If Kyrie is hell bent on going to LA, we shouldn't make it easy for him or for LA. Get what we want or let Kyrie go sign for 30 per year and have LA gut their team to do so. I'm really disappointed with the LA proposals.
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(05-26-2023, 07:45 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: War and Peace baby. If you put yourself in LA’s shoes, they aren’t sending out Vandy and Rui. If Ayton is coming here, we saw in the playoffs Vandy can’t play next to a center who can’t spread the floor (and AD has more of a mid-range game than Ayton). I personally think you are asking too much of LA.
It is really important to assign actual numbers to things, especially if there is a S&T involved in the deal. That first apron can’t be breached and if you have Luka/Ayton and either of KI or D-Lo/Rui, you get to the Barrios r very Quickley. I do like THJ and Turner to Phoenix and posted something along those lines earlier in the week. Getting them to take Bertans is probably a bridge to far for what they are receiving.
That's fair regarding the numbers bit.
Regarding asking the Lakers too much for Kyrie: Thats the thing, the Lakers are in no position of power. What happens if they say no? They don't get Kyrie and/or Kyrie has to sacrifice a crap ton of personal money. Why should the Mavs be doing any favors here? D-Lo isn't a positive asset at all right now, and hasn't been for the last 3+ years, and the Mavs are being asked to take him on. Is Rui a good enough consolation prize for 1) losing a superstar and 2) taking on a mediocre asset at a probable overpaid salary?
That's how I'm approaching it. That's why I have to ask for Vando. Sure he can't start and play many minutes next to a guy like Ayton, but he does let the Mavs have more options regarding lineups. His defense is something we sorely need. I'd rather have a guy like Vando off the bench (in a flawed role) then not have the asset at all cause of fit reasons. At worse he can be used in a trade later on down the line.
Re: IND trade. Yeah the Bertans thing was just for money matching purposes. I'm not really sure if the Mavs or PHX have what IND really wants. They are receiving a lotto pick for Turner. So if we assume his value is similar we have to toss in a starting caliber player. Does Reggie fit that? I know IND would want either Hardy or Green but again the Mavs are paying too much in such a deal. Can Christian Wood SnT be an option here??
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(05-26-2023, 10:56 PM)F Gump Wrote: Or at least be competitive.
Cuban talks a good game. Remember how he was bragging about how the Mavs could outbid anyone so they were confident JB would return?
Then, when it was time to cut the check, he went cheap. JB didn't want to meet with Cuban, but Cuban has reportedly said he was unwilling to top NY's offer, even if he had been given the chance, In fact, he just wanted a chance to try to talk JB into staying and taking the number the Mavs had in mind.
So there was no reason for JB to come hear that sales pitch. Show me the money. Oh, no money? Then why bother.
Why was Cuban so cheap? Other than a track record saying "he always is," I have to think Cuban's thinking was also driven by the desire to make JB a trade chip, not a long-term keeper. And I think JB got a whiff of the mindset, and saw Dallas wasn't offering a long-term home, while NY was.
With Kyrie, if we want to know what Cuban will offer, maybe we have to ask ourselves what Kyrie's contract would have to look like for him to be in high demand in a trade later on, in 6 months or a year or two. And is that a deal Kyrie will sign? Or will he walk too? +41 +77
For your last point, I think we know the answer. Kyrie will absolutely walk should Cuban offer a pittance compared to other teams. I think the mindset of viewing Kyrie as a trade chip is exactly a Cuban thing to do, and will most probably be the reason why Kyrie walks again.
I don't know how many embarrassing moments an owner can take. Cuban has been riding on the good will of fans and that 2011 ring for 12 years now. Dirk's greatness was so good it hid all of Cuban's inadequacies. Should Kyrie walk (and I would not be surprised if he does), I can't imagine the backlash and ridicule this franchise will get, deservedly so.
Does that scenario scare Cuban enough to act against his natural tendencies?
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05-27-2023, 12:38 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-27-2023, 12:45 AM by F Gump.)
(05-26-2023, 05:23 PM)omahen Wrote: Brooklyn gets 10/Reggie/McGee for Claxton/22
Phoenix gets THJ/Claxton for Ayton
Dallas gets Ayton/22 (for THJ, Reggie, McGee and #10).
I would just keep it simple and take Claxton. Leave Phoenix out.
This is replying to BKN trade conversation, and not just these comments from you.
I agree with that ^ analysis. I would want Claxton way more than Ayton. PERIOD.
I understand DS concern over him being a FA in 2024, but if you have to flee from players who will be FAs soon, because you are incompetent in navigating contracts and getting players at a reasonable number to be a part of your roster, you have the wrong FO. It feels like the same "problem" in the possibility of trading for Kyrie - "what if we can't re-sign him??" - and imo, you just have to be skilled and make the trade you need, and you're screwed anyhow if you can't ever sign your FA's. It's an expert GM's league.
Ultimately, even if we assume Claxton gets a big bump in a year, I'd much rather have Claxton (in his new deal) on the floor than Ayton. I think he would be a better fit, and more productive, and in his new deal I don't think Claxton will get anywhere near the HUGE money that Ayton gets.
The issue of course is whether BKN will even trade him. I am hopeful. I do think that getting pick 10 might be seen as a big plus for them. But I am also aware he may not even be an option.
If he is available, however, and if this is in the ballpark, there are a couple of issues I see from the BKN side.
The biggest one is that while they have a TPE, I suspect they won't want to use it. This trade idea using the TPE bumps their payroll next season by ~$7M, when they are already in the vicinity of the 1st apron and probably want to go the other way. So I think they would highly prefer a swap that is either about even salary, or may even allow them to reduce a bit.
One solution to that is my same idea - move the trade back to July and let BKN also send DFS to Dallas. The deal can be pre-arranged draft day, with the trigger pulled in July. The players coming from DAL could stay the same, or THJ could be subbed for RB, and either way BKN doesn't end up with a payroll increase. Obviously an idea like this depends on how BKN sees DFS, whether as a plus or a minus, but when you look at how he played, he might be seen as a bad contract they'd rather be shed of.
10 + RB(or THJ) + McGee
22 + Claxton + DFS
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I think Ayton is a loser who isn't interested in playing winning basketball so I would certainly rather have Claxton.
It's also very unclear to me that Kyrie can fit with Luka on this team and lead them to a winning record, so IF the Mavs could actually fleece the Lakers in some way, potentially gaining assets which could later be traded for a younger, better second star, I might not be too upset. It would obviously be a pretty bad look for Cuban and his cronies to lose a star FA guard again, but whatever.
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(05-27-2023, 12:06 AM)F Gump Wrote: It should say "The new rule lets players be TRADED (or claimed on waivers) via the MLE as if it were a TPE."
The fine print:
1 This change is BEGINNING IN SUMMER 2024
2 It is allowed for BAE, and for Room or TxP MLE (but not Taxpayer MLE).
3 The whittling down of those exceptions, when not yet already fully used, won't begin until the trade deadline.
4 There are some technical limits on such use re contract length.
I knew better. Thanks. The rest of this information is great (and new for the most part). Very helpful.
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Supposedly the Spurs want another first round pick to draft a point guard. If they are interested in the tier of point guards that would be available at pick 10 (Wallace & Black), then maybe we can get in the conversation for Keldon Johnson.
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(05-27-2023, 12:27 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: Why should the Mavs be doing any favors here? D-Lo isn't a positive asset at all right now, and hasn't been for the last 3+ years, and the Mavs are being asked to take him on. Is Rui a good enough consolation prize for 1) losing a superstar and 2) taking on a mediocre asset at a probable overpaid salary?
That's how I'm approaching it. That's why I have to ask for Vando. Sure he can't start and play many minutes next to a guy like Ayton, but he does let the Mavs have more options regarding lineups.
Re: IND trade. Yeah the Bertans thing was just for money matching purposes. I'm not really sure if the Mavs or PHX have what IND really wants. They are receiving a lotto pick for Turner. So if we assume his value is similar we have to toss in a starting caliber player. Does Reggie fit that? I know IND would want either Hardy or Green but again the Mavs are paying too much in such a deal. Can Christian Wood SnT be an option here??
Let me clarify on Turner. Long ago I pointed out Bertans is a nice match for him (almost to the penny in July). It is hard to know what Indy would want, but 10 and a trade match is a good start and maybe enough. It was difficult to follow your exact trade once Hield became involved. I like 10/Bertans for Turner with Turner ending up in Dallas. I also think there is a deal to be had that sends THJ and Turner to Phoenix with Ayton coming to Dallas (no need for Bertans or Hield in that deal). It felt to me like adding Bertans and Hield to the three way made it unnecessarily complex.
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(05-26-2023, 05:18 PM)omahen Wrote: I was thinking about a scenario if Kyrie wants to leave. I think the smarter move would be to go with minimum salary back…So, I would take just 2029 and Vandy (might be a pipedream to get both) and Lakers send Russel and whatever salary they need to to a third team.
Let’s just stop right here and play this out and see if we like it. You are describing LA operating over the cap using a third team to generate the outgoing salary needed to match KI AND (important) retain their hold on Rui and others. So, that is worth LA paying something for. I don’t think Vandy + 2029 is unreasonable. There isn’t a big TPE for Dallas (might be for LA), but there is cap room (maybe $30mm depending on other decisions).
Right now you have the following if you assume a Bertans S/W
_______. _____. McGee
Vandy. Maxi. Morris
THJ. Reggie. Lawson
Green. Hardy. Holiday
Luka. ______. Wright
I’m going to pencil in Powell for some or all of the Room MLE, so that doesn’t reduce cap space. We can get to an extra $5mm of space if we move on from Reggie. How do we spend $30-$35mm?
We may know pretty quickly what the KI thing is going to be if we wake up Wednesday morning after the draft and we held onto #10. I’m putting Wallace in this spot. It could obviously be Lively or a wing. If Vandy is the PF, the C needs to be an outside shooter. Naz Reid is free, so I’ll go there for something north of $12mm. Reggie is gone and I need another wing to rotate with Green and THJ. Give me Grant Williams for $16mm. Maybe we still have Reggie, maybe we don’t depending on what things cost.
Keeping this in it simplest from, the below is what we have. We do have 2027 and LA’s 2029 to trade. We certainly could have traded down and created additional space. Maybe Powell is a minimum (I’m taking the over) and we use the Room MLE on a PG (Carter?). Clearly other ways to work around this. But, is getting a shot at these FA’s an acceptable outcome if Kyrie wants to go?
Naz. Powell. McGee
Vandy. Maxi. Morris
G. Will. THJ. Lawson
Green. Hardy. Holiday
Luka. Wallace. Wright
Recall also that if you can live with this for a year, you have 25/27/LA 2029 and expiring THJ and expiring McGee to throw at a team for a star.
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@DanSchwartzgan
Quote:One thing to bear in mind, whatever we send, there has to be a path for Phoenix to use it to get a center.
Feels like us giving them the avenue+ way to get a C is the avenue we should just take to get our C and use the other assets to shore up the wing/defense situation.
Also, +41 on your post!
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Someone please explain to me the fascination with Turner.
Stretch? Kinda. Only 1.5 3ptrs/game at 37.3%. That'd put him 8th on the Mavs from last year (behind Wood).
Rebounder? Meh. Only 7.5rbs with a Reb% of 12.8. That'd put him squarely behind Wood and McGee in %, and behind Luka in rbs.
Defense? Nope. 116.3 DefRtg. That'd put him 9th on the Mavs from last year (behind Luka).
Scoring? Kinda. 18pts puts him behind Luka and Kyrie.
Cheap? Meh. $20.9mill.
Why on Earth would we want Turner over Jarrett Allen?
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(05-27-2023, 10:49 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: _______. _____. McGee
Vandy. Maxi. Morris
THJ. Reggie. Lawson
Green. Hardy. Holiday
Luka. ______. Wright
Man I am not all that impressed with that starting 4. Really not sure they are better than the starting 4 we had to start this season. I will say, I hope we know if Kyrie is gonna sign with us at the draft cause one of Wallace or Black might be there at 10 and that could turn out to be much better in the long run.
I’m going to pencil in Powell for some or all of the Room MLE, so that doesn’t reduce cap space. We can get to an extra $5mm of space if we move on from Reggie. How do we spend $30-$35mm?
So, my thought is to use that space to increase our buying power in trade. For example: trade Bullock for Collins giving Atl a good size immediate savings (well TPE to be used how they want) and the full contract off the books next year. Maybe we tip them the 30 SRP or something like that. Getting more players back than outgoing with it, something like Bogdanovich, Stewart and Hayes for Bertans and a FRP. That is how I would spend the space as opposed to looking for 1 player to spend all of it on. I'm not focusing on the specific deals, I'm focusing on being creative with the money.
We may know pretty quickly what the KI thing is going to be if we wake up Wednesday morning after the draft and we held onto #10. I’m putting Wallace in this spot. It could obviously be Lively or a wing. If Vandy is the PF, the C needs to be an outside shooter. Naz Reid is free, so I’ll go there for something north of $12mm. Reggie is gone and I need another wing to rotate with Green and THJ. Give me Grant Williams for $16mm. Maybe we still have Reggie, maybe we don’t depending on what things cost.
I really like that in a losing Kyrie situation. It gets us a point of attack defender at a spot that they should come from that can drive to the hoop well and just needs to focus on adding a 3 pt shot. Oh, and he's on a rookie scale contract. I like the thought of Black slipping that far a bit better cause we already have plenty 6'4-5" players.
Keeping this in it simplest from, the below is what we have. We do have 2027 and LA’s 2029 to trade. We certainly could have traded down and created additional space. Maybe Powell is a minimum (I’m taking the over) and we use the Room MLE on a PG (Carter?). Clearly other ways to work around this. But, is getting a shot at these FA’s an acceptable outcome if Kyrie wants to go?
Naz. Powell. McGee
Vandy. Maxi. Morris
G. Will. THJ. Lawson
Green. Hardy. Holiday
Luka. Wallace. Wright
While that is an upgrade to last season's squad, and I really like Grant Will as a FA signing (maybe sign him then use the rest of the capspace to get a trade we want via the idea above), it's kinda underwhelming. For sure playoff team, probably a 4-6 seed depending on injuries for us and all teams. I guess what I don't like so much is if Luka goes down, just like last season, we have to hope for a weak stretch in the schedule.
Recall also that if you can live with this for a year, you have 25/27/LA 2029 and expiring THJ and expiring McGee to throw at a team for a star. We would also have the 31 at that point too.
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