Porzingis Postup Debate - Rick Carlisle vs TNT

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/NickVanExit/status/1...1303087107

[HanspardsShowerVoice]

LOL.  Morey gets it.

https://twitter.com/dmorey/status/1210607162298392576

I liked the Morey interview on Bill Simmons Book of Basketball podcast.  He admitted that Ming and McGrady were an awkward match offensively because Ming clogged up the paint for McGrady's penetration.  McGrady complained about it at the time but they didnt truly grasp how bad it was until they could look at it with modern analytics. 

Also said they specifically targeted Capella in the draft because they want rim runner bigs who dont clog the paint for Harden.

[burekemde]

https://twitter.com/NickVanExit/status/1...1303087107

I remember one of the two post ups yesterday. It was KP in the left side against Green. He couldn't back him down, KP lost the ball. Ball out of bounds, Warriors ball.

If you can't post up, you just can't do it. Luckely, KP can do many other things.

I will still continue to say, Luka can post up. We should see this in playoffs.

[Dahlsim]

I feel that basketball at the end of the day is still a game of mismatches. And mismatches need to be exploited, thats how you gain an advantage.
If KP vs a smaller defender in the post is not a mismatch given how KP is not a good post player (yet), regardless of his 7'3 frame, then there is nothing to be exploited, and it becomes a bad play.
With Dirk, is a mismatch every time - I remember the old Rockets games, they would switch the pick and roll with Jeremy Lin guarding Dirk, its a basket every time down the floor.
Its also a go to basket for the Mavs at the end of games.
With KP, until he becomes money at it, the team is right to move away from it now.
Having said that, KP is still just only 24, there's plenty of time to make it one of the better weapons in his arsenal, and the team will be better for it once it happens.

I feel that basketball at the end of the day is still a game of mismatches. And mismatches need to be exploited, thats how you gain an advantage.
If KP vs a smaller defender in the post is not a mismatch given how KP is not a good post player (yet), regardless of his 7'3 frame, then there is nothing to be exploited, and it becomes a bad play.
With Dirk, is a mismatch every time - I remember the old Rockets games, they would switch the pick and roll with Jeremy Lin guarding Dirk, its a basket every time down the floor.
Its also a go to basket for the Mavs at the end of games.
With KP, until he becomes money at it, the team is right to move away from it now.
Having said that, KP is still just only 24, there's plenty of time to make it one of the better weapons in his arsenal, and the team will be better for it once it happens.

Bingo a game of mismatch,  Luka is a mismatch in the post against anyone, at the end of games Mavs should exploit that.

I agree with this. The players that are effective in the post should be used. Luka is very effective there, yet rarely used in this role so far. I am pretty sure come playoff time, once defenses are better defending pick and roll and other designed plays, we willl see Luka in the post far more. This is the play that is impossible to defend, especially if the player posting knows how to pass it against double teams, and Luka sure does. Its hard to make any defensive schemes against this.

Given how effective Luka has been in the post, it is very surprising to see RC refusing to use this weapon more often. To me it speaks that this is "saved for the playoffs".

Just imagine having THJ/KP/DFS space the floor while Luka is posting up. Any of the defenders covering those cant double Luka, then he will find them open. Finally, Powell inside with his roll ability, his defender cant also come to double Luka. Its a nightmare play for any defense. Maybe only Kawhi/Clippers would stand a chance and even thats a question. Its a go to play in playoffs in case all the designed plays not work as effectively as they do now.

In this thread it has been also debated what to do when in a big lead, although the topic falls out from the KP post up game. What is needed is some rather safe plays that ensure we dont come with empty posessions. I see some of those:

1) Luka post up.

2) THJ coming off a screen, pass for him to catch and shoot (especially a mid range, long 2, he has been doing these very effectively), this can be designed in so many ways.

3) JJ, screen and allow him to penetrate the paint and make a floater, again many ways can be designed, but we have not seen RC use this weapon on design.

Call these 3 plays at the end and there won't be any blown away big leads.

Lots of excellent posts and points made here.  I recall back in the day  when basketball analysis was mostly weak sauce in Dallas as far as analyzing the game.   Strictly football and Cowboys time.   
It's different now, Mavs and Dirk and the championship I think have a lot to do with that. 

In terms of holding leads better this is all relevant to at least not getting into the record books so much for blowing big leads in record time. 
As someone said well earlier, efficient offense is part of the ability to defend well, its not disconnected. 

Great point about posting up depending a lot on the player offering a mismatch or not.  KP being not good at it is not so much a mismatch while guys like Dirk against a smaller guy was and Luka against anyone it seems may qualify as a mismatch in the post. 

I've said before, the language used by the TNTs creates some confusion because some points were really asking for KP to score inside, in the paint, close to the basket no matter how it was done, rim running, lobbing, driving, posting up, just get it inside Mr. Unicorn, especially when you have a mismatch. 
On the other some of the talk on TNT specified 'Posting up' rather than simply scoring close to rim, paint scoring.  
That's a different discussion and appears to be more specifically what Coach Carlisle's ranting was responding to. 

Alright, Mavs warmed up nicely on the Golden State Wimpys, bring on them Lakers and their Paint scoring machines, AD, Lebron not to mention guys at the 5 like Dwight Howard and former Mav/Warrior Javale McGee.   
Not really worried about the post though, stay home on Danny Green and Kyle Kuzma make em score inside.

[Mavs2019]

https://twitter.com/NickVanExit/status/1...1303087107

I remember one of the two post ups yesterday. It was KP in the left side against Green. He couldn't back him down, KP lost the ball. Ball out of bounds, Warriors ball.

If you can't post up, you just can't do it. Luckely, KP can do many other things.

I will still continue to say, Luka can post up. We should see this in playoffs.

It´s just physics. He just doesn´t have the center of gravity to post up somebody like Draymond. His dribble penetration is not very good either, because of his length. Between coordinating his long limbs and the ball simply travelling too far from his hand to the ground and up, it´s just a turnover waiting to happen. It´s like complaining about guards not blocking Porzingis 3pt shot on a switch. It´s kinda difficult, when he´s a foot taller than you.

[StepBackJay]

I agree on the center of gravity. Somehow Durant has done everything offensively as a 7 ft guy for years but he's one of the greatest NBA players of all time in my opinion.

I do like KP putting the ball on the floor but he just needs to pass out of it more often before he gets too deep. He gets enough attention to where he needs to pull the trigger on the pass faster before 3 guys try to rip at the ball. When he has enough space he can get in there and score an easy bucket. I think with time he will have better recognition of what to do in those situations. It's still better than a post-up.

I like KP on the move without the ball. He really plays more like a wing. There was one pass he received running through the paint and he just pulled up and hit it. That's a good shot. If you need iso's bc you see more iso's in the playoffs just give the ball to Luka. He can do iso's all day long but he doesn't have to either. Luka's PnR game will also work in the playoffs. I don't think KP needs to post up 5 times in a playoff game. If its low percentage now it will be also in the playoffs. It's just not as good a shot as what you can get spreading everybody out.

[fifteenth]

I've said before, the language used by the TNTs creates some confusion because some points were really asking for KP to score inside, in the paint, close to the basket no matter how it was done, rim running, lobbing, driving, posting up, just get it inside Mr. Unicorn, especially when you have a mismatch. 

Maybe the TNT crew is just not aware that KP drives, dunks, putbacks, lob catching, and lob throwing, all at or moving toward the basket, are part of the Mavs offense already. Maybe the confusion is just that they need to watch more Mavs.

[ItsGoTime]

I see a lot of the post ups he takes with his body sideways and shoulders slightly crooked to the basket. Seems like he can't do that effectively like Dirk did (could turn it into a strength to use as a quicker shot release, but it needs practice time, not game time). All of his turn around shot attempts are far from contested though, they just don't drop in very often. This is what I am saying when I say I think it will come. I can't imagine with as much space as he gives himself in a fade away that eventually it would not start dropping consistently. 

He for sure needs his grown man body to fill himself in. He's 5 inches taller than Powell, but the same weight, and Powell gets pushed around quite a bit. Whoever talked about the center of gravity is absolutely right.

[Dahlsim]

I agree on the center of gravity. Somehow Durant has done everything offensively as a 7 ft guy for years but he's one of the greatest NBA players of all time in my opinion.

I do like KP putting the ball on the floor but he just needs to pass out of it more often before he gets too deep. He gets enough attention to where he needs to pull the trigger on the pass faster before 3 guys try to rip at the ball. When he has enough space he can get in there and score an easy bucket. I think with time he will have better recognition of what to do in those situations. It's still better than a post-up.

I like KP on the move without the ball. He really plays more like a wing. There was one pass he received running through the paint and he just pulled up and hit it. That's a good shot. If you need iso's bc you see more iso's in the playoffs just give the ball to Luka. He can do iso's all day long but he doesn't have to either. Luka's PnR game will also work in the playoffs. I don't think KP needs to post up 5 times in a playoff game. If its low percentage now it will be also in the playoffs. It's just not as good a shot as what you can get spreading everybody out.

Durant is effective pretty much everywhere offensively, at least he was when was healthy.  Reminds us that the personnel are required to make any coaching system work.  
Its interesting the way KP and Luka provide floor spacing gravity with their green light on 3's even when they are not yet shooting a great % at 33% and 34%.  Throw in THJ and Seth into that floor stretching mix now as well.  

Right now it looks like the same system Coach Carlisle has been trying to run without much success for the past seasons since the championship now has the just the right personnel for what he envisioned. 
Coach now has a brilliant PG/Point Forward F that can run the system just the way Coach wants it and still improvise as needed, a 7'3" Unicorn that plays like a talented wing on offense but defends the rim like a talented center on defense, an array of talented shooters that can take advantage of the spacing and the mobile high bbiq glue guys that can do all the dirty work.  

Looks like the right marriage of personnel to system!

[StepBackJay]

Doncic is unlikely to ever shoot a great 3% percentage since he takes extremely difficult shots. He will make a bunch and is still a good shooter. That's really not an issue of course because he does so much on offense and he seems to make clutch 3's when the team needs them.

I think this system is great and KP is doing just fine, getting better by the day. He is learning where his looks should come from. He has a lot of tools and so he is just getting more and more comfortable. KP's efficiency is only going to get better.

[fifteenth]

I've written quite a bit in this thread and I want to go full circle back to the thread title and put a bow on this, possibly for just my own satisfaction.

The title is: Porzingis Postup Debate - Rick Carlisle vs TNT

So the TNT guys thought KP could be used more effectively, and that he should play more like a 7'3" should play. Maybe even more like what he had done in NY.

Rick came to the defense of KP, how he's playing and how he's being used.

The thing that baffles me about some of this discussion stems from this thread's responses to TNT vs Rick, the post up debate (the thing that begat the thread).

Do folks really prefer that KP play more like he did in NY?

Do folks really not like that Rick ranted IN DEFENSE of KP?

This discussion just seems so simple to me. Of course KP will do better to fit into the Mavs system rather than they way NY plays. Of course it's awesome that Rick went to bat for KP.

Is TNT vs Rick regarding KP post ups (see thread title) really a debate?

No!!!

The only way folks have made any headway in taking TNT's side is to move the initial goal posts and adjust what the TNT guys said.

"It's not actually about post ups, it's about getting shots close to the basket."

Oh, but he does get shots close to the basket.

"Oh well, it's about, it's about..."

No, it's actually about the TNT guys having no idea what's going on with KP and the Mavs system, and about a coach publicly squashing the silliness in defense of his guy.

[hakeemfan]

Getting lobs and dunks near the basket can be done even by low skill players like McGee, Powell, and Dwight. KP should be able to do much more. We need more half court sets that will give him more mid range shots.

The key is to never be one-dimensional. It’s not that mid range is bad or 3s are bad. Anything in excess the other team will shut you down. The only team this didn’t apply to was GS with 3 ridiculous outside shooters.

[J0n]

On the national television broadcast from TNT they commented in some detail on the way the Mavs use Kristaps Porzingis offensively, particularly the relatively lack of inside play or 'Post up play'.  The remarks were replied to directly by Rick Carlisle Carlisle responds about the post up  after a reporter referenced the criticism that aired on the National Broadcast.   

While acknowledging respect for Coach Carlisle, a coach with an NBA championship on his resume and respected as a top coach in the NBA around the league, the remarks got pretty, pretty sharp at points from Barkley, Shaq and even Kenny respectfully criticized the general way Porzingis offense is being used saying the ratio of inside shots, close to the basket should be more like 7 to 3 inside vs 3 pointers rather than the reverse it seems to often be now. 

https://youtu.be/L1UzpWZgu_Q?t=767 - Inside The NBA | Charles & Shaq "strong reacts": Mavericks 102-98 Spurs, Jazz  

Its all part of the bigger trends in NBA offense, guard dominated vs center dominated, 3-point revolution etc.  
My general thought is Rick is right overall about the trends of the league and the facts bear that out especially when we talk about post up play and its massive decline across the league. 

On the other hand I do agree somewhat that there is a problem evident sometimes in the way some coaches, Rick Carlisle included, skew perimeter offense even at times where inside play from big men would make much more sense.   
The massive case in point came just the other day when the Mavericks rotations and offense blew a massive late game 30 point lead to go into the history books as one of the worst blown leads of all time in the league. 

It ended up being the biggest comeback in franchise history for the Raptors, who trailed by 30 points late in the third quarter. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, it was the first 30-point comeback by an NBA team in a regular-season game in a decade

In fact the Mavericks as a franchise have some history for blowing these massive leads.  It may well have to do with fact that several Mavs coaches and Mavs teams have tended to be perimeter oriented and lacked high percentage reliable inside big men scoring which can help stabilize offensive spurts and preserve leads against counter runs. 

That said there's no denying that Carlisle is right about post up play in general The Post-up Is Deader Than Dead in the NBA

the post-up is much deader now than five years ago. Since the 2014-15 season, the leaguewide post-up rate has been cut nearly in half, down to just 4.7 percent of possessions thus far in 2019-20.

Where the discussion and disagreement might be misleading regarding the Mavs and Porzingis is that it wasn't necessarily just about Post up play but about getting baskets that are close to the basket.   As Shaq said, shots close to the basket are simply higher percentage.  
Rick Carlisle has other ways of getting those shots for KP however including many of his great rim runs, slashes, rolls leading to dunks and great finishes. 

Another good point Barkley made is that its not as though Porzingis and many other big men are shooting the great 40% 3 range and in fact sometimes the % is quite low.   So its worth questioning if perhaps a few of those shots would have been better taken inside, and maybe drawing a foul as well. 
Then on the other hand again, when suddenly KP drains 3 3's in a row it can help blow a game open quickly. 

In terms of the 1/2 court offense however, this debate will continue no doubt and be fun to watch especially since the Mavericks have a some of the biggest BIG men in the league and a unicorn star at 7'3" with a size (length anyway) advantage to exploit almost every night. 

I concur.

---

I've written quite a bit in this thread and I want to go full circle back to the thread title and put a bow on this, possibly for just my own satisfaction.

The title is: Porzingis Postup Debate - Rick Carlisle vs TNT

So the TNT guys thought KP could be used more effectively, and that he should play more like a 7'3" should play. Maybe even more like what he had done in NY.

Rick came to the defense of KP, how he's playing and how he's being used.

The thing that baffles me about some of this discussion stems from this thread's responses to TNT vs Rick, the post up debate (the thing that begat the thread).

Do folks really prefer that KP play more like he did in NY?

Do folks really not like that Rick ranted IN DEFENSE of KP?

This discussion just seems so simple to me. Of course KP will do better to fit into the Mavs system rather than they way NY plays. Of course it's awesome that Rick went to bat for KP.

Is TNT vs Rick regarding KP post ups (see thread title) really a debate?

No!!!

The only way folks have made any headway in taking TNT's side is to move the initial goal posts and adjust what the TNT guys said.

"It's not actually about post ups, it's about getting shots close to the basket."

Oh, but he does get shots close to the basket.

"Oh well, it's about, it's about..."

No, it's actually about the TNT guys having no idea what's going on with KP and the Mavs system, and about a coach publicly squashing the silliness in defense of his guy.

Look, pal, Kp sucks. 
Hes good at blocking shots. Hes shawn Bradley with three point range. Hes also softer than fresh biscuits on a Sunday morning

[Dahlsim]

I've said before, the language used by the TNTs creates some confusion because some points were really asking for KP to score inside, in the paint, close to the basket no matter how it was done, rim running, lobbing, driving, posting up, just get it inside Mr. Unicorn, especially when you have a mismatch. 

Maybe the TNT crew is just not aware that KP drives, dunks, putbacks, lob catching, and lob throwing, all at or moving toward the basket, are part of the Mavs offense already. Maybe the confusion is just that they need to watch more Mavs.

Yes the title of the thread I posted and the headline from the discussion features the 'Post up' as the main discussion point.  Its appropriate because Barkley and Shaq tended to reference 'Post up' and Rick Carlisle's rant responded particularly to the usage of 'Post up'. 
The discussion on TNT's Inside the NBA show and even Carlisle's comments actually were more nuanced and went a deeper than the post up question. 
Kenny especially referenced the ratio of shots taken close to the rim vs the outside shot / 3 pointers.  Carlisle also spoke about his belief that KP is an historically good outside shooter or some such which Barkley then challenged that assertion. 
So yeah, the basketball analysis and discussion was not as shallow as it sometimes can be on that show.

---

Look, pal, Kp sucks. 
Hes good at blocking shots. Hes shawn Bradley with three point range. Hes also softer than fresh biscuits on a Sunday morning

LoL.  But, but, that's a such pleasant image, unlike the idea of Bradley or KP getting pushed around brutally in the paint. 

[ItsGoTime]

unlike the idea of Bradley or KP getting pushed around brutally in the paint.

Add Powell to that list.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Nice addition to the conversation...

https://theathletic.com/1494932/2019/12/...sacrifice/

[Dahlsim]

Nice addition to the conversation...

https://theathletic.com/1494932/2019/12/...sacrifice/

 Looks good in the summary but need a sub.   Hmm. 

The Gist appears to be that Zinger has sacrificed his own potentially more gaudy statline which is part of the reason the team is now at a pace significantly better than most expected. 

I can buy that, especially when you consider how much better his stats were with a Knicks team that was not even in a playoff discussion. 
The flip side would be that if KP's close to the rim  vs perimeter shot ratio were better then is shooting % would be better AND the team would be even better still.  Of course that's only true IF KP TS% is higher all the way around due to the the adjustment.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I can buy that, especially when you consider how much better his stats were with a Knicks team that was not even in a playoff discussion. 

The flip side would be that if KP's close to the rim  vs perimeter shot ratio were better then is shooting % would be better AND the team would be even better still.  Of course that's only true IF KP TS% is higher all the way around due to the the adjustment.

In the case of KP, the flip side doesn't exist:

"[b]Dallas doesn’t want him to post up because he’s not good at posting up.
[/b]
Among the 62 players who have played at least 15 games and used at least 1 chance per game in the post, per Synergy data, Porzingis is dead last in efficiency, averaging 0.57 pts/play. Overall, the Mavs are averaging a touch under 1.02 pts/play, one of three teams averaging over 1 point per play (alongside the Bucks — more on them in a minute — and Rockets). So a Porzingis post up is barely generating half of the offense as an average Dallas play, which seems bad.
The “but he’s Seven-Foot-Three” cry misses an important point. While he has a height advantage over virtually anyone who will guard him, he does not necessarily have a size advantage, at least not in a functional sense. When exploiting a size mismatch, the advantage is gained by almost literally putting the smaller player under the basket with superior strength and length. While a tall player might be able to shoot over a smaller one, a contested 12 footer is still a contested 12 footer, and if a player can never bully his way closer to the restricted area, those turnaround jumpers are a tough living."

"Even if one were to argue that Porzingis would be more effective posting up if Dallas were more committed to it, he has about one half of one season of demonstrated effectiveness as a post player, before his ACL injury in 2017-18, where he scored 0.96 points per chance, good for 75th percentile after being 311st and 45th percentile in post efficiency the previous two seasons. Plus, as discussed below, Carlisle isn’t in the business of maximizing Porzingis, his job is to put out the best overall offense he can. Carlisle didn’t say postups were bad for Porzingis, he said they were bad for the Mavs’ offense, full stop:"

The article goes on to point out that Dallas, like Lopez and Milwaukee is incredible in the paint BECAUSE KP (and Lopez) spend so little time there clogging things up.  It is just a different philosophy than Barkley or Shaq backing their man down on the block.  That Philosophy has "Luka and a bunch of 7th/8th men" putting out one of the most prolific offenses in history (we hear a lot about the 116 O-Rating being the best raw per 100 number ever, but the article says it is the 13th highest spread to league average.  I think that is the more fair way to view it.  O-Rating inflation is rampant and we are the biggest beneficiary of NBA Quantitative Easing.

[BolsDamols]

- Some good points and counterarguments in this video, which some people have already discussed in this thread
Not just about KP posting up but value of overall post play in general..

[reckoner07]

Son: "Hey Dad, Waze says you should take Main Street."

Dad: "That way has too many lights."

Son: "But the average drive time on Main Street is 30 minutes. The freeway is 45"

Dad: "I don't care. Main Street always has traffic this time of day."

Son: "Actually, traffic is light today. Looks like it will only take 25 minutes on Main Street. Plus there's a wreck on the freeway causing a 10 minute delay."

Dad: "Look, I've been driving there for 30 years. You go 75 mph on the freeway. I'm not sitting a red lights on Main Street. Just doesn't make sense. I'm taking the freeway"

Hahaha, this is perfect!

There will always be a place for the post game - as an option out of the primary scoring opportunity. Everything is percentages.  Look for the highest percentage option first, then if a better opportunity opens up in the post, because the perimeter is covered, take it.  But why would you seek out lower percentage opportunities as a primary option on a trip down the court, when you can have a higher expected value?  Those expected values add up... and when you have a high-powered efficient perimeter offense, the aggregate of those expected value differentials sum up to wins.