12-19-2020, 01:06 PM
(12-19-2020, 03:48 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: I don't mean to write an entire essay, but I want to try and approach my feelings on Powell with as much nuance as you, so forgive my ramble.
1. Powell has always been a subpar defender. I didn't think pointing that out was controversial.
2. Second, Powell does have one elite individual offensive skill. That one skill does just so happen to raise the floor of the entire team offense while he's out there and provide plenty of opportunities for his teammates as well as himself. I acknowledge that. Powell as a roll man is about as good as it got. However, if you want to point to Powell's individual offensive rating as proof to him having more than just a single skill then I vehemently deny that. ORTG is heavily biased towards efficient producers on low volume.
Also if you want to include screen setting as an elite offensive skill I agree. It's important to have that for a good offense and Powell is an above average screen setter. That skill didn't come to mind in my original post. So sure Powell has one elite offensive skill and one above average offensive skill that we both agree on.
3. And my biggest issue right now is that I don't think Powell is ever going to return to what he was. He had a devastating non-contact injury in what is probably the worse injury an NBA player can have. Historically all athletic people in the NBA, besides Dominique Wilkens for 1 season, never returned to what they were after an achilles tear.
4. I think there can be a role on this team for him. I just think the role that he played in preseason isn't the correct one, and there has been little evidence to suggest that the Mavs aren't going to stop with Powell experiment in the starting unit. And I think its supremely disappointing given that the Mavs have Maxi Kleber, who I believe has done more than enough to earn a starting spot. He's a solid screen setter, his defense is elite, and he can actually shoot the ball.
I hope this has more nuance and less hyperbole that you're looking for in a gamethread.
Greatness. Thanks. Someday you'll have to teach me how to do the video's like that. I'm not dismissing them. I mainly wanted to boil this down to your main points. I will make two comments about the video's. One, it is preseason and his first game action in a year. Second, it is Karl Freaking Towns. He does that to everyone. There were some failings on Powell's part. I will give you that. If I knew how to post video's, I could also show some plays where Powell was highly effective (as an aside, someone should do this regarding Green's defense...I hope his O comes along quickly because I really like his on-ball D).
1. I don't concede Powell is a sub-par defender. I hate him alone on an island against great offensive bigs. I hate him as the sole big (I'm not overly enthusiastic about KP as the sole big either). But, here are his defensive grades from the various methods of rating defenders:
D-PIPM 72% B
D-RPM 79% B+
D-Raptor 65% B-
D-BPM 77% B+
What I see there is above average. Here's what's crazy...the team was 3.2 pp48 better Defensively when Powell was on the floor last season (in case you are wondering, the team was the same whether Maxi was on or off). When Powell plays C, his positional opponent kills him (the PER differential is 5.9). When he plays PF (what 82 games considers him when he's next to KP), it is close to a tie (this is why I think Powell will continue to start once KP returns). But either way the TEAM D is good (110.8) when he's on the floor.
2. Absolutely one shouldn't make their entire argument based on O-Rating. But, before we dismiss "efficiency" as a virtue, let me just give some context around what we get out of our fifth option on O from an efficiency standpoint (and he is the 5th option. Maxi gets up 30% more shot attempts per minute than Powell). He's in the 95th Percentile in True Shooting% and the 97th Percentile in Points Per Possession. Powell doesn't waste possessions. BBall Index rates Powell as excellent as a cutter (something he'll do more of when KP returns). He's in the 98th percentile in Screen Assists. He's a very good offensive rebounder and finisher and draws a lot of fouls. Repeating something I said earlier. He was top on the team last year in both On-Court and On-Minus-Off. The things he's good at translates to winning basketball whether we like O-Rating or not as a confirmation of value.
3. I see the glass closer to half full on Powell's health compared to expectations. But neither of us know what percentage of his old self he'll be a month or two down the road. It is absolutely a concern. The history of his injury isn't good. But, Powell is younger than most who have had it and works harder than most too. In my mind is way ahead of schedule. I'm disappointed he doesn't get more grace here. I'm not willing to write him off as a lost cause. I'm also not willing to write off the possibility he can adapt his game well to whatever limitations he ends up with.
4. Not surprisingly, I disagree with the portion of the board that wants to replace Powell with Maxi. We've seen that movie. Maxi drew the start the first four games of the season last year and lost his job to Powell. When Powell played with KP/DFS/THJ and Luka last season the group was +11 PP100. When Maxi played with the EXACT same group they were -11. Maxi's shooting is worse as a starter than as a bench player and worse when he crosses over 30 minutes. Look Maxi is basically IDEAL as a multi-position 3rd Big. But things don't work as well when you replace Powell with him. It shows in nearly every stat. I'd actually come closer to agreeing with (my idealized version of ) WCS starting before I would Maxi. Of course we need to see that version of WCS on a consistent basis.
I let a lot of things I disagree with go (Powell related or otherwise) because I really don't want to spend my time trying to win internet debates on unknowable outcomes. The thing that got to me about the game thread is every mistake is used by some as a hammer to bludgeon anyone who has ever expressed a positive opinion about Powell. Pointing out every mistake (often with a snarky tone) is interpreted (by me) as "look at what he did there you idiots who like Powell". It gets old and is one of the reasons I avoid the game thread (the other being overreacting to EVERYTHING). It sucks the life out of the game experience (for me). I'd love to participate in a more positive environment. But, since that doesn't exist, I'll just watch the games and form my own opinions and write about them in the game summaries (which I hope will return starting next week as I fear mavsluvr is now writing for some national publication).
