(05-28-2023, 07:41 AM)F Gump Wrote: Yeah, I figure that he might get an offer in that vicinity.  I'm not convinced he's worth more than the MLE (12.2M) or a bit more, per his play in WAS too being considered. But teams often do ignore the track record and become enamored by the last few games. Recency bias.

Even at the top end of that, Kyrie's only able to get about 36.M in a snt with Rui, Beas,Vandy. I don't think that gets off the ground.

(05-28-2023, 10:07 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: Thinking out loud, maybe there's something here with PHX.....?

Lakers send Rui+Beasley to PHX. Mavs send THJ to PHX and Kyrie to Lakers. Mavs receive Ayton+Lakers 2029.

PHX get Rui+Beasley+THJ for Ayton, which is quite the haul as it's potentially 2 starters. Lakers get their 3rd star and can keep Reaves. Mavs get their starting center and a future first that opens up a lot of trades with #10+27+29.

(05-28-2023, 01:10 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Maybe something more simple (leaving out Rui avoids BYC and hard cap for Phoenix).   BTW, I don’t think we have to accommodate Kyrie’s max in a deal with LA.  They can’t get there through cap room and $46.9mm is just a killer to their ability to fill the roster and stay under the apron.  Trade matching is one issue in setting his number.  But, paying who they want to keep and using their exception are also factors.

Phoenix Out:  Ayton (32.4)                       Phoenix In:  Beasley, Bamba and Reggie (36.5)
LA Out:  Beasley, Vandy, Bamba (31.4).    LA In:  Kyrie (up to 39.35)
Dallas Out:  Kyrie, Reggie (up to 49.8).     Dallas In:  Ayton, Vandy (37.1)

Dallas is probably owed some draft compensation here.  If THJ needs to be in instead of Reggie, I suspect Shamet comes to Dallas.  So, Phoenix gets Beasley, Bamba and THJ (44.7) for Ayton and Shamet (42.7).  Dallas gets Ayton, Shamet and Vandy (47.3) for Kyrie and THJ (up to 57.2).  Kyrie’s number doesn’t change because the LA outgoing didn’t change.

(05-27-2023, 03:06 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: I don´t think you understant how DFG% works. Turner gave up 49.7% overall. Inside 6ft he gave up 58.5%. That´s not abysmal. It´s pretty good for a big because the expected outcome was 65.1%. -6.6%.
Wood on the other hand did not defend as many attempt close to the rim. Overall he gave up 48.5% compared to the expected outcome fo 48%. +0.5%. Wood actually  had better numbers inside the paint this season. -7.4%. When he actually tried to protect the rim (much lower volume) his shot defense numbers look pretty good.


But that´s obviously not the whole story. Tracking data isn´t telling us anything about the circumstances of shot attempts. I like to use it for bigs because shot defense inside the paint strongly correlates with the eyetest when it comes to rim protection. In the last few seasons the ranking was dominated by Gobert and Lopez.

To get an idea about overall defensive impact I would take +/- numbers over anything else. Ideally in a big sample size. Turner has been a consistent positive for his team over multiple seasons. With different lineups next to him. Different coaches. Different schemes. As a single big. Next to Sabonis. On a playoff team. On a tanking team.
Going along with various regression of +/- data like RAPM or RPM that all rank Turner as one of the best defenders over the last five seasons.

This season clearly hasn´t been as good as previous ones but considering the circumstances (teammates, bigger role on offense, tanking) I am not willing to ignore his performance in the previous seasons.


My personal opinion when it comes to rebounding is similar to my take on defense. I couldn´t care less about individual rebounding numbers. Over the years we have seen too many bigs that averaged 10-15 rebounds per game that had a negative impact on team rebounding percentage.
Metrics like REB% or adjust REB chance tell us that Steven Adams or Brook Lopez are terrible rebounders. But if we look at on/off data their teams are performing a lot better on the boards with both on the floor. How is that possible? In my opinion the primary role of the big is to boxout. Requires discipline and unselfishness. Priority for a big like Lopez or Adams isn´t the ball. It´s the opposing big.

I wouldn´t put Turner in the same category as Adams or Lopez but I also don´t think that he is as bad as the counting stats suggest. Based on the eyetest he tends to be over aggressive on shot contest and can take himself out of position for the rebound but overall he isn´t hurting his team on the defensive board. Offensive rebounding is more about the scheme. As a stretch big he isn´t getting as many opportunities to crash the board.

Edit. Sorry for derailing. Somehow turned into a monologue about my basketball/stats/advanced metrics philosophy.

(05-28-2023, 01:10 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Maybe something more simple (leaving out Rui avoids BYC and hard cap for Phoenix).   BTW, I don’t think we have to accommodate Kyrie’s max in a deal with LA.  They can’t get there through cap room and $46.9mm is just a killer to their ability to fill the roster and stay under the apron.  Trade matching is one issue in setting his number.  But, paying who they want to keep and using their exception are also factors.

Phoenix Out:  Ayton (32.4)                       Phoenix In:  Beasley, Bamba and Reggie (36.5)
LA Out:  Beasley, Vandy, Bamba (31.4).    LA In:  Kyrie (up to 39.35)
Dallas Out:  Kyrie, Reggie (up to 49.8).     Dallas In:  Ayton, Vandy (37.1)

Dallas is probably owed some draft compensation here.  If THJ needs to be in instead of Reggie, I suspect Shamet comes to Dallas.  So, Phoenix gets Beasley, Bamba and THJ (44.7) for Ayton and Shamet (42.7).  Dallas gets Ayton, Shamet and Vandy (47.3) for Kyrie and THJ (up to 57.2).  Kyrie’s number doesn’t change because the LA outgoing didn’t change.

(05-28-2023, 01:36 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: Add in a LAL 2029 FRP to Dallas and out of all the deals I think this is the absolute best outcome. 

I also think every team gets exactly what they want. PHX gets their depth and center replacement. LAL get their star (and unbalance their team yet again). 

Mavs get a young center and a defensive wing, while reloading on a FRP to go shopping for a better fitting 2nd star. Getting LAL 2029 allows the Mavs to realistically go shopping for a Siakam, OG, Lavine, etc.

This is my ideal scenario now.

(05-28-2023, 07:09 PM)BigDirk41 Wrote: I think it's speaks volumes of the state of this franchise that the majority on here are now ok with turning Kyrie into a couple of role players and a pick. No offense to anyone,  but I don't understand. Also Luka is gone if they lose Kyrie for pennies on the dollar. We gave up a LOT to get Kyrie so we can't afford to give him away.

(05-28-2023, 12:22 PM)omahen Wrote: The Kyrie thing at max, it makes even less sense for Lakers, imho. They would be basically left with AD, LeBron, Kyrie, Reaves and vet minimums. AD is a 50 game regular season player and LeBron can't play at 100 % through regular season anymore. I think they need way more depth. Without Kyrie taking way less money, I just don't see it. But, if he does, Mavs are left with nothing.

(05-28-2023, 09:09 PM)Branduil Wrote: Imagine how much money the Mavs could have saved if Cuban had just been willing to pay a younger and better PG $30 million a year

(05-28-2023, 11:30 PM)Jym Wrote: even his 5 year max at $35 mil a year is seeming pretty good right about now