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+--- Thread: Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms (/showthread.php?tid=2444)
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RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - dirkfansince1998 - 05-27-2023
(05-27-2023, 11:36 AM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: Someone please explain to me the fascination with Turner.
Stretch? Kinda. Only 1.5 3ptrs/game at 37.3%. That'd put him 8th on the Mavs from last year (behind Wood).
Rebounder? Meh. Only 7.5rbs with a Reb% of 12.8. That'd put him squarely behind Wood and McGee in %, and behind Luka in rbs.
Defense? Nope. 116.3 DefRtg. That'd put him 9th on the Mavs from last year (behind Luka).
Scoring? Kinda. 18pts puts him behind Luka and Kyrie.
Cheap? Meh. $20.9mill.
Why on Earth would we want Turner over Jarrett Allen?
Defense. Among the best when it comes to defensive on/off over the last five seasons. Top 3 in blks and DFG% around the rim over the last five seasons.
Rebounding. Pretty solid team rebounding impact on the defensive end (positive on/off in the last five seasons).
Scoring. Take a look at his shot chart. He can do it all. 3-point range. Midrange. Extended post. Ellbow. Post. Finishing at the rim. On elite efficiency (higher volume + efficiency compared to Wood).
Not sure if I would take him over Allen but there is a lot to like about his game. My only concern is his health.
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - omahen - 05-27-2023
(05-27-2023, 10:49 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: There isn’t a big TPE for Dallas
Is this specific for SnT? I don't know all CBA details. My simple thought was, Mavs are sending out a big Kyrie salary and receiving only a small salary back. The difference becoming TE.
The rest I agree with Itsgotime. Use cap space to generate trades. Teams will be looking to dump salaries. Well, at least they should explore the option, before jumping and overpaying someone in FA.
RE: Jason Terry - khaled1987 - 05-27-2023
(05-25-2023, 06:24 AM)Jason Terry Wrote: I still think Nets make the most sense for trade down. Jazz and Pacers are also obvious candidates.
Nets have Oneale and DFS. Don’t think they would give up Claxton. They need to cut salaries so i could see them wanting to move DFS to open space for retaining Cam Johnson. Also, while 21 and 22 would be great i could see them giving us one of those along with DFS to move up to 10
Something like:
Mavs get: DFS, Mills and 22
Nets get: 10 and Bullock and Mcgee while saving short and long term $
If Nets wants 10, the negotiation should start with our 2029 pick or otherwise hang the phone.
Since Mavs drafted Luka, they never had all their 1st round picks, and it is a huge mess IMO.
First round picks are valuable trade currency, and we are almost basically out of most big trades because we are hindered with lack of picks
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - Ghost of Podkolzin - 05-27-2023
(05-27-2023, 12:00 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: Defense. Among the best when it comes to defensive on/off over the last five seasons. Top 3 in blks and DFG% around the rim over the last five seasons.
Rebounding. Pretty solid team rebounding impact on the defensive end (positive on/off in the last five seasons).
Scoring. Take a look at his shot chart. He can do it all. 3-point range. Midrange. Extended post. Ellbow. Post. Finishing at the rim. On elite efficiency (higher volume + efficiency compared to Wood).
Not sure if I would take him over Allen but there is a lot to like about his game. My only concern is his health.
First of all, unless you have a DeLorean that can do 88mph, the last 5 seasons matter none. Let's look at last year, not 5 years ago...
Defense... Pacers were 23rd in Dfg%/fg% +/- last year. Turner was -0.8% His Dfg% was an abysmal 49.7% Wood, who we said couldn't be on the court because of his defense was 48.5%.
Rebounding... dude is a terrible rebounder for a big. Let's look at rebounds and factor in deferred. This is where true rebounding capability resides. Adjust Reb% 56.2. That puts him behind Morris, Luka, Wood, Bullock, Kyrie, Bertans, Frank, DFS, McGee, THJ, Din, Hardy, Green, Holiday, and Maxi. Basically DEAD LAST if he were a Mav, the worst rebounding team in the league.
Scoring, ya, I already said his scoring is a plus. efg% of 61.2 is legit.
Point is what does this team need around Luka and Kyrie. Rebounding and defense. Myles is under-average to abysmal in both categories.
Jarrett Allen is 2 years younger, same $, and is exceedingly better at both rebounding and defense. Then, as you mentioned, health. Turner has averaged missing 32 games the last 3 years.
RE: Jason Terry - Ghost of Podkolzin - 05-27-2023
(05-27-2023, 12:48 PM)khaled1987 Wrote: If Nets wants 10, the negotiation should start with our 2029 pick or otherwise hang the phone.
Since Mavs drafted Luka, they never had all their 1st round picks, and it is a huge mess IMO.
First round picks are valuable trade currency, and we are almost basically out of most big trades because we are hindered with lack of picks
I completely agree. DFS doesn't move the needle for me at #10. We are in dire need of rebounding and DFS isn't it.
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - ItsGoTime - 05-27-2023
(05-27-2023, 12:00 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: Defense. Among the best when it comes to defensive on/off over the last five seasons. Top 3 in blks and DFG% around the rim over the last five seasons.+41
Rebounding. Pretty solid team rebounding impact on the defensive end (positive on/off in the last five seasons).
Scoring. Take a look at his shot chart. He can do it all. 3-point range. Midrange. Extended post. Ellbow. Post. Finishing at the rim. On elite efficiency (higher volume + efficiency compared to Wood).
Not sure if I would take him over Allen but there is a lot to like about his game. My only concern is his health.
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - Jakeospikez - 05-27-2023
My preference is definitely to draft Wallace with #10 if Kyrie doesn't want to re-sign here. It's legal to add players to a S&T right? I think I'd prefer just taking Rui and be hardcapped in that case along with Vand, maybe Bamba as well just for expiring depth pieces that you can take a flyer on and see if they work out. Would need to know the 3rd team involved for the best pieces to move though. Giving up Kyrie just for 2029 and Vand is a very light return. Kyrie for #17 + 2029 + Vand?
If choosing between #17 and 2029 I'd want #17 from LA still instead of the 2029 if that pick ended up being Leonard Miller. Get started on the development of the young players asap. The other option is package the LA 2029 with THJ's expiring + filler this coming TDL or next offseason for a quality player (please don't go plan powder star hunting again) which would be ok as long as they had some realistic targets in mind. I still prefer just taking the player at #17 right now if it's a guy they love. Wallace & Miller both look to have high floors and should be quality bench players immediately imo with a good chance to eventually become starters. Another option with #17 is drafting a wing to replace Green, say Hawkins cause it's already reported that the Mavs brought him in for a workout, and use Green in a trade for a 4/5 if they prefer to not give Green a big payday coming up.
Idk why people are so picky about Turner. If he's available in any deal the Mavs would be lucky to have him. Just would still like to have a drafted player or 2 and not just only trade #10 for a big and nothing else. He's easily a quality piece on a contending roster. The missed games, imo some of it was due to the Pacers tanking (esp 2 seasons ago) and telling him to sit out the rest of the season because he'd help them win games, which would've been really bad. Just have some depth pieces behind him like a draft pick or MLE player. Preferably players with upside that could use the extra playtime. May still have Maxi to fill in for starts if he's injured as well. Not gonna start diving into random stats about why he's good or not good. Just watch him play. Long arms, still mobile enough. Blocks a ton of shots, protects the rim, stretches the floor. Not overly concerned with rebounding. Can be covered by a solid rebounding 4 + Luka. Better at being the roll man since Sabonis left and he's played with Haliburton. I'm fine with him or Allen but I would take Turner because floor spacing is just too important these days and rim protecting stretch 5s are very hard to find. Main issue still is I don't see a path for the Mavs to trade for Turner unless there's some young player the Pacers are interested in that fits their timeline better for a 3 team swap. Allen looks more gettable.
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - dirkfansince1998 - 05-27-2023
(05-27-2023, 12:54 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: First of all, unless you have a DeLorean that can do 88mph, the last 5 seasons matter none. Let's look at last year, not 5 years ago...
Defense... Pacers were 23rd in Dfg%/fg% +/- last year. Turner was -0.8% His Dfg% was an abysmal 49.7% Wood, who we said couldn't be on the court because of his defense was 48.5%.
Rebounding... dude is a terrible rebounder for a big. Let's look at rebounds and factor in deferred. This is where true rebounding capability resides. Adjust Reb% 56.2. That puts him behind Morris, Luka, Wood, Bullock, Kyrie, Bertans, Frank, DFS, McGee, THJ, Din, Hardy, Green, Holiday, and Maxi. Basically DEAD LAST if he were a Mav, the worst rebounding team in the league.
Scoring, ya, I already said his scoring is a plus. efg% of 61.2 is legit.
Point is what does this team need around Luka and Kyrie. Rebounding and defense. Myles is under-average to abysmal in both categories.
Jarrett Allen is 2 years younger, same $, and is exceedingly better at both rebounding and defense. Then, as you mentioned, health. Turner has averaged missing 32 games the last 3 years.
I don´t think you understant how DFG% works. Turner gave up 49.7% overall. Inside 6ft he gave up 58.5%. That´s not abysmal. It´s pretty good for a big because the expected outcome was 65.1%. -6.6%.
Wood on the other hand did not defend as many attempt close to the rim. Overall he gave up 48.5% compared to the expected outcome fo 48%. +0.5%. Wood actually had better numbers inside the paint this season. -7.4%. When he actually tried to protect the rim (much lower volume) his shot defense numbers look pretty good.
But that´s obviously not the whole story. Tracking data isn´t telling us anything about the circumstances of shot attempts. I like to use it for bigs because shot defense inside the paint strongly correlates with the eyetest when it comes to rim protection. In the last few seasons the ranking was dominated by Gobert and Lopez.
To get an idea about overall defensive impact I would take +/- numbers over anything else. Ideally in a big sample size. Turner has been a consistent positive for his team over multiple seasons. With different lineups next to him. Different coaches. Different schemes. As a single big. Next to Sabonis. On a playoff team. On a tanking team.
Going along with various regression of +/- data like RAPM or RPM that all rank Turner as one of the best defenders over the last five seasons.
This season clearly hasn´t been as good as previous ones but considering the circumstances (teammates, bigger role on offense, tanking) I am not willing to ignore his performance in the previous seasons.
My personal opinion when it comes to rebounding is similar to my take on defense. I couldn´t care less about individual rebounding numbers. Over the years we have seen too many bigs that averaged 10-15 rebounds per game that had a negative impact on team rebounding percentage.
Metrics like REB% or adjust REB chance tell us that Steven Adams or Brook Lopez are terrible rebounders. But if we look at on/off data their teams are performing a lot better on the boards with both on the floor. How is that possible? In my opinion the primary role of the big is to boxout. Requires discipline and unselfishness. Priority for a big like Lopez or Adams isn´t the ball. It´s the opposing big.
I wouldn´t put Turner in the same category as Adams or Lopez but I also don´t think that he is as bad as the counting stats suggest. Based on the eyetest he tends to be over aggressive on shot contest and can take himself out of position for the rebound but overall he isn´t hurting his team on the defensive board. Offensive rebounding is more about the scheme. As a stretch big he isn´t getting as many opportunities to crash the board.
Edit. Sorry for derailing. Somehow turned into a monologue about my basketball/stats/advanced metrics philosophy.
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - StepBackJay - 05-27-2023
FYI I made this into a blog using ChatGPT for fun lol
https://medium.com/@mavsforum/analyzing-myles-turners-potential-fit-with-the-mavericks-dispelling-misconceptions-8e159d14cd48
https://twitter.com/StepBackJay77/status/1662650298567995394
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - DanSchwartzgan - 05-28-2023
(05-26-2023, 05:54 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: I'm very curious why you're confident Kyrie is leaving at this point? Don't get me wrong, there is a lot of smoke pointing to Kyrie to LA (especially given the report that the Mavs might not offer the max). But what in this week tipped you over the edge?
Here is the latest from Stein:
"A popular topic all week, in the wake of Denver sweeping the Lakers out of the Western Conference finals, was the notion that L.A. could emerge as a potential sign-and-trade destination for Dallas’ free agent-to-be Kyrie Irving.
While we await a clear indication about the Lakers’ intentions there, with no verifiable signal to date that pursuing Irving is among their offseason priorities, league sources say that the Mavericks would have no interest in a sign-and-trade with the Lakers that features D'Angelo Russell as the primary Dallas-bound player. All indications are that the Mavericks remain intent on re-signing Irving."
I think there are reporters out there (Stein and Jake Fischer are among them) who have some picture of what is going on. You can go back once all the dust settles from the TDL and Free Agency and see they got some things right or were on paths that came close. You can read Stein here and the main takeaway might be that Dallas WILL NOT center a package around D-Lo. The fact that Stein is even discussing what a package might look like (or not look like) makes me feel like Kyrie staying is anything but settled. Dallas won't do this...OK, what will they do is where my mind goes. If the door was completely closed, Stein would write it differently.
Earlier this week, Fischer gave us a list of teams that were interested in Beasley at the TDL. One near miss was Beasley and Vanderbilt for John Collins. Maybe the package for Irving is Beasley, Vanderbilt and Rui (plus 2029) with Beasley and Vandy being moved on for someone else.
It feels to me that Dallas and Phoenix are also negotiating an Ayton deal in the media (with Stein also being the mouthpiece). None of this means this will or won't happen. Hundreds of things that don't happen get discussed. But it all makes me feel it is on the table at the right price.
Edit: Is there a world where our front court is Ayton (or Allen) plus Collins and Rui?
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - DanSchwartzgan - 05-28-2023
(05-27-2023, 12:25 PM)omahen Wrote: Is this specific for SnT? I don't know all CBA details. My simple thought was, Mavs are sending out a big Kyrie salary and receiving only a small salary back. The difference becoming TE.
I don't think anyone makes more cap mistakes than me, but I will take a shot. The good news is FG usually comes behind me and cleans up my messes. My answer would be that it depends on assumptions and order of operation.
My assumption is LA is operating over the cap. Yes, Dallas would get a TPE if it traded KI into LA cap space, but that limits both LA and Kyrie. If LA is over the cap, then this is a salary matching deal. So, they have to send salary somewhere that allows them to bring back whatever they are paying KI. If it is multiple players going out from LA, then it is a simultaneous trade and no TPE is created.
There is an aggregation rule related to non-simultaneous. This is where it gets muddy for me. If a deal requires aggregation, it is simultaneous (no TE). If it is non-simultaneous (to get a TE), it cant aggregate players. Let's talk through two situations and maybe FG will help us out.
1. LA sends multiple players to a cap room team with total salary outgoing of $40mm (one makes $18mm and another makes $22mm). If that creates a single $40mm TE, we are good to go and Dallas sends Kyrie into that TE and creates a new one (close to what you were hoping)
2. If that creates two TE's (one for $18mm and one for $22mm), then the non-simultaneous thing doesn't help unless there is a single LA outgoing player who will get paid by a cap-room team about the same amount Kyrie would be willing to sign for with LA.
I don't think that player exists on the LA roster. But here is how it might work in a different situation. Philly S&T's Harden to Houston at $40mm for a protected second round pick. Then Kyrie can be traded to Philly for a protected second at any number up to $40.1mm and Dallas gets the TE for that amount. The key, at least to my understanding, is there was no aggregation in establishing that TE and it was a non-simultaneous trade.
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - F Gump - 05-28-2023
(05-28-2023, 06:34 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Maybe the package for Irving is Beasley, Vanderbilt and Rui (plus 2029) with Beasley and Vandy being moved on for someone else.
It needs to be noted that if the Mavs plan in getting Beasley/Vandy is to move them for someone else, then that would undoubtedly have to be part of the same trade (3-way).
As for the idea that Beasley/Vandy will land Collins, it raises other questions: (1) do you even want Collins, give the bloated nature of his contract versus his production, and (2) if you are willing (and can find a hard-cap-friendly way) to take Collins, and assuming his price is "please take him" because of the contract, can't you just land him in a simple DAL-ATL swap using something significantly less expensive than Kyrie?
About the pick to Dallas, given the talent (an all-star) going to LA, with the meh that's theoretically paid for him (Beasley, Hachimura [with presumably bloated contract], Vandy), I would expect demand that the deal includes both 2023 and 2029 picks.
ABOUT RUI AND TRADE MATCHING -- I don't know what number you see for Hachimura, but there's certainly a number that is too absurd to bother. And at numbers I see as reasonable (in light of his sketchy track record) or even a bit beyond that, the package of Beasley, Vandy, Hachimura [with new contract] looks to be well short of matching Kyrie's salary if it's in the 40-47M range.
...Keep in mind Rui's salary will only count 50% due to Base Year rules, and LA will be hard-capped, with the possibility that trading for Kyrie at a top salary puts them at risk of literally not having enough room to match a strong Reaves offer. On the other end, DAL will have to be under the apron and hard-capped, in order to operate at a big enough spread to counter the Rui BY issue, yet the bigger the Rui salary the more likely the numbers don't work.
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - ItsGoTime - 05-28-2023
I was thinking Rui for $15-18M would be reasonable. Maybe on a flat amount for 3-4 years.
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - F Gump - 05-28-2023
(05-28-2023, 06:39 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: " There isn’t a big TPE for Dallas "
" Is this specific for SnT? "
xxxxxx (explanation of thinking) xxxx.
I didn't weigh into this before because I wasn't sure what you were thinking, and fyi I didn't work through your explanation here to omahen, but maybe I can offer some rules insight that might make it all easier to see.
1 If the Mavs traded Kyrie to LA at a huge contract - I'll use the max of 47M - and then took back much smaller salary - let's say Vandy at 5M - then they would get a TPE for the difference of 42M.
2 However, keep in mind that TPE is not cap room, so the Mavs only way to use that TPE would be to make a trade in which they took back more salary and sent out much less. You can't sign someone for the TPE amount (although, with cooperation, you can obtain a player via SNT with the other team doing the signing part). But if there's not a team wanting to cooperate with some sort of trade or SNT to give up a player the Mavs want, then the TPE is useless. Having a TPE doesn't allow the Mavs to sign anyone into the TPE amount.
3 As long as the Mavs have that TPE, it is charged against the cap and eats up 42M of cap room (or, if part of it is used, whatever amount remains).
4 However, the Mavs could simply toss the TPE (or a remainder) in the trash in favor of the cap room that might be possible by doing so. The net effect is that you in essence didn't get a TPE.
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - F Gump - 05-28-2023
(05-28-2023, 07:29 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: I was thinking Rui for $15-18M would be reasonable. Maybe on a flat amount for 3-4 years.
Yeah, I figure that he might get an offer in that vicinity. I'm not convinced he's worth more than the MLE (12.2M) or a bit more, per his play in WAS too being considered. But teams often do ignore the track record and become enamored by the last few games. Recency bias.
Even at the top end of that, Kyrie's only able to get about 36.M in a snt with Rui, Beas,Vandy. I don't think that gets off the ground.
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - ItsGoTime - 05-28-2023
(05-28-2023, 07:41 AM)F Gump Wrote: Yeah, I figure that he might get an offer in that vicinity. Recency bias. But teams often do ignore the track record and become enamored by the last few games. I'm not convinced he's worth more than the MLE (12.2M) or a bit more, per his play in WAS too.Isn’t the difference also a TPE or is TPE not in play in that particular instance?
Even at the top end of that, Kyrie's only able to get about 36M in a snt with Rui, Beas,Vandy. I don't think that gets off the ground.
Edit: Also, you’re probably right with his value to this point. I was thinking we would pay him as a low end starter as that is what he would probably be here. The flat salary was to cover our bases in case he doesn’t work out. It would require his buy in though if he got bigger offers. We do have a decent pitch at yhe moment as he would be our, by far best player at yhat position with mostly unlimited minutes.
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - F Gump - 05-28-2023
(05-28-2023, 07:43 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Isn’t the difference also a TPE or is TPE not in play in that particular instance?
I have no idea what you are thinking/asking here. I'm not following how you are asking TPE's might or might not come into play, in some way or another.
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - ItsGoTime - 05-28-2023
(05-28-2023, 07:45 AM)F Gump Wrote: I have no idea what you are thinking/asking here. I'm not following how you are asking TPE's might or might not come into play, in some way or another.Sorry for not being clear. In the scenario you talked about Beasley, Vandy and Rui only allowing Kyrie to get a starting salary of $36M. My question was, could LAL sign him to a higher agreed upon starting salary and the Mavs get a TE back for the difference?
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - F Gump - 05-28-2023
(05-28-2023, 07:51 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Sorry for not being clear. In the scenario you talked about Beasley, Vandy and Rui only allowing Kyrie to get a starting salary of $36M. My question was, could LAL not sign him to a higher agreed upon starting salary and the Mavs get a TE back for the difference?
HERE ARE THE CONTRACTS (not looking up numbers but these are close enough)
1 DAL trades Kyrie with a salary of 46.7 (which is a hair below the max, but the most that can be paid and avoid Base Year issues in trade)
2 LA trades Beasley (15M), Vandy (5M), Rui (18M)
WITH THOSE PARAMETERS
1 DAL can take all those players and gets a TPE of 8.7M
2 But, LA cannot take Kyrie, because they are not sending out enough salary to match his 46.7.
.... They get credit for 15, 5, and 9 (Rui is Base Year and only counts half). 29*1.25 + 100K is 36.35M, which is the most they could take back for that package. If they are over the apron, they can take back even less -- 29 *1.1 +100K = 32M.
3 DAL getting a TPE has no impact on LA being required to trade match. (LA is not sending it to them out of a bank of LA TPE's. TPE's don't work like that, although the Nelson's liked to explain them like that back in the day, when we didn't know better. It is a credit automatically dispensed by the NBA per the trade rules, when applicable.)
RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Lebron: "I got a lot to think about next year" - ItsGoTime - 05-28-2023
(05-28-2023, 08:05 AM)F Gump Wrote: HERE ARE THE CONTRACTS (not looking up numbers but these are close enough)Ok, that clears it up for me. I was thinking LAL had some cap room but not enough to make up the full Kyrie amount ($30M…I guess I didn’t figure that that money comes in based on renouncing/waiving everyone which Beasley is a part of. I was falsely thinking that his salary would add to the capspace for the LAL). Makes more sense now that my brain fog is lifted.
1 DAL trades Kyrie with a salary of 46.7 (which is a hair below the max, but the most that can be paid and avoid Base Year issues in trade)
2 LA trades Beasley (15M), Vandy (5M), Rui (18M)
WITH THOSE PARAMETERS
1 DAL can take all those players and gets a TPE of 8.7M
2 But, LA cannot take Kyrie, because they are not sending out enough salary to match his 46.7.
.... They get credit for 15, 5, and 9 (Rui is Base Year and only counts half). 29*1.25 + 100K is 36.35M, which is the most they could take back for that package. If they are over the apron, they can take back even less -- 29 *1.1 +100K = 32M.
3 DAL getting a TPE has no impact on LA being required to trade match. (LA is not sending it to them out of a bank of LA TPE's. TPE's don't work like that, although the Nelson's liked to explain them like that back in the day, when we didn't know better. It is a credit automatically dispensed by the NBA per the trade rules, when applicable.)