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Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms - Printable Version

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RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - Mavs2021 - 05-18-2023

You know why we always lose trades, besides being sucky negotiators? Cause we are so damn predictable.

Who is the team most likely to trade their lottery pick? Dallas.
Who is the team looking to upgrade with a veteran? Dallas.
Who is the team that values draft picks the least? Dallas.

So which team will get and accept the worst offers for a draft pick? Dallas.

You can´t build a winner, if you are so damn predictable. Where most teams would draw a line in the sand and simply bet on their talent evaluation, the Mavs will still make the shitty trade, cause eh better than just another useless draft pick.

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - Jakeospikez - 05-18-2023

After some brief thought, probably should just dismiss any ideas related to OG/Siakam. Those all instantly went into the trash the moment the Mavs failed to hit top 4 in the lottery. Pick 2 or 3 actually since they likely only move OG/Siakam for Scoot or Miller. Would have been similar to a Jrue/Ja situation if the Mavs moved up in 2019 but the Mavs never move up so too bad. Raps aren't rebuilding and don't need to shed salary. Portland is the one that will likely be doing a deal for OG/Siakam so the Raps can shift some star power over because their guards are weak.

Better stick to more realistic deals. Need to find some players that are like KCP quality but for the front court. Players with potential such as former lottery picks on bad teams, bad team situations, teams with bad cap situations, etc, i.e. KCP when he was on Detroit. FO needs to not f this up. Going for a player like OG is not going to work out. It will take literally every single positive asset (#10, Green, Hardy, 2027 1st) and the team will pretty much be the current Suns and just lose to a deeper & more well built team like the Nuggets. Mavs already made their star move with Kyrie, just need to fill the roster out with quality role players now.

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - Chicagojk - 05-18-2023

Seeing Rui play in LA, gets me wondering if there are a few more Wizards who could do well in a better environment. Avdija especially. He has not really found his legs in the NBA yet but is still young, has good size and plays defense pretty well. I just have trouble finding a fit right now. But I could see something at the deadline if Washington has another lost season. Avdija, Gafford and Wright/Morris for guys like Bullock, Bertans and a future first. Not sure if there is enough there for Washington to give up those guys for just a distant first plus two near expirings. That type of trade would be similar to the Lakers deadline deal though.

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - KillerLeft - 05-18-2023

(05-18-2023, 03:20 PM)Jakeospikez Wrote: After some brief thought, probably should just dismiss any ideas related to OG/Siakam. Those all instantly went into the trash the moment the Mavs failed to hit top 4 in the lottery. 

I think those went into the trash when they spent almost their entire wad on Kyrie Irving.

People are going to be very underwhelmed with the roster building that will take place between now and the moment Luka leaves, I suspect.

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - Jym - 05-18-2023

(05-18-2023, 05:37 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: People are going to be very underwhelmed with the roster building that will take place between now and the moment Luka leaves, I suspect.


I just hope people throw most of the blame on Cuban when he leaves instead of just heaping hate onto Luka 
Can't blame him at all if he has force himself out of here in a couple years

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - BigDirk41 - 05-18-2023

(05-18-2023, 06:14 PM)Jym Wrote: I just hope people throw most of the blame on Cuban when he leaves instead of just heaping hate onto Luka 
Can't blame him at all if he has force himself out of here in a couple years

I think most everyone with a brain will blame Cuban and not fault Luka at all for leaving this disaster of a franchise.

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - Jakeospikez - 05-18-2023

Idk about the average Mavs fan, but it's pretty easy to appease me. Convert Bertans/THJ/Bullock salaries into quality starting front court players however they need to do it. Hopefully keeping Green/Hardy in the process but we'll see what happens.

Cap should end up something like the Nuggets current cap setup. Top 6 on the payroll all high quality contributors.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/DEN.html

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - KillerLeft - 05-18-2023

(05-18-2023, 09:05 PM)Jakeospikez Wrote: Idk about the average Mavs fan, but it's pretty easy to appease me. Convert Bertans/THJ/Bullock salaries into quality starting front court players however they need to do it. Hopefully keeping Green/Hardy in the process but we'll see what happens.

See, and I think that would be far more difficult to pull off than anything they’ve done since drafting Luka.

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - KillerLeft - 05-18-2023

(05-18-2023, 06:14 PM)Jym Wrote: I just hope people throw most of the blame on Cuban when he leaves instead of just heaping hate onto Luka 
Can't blame him at all if he has force himself out of here in a couple years

Not only will some blame Luka, but by then many will have convinced themselves that Luka is the problem. 

I can feel myself slanting negative, and believe me, I don’t want to be that way. It’s just that we’ve seen these patterns play themselves out for like 20-30 years at this point. I would so love for them to rattle off a couple of smart decisions that give me hope.

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - F Gump - 05-18-2023

(05-18-2023, 12:21 PM)BigDirk41 Wrote: I was reading yesterday that the Lakers can only match 4/50 on Reeves. I do not know if this is accurate, but if it is, he's as good as gone. .

I think it's VERY inaccurate. Who wrote that?

Unless I am missing something, Reaves will be a sure thing for LAL this summer, as a Laker RFA who also has Arenas rights protection (limiting the size of offers that can be made to him). LA can match any offer (if they wish) using the EB rights, and also retain their full MLE.

There is just one caveat, which is that they have other FA's - Russell, Hachimura, and Beasley -- that they might want to keep. So they have to manage total team salary issues. In theory they could just not want to match his offer. But nothing will force them to lose Reaves, if he is their priority.

And they do have lots of room to work with. Before NT MLE, Russell, Beasley, Reaves, and Hachimure they will be about $30M under the cap and about $60M below the tax line, in rough numbers. I'm guessing they let Beasley walk and Reaves is kept. Not sure what else is a priority.

This is all under the assumption that those signing rules haven't changed. I've heard no mention that they have been tinkered with in the new CBA.

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - BigDirk41 - 05-18-2023

(05-18-2023, 10:42 PM)F Gump Wrote: I think it's VERY inaccurate. Who wrote that?

Unless I am missing something, Reaves will be a sure thing for LAL this summer, as a Laker RFA who also has Arenas rights protection (limiting the size of offers that can be made to him). LA can match any offer (if they wish) using the EB rights, and also retain their full MLE.

There is just one caveat, which is that they have other FA's - Russell, Hachimura, and Beasley -- that they might want to keep. So they have to manage total team salary issues. In theory they could just not want to match his offer. But nothing will force them to lose Reaves, if he is their priority.

And they do have lots of room to work with. Before NT MLE, Russell, Beasley, Reaves, and Hachimure they will be about $30M under the cap and about $60M below the tax line, in rough numbers. I'm guessing they let Beasley walk and Reaves is kept. Not sure what else is a priority. 

This is all under the assumption that those signing rules haven't changed. I've heard no mention that they have been tinkered with in the new CBA.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2023/05/17/austin-reaves-putting-lakers-in-impossible-spot-after-nba-playoffs/amp/
Maybe that article is saying that is all the Lakers can offer him, but can match anything someone else offers. I'm really not sure
Shams and others are reporting the 4/50 number.

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - BigDirk41 - 05-18-2023

Agreed that if they can flat out match anything, he's not leaving.

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - SleepingHero - 05-18-2023

I get that LAL can for sure match anything for Reeves on paper, but in reality do the Lakers really want to be paying Reeves north of 20 mil a year should a hungry team like Charlotte throw a bag at him and the Lakers are forced to match?

Maybe they do. He's young and has shown a lot of talent this run. Good teams do retain their homegrown guys (*Editors note: This is NOT related to Brunson*).

Lakers are always chasing the next big star. Hard to imagine they'd cap themselves out even further for a guy like Reeves when they balked on paying plenty of other role players. There has to be a number where the Lakers say "No thank you. You can have him."

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - F Gump - 05-19-2023

Sad to say, I think Shams or someone pulling his words out of context is playing semantics games to click-bait.

USING EARLY BIRD RIGHTS, the Lakers can only OFFER a deal that starts at "105% of average salary", which with max raises is about $50.8M over 4 years.

USING CAP ROOM they could OFFER a deal starting at a higher number.

But -- they can MATCH (using EB rights and Arenas rules) anything another team offers, and the biggest possible offer by another team would be 4 years 92M (with some potentially nasty payroll jumps in there that makes it a hard deal to offer, but an easy deal to match with LA getting to choose how the cap hit looks if matched).

There is a truth that LA may be concerned that the offers may be more than they PREFER to have to pay, based on Reaves playing well and upping his potential offers, but there's no scenario in which they are kept from the ability to match using RFA rights.

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - ItsGoTime - 05-19-2023

Someone told me recently that Atl has no interest in trading Capela. Ok. Would you do 10 and McGee for Okongwu?

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - Chicagojk - 05-19-2023

I think if the Mavs do move the pick, they will try names they have been attached to previously. Myles Turner. I am just not sure Indy will move him for a lottery pick. They have three first round picks this year (one of them in front of Dallas). They may very well view themselves as a young playoff team next year with a good offseason. I think Ayton will be a target. The tricky part is trying to find a fit for PHX. They are looking to win a championship next year. They are a front office who cares less about the draft than Dallas...but they have a new owner now. So it is tricky to find a match. Also, add a 20% Mavs bad negotiating tip for any trades we propose. I think John Collins would be another one. I think he would be preferred over Capella, but that is just my opinion. Is it enough for ATL to move up to 10 from 15 and get salary relief? The issue is it is not immediate salary relief. I think those are the top 3 names. I think Dallas has a competitive offer (not sure if it is the smartest move though), but finding a fit is difficult.

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - DanSchwartzgan - 05-19-2023

Watching Denver's come back last night made me want to dig into their team construction a little bit.  They essentially have six guys (and squeeze a few minutes out of Green).  The offense of Murray and Jokic is all that really matters down the stretch which is probably similar to Luka and Kyrie.  Yes, there are others who can hit an open shot, but the creation is coming from the stars in the playoffs.

They are a middle of the pack defensive team.  EPM and Raptor don't agree on who their good defenders are.  One attributes defensive success more to Jokic (3.6 Defensive Raptor) than KCP and Gordon (each of them rated 1.0...the same a Josh Green).  EPM has Gordon and KCP in the 96th and 85th percentile defensively and Jokic in the 63rd percentile.  No matter where the credit should go, we can probably all agree that it would be nice to have players like KCP and Gordon surrounding Luka/Kyrie.

Before we look at targets, let's define what we have in our non-star players.  

THJ had a surprisingly good year defensively last year.  DRap = 1.7.  DEPM = 66.  Dillon Brooks has the same DRap, but is a much better DEPM at 95.  As noted before, Josh had a DRap of 1.0...the same as KCP, and a DEPM of 63.  Powell shows up better than some might predict.  His DRap is 1.2 and his DEPM is 71.  The DEPM is similar to WCJ, Okongwu, Ayton and Zubac.  His best comps in DRap are WCJ, Okongwu, Sengun and Zubac.  If you just listed Powell's data, and his On/Off as Player X instead of the apparently triggering Dwight Powell, you'd have the profile of an excellent backup big.  For reference, DFS's DRap was 1.4 but DEPM was a career high 89.

Dallas has two must-starts in Luka and Irving.  If those are your starters, I'd argue Hardy can't start.  You might could get one more starter from among Green, THJ and Powell, but two of those guys need to come off the bench (Maxi and Reggie were actually worse defenders last season despite their reputations).  So, as so many have said, to be a good defensive team, we really need two more superior defensive players in the starting lineup.

Here are some top names based on D-Raptor (all but Capela and Claxton are FA's):

P. Reed (3.6).  Wow, except his DEPM at 68 doesn't match.  Ready to start?  Probably not.
D. Green (3.5)  
DiVincenzo (2.5)  This one jumps off the page to me.  DEPM also good at 84.  If we lose a guard in a trade, I'd do this.
Thybulle (2.5)  DD is the better offensive player and is unrestricted.  Give me DD
Capela/Claxton (2.4)  
M. Wagner (2.0)  Feels like the Hartenstein of 2023.  Unfortunately DEPM is only 42.
D. Brooks (1.7)  As mentioned before, DEPM is 95
K. Anderson (1.1)  Not a FA, but doesn't want to play with Gobert any more

Here are some top names based on DEPM:

D. Green (99)
Thybulle (98)
Claxton (97)
B. Lopez (97)
D. Brooks (95)
K. Anderson (93)  This is intriguing since he shows up well on both lists
LaVert (86)
DiVincenzo (86)
R. Oneale (81)  He's a 1.0 on DRap
PJ Washington (73)


I think there are two ways to look at what we have depending on where one places Luka

New Center/Powell
Luka/Maxi
Green/THJ
New Perimeter/Reggie
Irving/Hardy

New Center/Powell
New Big Wing/Maxi
Green/THJ
Kyrie/Reggie
Luka/Hardy

Conventional wisdom is the second grouping, but I wonder if making Luka the second tallest player and adding a perimeter defender might be just as effective.  DiVincenzo is certainly worth looking at in this regard.  Trade for a center and use your exception on DD?  You'd always have the flexibility to have Maxi close if need be (matchup dependent).  But someone controlling the paint with Green and DD disrupting things on the Perimeter wouldn't be bad.  And, both can hit outside shots really well.

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - dirkfansince1998 - 05-19-2023

What would it cost to turn Reggie Bullock into Kyle Anderson or RoCo? Cash, 2nd round pick?
After last season I am pretty much done with Bullock as a wing/guard defender. He basically has to guard the same kind of bigger wings as the mentioned names because his lateral mobility is gone.

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - DanSchwartzgan - 05-19-2023

(05-19-2023, 07:52 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: I think if the Mavs do move the pick, they will try names they have been attached to previously.  Myles Turner.  I am just not sure Indy will move him for a lottery pick.  They have three first round picks this year (one of them in front of Dallas).  They may very well view themselves as a young playoff team next year with a good offseason.    I think Ayton will be a target.  The tricky part is trying to find a fit for PHX.  They are looking to win a championship next year.  They are a front office who cares less about the draft than Dallas...but they have a new owner now.     

I was playing around with things that send Turner/THJ to Phoenix with Ayton coming to Dallas.  I kind of like that for both teams.  #10 and some salary would go to Indy and  maybe Phoenix gets a late first from Indy.  As you say, the trick is figuring out how Indy fills their center spot.  They have cap room, but the crop of centers in free agency isn't exactly inspiring other than maybe Poeltl.

There may be some picks available toward the top of the draft where they could consolidate and get a second star.  Or, maybe they like someone at 10 and would be willing to trade 7 back to someone.

One thought on trading back would be Claxton.  The issue with Claxton is Brooklyn has to wait until unrestricted free agency next summer to know if he will sign or not.  Even with a 40% raise, Claxton won't get near his market value by extending.  Indy could trade for him and extend him using cap room (like they did with Turner...in fact the agent is the same).  In fact, Indy HAS to use its room prior to the start of the season under the new rules.

So, I see a couple of paths that get Indy the center they need and allows them to make good use of our #10 pick.
(05-19-2023, 09:06 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I was playing around with things that send Turner/THJ to Phoenix with Ayton coming to Dallas.  

BTW, combining this with the post I did earlier in the day and assuming Reggie is the other outgoing salary and you use the MLE on DD, here is where you are:

Ayton            Powell
Luka              Maxi
Green            THJ
DiVincenzo     Hardy
Irving

I think Green and DD disrupting things on the perimeter with Ayton waiting in the lane would be a nightmare for opponents. And, if they have a bigger wing that Green can't guard, then Maxi to the rescue.

RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Windhorst: Unlikely Giannis extends contract this summer. - omahen - 05-19-2023

(05-19-2023, 08:39 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I think there are two ways to look at what we have depending on where one places Luka

New Center/Powell
Luka/Maxi
Green/THJ
New Perimeter/Reggie
Irving/Hardy

New Center/Powell
New Big Wing/Maxi
Green/THJ
Kyrie/Reggie
Luka/Hardy

Conventional wisdom is the second grouping, but I wonder if making Luka the second tallest player and adding a perimeter defender might be just as effective.  DiVincenzo is certainly worth looking at in this regard.  Trade for a center and use your exception on DD?  You'd always have the flexibility to have Maxi close if need be (matchup dependent).  But someone controlling the paint with Green and DD disrupting things on the Perimeter wouldn't be bad.  And, both can hit outside shots really well.

Lots of good stuff. I like DD idea, but he will likely want to get paid, so he can only be get for full MLE or close to it, imho.  I find it difficult to see first option better than the second. You need an on ball defender, which is covered in both versions. However, I think Mavs do need a big wing for following reasons. 

1) help with PnR. Kyrie is small and can't switch on center. He will be certainly targeted in playoffs. I think Mavs need a good big wing to help in those situations. Could also be used as a small ball five. I just can't rely on Maxi to be available or even capable of manning that spot. I see him as a 20 minutes guy playing either with center or with the big wing. Here is his strength. 

2) Lots of teams, especially in the West, primary or secondary offensive option is a big wing. LeBron, Durant, Kawhi, Towns (when playing with Gobert), JJJ, Grant to name some. You don't want Luka on them and neither Green nor DD can guard them. Maxi is again very limited and we can't expect he is capable of playing 30+ minutes on this guys. Perhaps in the playoffs, but there is still regular season to fight through. 

3) Even if you have good on ball defenders, offense always looks for switches and attack your weakest perimeter defender. Especially in playoffs. So those on ball defenders will most likely end up guarding the corners. A bigger help defender is needed also in this case, imho.

Mavs need a primary on ball defender (can be Green) and a versatile wing defender, capable of guarding 3-4 (perhaps also play some small ball centre). Sort of what Dorian did, but better. I maintain that this guy is more important than the center, but very difficult to find. Green would be ideal, imho. But, assuming Mavs will spend the asset(s) on the center (no good big wing available), I could live in a world where someone like Crowder is brought in to man the position. One option would be to trade the 2027 for center and pick one of rookie big wings if one of those falls to #10. Mavs can't be good with Maxi as the only big wing, imho.