Porzingis Postup Debate - Rick Carlisle vs TNT

[Dahlsim]

On the national television broadcast from TNT they commented in some detail on the way the Mavs use Kristaps Porzingis offensively, particularly the relatively lack of inside play or 'Post up play'.  The remarks were replied to directly by Rick Carlisle Carlisle responds about the post up  after a reporter referenced the criticism that aired on the National Broadcast.   

While acknowledging respect for Coach Carlisle, a coach with an NBA championship on his resume and respected as a top coach in the NBA around the league, the remarks got pretty, pretty sharp at points from Barkley, Shaq and even Kenny respectfully criticized the general way Porzingis offense is being used saying the ratio of inside shots, close to the basket should be more like 7 to 3 inside vs 3 pointers rather than the reverse it seems to often be now. 

https://youtu.be/L1UzpWZgu_Q?t=767 - Inside The NBA | Charles & Shaq "strong reacts": Mavericks 102-98 Spurs, Jazz  

Its all part of the bigger trends in NBA offense, guard dominated vs center dominated, 3-point revolution etc.  
My general thought is Rick is right overall about the trends of the league and the facts bear that out especially when we talk about post up play and its massive decline across the league. 

On the other hand I do agree somewhat that there is a problem evident sometimes in the way some coaches, Rick Carlisle included, skew perimeter offense even at times where inside play from big men would make much more sense.   
The massive case in point came just the other day when the Mavericks rotations and offense blew a massive late game 30 point lead to go into the history books as one of the worst blown leads of all time in the league. 

It ended up being the biggest comeback in franchise history for the Raptors, who trailed by 30 points late in the third quarter. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, it was the first 30-point comeback by an NBA team in a regular-season game in a decade

In fact the Mavericks as a franchise have some history for blowing these massive leads.  It may well have to do with fact that several Mavs coaches and Mavs teams have tended to be perimeter oriented and lacked high percentage reliable inside big men scoring which can help stabilize offensive spurts and preserve leads against counter runs. 

That said there's no denying that Carlisle is right about post up play in general The Post-up Is Deader Than Dead in the NBA

the post-up is much deader now than five years ago. Since the 2014-15 season, the leaguewide post-up rate has been cut nearly in half, down to just 4.7 percent of possessions thus far in 2019-20.

Where the discussion and disagreement might be misleading regarding the Mavs and Porzingis is that it wasn't necessarily just about Post up play but about getting baskets that are close to the basket.   As Shaq said, shots close to the basket are simply higher percentage.  
Rick Carlisle has other ways of getting those shots for KP however including many of his great rim runs, slashes, rolls leading to dunks and great finishes. 

Another good point Barkley made is that its not as though Porzingis and many other big men are shooting the great 40% 3 range and in fact sometimes the % is quite low.   So its worth questioning if perhaps a few of those shots would have been better taken inside, and maybe drawing a foul as well. 
Then on the other hand again, when suddenly KP drains 3 3's in a row it can help blow a game open quickly. 

In terms of the 1/2 court offense however, this debate will continue no doubt and be fun to watch especially since the Mavericks have a some of the biggest BIG men in the league and a unicorn star at 7'3" with a size (length anyway) advantage to exploit almost every night. 

[dirkfansince1998]

The post game certainly isn´t dead and the same is true for the midrange jumpshot. I like to use the football comparisations for this. Analytics are telling us that the average passing play generates more yards than the average run. Just like the 3-point shot generates more points than a 2-point attempt.
But there are certain situations where the run game (football) or face ups / post ups (basketball) are still important.
Best example in both cases are late game situations. Up by 3 a team does not need a 50yd pass followed by 3 emtpy possessions or a turnover. Run the ball for 3 more 1st downs and it is over.
Same situations in basketball. As long as the 3 is falling everything is fine but I think the Mavs recent late game struggles are a good example why a different approach in certain situations might be benefitial. Example...Mavs are up big vs Toronto. They try to move the ball and shoot 3s. Aren´t able to slow the game down and miss or turn the ball over. A good iso or post up player would be huge in those situations. Up by 20 it doesn´t really matter if a team scores a 2 or 3 as long as they aren´t having empty possessions.

To sum it up. I agree with RCs general approach and like your explanation. Might add that both Barkley and Shaq completly ignore the impact of spacing.
I also think that KP had some nice drives last game. Drawing a crucial 4th foul on Aldridge. 2 kickout passes leading to open 3s. One ally-oop pass to Maxi.
He is not a post up player but compared to earlier in the season he clearly has increased the amount dribble-drives and rolls to the basket.

[Hypermav]

https://theathletic.com/1489818/2019/12/27/rick-carlisle-rips-into-tnt-broadcasts-criticism-of-kristaps-porzingis/?source=dailyemail&redirected=1

[ThisIStheYear]

Coach is right. The game has changed. This is the way. You can play an old school style with a talented roster and be mediocre (like the Cowboys with their 1990s schemes and philosophies). Or, you can adapt to the times, even innovate a little, and win, like the Mavs.

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/AndrewDBailey/status...9126182912

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https://twitter.com/bobbykaralla/status/...7805563905

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https://twitter.com/bobbykaralla/status/...4336660480

[vfromlmf]

Son: "Hey Dad, Waze says you should take Main Street."

Dad: "That way has too many lights."

Son: "But the average drive time on Main Street is 30 minutes. The freeway is 45"

Dad: "I don't care. Main Street always has traffic this time of day."

Son: "Actually, traffic is light today. Looks like it will only take 25 minutes on Main Street. Plus there's a wreck on the freeway causing a 10 minute delay."

Dad: "Look, I've been driving there for 30 years. You go 75 mph on the freeway. I'm not sitting a red lights on Main Street. Just doesn't make sense. I'm taking the freeway"

[LukTheShadow]

Who raised performance above expectations in the 2019/2020 NBA season till now??




or

https://giphy.com/gifs/reaction-EewE6r8x...fullscreen

[fifteenth]

Somehow this post up discussion is getting mixed into the discussion about the Mavs struggling with late game execution.

The deal is, someone can claim that post ups are useful in end of game scenarios, and that's fine, but in this case it's a non-sequitor.

The Mavs end game struggles aren't about needing low post sets, they're about how to handle pressure, how to keep composure, how to keep attacking, how to execute your stuff when the other team raises the intensity.

[pedroffabreu]

As much as I agree with Carlisle, Mavs have had issues dealing with teams that defend zone and push us physically with their agression.

Asking for KP to be the kind of player that breaks through those teams is silly, but we need someone that can create space below the rim. We have too many players that space out the floor, but not that many that can secure a bucket or a good possession in the paint, aside from Luka obviously.

[Jym]

I think we can all agree that twisting, fadeaway  he tries is a horrible shot. 
He's just not a good enough shooter to pull that off with any consistency. 
Much better situation when he just raises up and shoots before the defender even knows what happened.

[dirkfansince1998]

Somehow this post up discussion is getting mixed into the discussion about the Mavs struggling with late game execution.

The deal is, someone can claim that post ups are useful in end of game scenarios, and that's fine, but in this case it's a non-sequitor.

The Mavs end game struggles aren't about needing low post sets, they're about how to handle pressure, how to keep composure, how to keep attacking, how to execute your stuff when the other team raises the intensity.

And post ups or isos are viable options in those cases. Of course there is a lot more to it but there are certain advantages that make both skills sets really valuable in late game situations. Even if teams only use them as a tendency breaker or bail out.
I think the reliance on 3-point shooting is part of the problem in late game situations. If the team is hot it doesn´t matter but after multiple scoreless possessions (for example against the Bucks or Raptors) I don´t think the 5th consecutive missed 3 or turnover is the solution. The analytics aren´t able to measure the momentum of the game.

[vg2011]

A couple of thoughts-

First, is it just me or isn't it obvious that KP needs a big man coach/mentor. Not an old school Barkley or Shaq type but a retired guy with a similar skill set to his. You know, decent handles and agility for his size who could knock down the three and who relied on a fadeaway in the block to compensate for his lack of girth.

Would be even better if the mentor had Mavs connections and went through a similar phase where he had to develop his mid range post up game to compliment his 3 point shooting and driving to the basket skills. And had a set of drills he used to avoid major injuries for, oh say, 21 years in the league.

Second, Rick is right about the stats. Sort of.

Given enough shots over the course of a game 3 pointers provide more points per possession. However, at the ends of games there are not enough shot opportunities (statistical samples) to make use of the advantages of that approach. Threes tend to come in streaks. If the team is cold and the defense toughens over the last 6 or so possesions you're less likely to maintain a 33% chance of scoring threes (two 3's in six possesions or 6 points) than a 50% chance of scoring two's three 2's in six possessions or, again, 6 points).

Plus, you're less likely to get to the free throw line shooting threes.

To win in the playoffs against a good team with the no mid range or post up approach you need elite shooters that are less likely to go cold (GSW), or to be hot for an extended period of games. We have good but not elite shooters and it would be better not to rely on getting lucky and being hot.

So, in my opinion, there is some truth in both what the TNT guys and Rick said. The challenge is how to blend the two philosophies and have KP ready to make the higher percentage, in close shots at the ends of games without disrupting the flow during the other 40 or so minutes.

Kind of like what the obvious candidate to be KP's mentor used to do.

[fifteenth]

I had to switch off mobile dark to read the entire OP. A couple of thoughts:

There are several quotes in the OP, some I think from the OP and some from TNT that imply that post play is the answer to scoring buckets in end game scenarios. One quote suggests that the Mavs have a history of blowing leads because they've been perimeter oriented. 

I don't buy either. Tell me which NBA teams are closing games by throwing the ball into the low post? Drive and score or kick has replaced low post sets, and for good reason. Also, the Mavs aren't a perimeter team. For a large percentage of their offense they use spacing and motion to get players moving downhill towards the basket. Many of their 3s come from this.

Shaq says shots closer to the basket are higher percentage. And Barkley says it's not like these big guys are shooting 40%. 

But we know better than to fall for this logic. The value of a shot isn't found in shooting percentage alone. It takes shooting over 50% on 2s to create more value than 33% on 3s, not to mention 3 pt shooting creates valuable space for the most valuable shot, the one taken at the rim.

I think we're using bad logic about shot value combined with a misdiagnosis of the Mavs end game issues and mixing that with a discussion of how KP should be used. 

Playing a downhill game that results in shots at the rim and open 3s creates more valuable shots than a post up game.

Teams don't close games by turning to post ups, they continue to play downhill.

The Mavs end game woes have been about failure to execute under pressure, not about needing post ups.

KP has the perfect skill set, I think, to play the game the Mavs want to play, and we've seen glimpses of beautiful basketball result from it.

[dirkfansince1998]

I had to switch off mobile dark to read the entire OP. A couple of thoughts:

There are several quotes in the OP, some I think from the OP and some from TNT that imply that post play is the answer to scoring buckets in end game scenarios. One quote suggests that the Mavs have a history of blowing leads because they've been perimeter oriented. 

I don't buy either. Tell me which NBA teams are closing games by throwing the ball into the low post? Drive and score or kick has replaced low post sets, and for good reason. Also, the Mavs aren't a perimeter team. For a large percentage of their offense they use spacing and motion to get players moving downhill towards the basket. Many of their 3s come from this.

Shaq says shots closer to the basket are higher percentage. And Barkley says it's not like these big guys are shooting 40%. 

But we know better than to fall for this logic. The value of a shot isn't found in shooting percentage alone. It takes shooting over 50% on 2s to create more value than 33% on 3s, not to mention 3 pt shooting creates valuable space for the most valuable shot, the one taken at the rim.

I think we're using bad logic about shot value combined with a misdiagnosis of the Mavs end game issues and mixing that with a discussion of how KP should be used. 

Playing a downhill game that results in shots at the rim and open 3s is creates more valuable shots than a post up game.

Teams don't close games by turning to post ups, they continue to play downhill.

The Mavs end game woes have been about failure to execute under pressure, not about needing post ups.

KP has the perfect skill set, I think, to play in the game the Mavs are playing, and we've seen glimpses of beautiful basketball result from it.

GS turned to KDs iso/post up game in crucial moments. Raptors turned to Kawhis oldman Jordan game last season. What you are mentioning is working in 9/10 cases and I want the Mavs to run a pick and roll motion offense.
For me the entire postup debate isn´t really about KP. It´s more about the Mavs needing a different scheme on offense to get buckets when the shooters are cold and the pick and roll motion offense isn´t working. Isos, post ups, whatever works. They need a bail out option.
I don´t want them to end up like the D´Anthony Rockets. Missing 19 consecutive 3s in game 7 of the conference finals.

[StepBackJay]

Fifteenth said it better than I could I will add one more thing. KP is not good at post ups. So we want him to do a lot more post ups even tho he's terrible at it and has this far regressed from his Knicks days? And he never was Dirk-like efficiency in there. Rick is right and the TNT guys are wrong.

My one concern with KP is he keeps adding the asterisk that he's on board with this system because we are winning. My hope is that he eventually figures out the same thing coaches and analytics people are figuring out which is that post-ups aren't the way to win basketball games. It doesn't matter that he likes them any more than it mattered that Dwight Howard used to like post ups. They are dying because there's more efficient ways to score and the Mavs have the best offense in NBA history right now.

[fifteenth]

GS turned to KDs iso/post up game in crucial moments. Raptors turned to Kawhis oldman Jordan game last season. What you are mentioning is working in 9/10 cases and I want the Mavs to run a pick and roll motion offense.
For me the entire postup debate isn´t really about KP. It´s more about the Mavs needing a different scheme on offense to get buckets when the shooters are cold and the pick and roll motion offense isn´t working. Isos, post ups, whatever works. They need a bail out option.
I don´t want them to end up like the D´Anthony Rockets. Missing 19 consecutive 3s in game 7 of the conference finals.

At the moment a Luka drive is the Mavs bail out play.

[dirkfansince1998]

GS turned to KDs iso/post up game in crucial moments. Raptors turned to Kawhis oldman Jordan game last season. What you are mentioning is working in 9/10 cases and I want the Mavs to run a pick and roll motion offense.
For me the entire postup debate isn´t really about KP. It´s more about the Mavs needing a different scheme on offense to get buckets when the shooters are cold and the pick and roll motion offense isn´t working. Isos, post ups, whatever works. They need a bail out option.
I don´t want them to end up like the D´Anthony Rockets. Missing 19 consecutive 3s in game 7 of the conference finals.

At the moment a Luka drive is the Mavs bail out play.

And a Harden drive was the bail out for the Rockets. Did not work. Not as reliable as a midrange shot or postup if I am just interested in 2-points for a single possession.
And that´s ignoring that Luka is more likely to shoot a step back 3 in those situations anyway.

[vfromlmf]

Given enough shots over the course of a game 3 pointers provide more points per possession. However, at the ends of games there are not enough shot opportunities (statistical samples) to make use of the advantages of that approach. Threes tend to come in streaks.

If you flip a coin and get tails 10 times in a row, what are the chances the next flip will be heads?

[Dahlsim]

The post game certainly isn´t dead and the same is true for the midrange jumpshot. I like to use the football comparisations for this. Analytics are telling us that the average passing play generates more yards than the average run. Just like the 3-point shot generates more points than a 2-point attempt.
But there are certain situations where the run game (football) or face ups / post ups (basketball) are still important.
Best example in both cases are late game situations. Up by 3 a team does not need a 50yd pass followed by 3 emtpy possessions or a turnover. Run the ball for 3 more 1st downs and it is over.
Same situations in basketball. As long as the 3 is falling everything is fine but I think the Mavs recent late game struggles are a good example why a different approach in certain situations might be benefitial. Example...Mavs are up big vs Toronto. They try to move the ball and shoot 3s. Aren´t able to slow the game down and miss or turn the ball over. A good iso or post up player would be huge in those situations.

Up by 20 it doesn´t really matter if a team scores a 2 or 3 as long as they aren´t having empty possessions.

To sum it up. I agree with RCs general approach and like your explanation. Might add that both Barkley and Shaq completly ignore the impact of spacing.
I also think that KP had some nice drives last game. Drawing a crucial 4th foul on Aldridge. 2 kickout passes leading to open 3s. One ally-oop pass to Maxi.
He is not a post up player but compared to earlier in the season he clearly has increased the amount dribble-drives and rolls to the basket.

I love your point about empty possessions and that's where I think some of the modern coaching analysts miss the mark a bit including Coach Carlisle.  The Mavs as well as they are playing are showing a disturbing ability to lose big leads very, very quickly.  It's pretty frustrating to watch as a fan.  

They have the fire power on the bench to get high percentage inside scoring against anybody when they have large double digit leads and that type of scoring can not only drastically slow down runs but it can add up in other ways like getting the other team into penalty, 3 point plays the old fashioned way 2 + 1, getting key players into foul trouble etc.  Its one of the reasons I like both Boban and JJB as pinch hitters.  They can get high efficiency scoring for you in limited minutes.  Run stoppers and run extenders. 
All that can pay off as the game moves along in other ways that may not be as obvious as big 3 pointers are. 

Overall though, Carlisle has the point on post up play not being what it was in the days of Shaq and Barkley when great post up to inside out play ruled the day.  

I don't think its just post up either though.  Close shots, high percentage shots don't just come from post up plays.  KP rolling, cutting, ooping and rocking the rim is very exciting to see, is seen more and more and in that sense I think Carlisle and the TNT guys may not be that far apart and where they want to see the Unicorn go in terms of shot mix. 

I do like that Carlisle has given KP such a green light from 3 in general though.  I agree with him that KP has some historical talent there.  He is not shooting it as well yet as he could but signs are that he can absolutely heat up.  He has touch and extended range and that can be a game breaker against even the NBA's most elite teams.  The UNI be the UNI! 

[fifteenth]

And a Harden drive was the bail out for the Rockets. Did not work. Not as reliable as a midrange shot or postup if I am just interested in 2-points for a single possession.
And that´s ignoring that Luka is more likely to shoot a step back 3 in those situations anyway.

I'm not against Dirk or KD style post ups if we have spmeone who can do it. But KD didn't always post up. He faced up and drove. Many of Dirk's biggest moments were drives. Luka can post up, and his drives aren't exactly like Hardens. Harden relies so much on getting fouled or shooting the 3. Luka seems to have endless iterations of layups, floaters and even turn around jumpers. Jordan and other great players started end game scenarios facing the basket and creating off the dribble. Many famous end game scenarios have ended in corner threes from kick outs.

You're not saying this, but regarding the topic at hand, KP post ups don't seem to be the leading candidate for an answer.

You're thought of having some higher percentage end game sets that include the mid range or high post plays, I have nothing against.

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And that´s ignoring that Luka is more likely to shoot a step back 3 in those situations anyway.

Luka has acknowledged that he can't just settle for that shot. Not sure at this point a step back three is the "more likely" result