Trade & FA 2023-24: PHX Wants Lebron+Bronny| Hawks to Shop Hunter

[omahen]

My point was that the idea of a simple one-for-one swap is just being floated, not reported.

I don't think we will have anything reported soon. We don't even know which pick (if any), Mavs and other teams will have in 2023. Besides, Irving is a free agent and little to nothing can be reported before start of FA, or a team risks a penalty. 

However, we have McMahon saying Mavs like Ayton. We have plenty of rumors how Durant likes Irving. We have a Phoenix guy saying how an Ayton for Irving trade would make sense, because Phoenix obviously doesn't like Ayton a lot. So plenty of smoke to play around with fantasy trades.

While Irving for Ayton might be complicated and needs additional pieces, it is far from impossible to execute. I for one, would love to see something creative involving one or more other teams bringing additional pieces to the table as we all know Mavs have a bunch of holes to fill. Like Miami did a bunch of moves to execute the Butler SnT.

I don't understand why one would stop being creative if a thing seems difficult...

[omahen]

To continue with the Ayton idea. If Mavs don't like CP3 or a trade with him just can't be executed, the simplest solution is to ship CP3 to a third team. He is only guaranteed 15 mil for next season, so there is plenty of possibilities to adjust his contract to the right value. Since Phoenix ownes all their SRP, that could be enough of a compensation for the third team to eat that contract. I know CP3 guarantee date is before FA, but that also gets moved all the time.

I am not saying this is a good outcome for Mavs. But if Kyrie wants to leave, getting Ayton as compensation is not that bad of an outcome. Certainly better than signing disgruntled Kyrie, who would prefer to be somewhere else, to a near max contract.

[Mavs2021]

My point was that the idea of a simple one-for-one swap is just being floated, not reported. It would be a complicated deal, not a simple one, because of payroll issues for BOTH teams.

Kyrie for CP3+Ayton doesn't work either.

Is there some solution? Sure, in theory.

No idea about the new CBA implications, but from a pure salary matching standpoint it´s a very easy deal. Given the limited assets on either side it´s also virtually the only deal. Luka is friends with Ayton. Kyrie with Durant. Time lines sync up. It´s probably the best the Mavs can hope for.

[F Gump]

He is only guaranteed 15 mil for next season, so there is plenty of possibilities to adjust his contract to the right value. 

No, it doesn't work that way. The lack of full guarantee does not allow for the possibility of a salary reduction to a lower salary. It only comes into play if CP is waived - made a free agent - and it's money he walks away with from whoever waived him. That would be Phoenix, of course, unless they want to bribe another team to take CP and waive him and pay him $15M, and have the payoff eat into their cap with nothing to show for it.

In addition, by the time we get to July, when a Kyrie S&T might be considered, CP3 will be fully guaranteed or a FA (and not in the mix for a trade).

[omahen]

No, it doesn't work that way. The lack of full guarantee does not allow for the possibility of a salary reduction to a lower salary. It only comes into play if CP is waived - made a free agent - and it's money he walks away with from whoever waived him. That would be Phoenix, of course, unless they want to bribe another team to take CP and waive him and pay him $15M, and have the payoff eat into their cap with nothing to show for it.

I perfectly understand that. We are speaking about cap space tanking teams taking bad salaries for compensation.

In addition, by the time we get to July, when a Kyrie S&T might be considered, CP3 will be fully guaranteed or a FA (and not in the mix for a trade).

Guarantee dates are renegotiated all the time

Edit: Perhaps you overlooked, but I clearly said there is a third team involved

[F Gump]

I don't understand why one would stop being creative if a thing seems difficult...

I didn't say there's no way to a deal or that we shouldn't talk about it. Sorry if you misread my point. It's that ...
(a) there are deals to devise on paper that can resolve the difficulties, but it's not a simple deal at all, with lots of issues and potential moving pieces
(b) I didn't feel like exploring it, so someone else can. No disrespect to whoever wants to wade into it.

[omahen]

but it's not a simple deal at all

I know  But I would really like to see Mavs involved in something difficult and creative. It would give me back a bit of confidence in this franchise, which is basically at zero right now. Although in this specific case, it would actually have to be on Phoenix to figure out all the details. Making it more likely to actually happen than it would be the other way around

[omahen]

Assuming a scenario where Kyrie says to Mavs he wants to be in Phoenix, this is how I see it as most likely to happen:
1. Kyrie: I like Dallas, but I would really like to go to Phoenix
2. Mavs: We understand, but we demand Ayton, no bad salary, and 2 first round picks to help you with that
3. Kyrie: My guys worked really hard to explore all the options, but it is just not possible. Best they can do is Ayton and two second rounders and you don't worry about other moving parts
4. Mavs: Screw it than, we don't want it. You sign with us or you can enjoy your time with losers with cap space.
5. Kyrie signs with losers with cap space and is traded to Phoenix half a year later for Ayton, 2 second rounders and whatever salary filler needed

[Mavs2021]

The deal is Kyrie + Bertans (67M) for CP3+Ayton (62M).

Puts Phoenix at around 161. Dallas at around 153. Can probably work this under the apron of 179.5 and load up with minimum guys.

Phoenix´s problem is that next year Booker/Durant "only" make 82M, but in 2024/2025 it jumps to 100M. So it doesn´t get any easier for them, unless they let CP3 walk in 2024. So CP3 basically has no value at all in the trade. It´s a Kyrie for Ayton trade. I´m not Ayton´s biggest fan, but you want to keep Luka happy, that´s probably your best bet. If you can nail the draft, Hardy and Green show further improvement, you have your CORE.

We win 45 games with Doncic/Hardy/Green/Hendricks/Ayton, I think Luka is satisfied with the franchise direction. More than with winning 50 with Kyrie/Capela and literally no assets left.

[omahen]

The deal is Kyrie + Bertans (67M) for CP3+Ayton (62M).

Puts Phoenix at around 161. Dallas at around 153. Can probably work this under the apron of 179.5 and load up with minimum guys.

The apron you need to look at is a hard cap apron caused by SnT. Not sure exactly how much will be next season, somewhere around 165. With 161 mil for just 7 players it is not possible to execute by Phoenix. They could of course stretch Bertans. Phoenix needs to offload much more salary to make this happen

[F Gump]

The apron you need to look at is a hard cap apron caused by SnT. Not sure exactly how much will be next season, somewhere around 165. With 161 mil for just 7 players it is not possible to execute by Phoenix. They could of course stretch Bertans. Phoenix needs to offload much more salary to make this happen

You're correct as to the biggest issue, and as to the impact ("Phoenix needs to offload much more salary to make this happen"). The obstacles ---
1 Using current cap estimate of 134M, the 1st apron will land at about 170M and the 2nd at 180M.
2 PHX w 7 players is at 166M (spotrac), and filling up the rest of the 15-man roster the very cheapest way (all minimums) lands them at about 182M (minimums are 2M each for apron calculations).
3 A plan to SW Bertans, while it could help them later perhaps, isn't applicable to the math of whether PHX would be under 1st apron in order to be able do that trade.
...Bertans would count at full contract in that calculation.
...Kyrie-Bertans for CP-Ayton doesn't lower their cap at all.
...It helps a little that the last 3 minimum slots wouldn't be counted on cap until filled (but 2 or more have to be filled when the games start). 
4 I wonder if one or both teams would prefer Bullock-McGee in this equation, rather than Bertans. While the math is similar, it offers different choices.

[dirkfansince1998]

As someone who has been asking for a "take a step back approach". I know that´s not how the Mavs think. But just to get an idea about the value. Lets say the Mavs go for a mini rebuild. Maybe try to add another lottery pick or young talent. Is there any scenario where a Kyrie sign&trade can return a package like this?

For example. Pelicans think a better version of McCollum is enough to turn them into a legit contender. Would they/would the Mavs consider McCollum + #14 for Kyrie?

[omahen]

Would they/would the Mavs consider McCollum + #14 for Kyrie?

As in all of this ideas. The one making the decision is Kyrie, not Mavs. Scenario something like - Kyrie comes to Mavs, I would prefer to be in the team XY but they don't have cap space to make it happen, so I kindly ask for your help. Mavs can either help him or not, which means he either walks somewhere else or you give a huge long term contract to a player who said he would prefer to be elsewhere.

#14 doesn't really work, because draft is before FA. But leaving that aside, I think it is a reasonable compensation.

[dirkfansince1998]

As in all of this ideas. The one making the decision is Kyrie, not Mavs. Scenario something like - Kyrie comes to Mavs, I would prefer to be in the team XY but they don't have cap space to make it happen, so I kindly ask for your help. Mavs can either help him or not, which means he either walks somewhere else or you give a huge long term contract to a player who said he would prefer to be elsewhere.

#14 doesn't really work, because draft is before FA. But leaving that aside, I think it is a reasonable compensation.

Just super difficult to come up with fair value for Kyrie. On top of the difficulty to find teams that would be interested. The limiting factor for Kyrie is pretty obvious. How many teams besides the Mavs have capspace/can create capspace and are willing to give him the max. Not sure if there is a single team that falls into that category and that could give the Mavs some leverage.

We have mentioned the Suns and Heat. Maybe the Clippers? Who else is even an option?
I guess Harden´s free agency decision could lead to an opening. Stay with the 76ers? Return to Houston? If he leaves Philly they need to find a replacement. If he joins the Rockets they would be just short of the necessary capspace to add a second max player.

[omahen]

Just super difficult to come up with fair value for Kyrie.

Not sure which value do you mean. His salary or his trade value? I am refering to trade value and I think we have to have a different perception here. Mavs are not trading Kyrie. He is a FA, they have no rights to trade him. They are selling a service of enabling Kyrie to be where he wants to be, if he chooses to be elsewhere. I think this is the key, as the value of this service is not connected to the trade value of the player. It represents the trouble team has to help him. At the minimum they can just sign (and trade) him, the receiving team sends salaries elsewhere and Mavs get a bit of compensation for their trouble. If Mavs are receiving salaries, than it is the question of worth of this salaries for Mavs. So perhaps best way to value this service would be, how much would it cost the receiving team to send this salaries elsewhere. At least this is how I see it.

The limiting factor for Kyrie is pretty obvious. How many teams besides the Mavs have capspace/can create capspace and are willing to give him the max.

I think this is one part of the limiting factor. The other is Kyries himself. How much is just about the money or has a place where he would prefer to be also value for him and is prepared to take less money to be there.

We have mentioned the Suns and Heat. Maybe the Clippers? Who else is even an option?

In any case, I think it only takes one team. 

Lakers might still be in play. DLo is not playing well at all. Cap space is costly for them and not realistic, but SnT could be an option. Still difficult to place three big contracts and stay below the apron, though. Unless of course Kyrie would take something around 30 mil to be with them instead of full max. Are we really sure he wouldn't be willing to do that? In that case they are paying 125 mil for the big three and have 40 mil for rest of the roster with only 6 mil guaranteed (Vando and Christie) on the books. So perhaps still enough room for Reaves, Hachimura, while the rest goes for vet min deals. Looking at teams able to execute very complicated deals, Lakers are definitely in the top five in the league, imho.

Assuming they can figure out the math of SnT for Kyrie and sign rest of the roster, the basic deal could look like Dlo, Beasley and or Bamba as outgoing salary. I am not enthusiastic about any of them. So perhaps 2023 to Dallas for their trouble and 2029 pick to third team for taking the needed salary. I am aware of the timing problem with 2023 pick, but again - Lakers might be capable of executing very complicated deal.

[DanSchwartzgan]

The apron you need to look at is a hard cap apron caused by SnT.  

Sorry I'm late to the party.  Don't have much to add beyond the good stuff that has been written so far.

I wouldn't sleep on the possibility of a Paul retirement.  Yes, his deal was reported as 4 years and $120mm.  But, the partial guarantee contemplated him only playing two years.  Total salary for that two years works out to $75mm or $37.5mm per year.  The dude has made over $400mm in the NBA and is probably top two or three in the league in endorsement money.  Retirement would save him the indignity of being traded as a salary dump.

If they S/W his guarantee, its only $3.16mm per year for five years.  But that changes their relationship to the first apron pretty dramatically.  There is plenty of room for the full MLE and a 25% trade spread on Ayton plus money to bring back some of their FA's.  The question would then become how to build out the roster around KD and Booker.  Sending Ayton out for multiple returning players makes great sense.  I'm not sure it is necessarily to Dallas and not necessarily involving Kyrie.  As ball dominant as KD and Booker are, Phoenix doesn't have to have a traditional PG.  They just need a point of attack defender to put next to Booker.  Jevon Carter, for instance, would be more than enough.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I'd much rather take advantage of the shakeup in MIL.  Something like...

Kyrie, THJ, 10th Pick 2023
for
Jrue, Lopez, Allen

Point - Luka, Hardy
Guard - Jrue, Allen
Forward - Green, Bullock
Forward - Wood, Maxi
Center - Lopez, McGee

Bench - Bertans, Justin, Morris

[DallasMaverick]

I'd much rather take advantage of the shakeup in MIL.  Something like...

Kyrie, THJ, 10th Pick 2023
for
Jrue, Lopez, Allen

Point - Luka, Hardy
Guard - Jrue, Allen
Forward - Green, Bullock
Forward - Wood, Maxi
Center - Lopez, McGee

Bench - Bertans, Justin, Morris

Feels like a significant step backward.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Feels like a significant step backward.

How is this lineup
Luka, Jrue, Green, Wood, Lopez
not better than this lineup?
Luka, Kyrie, THJ, Bullock, Powell

[Tyler]

How is this lineup
Luka, Jrue, Green, Wood, Lopez
not better than this lineup?
Luka, Kyrie, THJ, Bullock, Powell

IMO, the fact that Jrue is openly talking about early retirement after his current contract is up completely negates his long-term value. So unless one thinks that's a title team RIGHT NOW, trading for Jrue is just burning assets with minimum payoff.

https://www.si.com/nba/bucks/news/jrue-h...al-expires