(06-08-2023, 06:44 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: Hollinger top 25 free agent BORDS rankings.  His numbers are off on projections I remember from last year but this is from his data.  Kyrie was at 59 million and #1 on his list.

22. Christian Wood, C, 27, Dallas: $17,289,331

Well, that was an interesting ride. The Mavs steadily soured on Wood despite substantial production, partly because of his defense at the five and partly because everything got weird in Dallas during the second half of the season.

Wood is caught somewhat between positions at 6-10, 214 pounds, and might function best as a third big man who can flex between power forward and center. At either spot, he is a huge force offensively, with 3-point range, the ability to attack off the dribble and enough pop to be a lob threat as a rim runner. The other use for him, however, is just as a starting center, especially if he’s paired with a bully four who can crossmatch with him at times.

Wood’s other calling card is that he’s the best big who is clearly available, with the other centers on this list likely returning to their own teams. He should be the first call for any team in need of offensive firepower at the center spot.

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1. Kyrie Irving, PG, 31, Dallas: $50,555,884

There is a lot more that goes into having Irving on your team than BORD$ is able to process, which is why sentient beings may put a lower value on Irving than my computer formula does. Between injuries, insolence and inoculations (or lack thereof), Irving hasn’t played more than 60 games in a season in four years; he’s only had three seasons in his 12 as a pro that would make him award-eligible (more than 65 games). (Odd fact: When Irving did play, he led the league in minutes per game.)

On the other hand, he’s also an offensive whirlwind who averaged 27 points a game on 63.4 percent true shooting in 20 games as a Maverick last season. Irving’s BORD$ pegs him being worth more than his $46.5 million max for the coming season, but the two more pressing questions are whether the collateral locker room damage is worth it, and whether he can continue to stay this productive on a deal that pushes into his mid-30s.

Given how many teams lack either the cap space to sign Irving or the willingness to put up with him, Dallas may be able to push back and offer him something short of his four-year, $210 million max (let alone the five-year version for $272 million).

Dallas could also go longer on years and shorter on money, which would be appealing from managing its luxury-tax situation. The Mavs are $48 million from the projected tax line before paying Irving a cent and would still have five open roster spots to fill after signing Irving.

As for the Lakers, L.A. can’t get anywhere close to Irving’s max in any realistic cap room scenario. A sign-and-trade, however, would get kind of wacky but is theoretically possible. The Lakers would need to pick up Mo Bamba’s guarantee, guarantee Shaq Harrison’s deal, pick up Malik Beasley’s option and sign their first-round pick (17th). After a month, they could trade the pick along with Bamba, Beasley, Harrison and Max Christie and pay Irving up to $43 million for the first season of a four-year deal totaling $187 million.

There are other permutations, such as including D’Angelo Russell or Rui Hachimura in a sign-and-trade. Sign-and-trading one of Wenyen Gabriel, Troy Brown or Tristan Thompson could also bump up Irving’s first-year salary another $1.5 million or so. (I also am presuming the Lakers would have to throw another pick into this, but it has no cap implications.)

However, a sign-and-trade would also hard cap the Lakers, who would have only four players under contract, need to sign at least 10 more and have only about $40 million to pull it off — including re-signing Austin Reaves and Hachimura. For that reason, the lower Irving’s first-year salary is at the end of the deal, the more plausible a sign-and-trade is from L.A.’s end … but the less plausible it is for Irving.

(06-08-2023, 06:57 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: Ha!  I predicted Wood will sign for $18m/year.  For some reason, fans here have soured on him like they're Kidd's roommate or something.  20/10 big with 39%3pt is valuable in this league.

(06-08-2023, 06:57 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: Ha!  I predicted Wood will sign for $18m/year.  For some reason, fans here have soured on him like they're Kidd's roommate or something.  20/10 big with 39%3pt is valuable in this league.

(06-08-2023, 06:11 PM)HAguiar95 Wrote: I'll go ahead and remove Randle and Markkanen cause they're PFs.

Looking at that list, unless they are old (Lopez/Vucevic) or have injury concearns (Porzingis, Williams III), all of them have higher value than Ayton. We're going for Ayton cause he's a distressed asset that probably needs a fresh start.

I'll be ok if we have our new center for a drop down in the draft (no further then say #21) or for expirings, which leaves:

Nurkic, Capela, Ayton as the ones I could see available for that price.

If we want a better piece than that, we probably would have to include #10 and get no pick in return (maybe a second?), which I'd be against.

(06-08-2023, 11:40 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: I know it does not seem likely, but I´d approve of a Ayton/CP3 package for two reasons. I think Ayton is underrated at this point and $30M is close to fair value for 20/10 center at the age of 25. #2 I think CP3 would be a great mentor for Luka., just like I thought Westbrook would be. Both hold themselves to high standards and they´d show Luka what it takes to be mentally and physically 100% prepared for a season and a game. Both have the natural authority and confidence to call out Luka and unlike laid back Dirk (who is a leader by example) they´d probably be in his face. So even if CP3, the on court player has very limited value imho, he does have locker room value.

(06-08-2023, 07:57 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: This is good perspective.  I’d probably put Ayton over KAT also, but I don’t like KAT.

I think we all need to ask ourselves “what outcome is it most likely that Dan will be defending and 1/3 of the board lose their minds over”?  Right now, the player that comes closest to that is Ayton (though there is a price at which I'm not interested either).

(06-08-2023, 11:58 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: https://twitter.com/1053ss/status/1666945563642798081?s=46&t=Fmdr94oXagcEyy75KJqaFg

(06-08-2023, 07:57 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: This is good perspective.  I’d probably put Ayton over KAT also, but I don’t like KAT.

I think we all need to ask ourselves “what outcome is it most likely that Dan will be defending and 1/3 of the board lose their minds over”?  Right now, the player that comes closest to that is Ayton (though there is a price at which I'm not interested either).

(06-08-2023, 07:57 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: (though there is a price at which I'm not interested either).

(06-09-2023, 07:04 AM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: Regardless of how you look at it, according to 2022/23 performance, Ayton is at best the 14th-15th center.  That's not worth $104m/3yrs.  Distressed asset.

(06-09-2023, 10:21 AM)DallasMaverick Wrote: In the old days, I'd be very interested in a player like Ayton.  Or Ben Simmons.  Or John Collins. Or Tobias Harris.  Guys who could become serviceable parts of a good team, maybe even a championship team, but had contracts significantly bigger than their performance.

But, what the new CBA is teaching us is that there is no room on a championship roster for underperforming contracts.

Maybe we'd be tempted to exchange some of our negative-value contracts (Bertans, McGee, maybe THJ? Or Bullock?) for other teams' negative contracts.  But Ayton's contract is REALLY negative, IMO, and hangs around on your books for a long time.

(06-09-2023, 11:40 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: Denver is more active than the Mavs are and they are in the finals still.  ha

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1667189384162975744

(06-09-2023, 10:21 AM)DallasMaverick Wrote: In the old days, I'd be very interested in a player like Ayton.  Or Ben Simmons.  Or John Collins. Or Tobias Harris.  Guys who could become serviceable parts of a good team, maybe even a championship team, but had contracts significantly bigger than their performance.

But, what the new CBA is teaching us is that there is no room on a championship roster for underperforming contracts.

Maybe we'd be tempted to exchange some of our negative-value contracts (Bertans, McGee, maybe THJ? Or Bullock?) for other teams' negative contracts.  But Ayton's contract is REALLY negative, IMO, and hangs around on your books for a long time.

(06-09-2023, 12:05 PM)The Jom Wrote: Like the exercise. Disagree with the results. Potential and youth aren’t factored in (Bam), and team support isn’t factored out (Brook). Defensive ability also seems undervalued (Myles). Let me be the outcast here who thinks Ayton would be an ideal fit.

My top 10 in revised order (numbers showing original rank):

1. Nikola Jokic, 28yo rating:75.74

2. Joel Embiid, 29yo rating:75.66

8. Bam Adebayo, 25yo rating:60.77

4. Jaren Jackson Jr., 23yo rating:62.87

3. Anthony Davis, 30yo rating:70.08

17. Deandre Ayton, 24yo rating:54.42

9. Rudy Gobert, 30yo rating:59.99

28. Walker Kessler, 21yo rating:46.67

6. Domantas Sabonis, 27yo rating:61.37

22. Myles Turner, 27yo rating:50.22



Honorable mention:
7. Evan Mobley, 21yo rating:61.08
10. Jarrett Allen, 25yo rating:59.8
14. Karl-Anthony Towns, 27yo rating:57.09
15. Naz Reid, 23yo rating:54.44
16. Robert Williams III, 25yo rating:54.43
18. Wendell Carter Jr., 24yo rating:53.56
24. Jakob Poeltl, 27yo rating:48.56
25. Mitchell Robinson, 25yo rating:48.3
26. Clint Capela, 29yo rating:48.23
27. Jusuf Nurkic, 28yo rating:47.96
31. Christian Koloko, 22yo rating:45.34
38. Jalen Duren, 19yo rating:40.51
41. Onyeka Okongwu, 22yo rating:39.93
54. James Wiseman, 22yo rating:30.74

(06-09-2023, 12:05 PM)The Jom Wrote: Like the exercise. Disagree with the results. Potential and youth aren’t factored in (Bam), and team support isn’t factored out (Brook). Defensive ability also seems undervalued (Myles). Let me be the outcast here who thinks Ayton would be an ideal fit.

My top 10 in revised order (numbers showing original rank):

1. Nikola Jokic, 28yo rating:75.74

2. Joel Embiid, 29yo rating:75.66

8. Bam Adebayo, 25yo rating:60.77

4. Jaren Jackson Jr., 23yo rating:62.87

3. Anthony Davis, 30yo rating:70.08

17. Deandre Ayton, 24yo rating:54.42

9. Rudy Gobert, 30yo rating:59.99

28. Walker Kessler, 21yo rating:46.67

6. Domantas Sabonis, 27yo rating:61.37

22. Myles Turner, 27yo rating:50.22



Honorable mention:
7. Evan Mobley, 21yo rating:61.08
10. Jarrett Allen, 25yo rating:59.8
14. Karl-Anthony Towns, 27yo rating:57.09
15. Naz Reid, 23yo rating:54.44
16. Robert Williams III, 25yo rating:54.43
18. Wendell Carter Jr., 24yo rating:53.56
24. Jakob Poeltl, 27yo rating:48.56
25. Mitchell Robinson, 25yo rating:48.3
26. Clint Capela, 29yo rating:48.23
27. Jusuf Nurkic, 28yo rating:47.96
31. Christian Koloko, 22yo rating:45.34
38. Jalen Duren, 19yo rating:40.51
41. Onyeka Okongwu, 22yo rating:39.93
54. James Wiseman, 22yo rating:30.74