2020-2021 Dallas Mavericks Will Miss The Playoffs

[KillerLeft]

Luka is supposed to be in the LeBron conversation yet LeBron has never gotten lower than the 4th seed in the playoffs and has never lost in the first round. We are fighting for the 7-8th seed with a top 5 NBA player. Something is up.

1) Lebron didn't even make the playoffs for his first three years. 

2) Luka ain't a top 5 player yet.

[RDB]

Here’s my thinking re Carlisle: 

I think it’s possible that what we are seeing right now is an indication that he has had even more to do with the success in the last couple of years and then we previously understood. Follow my logic here, for a second.

Half of this board thinks nobody on the team except for Luka is any good, and they constantly tell us so after losses. What if, instead of those “meh” players getting hot last season, they were really made to look better than they were because of Dallas’ coaching advantage? 

If that’s the case, then wouldn’t it make sense how the lack of a proper training camp or in-season practice time this year, might hurt the Mavs a bit more than some other teams? I mean, they aren’t even doing shoot arounds most days.

Think about some of the other teams who are struggling… Toronto. Miami. Other teams with strong, detail oriented coaches.

Just a theory, and I definitely think Carlisle deserves some of the blame for not overcoming these circumstances better, so far. But, I do not think this is an indication that he is used up or too old. I think he’s just having trouble doing what he does in this new situation. Hopefully, it’s a temporary situation.

Great post
I would fall closer to the good coaching side but not because Luka is the ONLY good player.  I think we just have too many one dimensional pieces which can be fine individually but collectively are a problem.

THJ is a good player but streaky and when cold, doesn’t have the skill set to be consistently impactful in other areas.  DFS can always be counted on for defense but will rarely have an impactful shooting volume and needs open looks...same with Maxi.  KP is a streaky big who seems most comfortable deep, has never been particularly efficient, and is not a good rebounder for his size. J Rich is a defender with some offensive skills.  Add to that, most of the scoring from the above players is assisted and they do not dish out a lot of assists themselves.

I think you could plug any one of those players on a team like Utah and still be great.  But to me, when you have TOO many specialized or limited pieces, you end up with a situation where during off nights, you don’t have the resources to accommodate.  Case in point, Bog scored 6 points Wednesday night and Mavs got smoked.  THJ scored 2 points last night and Mavs got smoked.  Not his fault but we don’t have the resources to cover for that.

[SleepingHero]

KP is a streaky big who seems most comfortable deep, has never been particularly efficient, and is not a good rebounder for his size

There's something up with KP. I don't know what but something.

Last year post December he averaged 24/10 on 45/36/85  (if we include December then 22/10 on 44/35/80). That's pretty efficient and good rebounding. What's going on now is shocking for me to say the least.

[RDB]

There's something up with KP. I don't know what but something.

Last year post December he averaged 24/10 on 45/36/85  (if we include December then 22/10 on 44/35/80). That's pretty efficient and good rebounding. What's going on now is shocking for me to say the least.

I agree.  Interestingly, his stats this year look similar to his career.  His 3% is down, his 2% is up and eFG% is same as last year.  His career high rebounding per 36 was last year (10.7) and this year (9,6) is his 2nd highest.  I guess what I meant was he is historically not a particularly efficient shooter or rebounder, especially for a big.  But you are right, the eye test says something is off.

[cow]

Luka is supposed to be in the LeBron conversation yet LeBron has never gotten lower than the 4th seed in the playoffs and has never lost in the first round. We are fighting for the 7-8th seed with a top 5 NBA player. Something is up.

LeBron is one the greatest players of all time and if not for Wilt, you'd easily call him the greatest athlete the sport has ever seen.  Luka is wonderful but he wasn't blessed with the same physical toolset.  Further, it's absurd to compare Luka this early in his career.

[SwisherPrice]

This season is over. What have THESE Mavs done to earn anyone's respect to think they are good enough to get it together? This isn't Dirk and Jet, who could be counted on for 50 win seasons every year. 

This is a bad team with indifferent coaching. Last year is looking more like a fluke...they overachieved behind atypical good shooting.

[Mavs2019]

With our draft luck, we´ll finish with the 10th odds and move up for the first time...like ever.

[Scott41theMavs]

There's something up with KP. I don't know what but something.

Last year post December he averaged 24/10 on 45/36/85 (if we include December then 22/10 on 44/35/80). That's pretty efficient and good rebounding. What's going on now is shocking for me to say the least.

I agree. Interestingly, his stats this year look similar to his career. His 3% is down, his 2% is up and eFG% is same as last year. His career high rebounding per 36 was last year (10.7) and this year (9,6) is his 2nd highest. I guess what I meant was he is historically not a particularly efficient shooter or rebounder, especially for a big. But you are right, the eye test says something is off.

Defense is the biggest issue. His 3p% being down is likely a big deal to him psychologically, because that was the offensive calling card that earned him the unicorn nickname anyway. Someone mentioned the other day that they thought it was mental (i.e. fear of injury). Both of his two major injuries were contact injuries. How is not playing like female genitalia going to get him injured?

[ThisIStheYear]

1) Lebron didn't even make the playoffs for his first three years. 

2) Luka ain't a top 5 player yet.

1) The Cavs won 50 games in Lebron’s 3rd year.
2) Luka was first team all nba last season. There are five players on the first team.

[RDB]

Defense is the biggest issue. His 3p% being down is likely a big deal to him psychologically, because that was the offensive calling card that earned him the unicorn nickname anyway. Someone mentioned the other day that they thought it was mental (i.e. fear of injury). Both of his two major injuries were contact injuries. How is not playing like female genitalia going to get him injured?

I get your point...I was just responding to the comment about KP’s shooting efficiency.

[KillerLeft]

2) Luka was first team all nba last season. There are five players on the first team.

You know there were some notable players hurt last year, right?

You also know that older players tend to pace themselves and not put up huge numbers all the time, right?

Based on putting up gaudy stats, yeah - Luka is top 5. There are definitely five players (or more) who are ahead of him as winners in this league. 

He’s 21. It’s like waiting in line at six flags. He is going to be better than Dirk, and probably better than any future Maverick, too. This is a once in a franchise situation. But, he is not there yet, and I honestly believe that if people would just get that through their skulls this terrible season would be a lot easier to swallow.

[ThisIStheYear]

You know there were some notable players hurt last year, right?

You also know that older players tend to pace themselves and not put up huge numbers all the time, right?

Based on putting up gaudy stats, yeah - Luka is top 5. There are definitely five players (or more) who are ahead of him as winners in this league. 

He’s 21. It’s like waiting in line at six flags. He is going to be better than Dirk, and probably better than any future Maverick, too. This is a once in a franchise situation. But, he is not there yet, and I honestly believe that if people would just get that through their skulls this terrible season would be a lot easier to swallow.

I know Lebron made the playoffs his third year.

Luka is already better than Dirk. If he had Marion, Kidd, peak Chandler, and sixth man of the year Terry, the Mavs would have the league’s best record.  Last night is a good example.  29 points on 54.5% shooting and over 40% from the three. He threw in 8 rebounds and 7 assists for good measure.  I know it seems ordinary because of what we’re used to from him, but that’s a spectacular game.  It’s hard to lose when all you have to do with the rest of the roster is build on a foundation like that. There’s only a little more that Luka, any player could do.   He’ll get a little better, but the Mav’s future is not dependent on his continued development.  It’s dependent on everyone else’s.

[dirkfansince1998]

I know Lebron made the playoffs his third year.

Luka is already better than Dirk. If he had Marion, Kidd, peak Chandler, and sixth man of the year Terry, the Mavs would have the league’s best record.  Last night is a good example.  29 points on 54.5% shooting and over 40% from the three. He threw in 8 rebounds and 7 assists for good measure.  I know it seems ordinary because of what we’re used to from him, but that’s a spectacular game.  It’s hard to lose when all you have to do with the rest of the roster is build on a foundation like that. There’s only a little more that Luka, any player could do.   He’ll get a little better, but the Mav’s future is not dependent on his continued development.  It’s dependent on everyone else’s.

Luka has the ball in his hand most of the time so the boxscore numbers actually do a good job when it comes to measuring his impact. Same wasn´t the case with Dirk. Dirk had the mentioned guys on the same team for exactly one season. Post allstar break KP was a better 2nd option than anything Dirk ever had in his career.
Last years supporting cast probably has a case over the 2006 finals team. Dirk made the finals with a playoff rotation of Terry, Howard, Stackhouse, Harris, Dampier, Diop and Griffin. The league has changed and I don´t think similar runs are possible against multiple superstar teams but right now I´d easily take peak Dirk over any version of Luka.

[Kammrath]

Dirk

Dirk had a positive impact on/off for 19 straight seasons to start his career. A stunning run that maybe Lebron will match, but one unmatched by Kobe or Duncan for instance. Dirk helped winning basketball like few players ever have.

[khaled1987]

Luka is already better than Dirk. 

No

[KillerLeft]

Luka is already better than Dirk. If he had Marion, Kidd, peak Chandler, and sixth man of the year Terry, the Mavs would have the league’s best record

With respect, this is just flatly ridiculous, imo. 

In some really important ways, I think Luka is only 25% now of what he will be in 5 years. He's still getting better daily. He is certainly not among the top 5 of players you'd want leading your team in a 7-game series THIS YEAR if your life depended on the outcome. And, while I agree that he's likely to eclipse Dirk during his time here (which feels sacrilegious to say) to claim that he has already done that is BONKERS. 

Luka is amazing, and we're so lucky he's a Maverick, but putting him on such an unrealistic pedestal doesn't help anyone get to any truth about the team, imo. His teammates are not worthless. His coach is not worthless. He does make mistakes from time to time, and he does have areas that need improvement.

[Fuerza1]

Luka is not better than Dirk and I am not as sure that he ever will be. Dirk's impact on the Mavs goes well beyond the numbers. Dirk at age 22 was able to win 53 games, the 5th seed, and make it to the second round of the playoffs. FYI, Luka turns 22 next month. 

Luka finished 4th in MVP voting last season and was the favorite to win MVP this season. Those are the expectations.

[SleepingHero]

Dirk at age 22 was able to win 53 games, the 5th seed, and make it to the second round of the playoffs. FYI, Luka turns 22 next month. 

Dirk at age 22 had Steve Nash and Michael Finley. 

If Luka had that kind of reliable talent next to him I have no doubts that the Mavs would be a 50 win team.

Now I'm not saying Dirk wasn't the main engine or taking away from his greatness, because I'm not. He was the reason they won 50+ games year in year out. But Luka's teams talent levels aren't even close to that of Dirk's yet, and unfortunately that's saying something.

[Mavs2019]

With respect, this is just flatly ridiculous, imo. 

In some really important ways, I think Luka is only 25% now of what he will be in 5 years.

 He´ll make some other franchise very happy.

[KillerLeft]

He´ll make some other franchise very happy.

Well, that's about the time he'd leave, so it's possible. But, I don't think we're to the point where we have to worry about that yet. 

Not everything the Mavs have done recently has been a success, but the only MAJOR action they've taken that has a chance at totally backfiring is giving Porzingis that contract. It could still work, so even that's not written in the "mistakes" column in blood yet. 

But, IF KP busts out here, and IF they don't recognize that and take the evasive maneuvers needed (2 steps back to open up a clear path forward) then yeah, Luka will probably end up seeing this team much like Lebron saw Cleveland in 2010.