MavsBoard
Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms - Printable Version

+- MavsBoard (https://www.mavsboard.com)
+-- Forum: Boards (https://www.mavsboard.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=1)
+--- Forum: Dallas Mavericks and the NBA (https://www.mavsboard.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=2)
+--- Thread: Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms (/showthread.php?tid=2444)

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - MFFL - 08-01-2023

Mavs receive: James Harden. Sixers receive: DeMar DeRozan, 2025 second-round pick (TOR via DAL), 2028 second-round pick (MIA via DAL). Bulls receive: Christian Wood (sign-and-trade), Tim Hardaway Jr., 2027 first-round pick (DAL).

Dalton Trigg's thoughts
https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/news/dallas-mavs-trade-james-harden-3-team-deal-philadelphia-76ers-chicago-bulls-pipe-dream

Original article
https://fadeawayworld.net/the-three-team-blockbuster-trade-idea-james-harden-to-mavericks-demar-derozan-to-76ers


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - DallasMaverick - 08-01-2023

(08-01-2023, 04:14 PM)MFFL Wrote: Mavs receive: James Harden. Sixers receive: DeMar DeRozan, 2025 second-round pick (TOR via DAL), 2028 second-round pick (MIA via DAL). Bulls receive: Christian Wood (sign-and-trade), Tim Hardaway Jr., 2027 first-round pick (DAL).

Dalton Trigg's thoughts
https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/news/dallas-mavs-trade-james-harden-3-team-deal-philadelphia-76ers-chicago-bulls-pipe-dream

Original article
https://fadeawayworld.net/the-three-team-blockbuster-trade-idea-james-harden-to-mavericks-demar-derozan-to-76ers

An all-defense team.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - KillerLeft - 08-01-2023

(08-01-2023, 04:14 PM)MFFL Wrote: Mavs receive: James Harden. Sixers receive: DeMar DeRozan, 2025 second-round pick (TOR via DAL), 2028 second-round pick (MIA via DAL). Bulls receive: Christian Wood (sign-and-trade), Tim Hardaway Jr., 2027 first-round pick (DAL).

Dalton Trigg's thoughts
https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/news/dallas-mavs-trade-james-harden-3-team-deal-philadelphia-76ers-chicago-bulls-pipe-dream

Original article
https://fadeawayworld.net/the-three-team-blockbuster-trade-idea-james-harden-to-mavericks-demar-derozan-to-76ers

In addition to the obvious fit issues on court, it's it's pretty much documented that Harden asked out of Brooklyn specifically because he was sick of Kyrie.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - Ghost of Podkolzin - 08-01-2023

3 supermax defensively deficient point guards. Ya, that'd work.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - F Gump - 08-01-2023

(08-01-2023, 04:14 PM)MFFL Wrote: Mavs receive: James Harden. Sixers receive: DeMar DeRozan, 2025 second-round pick (TOR via DAL), 2028 second-round pick (MIA via DAL). Bulls receive: Christian Wood (sign-and-trade), Tim Hardaway Jr., 2027 first-round pick (DAL).

Ugh, no.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - IamDougieFresh - 08-01-2023

How do you feel this trade is balanced gentlemen?

THJ and McGee for Isaac and Houstan

The way I see it, the Magic need shooting and I need to get rid of Tim and McShaqtin. 90%+ chance Isaac is cooked, but he will be a very useful non guaranteed contract to trade.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - F Gump - 08-01-2023

(08-01-2023, 11:30 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: How do you feel this trade is balanced gentlemen?

THJ and McGee for Isaac and Houstan

The way I see it, the Magic need shooting and I need to get rid of Tim and McShaqtin. 90%+ chance Isaac is cooked, but he will be a very useful non guaranteed contract to trade.

There's little to no benefit in that type of trade anymore. To take the THJ-JM combo in that trade w DAL, the Magic have to g'tee about $14.2M of his contract, with the full salary being $17.4M if he's not waived. Unless he can play well, it's just bad salary that no one will want.

A team who wants to take a flier on him will wait until he's waived, and then perhaps chase him with min salary money. His stock is low.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - dirkfansince1998 - 08-01-2023

(08-01-2023, 11:30 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: How do you feel this trade is balanced gentlemen?

THJ and McGee for Isaac and Houstan

The way I see it, the Magic need shooting and I need to get rid of Tim and McShaqtin. 90%+ chance Isaac is cooked, but he will be a very useful non guaranteed contract to trade.

Isaac is making headlines. But as usual it´s not about basketball.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - IamDougieFresh - 08-02-2023

Fellas if they can just get McGee and THJ out of here for almost anything I will be happy.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - Jym - 08-02-2023

(08-01-2023, 04:14 PM)MFFL Wrote: Mavs receive: James Harden. Sixers receive: DeMar DeRozan, 2025 second-round pick (TOR via DAL), 2028 second-round pick (MIA via DAL). Bulls receive: Christian Wood (sign-and-trade), Tim Hardaway Jr., 2027 first-round pick (DAL).

Dalton Trigg's thoughts
https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/news/dallas-mavs-trade-james-harden-3-team-deal-philadelphia-76ers-chicago-bulls-pipe-dream

Original article
https://fadeawayworld.net/the-three-team-blockbuster-trade-idea-james-harden-to-mavericks-demar-derozan-to-76ers

Kind of hard to think of someone I'd less want to trade for


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - Ghost of Podkolzin - 08-02-2023

Here's what I would say... he's a $20m/yr player. So his 3yr contract is worth $60m, resulting in $41.9m in dead money.

Our dead money...
McGee: worth $0, -$11.7m/2yr
THJ: worth $11m, -$11.9m/2yr
Holmes: worth $3m, -$18.8/2yr

So to make the numbers match and give back PHX $20m/yr in value, this works.

-Wood (S&T 3yr, $10m/yr)
-THJ
-McGee
for
-Ayton

This would swap -$23.6m (THJ and McGee) of our dead money, resulting in the following overpay for Ayton (given his play stays the same):
2023: +$0.1m
2024: -$12.9m
2025: -$15.5m

This would put us just under Apron 1.

Kyrie, Hardy, Exum
Green, Curry
Luka, OMax
G.Williams, Maxi
Ayton, Powell, Lively, Holmes

The only dead money left is Holmes' -$18.8m/2yr

For PHX...
Booker, Lee
Beasley, Ross, Gordon
Warren, THJ, Okogie
Durant, Bol
Eubanks, Wood

Thoughts?


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - Smitty - 08-02-2023

Where is Wood getting 10M/yr?! He’ll be a minimum or BAE guy for someone.

Don’t want Ayton. I’d rather have THJ to tell the truth.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - Ghost of Podkolzin - 08-02-2023

(08-02-2023, 10:30 AM)Smitty Wrote: Where is Wood getting 10M/yr?! He’ll be a minimum or BAE guy for someone.

Don’t want Ayton. I’d rather have THJ to tell the truth.

Time will tell.  Again, lots of moving parts still haven't landed, including 3 stars in Harden, Dame, and Siakom.  MIA, where Wood is most linked, is front and center in that turmoil.  They've lost 2 starters because they're waiting on Dame.

I am the least among Ayton fans here, but if you can justify him ~$20m/yr, that changes all critique.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - Ghost of Podkolzin - 08-02-2023

A common mistake fans make is to measure players against expectations and not actual worth. IMO, it happened with both KP and Wood.

On the opposite side, fans make the mistake of viewing formerly successful players in that former success, not their current actual worth. IMO this is the case with hope for Holmes and perceived value of Capela.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - mvossman - 08-02-2023

(08-02-2023, 11:21 AM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: A common mistake fans make is to measure players against expectations and not actual worth.  IMO, it happened with both KP and Wood.

On the opposite side, fans make the mistake of viewing formerly successful players in that former success, not their current actual worth.  IMO this is the case with hope for Holmes and perceived value of Capela.

I think the biggest issues with both KP and Wood were of the locker room variety.  The team got a noticeable lift after sending away KP (with some surprising player comments made regarding that) and the lack of Wood interest by Mavs or any other NBA team screams locker room red flags. In fact in both cases I would suggest that it was those players who had too high expectations of what they were and rankled from not getting their touches or minutes.

I think there is some truth to your second point, but you can also go the other way.  Players can have fairly wild swings in their performance from year to year for various reasons.  Its generally not a smooth curve.  So when you project future performance you can make the mistake of being too swayed by recency bias.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - Chicagojk - 08-02-2023

So a player I have been way off so far in the draft a few years ago, who also hasn't been a very good NBA player yet is Marvin Bagley. I never thought he would be a good defender, but I thought he would score and rebound right away and be a guy who put up 20 and 10 year in, year out. I sort of thought he would be a Julius Randle level player. It hasn't worked out and he hasn't been good when I have seen him play. He is still only 24.

One of the things on the Mavs that I am worried about is a big guy who can get easy baskets for himself. So how about a gamble on Bagley. Hardaway for Bagley. Mavs clear up their guard depth and Detroit removes a big from all their young depth.

Bagley is your scoring big off the bench. Paired with Maxi or Grant when one of Luka or Kyrie is resting. I am guessing most are going to say no, but I do wonder if Bagley ever figures it out, or is this who he is.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - Ghost of Podkolzin - 08-02-2023

(08-02-2023, 12:26 PM)mvossman Wrote: I think the biggest issues with both KP and Wood were of the locker room variety.  The team got a noticeable lift after sending away KP (with some surprising player comments made regarding that) and the lack of Wood interest by Mavs or any other NBA team screams locker room red flags.  In fact in both cases I would suggest that it was those players who had too high expectations of what they were and rankled from not getting their touches or minutes.

I think there is some truth to your second point, but you can also go the other way.  Players can have fairly wild swings in their performance from year to year for various reasons.  Its generally not a smooth curve.  So when you project future performance you can make the mistake of being too swayed by recency bias.

If you have known any professional athletes, your first point applies to 95%.  Even the least among professional athletes have been told how special and valuable they are from an early age.  But to your point, you have temper that in regards to your equals and betters.  IMO that applies to KP, not wanting to play with the most gifted ball handler since Lebron.  That was just foolishness, immaturity, and youth.  It doesn't mark him for life as many elites grow out of that (eg Penny/N.Anderson, Kobe/Shaq, Kidd/J.Jackson).  There's simply no smoke that that was the issue with Wood in Dallas.  He thought he should have a bigger role, and anyone with a bball IQ above room temperature would agree, but that was between him and the coaching staff, not teammates.

I agree with your second point, as it pertains to younger players.  You hit late 20s, however, you are who you are.  At that point the curve (season to season) is pretty smooth.  The example I'll use is Capela; what he did in HOU doesn't matter; you have to project out his current decline curve.  This applies to players who had an act II to their careers like G.Hill and D.Rose.  You don't assess them for their earlier MVP value; you assess them for their current role-playing value.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - Ghost of Podkolzin - 08-02-2023

(08-02-2023, 01:31 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: So a player I have been way off so far in the draft a few years ago, who also hasn't been a very good NBA player yet is Marvin Bagley.  I never thought he would be a good defender, but I thought he would score and rebound right away and be a guy who put up 20 and 10 year in, year out.  I sort of thought he would be a Julius Randle level player.  It hasn't worked out and he hasn't been good when I have seen him play.  He is still only 24. 

One of the things on the Mavs that I am worried about is a big guy who can get easy baskets for himself.  So how about a gamble on Bagley.  Hardaway for Bagley.  Mavs clear up their guard depth and Detroit removes a big from all their young depth. 

Bagley is your scoring big off the bench.  Paired with Maxi or Grant when one of Luka or Kyrie is resting.  I am guessing most are going to say no, but I do wonder if Bagley ever figures it out, or is this who he is.

Perfect example.  If you evaluate what he is, rather than what he should be, you still see his value.  I'm totally good with THJ for Bagley for the same reason I have been wanting Wood back.  Give me that scoring off the bench by a big over a SG/SF any day.  Wood is even more ideal given he stretches the defense at an efficient clip.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - mvossman - 08-02-2023

(08-02-2023, 01:44 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: If you have known any professional athletes, your first point applies to 95%.  Even the least among professional athletes have been told how special and valuable they are from an early age.  But to your point, you have temper that in regards to your equals and betters.  IMO that applies to KP, not wanting to play with the most gifted ball handler since Lebron.  That was just foolishness, immaturity, and youth.  It doesn't mark him for life as many elites grow out of that (eg Penny/N.Anderson, Kobe/Shaq, Kidd/J.Jackson).  There's simply no smoke that that was the issue with Wood in Dallas.  He thought he should have a bigger role, and anyone with a bball IQ above room temperature would agree, but that was between him and the coaching staff, not teammates.

I agree with your second point, as it pertains to younger players.  You hit late 20s, however, you are who you are.  At that point the curve (season to season) is pretty smooth.  The example I'll use is Capela; what he did in HOU doesn't matter; you have to project out his current decline curve.  This applies to players who had an act II to their careers like G.Hill and D.Rose.  You don't assess them for their earlier MVP value; you assess them for their current role-playing value.

I think you are ignoring all evidence if you think Wood's only issue is Kidd.  That would not explain why we could not get any value for him at trade deadline, or why nobody has offered him a contract.

There are plenty of players that take big dips in their late 20's and then turn it around completely, especially with a change in scenery.  Its not just the youth curve.  There is other stuff too.


RE: Trade & FA 2023-24: Jaylen Brown agrees on 5yr/304mil deal|Capela on block? - mvossman - 08-02-2023

(08-02-2023, 01:50 PM)Ghost of Podkolzin Wrote: Perfect example.  If you evaluate what he is, rather than what he should be, you still see his value.  I'm totally good with THJ for Bagley for the same reason I have been wanting Wood back.  Give me that scoring off the bench by a big over a SG/SF any day.  Wood is even more ideal given he stretches the defense at an efficient clip.

I feel just the opposite.  Wings are far more important that a bench scoring big that can't play defense, especially for a team that is already way better offensively than defensively.