(02-09-2024, 08:30 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: After quick reading it feels like Wizards fans (while happy with the pick) are much more bummed than Hornet fans.  It will be interesting to watch Washington’s  game.  Would it be safe to assume to hope his game mimics what Gordon does for Denver?  Is that even in the ballpark?  I think Gordon is better but would love to see Washington play that style of game

(02-09-2024, 10:37 AM)surfpuckmd Wrote: This is well said.  We gave up our assets for some role players.  Only Gafford has been a net positive this season.  The other two have been bad.  We continually use assets to acquire a player then we turn on that player.   Then we use assets to either get rid of that player or swap him out for a similar-level player.  It's just dumb.  

Holding onto the 2027 1st would have allowed us to obtain a quality starting PF this coming summer.  Instead, we have PJ Washington.  He has a small chance to become that quality starter if only he improves on offense and defense while playing for Jason Kidd.  It's like we're investing our savings in raffle tickets.  It's possible that we win but the odds stacked against us.

(02-09-2024, 10:37 AM)surfpuckmd Wrote: Holding onto the 2027 1st would have allowed us to obtain a quality starting PF this coming summer. 

(02-09-2024, 10:59 AM)mvossman Wrote: I don't think our trading position is significantly worse that what it was prior to the TDL.  We will still have 2 firsts, and PJ is a young player on a good contract who would have value in a PF trade.  We can also now add Gafford who is another young player on a good contract (especially if you are starting him).  Unless PJ pulls a GWill, I think our trade position is similar to what it would have been.

(02-09-2024, 10:58 AM)surfpuckmd Wrote: PJ Washington is much less athletic than Aaron Gordon.  He's not nearly as good at finishing around the rim.  He doesn't rebound as well.  Aaron Gordon is an excellent defensive player.  PJ Washington is a below-average defensive player.  Both players cost a first-round pick.  

Denver is a great organization and the Mavericks are not.  Those are the differences.

(02-09-2024, 10:52 AM)surfpuckmd Wrote: You're not wrong but I'm not either.  It simply depends on your perspective.  If you spend 40k to buy a 4runner but then a year later, you trade it and 40k in cash for a Range Rover, you have spent 80k ultimately to obtain the Range Rover.  Minus the utility of driving that 4runner for a year which you could estimate.

Your way of looking at it is also correct.  You're just focusing on the immediate deal.  

It is possible that the Mavericks were sick of Grant Williams, recognized their mistake and wanted to desperately get rid of him even though we just paid a 2030 pick swap to obtain him.  

I think that's really concerning though.  We have done this repeatedly over the past 15 years.  We're not only bad at talent evaluation but we turn on our players very easily.  There's something pathologic there.  I think Cuban is the biggest part of it but Kidd and even Luka seem to contribute as well.  We're like a guy who has been divorced 11 times.  After a while, that guy needs to understand that he's the problem.  

Just in the past year we've turned on Christian Wood, JaVale McGee and Grant Williams.  Other good teams don't do this.  

The biggest issue is just the price we paid for PJ Washington.  It's like we traded the 4Runner for a Toyota Highlander with similar mileage.  Yet we also included 40k in the deal.  The other guy had a really good day.

(02-09-2024, 11:15 AM)Smitty Wrote: The point is, those are two different arguments. Most of what you said I can agree with to some degree and share your frustration when the Mavs strike out on a player.

I just want it to be clear that PJW did not 'cost' a FRP. Many keep saying it and it's just wrong.

His value to the Mavs was trading a protected FRP, a negative player - sizable contract, and receiving 2 SRP's.

(02-09-2024, 11:08 AM)surfpuckmd Wrote: It's worse than it should have been.  We would have had 3 first round picks this coming offseason had we not traded the 2027 1st for PJ.  I think that could have helped obtain an elite role player like Cam Johnson.  

The PJ enthusiasm is mostly based upon everyone's disgust with Grant Williams.  Grant was a disappointment here and everyone wanted to upgrade.  I don't believe many people have watched a lot of PJ Washington this season though.  I'm curious to hear from those who have.  What has he done well this season?  I've probably watched 10 Hornets games this season.  I'm a fan of the Mavs and Pelicans but I have bets on several other teams to win the NBA championship.  So, I have an interest in four other teams right now.  Anyway, PJ Washington is a very unremarkable player who doesn't seem to do anything particularly well.  

You're an analytics guy and I'm sure you've checked the metrics on him this season.  They're all pretty negative on PJ Washington.  

I think we paid a large price to trade one bad player for a guy who is maybe less bad.  PJ is bigger which is nice and his contract is a year shorter which I like.  Otherwise, this is not a good deal.

(02-09-2024, 11:31 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: A thought as I read the last bit of posts. We did not trade a full pick swap for GWill, we traded 1/2 of it for him and have 2 SRPs still left from it. We actually traded the pick swap to get off the last year of Reggie’s contract and 4 SRPs which we still have 2. So in essence we traded less than 1/2 of a pick swap for GWill. The pick swap has a chance to not be executed too (or swapping a few picks away, we still get a pick though), which means we traded RB for 4 SRPs.

(02-09-2024, 11:35 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Oh, another point. If Lively is out for 3-4 more games and Gafford shows to work well starting, I’m not all that confident that Lively is still the starter for the rest of the season. He still needs to figure out how to not pick up ticky tack fouls and Gafford has the tenure to have gotten that far. That will be important in the playoffs. Lively can still learn plenty off the bench.

(02-09-2024, 11:35 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Oh, another point. If Lively is out for 3-4 more games and Gafford shows to work well starting, I’m not all that confident that Lively is still the starter for the rest of the season. He still needs to figure out how to not pick up ticky tack fouls and Gafford has the tenure to have gotten that far. That will be important in the playoffs. Lively can still learn plenty off the bench.

(02-09-2024, 11:35 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Oh, another point. If Lively is out for 3-4 more games and Gafford shows to work well starting, I’m not all that confident that Lively is still the starter for the rest of the season. He still needs to figure out how to not pick up ticky tack fouls and Gafford has the tenure to have gotten that far. That will be important in the playoffs. Lively can still learn plenty off the bench.

(02-09-2024, 11:27 AM)mvossman Wrote: I am an analytics guy, but part of that involves looking at as large a sample as I can and looking at context.

Thats why I'm not going to overweight half of a disgruntled season vs the rest of his career.

Before this season he was a good young player with potential to get better.  He is still only 25.  

He shoots nearly 40% from 3 when wide open, but gets less of those shots than most of our players.  Luka effect.

I really think he will benefit defensively playing next to a legit center, instead of having to play that role himself.

I think its way to early to call PJ a bad player.  There was some risk in the trade, but it sounds like they were having issues with GWill in the locker room as well as on the court and he needed to go.