Porzingis Postup Debate - Rick Carlisle vs TNT

[dirkfansince1998]

From ESPN:

"I think the NBA made a big mistake when everybody tried to model themselves after the Golden State Warriors," Barkley says. "The Golden State Warriors had the three greatest shooters who ever lived. So, everybody starts shootin' 3s. There are seven teams shooting more 3s in the last two years than the Golden State Warriors. We know the Rockets are an anomaly.

"But the notion that six other teams would shoot more 3s than the three greatest shooters that ever lived, that's stupid, and asinine."

No team is copying the Warriors. If anything they are copying the Rockets. The Warriors rarely ran pick and roll plays. They also lead the league in midrange volume. A lot of horns sets with handoffs from the high post. Offball screens for Klay and Steph. The entire scheme was build around offball movement.
What we are seeing right now is the 4-1 or 5-out high pick and roll. Teams are spamming it and reset the play if it didn´t work. That´s Morey/D´Anthony ball.

Barkley openly admits that he rarely watches regular season games. No one should take anything coming from him serious. All I ever hear is random bigman x/y should post up. Teams are taking to many 3s.

[Dahlsim]

- Some good points and counterarguments in this video, which some people have already discussed in this thread
Not just about KP posting up but value of overall post play in general..

 

Excellent piece! Thanks for sharing. Its worth summarizing I think.  

Its worth noting at the beginning that TNT guys Charles and Shaq actually point out that the driving paint shot they show of KP does fit in the type of shot they 'have no problem with' and think they should see more vs. the long 3's even though he missed the gimme almost point blank shot he earned.   You have to think if he took more of those, which wasn't a 'post up' but was a close to the basket paint shot he would have to get a good touch back and high %. 

The video does make a number of the points that have been described in this thread but it also makes a few significant additional points. 
Their analysis agrees with Carlisle that KP has been a poor post up option and therefore coach's position makes sense as to why that's not the way they use him in their offense.  On the other hand they also point out that KP is missing shots including shots in the post that he was better at in New York.  They said he was 16th in the league in the Post out of 50 players with at least 100 post ups while right now he's showing the same rust on his shots off the post up that his 3 pt % is showing.  They conclude it's silly to go entirely away from it. 

They point out that by his last season in NY before injury he had reached almost 40% 3pt but overall they completely disagree that KP has proven to be 'historically' great out on the perimeter above the break.  Perhaps the potential is there because as they say the stroke looks good and this year you have to allow for rust coming back from the long injury absence. 

Back to post ups though.  We've now seen a couple of recent Mavs clunkers, including dents in that vaunted #1 offensive showing teams adjusting and learning to slow it down or even shut it down, Thunder, Lakers. 

They point out that Luka's effectiveness and value off of post ups for the Mavericks defies Carlisle's position on the value of the post up for the Mavs. Because Luka scores well and is a great passer out of the post its appears that Mavs should be using this more.   
They make a great point about post up play increasing your team's odds of getting offensive rebounds and that the straight post up putbacks could rightly be charted as part of the original post up shots efficiency itself since it comes as a direct result of the post up.  That analysis would change that true shooting % in measuring the efficiency of the post up. 

They make a point about the effectiveness of the post again not measured directly just by converting the post up but by its ability to generate high percentage and efficient shots off passes to cutters and generate high quality 3 point shots which the analytic darlings love the most.  
They cite the great GSW teams as a great case in point as they generate a lot of high quality offense with post ups as the setup. 

A lot of this supports my general sense that while the Mavs get good overall offensive numbers, they still miss out by not having these type of inside scoring options as viable in their system.   This shows as the Mavs struggling more often they should generating tough baskets when the defense slows the pace and is able to force 1/2 court creation. This plays into a higher number of empty possessions and turnovers when trying to hold a lead against teams that raised their defensive focus.  That means losing leads to big runs faster than they normally should.

 
Here's where the video misses:

1.  Carlisle says, it's not beneficial to post Luka, except sometimes when Luka is sometimes matched on a smaller guy. Guy ignores latter part of Rick's statement, and begins talking about how they should post him up, up to 4 times a game - when he's on smaller guys.

2. The guy tries to make the argument of how many cuts come out of the post for other teams and players. That's' not how this offense is designed, and it's not how Rick wants his offense to flow.  Point being that this offense doesn't gain as much assist value from KP in the post, versus what he might produce with another team.  

3. The assumption that the video makes about "what about the rebounds? what about the assists? these have to count!" is silly. All of that is built into the robust statistical models that the PhD statisticians use.

4.  The guy started out great basically showing how KP can't post up well because of his high center of gravity.  I thought we were fundamentally on track there. Then he went off the rails.

5. I think the video misses that Carlisle was using hyperbole around his general beliefs to create a little bit of absurdity in response to the TNT guys...  trolling them, trying to get them going with more. "KP is a historically efficient shooter" - come on man, Rick is not dumb. That is 100% intentional.

wug?

 
Good effort   
To your points: 
#1 I think the point about Luka is that while Coach C. said that the Post Up as a play is dead, his own player Luka Doncic is one of that rare breed of player that is quite effective in post up play. That somewhat contradicts the idea that Mavs don't post up at all or that the post up is dead. 

#2 Agree totally that Carlisle's offense doesn't work that way.  Its not designed around creating many opportunities off of post play and definitely not around using KP out of Post Play. 

The guy acknowledges the KP isn't good in the post, not even as good now as was in NY so he doesn't disagree with Coaches approach there.  He just points out how some good offense still comes off the post up and even comes to the Mavericks especially with Luka. 

#3 Seems like you missed the point here.  He's simply pointing out that the way a particular stat is generated to measure the post up it can be misleading as to the true value of the post up.  Example is Boban posts up generates a close rim shot, misses it but gets his own rebound and puts it back.  His point is that the post up directly led to that offensive rebound and that those plays tend to increase the chances of getting that sort of rebound and put back.  So the true value the put back could take into account that it directly generated the score rather than counting simply as a missed post up. 

#4 Its not really that the guy started out good and went off the rails. He started out by looking at Coach Carlisle's main argument and pointing out where he agreed with it.  He then went on to point out where he disagreed or perhaps felt that something relevant was left out of the discussion about Post Ups.   
The thrust of it is challenging the idea that Post up is 'dead'. It does so effectively by point out how good offense is generated starting with post up even though it ends in other ways like a cut and dunk or a wide open 3 pointer. 

#5 I don't think Coach was 'trolling', its more like he used an exaggeration but meant what he was getting at namely that he thinks KP is a really talented, elite level 3 point shooter even if his numbers right now don't show it.

wig is that the teams with high powered offense still need good ways to score in the 1/2 court and when good defenses tighten up and don't let your free flowing offense get those good looks you usually get.  wug?  

[hakeemfan]

From ESPN:

"I think the NBA made a big mistake when everybody tried to model themselves after the Golden State Warriors," Barkley says. "The Golden State Warriors had the three greatest shooters who ever lived. So, everybody starts shootin' 3s. There are seven teams shooting more 3s in the last two years than the Golden State Warriors. We know the Rockets are an anomaly.

"But the notion that six other teams would shoot more 3s than the three greatest shooters that ever lived, that's stupid, and asinine."

No team is copying the Warriors. If anything they are copying the Rockets. The Warriors rarely ran pick and roll plays. They also lead the league in midrange volume. A lot of horns sets with handoffs from the high post. Offball screens for Klay and Steph. The entire scheme was build around offball movement.
What we are seeing right now is the 4-1 or 5-out high pick and roll. Teams are spamming it and reset the play if it didn´t work. That´s Morey/D´Anthony ball.

Barkley openly admits that he rarely watches regular season games. No one should take anything coming from him serious. All I ever hear is random bigman x/y should post up. Teams are taking to many 3s.

Every time someone asks why a why a team is taking so many 3 point shots does not mean someone is asking a big man to be posted down low.  

There have been others even before D’Antoni who have wanted to build an outside based offense. However no one took those guys, including D’Antoni, seriously until GS won.  GS is what gave these teams the confidence that you can win a title that way.  However as Barkley says, that team was built on the backs of 3 great shooters(2 for their first one).  You can disparage Barkley all you want but it is a valid question to ask as to why so many teams are shooting more 3s than a team that had the greatest collection of shooters we might ever see.

[BolsDamols]

Not sure if this is posted already..

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2840...onard-sits

[Dahlsim]

Not sure if this is posted already..

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2840...onard-sits

You boyz are finding some smoking hot analysis on this topic.  Thanks.   
Reading the piece you reference I think an important point to distinguish is scoring from the post vs. scoring through the post.  Not the same thing. 

As Lowe points out scoring from the post is down, way down, maybe as Carlisle said close to dead if you simply look at going to the post and leading directly to bucket as a point per possession. 

Scoring through the post is something more and he's talking here about Porzingis as a passer being poor and poor passing out of the post.  Where he says the Post up come in handy  is more for the tough defense situations which you see some in regular season and will see even more in playoffs. 

But it's a handy tool. Not even the Mavs -- on pace to produce the best offense ever -- will get everything they want against postseason defenses. On a bunch of possessions, they will have to make something from nothing. Porzingis improving his passing out of the post -- at least against switches -- would help.

This relates to something he said earlier about the way the rules have changed for post defense in the NBA comparing now to the 80's and 90's.  
He doesn't elaborate but I think the point is NBA is allowing better defense inside the post against big men, more physical, arm bars etc. while its allowing less defense than ever against guards and perimeter players.  This particularly blew open with the elimination of hand checking rules and continues with rules protecting shooters.   

So defense in the post is much better now however what defenses have to do to defend well against a really good post player which are fewer than ever, can open up great secondary scoring including wide open 3 point shots.   So when defenders are bodying up against Luka and all the Mavs shooters they can't also defend as well against someone like Anthony Davis or lets say Boban in the post. It's going to be one on one in the paint against an efficient post player.  

The 2 pointers and the fouls and free throws can then eat your defense alive! 

So coming back to KP, Lowe in your article pinpoints the problem for the Mavs using Porzingis there: 

Only 4% of Porzingis' post-ups have resulted in him dishing an assist -- one of the league's lowest marks.

[fifteenth]

It may be that the Mavs intend to improve KP's passing. He just recently started passing out of drives to the basket. Maybe that's just the first step in the project.

[hakeemfan]

I would like the Mavs to run an offense similar to what Denver does but with Luka playing Jokic’s role. Luka can pretty much do everything Jokic does. Some things Jokic might do slightly better due to his height/size but other things Luka can do better.

More I think about this, the more I don’t want to build an offense around KP or wait for him to get better at passing. Few sets here and there..that’s fine. But the quickest fix to get a modern offense and yet not just play for an outside shot is to play Luka at the high post, have action around him, and impress on him to think pass first. He certainly has all the tools.

[dirkfansince1998]

Whatever it is. The Mavs need reliable 2-point plays to close out games. There is no reason to blow big leads again and again just because the 3 isn´t falling.

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

I hope Porzingis turns into that second banana next season.  I didn't think he was a superstar (was a superstar prospect), but even I've been underwhelmed by him.  Still patient though because it's the first year back.

Mavs aren't going anywhere until Luka has more help.

[Dahlsim]

Whatever it is. The Mavs need reliable 2-point plays to close out games. There is no reason to blow big leads again and again just because the 3 isn´t falling.

This issue played out again last game against the Charlotte Hornets.  The Mavs had a lead big enough with just a few minutes left in the game that Charlotte had to both go on a scoring tear AND get the Mavs to come up empty on almost every possession.  

Mavs didn't have win with defense at that point as just a few high % shots at the rim would have caused the Hornets to come up short. 
As it is they just barely had enough time to tie the game and send it to over time.  Even one more basket would have done them in. 
That's where a post big man pounding it at the rim and maybe even drawing a foul could close a game.  No such attempt is made of course, its just not in the offensive playbook under any circumstances, evidently. 

[Dahlsim]

I just watched a perfect example of a team in the crunch of the game that had post up offense as an option in its offense vs a team that for the most part does not. 

The Mavericks, up 1 point had to defend a real post up player in Jokic and oddly chose to try and do it with a guy that is a very good defender but absolutely TOO small to go against a skilled BIG with post up skills.  

That winning basket by Denver over Dallas was SUPER high % while on the other end the Mavericks offense is trying to pass the ball around the perimeter and the defense is totally able to disrupt it. 

Denver spread the floor and because the post up was an option Dallas had to give up a good shot either outside or inside. Unfortunately they chose to give up the almost sure bucket in the post.

[aguiar95]

I just watched a perfect example of a team in the crunch of the game that had post up offense as an option in its offense vs a team that for the most part does not. 

The Mavericks, up 1 point had to defend a real post up player in Jokic and oddly chose to try and do it with a guy that is a very good defender but absolutely TOO small to go against a skilled BIG with post up skills.  

That winning basket by Denver over Dallas was SUPER high % while on the other end the Mavericks offense is trying to pass the ball around the perimeter and the defense is totally able to disrupt it. 

Denver spread the floor and because the post up was an option Dallas had to give up a good shot either outside or inside. Unfortunately they chose to give up the almost sure bucket in the post.

The thing is, if you put KP against DFS (hell, even small guards) on the same Jokic post, he can't get near the basket to have that high % shot. If he had the body strenght to push other guys, he would be lethal.

[SwisherPrice]

Luka or KP better ignore RC and develop a post-up/mid-range game or else there will be no championships in their future. The post-up/mid-range is outdated? Go tell that to the last two Finals MVPs.

The game may have changed in terms of style and pace but in the playoffs it still comes down to defense and efficient offense. When the game slows down in the playoffs, you need reliable offense and players who can get you high-percentage buckets. If you want to live and die with the three then you better have all-time great shooters like Steph and Klay to make it work. Otherwise, you're just the Rockets.

Luka is 20, he still has all the potential and his game can go in any direction but it's up to him and the coaching staff to decide what type of player he wants to be.

[Dahlsim]

I just watched a perfect example of a team in the crunch of the game that had post up offense as an option in its offense vs a team that for the most part does not. 

The Mavericks, up 1 point had to defend a real post up player in Jokic and oddly chose to try and do it with a guy that is a very good defender but absolutely TOO small to go against a skilled BIG with post up skills.  

That winning basket by Denver over Dallas was SUPER high % while on the other end the Mavericks offense is trying to pass the ball around the perimeter and the defense is totally able to disrupt it. 

Denver spread the floor and because the post up was an option Dallas had to give up a good shot either outside or inside. Unfortunately they chose to give up the almost sure bucket in the post.

The thing is, if you put KP against DFS (hell, even small guards) on the same Jokic post, he can't get near the basket to have that high % shot. If he had the body strenght to push other guys, he would be lethal.

This is true.  If its going to be a bully ball post up play then Boban is the best BIG option on the Mavs roster.  For that matter Boban is an elite option period by any standard in that situation on offense.  

As far as KP, his body type is similar to another player which happens to be maybe the GOAT offensive weapon except maybe for the Wilt and that was Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.   KP hasn't developed a go-to post move that works for his body type.  He could, just like Kareem who had the ultimate weapon.  KP can shoot freely OVER almost anyone. 

The Unicorn just needs a go-to move and the proper footwork to get it off consistently.  A defender will be helpless to defend with goal tending it.  
They would just do their best and hope and pray the go-to Post move misses, exactly like they had to do against Kareem. 

That's the good news. KP could develop such a move, just like Dirk used to work to add to his game every year with his legendary coach Holger Geschwinder.  
The bad news is Porzingis isn't working with Holger, is he?  He's working with a coach that is telling him the Post Up is dead, so why develop a go-to move there?  

---

Luka or KP better ignore RC and develop a post-up/mid-range game or else there will be no championships in their future. The post-up/mid-range is outdated? Go tell that to the last two Finals MVPs.

The game may have changed in terms of style and pace but in the playoffs it still comes down to defense and efficient offense. When the game slows down in the playoffs, you need reliable offense and players who can get you high-percentage buckets. If you want to live and die with the three then you better have all-time great shooters like Steph and Klay to make it work. Otherwise, you're just the Rockets.

Luka is 20, he still has all the potential and his game can go in any direction but it's up to him and the coaching staff to decide what type of player he wants to be.

Excellent point.  The thing is, even before the playoffs, the games gets into playoff intensity and focus very similar to the playoffs during some regular season games.  This is what we're seeing at the end of games and against the better teams.  It's a taste of playoff basketball used to close the games and get W's.  

The post up and high percentage inside play of the big men no longer dominate the game, but the best teams have those options even this higher paced backcourt dominant NBA.  The Raptors went out and got not a only Kawhi Leonard, a player who includes post up as part of his arsenal but they also got Marc Gasol, a older slow dinosaur center.   Gasol was also critical to their championship success.

[hakeemfan]

I just watched a perfect example of a team in the crunch of the game that had post up offense as an option in its offense vs a team that for the most part does not. 

The Mavericks, up 1 point had to defend a real post up player in Jokic and oddly chose to try and do it with a guy that is a very good defender but absolutely TOO small to go against a skilled BIG with post up skills.  

That winning basket by Denver over Dallas was SUPER high % while on the other end the Mavericks offense is trying to pass the ball around the perimeter and the defense is totally able to disrupt it. 

Denver spread the floor and because the post up was an option Dallas had to give up a good shot either outside or inside. Unfortunately they chose to give up the almost sure bucket in the post.

Because the Mavs coaching staff values the 3 more than the 2.  Must have shocked RC that a big guy posted up a smaller guy and took advantage.  Must have thought...Players still score that way?   But my idol  Morey said that was so 2011.

[DirkFan9]

I looked up Anthony Davis' shot chart this year. Imagine Davis not posting up or taking inside shots and just jacking up 3s, they'll probably lose a lot of games for sure. I know that Davis and KP are different when it comes to post ups, but RC should take advantage of KP's height on offense. RC can utilize KP in other ways (Alley oop, cut to the basket, drive, etc...). So I believe that the TNT guys are right when they said RC was utilizing KP incorrectly. Another example is Giannis.

The post up play is dead, year right!. Tell that to AD and to Jokic who beat the shit out of Powell and Maxi.

RC's inability to adjust will be his downfall. His stubbornness to live and die with the 3pt shot, his love for the small ball, his sub patterns, etc...

Let's hope that KP's and his brother Janis's ego do not blow up or they'll ask for another trade.

[bartlettbear]

Luka or KP better ignore RC and develop a post-up/mid-range game or else there will be no championships in their future. The post-up/mid-range is outdated? Go tell that to the last two Finals MVPs.

The game may have changed in terms of style and pace but in the playoffs it still comes down to defense and efficient offense. When the game slows down in the playoffs, you need reliable offense and players who can get you high-percentage buckets. If you want to live and die with the three then you better have all-time great shooters like Steph and Klay to make it work. Otherwise, you're just the Rockets.

Luka is 20, he still has all the potential and his game can go in any direction but it's up to him and the coaching staff to decide what type of player he wants to be.

Hopefully they get fed up with his lack of ability to utilize all their strengths and they go to Cuban and we can move on form what is going on 9 years of bad style basketball.

[ItsGoTime]

For sure, egg on RC's face right now. It will continue to be there if he doesn't adjust and stop listening solely to the analytics team. Truth to the matter, the higher % shot happens the closer to the basket a player is. In the end of the game, when you just need to stop the empty offensive possessions, that's when the game and style needs to change from jacking up 3's, to getting shots closer to the basket, in whatever form the defense allows them to come.

Once our players and coaching staff get that, we can start working on the games of individual players to make that a strength.

[Dahlsim]

I looked up Anthony Davis' shot chart this year. Imagine Davis not posting up or taking inside shots and just jacking up 3s, they'll probably lose a lot of games for sure. I know that Davis and KP are different when it comes to post ups, but RC should take advantage of KP's height on offense. RC can utilize KP in other ways (Alley oop, cut to the basket, drive, etc...). So I believe that the TNT guys are right when they said RC was utilizing KP incorrectly. Another example is Giannis.

The post up play is dead, year right!. Tell that to AD and to Jokic who beat the shit out of Powell and Maxi.

RC's inability to adjust will be his downfall. His stubbornness to live and die with the 3pt shot, his love for the small ball, his sub patterns, etc...

Let's hope that KP's and his brother Janis's ego do not blow up or they'll ask for another trade.

BTW, anybody notice how Lebron mixed in a nice assortment of Post Up plays against the Mavericks, quite successfully?  Did he not get the memo?  That play is dead King James! Get with the modern program! 

Boban was able to put up 14 points against the Lakers in 10 minutes, along with 10 boards.  Good thing for the Lakers centers including Javale-not-good-enough-to-be-a-mav they didn't have to contend with any big men challenging them at the rim.  They were already in foul trouble even against the small ball attack.  Wouldn't be fair to make them guard big Bobi too long.

[ItsGoTime]

BTW, anybody notice how Lebron mixed in a nice assortment of Post Up plays against the Mavericks, quite successfully?  Did he not get the memo?  That play is dead King James! Get with the modern program! 

Boban was able to put up 14 points against the Lakers in 10 minutes, along with 10 boards.  Good thing for the Lakers centers including Javale-not-good-enough-to-be-a-mav they didn't have to contend with any big men challenging them at the rim.  They were already in foul trouble even against the small ball attack.  Wouldn't be fair to make them guard big Bobi too long.

But, but, but, the analytics say...