Porzingis Postup Debate - Rick Carlisle vs TNT

[StepBackJay]

On NBA stats if I am reading this right he is 28% on post ups this year vs 43% FG in 2017. So even if he got to 43% that's not worth as much as 33% from 3. In 2017 he shot almost 40% from 3.

For some easy math if he makes 43 post ups out of 100 shots that's 86 points. 33 3s is worth 99 points. And 33% isn't even league average. So he wins even today when he is shooting at a mediocre clip.

[dirkfansince1998]

On NBA stats if I am reading this right he is 28% on post ups this year vs 43% FG in 2017. So even if he got to 43% that's not worth as much as 33% from 3. In 2017 he shot almost 40% from 3.

For some easy math if he makes 43 post ups out of 100 shots that's 86 points. 33 3s is worth 99 points. And 33% isn't even league average. So he wins even today when he is shooting at a mediocre clip.

Not that easy. Post ups draw more fouls but also lead to more turnovers. That´s why it is better to go with PPP in this case. 3-point attempts are still more efficient but it´s closer.

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KP has a

He simply just does not have the skill of posting up

That´s actually not true. In 2018 he ranked among the best post players which still is not saying that the shot is efficient.

I havent watched him as a Knick, so I cant tell. All I know in 2019 he for sure does not have that skill, its proven through 30 games. Also, be careful with that stat, it also depens on the volume and circumstance.

 
All stats are useless without context but in this case I compared players with similar roles. They were/are among the league leaders in post ups. It´t the best stat we have in this case. I already mentioned one of the weaknesses. Jokic looks really mediocre as a scorer but obviously makes up for it with playmaking. Something scoring efficiency numbers cannot measure.

[ItsGoTime]

Not that easy. Post ups draw more fouls but also lead to more turnovers. That´s why it is better to go with PPP in this case. 3-point attempts are still more efficient but it´s closer.

That's also not to mention that the 43% is including his 3% from that year of 39%. His 2P% was 45.4%, still not the best, but also still not all just post up plays. The post up is also to give the defense something else to react to. If shooting a 30 footer is good for the goose, the post up is good for the gander...or something like that.

[Fuerza1]

Posting-up is a ball stopping play. Porzingis was "good" at this in 2017-18 but remember it was only 48 games on a tanking Knicks team. Harrison Barnes was also a good post-up player on a tanking team. As dirkfansince alluded to, unless you have Embiid or Jokic, it probably shouldn't be a major part of your offense.

But as others have said, it also doesn't mean you have to cancel it out completely. For all of Carlisle's talk of it being a bad play, it is still part of Porzingis' offense; he takes about 2 shots out of the post per game. If you're still going to attempt them, make them count. He isn't taking advantage of mismatches, own up to it. 

Porzingis overall isn't shooting well either. His TS% is one of the worst among other NBA big's. If posting up is considered a low percentage play, you can make a case his shooting is too.

[ItsGoTime]

Posting-up is a ball stopping play. Porzingis was "good" at this in 2017-18 but remember it was only 48 games on a tanking Knicks team. Harrison Barnes was also a good post-up player on a tanking team. As dirkfansince alluded to, unless you have Embiid or Jokic, it probably shouldn't be a major part of your offense.

But as others have said, it also doesn't mean you have to cancel it out completely. For all of Carlisle's talk of it being a bad play, it is still part of Porzingis' offense; he takes about 2 shots out of the post per game. If you're still going to attempt them, make them count. He isn't taking advantage of mismatches, own up to it. 

Porzingis overall isn't shooting well either. His TS% is one of the worst among other NBA big's. If posting up is considered a low percentage play, you can make a case his shooting is too.

I like this post so much. Only thing I'll say is it is a ball stopping play if the defense doesn't react to it and at least double team it. KP is tall enough, over any other player to see where the defense is weakest and good enough to pass the ball there. 

It used to be that a team shoots 3 pointers to open up the lane for the post up players. The opposite could be true now. The team posts players up to open up 3 point shots. Doesn't look like RC will ever buy into that theory after that rant though. Not that that needs to be the overall offensive strategy, just a change of pace kinda thing when the defense is stopping your main strategy. Food for thought.

[Hypermav]

[bartlettbear]

NBA players shoot 65% from within 4 feet on tbe basket, so if you get a good look from post it is a great play at any level.

KP problem In tbe post his he takes a fade away makes no sense against smaller defenders

It does not stop the ball anymore than pick and roll stops the ball. If they double the ball gets moved, if no double comes player as any skill in tbe post should score 65% of the time. The problem is most guys don't anymore.

Luka is great is the post and he is such an excellent passer Mavs should utilize him in tbe post more.

KP elbow extended, shooters in corner, Luka in low block, another shooter on wing opposite KP.

Floor is spaced. Ball will be moved if double comes.

If not Luka can would score at will.

[Hypermav]

Good discussion, I like that RC just laid it out there regarding KP.

[Tyler]

LOL.  Morey gets it.

https://twitter.com/dmorey/status/1210607162298392576

[BolsDamols]

I feel that basketball at the end of the day is still a game of mismatches. And mismatches need to be exploited, thats how you gain an advantage.
If KP vs a smaller defender in the post is not a mismatch given how KP is not a good post player (yet), regardless of his 7'3 frame, then there is nothing to be exploited, and it becomes a bad play.
With Dirk, is a mismatch every time - I remember the old Rockets games, they would switch the pick and roll with Jeremy Lin guarding Dirk, its a basket every time down the floor.
Its also a go to basket for the Mavs at the end of games.
With KP, until he becomes money at it, the team is right to move away from it now.
Having said that, KP is still just only 24, there's plenty of time to make it one of the better weapons in his arsenal, and the team will be better for it once it happens.

[bartlettbear]

I feel that basketball at the end of the day is still a game of mismatches. And mismatches need to be exploited, thats how you gain an advantage.
If KP vs a smaller defender in the post is not a mismatch given how KP is not a good post player (yet), regardless of his 7'3 frame, then there is nothing to be exploited, and it becomes a bad play.
With Dirk, is a mismatch every time - I remember the old Rockets games, they would switch the pick and roll with Jeremy Lin guarding Dirk, its a basket every time down the floor.
Its also a go to basket for the Mavs at the end of games.
With KP, until he becomes money at it, the team is right to move away from it now.
Having said that, KP is still just only 24, there's plenty of time to make it one of the better weapons in his arsenal, and the team will be better for it once it happens.

Bingo a game of mismatch, Luka is a mismatch in the post against anyone, at the end of games Mavs should exploit that.

[burekemde]

I feel that basketball at the end of the day is still a game of mismatches. And mismatches need to be exploited, thats how you gain an advantage.
If KP vs a smaller defender in the post is not a mismatch given how KP is not a good post player (yet), regardless of his 7'3 frame, then there is nothing to be exploited, and it becomes a bad play.
With Dirk, is a mismatch every time - I remember the old Rockets games, they would switch the pick and roll with Jeremy Lin guarding Dirk, its a basket every time down the floor.
Its also a go to basket for the Mavs at the end of games.
With KP, until he becomes money at it, the team is right to move away from it now.
Having said that, KP is still just only 24, there's plenty of time to make it one of the better weapons in his arsenal, and the team will be better for it once it happens.

Bingo a game of mismatch, Luka is a mismatch in the post against anyone, at the end of games Mavs should exploit that.

I agree with this. The players that are effective in the post should be used. Luka is very effective there, yet rarely used in this role so far. I am pretty sure come playoff time, once defenses are better defending pick and roll and other designed plays, we willl see Luka in the post far more. This is the play that is impossible to defend, especially if the player posting knows how to pass it against double teams, and Luka sure does. Its hard to make any defensive schemes against this.

Given how effective Luka has been in the post, it is very surprising to see RC refusing to use this weapon more often. To me it speaks that this is "saved for the playoffs".

Just imagine having THJ/KP/DFS space the floor while Luka is posting up. Any of the defenders covering those cant double Luka, then he will find them open. Finally, Powell inside with his roll ability, his defender cant also come to double Luka. Its a nightmare play for any defense. Maybe only Kawhi/Clippers would stand a chance and even thats a question. Its a go to play in playoffs in case all the designed plays not work as effectively as they do now.

[ThisIStheYear]

Always interesting to read a debate between people who understand math and people who don’t. I see a lot of confusion, special pleading, and muddled logic in this thread. 1) Post scoring isn’t the same as paint scoring. High shooting percentages inside of four feet are in spite of not because of post play. 2) Regardless of whether the Mavs should run more back to the basket plays, Zinger just isn’t very good at it relative to average efficiency across all shots. He’s turnover prone in those situations and doesn’t seem to have the physical ability to turn his long frame and shoot with balance (maybe he should develop a skyhook). He’s certainly not as good at post play as he is at creating space for other players to operate in the paint. 3) I’m not even certain losing leads quickly is a Mav’s specialty. Mavs fans just haven’t had a team to watch in this modern era that had leads to blow in the first place, so they’re just not used to the new normal NBA game flow. The NBA is played at a faster pace now, and the shot clock resets to 14 not 24 seconds. Faster possessions means it just takes less time to overcome a lead for all teams. I’d need to see some real data to know if the Mavs really do struggle to hold leads relative to other teams. No one has shown any. 4) Mostly though, this focus on the offense as the reason for blown leads, particularly the Toronto game, is misguided. The Mavs need defense. They gave up 47 points in the 4th quarter at Toronto, an absurd number, even by today’s standards. That’s why they lost. Time to go get a defensive player (like Iggy) to add to the rotation. That would help much more than any kind of tweak you could make to the league’s best offense.

[dirkfansince1998]

Always interesting to read a debate between people who understand math and people who don’t. I see a lot of confusion, special pleading, and muddled logic in this thread. 1) Post scoring isn’t the same as paint scoring.  High shooting percentages inside of four feet are in spite of not because of post play. 2) Regardless of whether the Mavs should run more back to the basket plays, Zinger just isn’t very good at it relative to average efficiency across all shots. He’s turnover prone in those situations and doesn’t seem to have the physical ability to turn his long frame and shoot with balance (maybe he should develop a skyhook). He’s certainly not as good at post play as he is at creating space for other players to operate in the paint.  3) I’m not even certain losing leads quickly is a Mav’s specialty.  Mavs fans just haven’t had a team to watch in this modern era that had leads to blow in the first place, so they’re just not used to the new normal NBA game flow. The NBA is played at a faster pace now, and the shot clock resets to 14 not 24 seconds.  Faster possessions means it just takes less time to overcome a lead for all teams. I’d need to see some real data to know if the Mavs really do struggle to hold leads relative to other teams.  No one has shown any.  4) Mostly though, this focus on the offense as the reason for blown leads, particularly the Toronto game, is misguided.  The Mavs need defense.  They gave up 47 points in the 4th quarter at Toronto, an absurd number, even by today’s standards. That’s why they lost.  Time to go get a defensive player (like Iggy) to add to the rotation.  That would help much more than any kind of tweak you could make to the league’s best offense.

I think the reliance on 3-point shooting definitely plays a role and an alternative scoring option would help. Again...not saying that KP in the post is the solution. The high volume 3-point shooting can lead to big runs for any team but it can also lead to scoring droughts. That´s what we are seeing with the Mavs. Overall the scheme works because the Mavs are having the league leading offense but in a smaller sample size (for example a single quarter) bricking 3s might be a reason why the Mavs struggle to close out games.
Against the Raptors the Mavs went 1-10 from 3 in the 4th quarter. 4-8 from 2. They had 7 tov in the 4th quarter. Offensive execution was just as big of a problem as the lack of defense.
Missed shots and turnover lead to easy transition offense. I wouldn´t blame everything on the defense because a good defense starts with an efficient offense.

[StepBackJay]

LOL.  Morey gets it.

https://twitter.com/dmorey/status/1210607162298392576

Feels like a troll to me. How many times do Rox post up anybody? It's not just because they don't have a guy with a good post up game. They don't acquire those guys. Westbrook might post up occasionally? That's the only one I can think of.

KP isn't a good post up player and post ups aren't efficient.

To those who say yes but you draw more fouls. You also turn the ball over more and KP can draw fouls from the 3 point line when he drives after a pump fake. People are slow to come around. For years the Mavs were screwed because they could never get a big man of the quality of Duncan or Shaq. The game has changed. It's pace and space y'all.

We have the number offense and people want KP taking low percentage shots. Early in the year I thought he should do more face up in the post vs back to the basket. I still think that's true, he can improve his post up looks but in the end it's never going to be highly efficient. The way you win is 3s and paint shots.

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As far as Luka post ups go he does it every so often but again he's more effective with the dribble at the top of the point line. He gets to the basket with ease and is a master at finding open guys. The post up look for him is really just a way to mix things up once or twice a game. Again if it ain't broke don't fix it. What the Mavs need to improve more than anything is late game execution and defense. Their defense is good but it needs to get better to go deep in the playoffs. Late game execution isn't great. I think it's something that will get better with time as guys get more used to each other and as everyone gains experience.

[Dundalis]

NBA players shoot 65% from within 4 feet on tbe basket, so if you get a good look from post it is a great play at any level.

KP problem In tbe post his he takes a fade away makes no sense against smaller defenders

It does not stop the ball anymore than pick and roll stops the ball. If they double the ball gets moved,  if no double comes  player as any skill in tbe post should score 65% of the time. The problem is most guys don't anymore. 

Luka is great is the post and he is such an excellent passer Mavs should utilize him in tbe post more.

KP elbow extended, shooters in corner, Luka in low block, another shooter on wing opposite KP.

Floor is spaced.  Ball will be moved if double comes.

If not Luka can would score at will.

Sorry, but just stop with the equivalence between a post up and a shot at the rim. They are NOT the same thing. With even the best post up players in the league, most of their post up shots do not end up with a shot within 3 feet. Some of the better, actual high volume post scorers, like Embiid and Davis are only scoring 52% and 50% on them respectively.

[Tyler]

LOL.  Morey gets it.

https://twitter.com/dmorey/status/1210607162298392576

Feels like a troll to me. How many times do Rox post up anybody?

Of course. He’s trolling Eddie Johnson for being a loud old man out of touch with the modern NBA. Morey is the king of using analytics to reinvent how the game is played, and has been pushing the value of 3s over post-ups for years. He’s unquestionably on team Carlisle on this one.

[burekemde]

In this thread it has been also debated what to do when in a big lead, although the topic falls out from the KP post up game. What is needed is some rather safe plays that ensure we dont come with empty posessions. I see some of those:

1) Luka post up.

2) THJ coming off a screen, pass for him to catch and shoot (especially a mid range, long 2, he has been doing these very effectively), this can be designed in so many ways.

3) JJ, screen and allow him to penetrate the paint and make a floater, again many ways can be designed, but we have not seen RC use this weapon on design.

Call these 3 plays at the end and there won't be any blown away big leads.

[Jym]

In this thread it has been also debated what to do when in a big lead, although the topic falls out from the KP post up game. What is needed is some rather safe plays that ensure we dont come with empty posessions. I see some of those:

1) Luka post up.

2) THJ coming off a screen, pass for him to catch and shoot (especially a mid range, long 2, he has been doing these very effectively), this can be designed in so many ways.

3) JJ, screen and allow him to penetrate the paint and make a floater, again many ways can be designed, but we have not seen RC use this weapon on design.

Call these 3 plays at the end and there won't be any blown away big leads.

I wish we did see more mid range shots off of screens for THJ like Richard Hamilton lived on. Such a smooth shot for Timmy that always seems to go in

[burekemde]

In this thread it has been also debated what to do when in a big lead, although the topic falls out from the KP post up game. What is needed is some rather safe plays that ensure we dont come with empty posessions. I see some of those:

1) Luka post up.

2) THJ coming off a screen, pass for him to catch and shoot (especially a mid range, long 2, he has been doing these very effectively), this can be designed in so many ways.

3) JJ, screen and allow him to penetrate the paint and make a floater, again many ways can be designed, but we have not seen RC use this weapon on design.

Call these 3 plays at the end and there won't be any blown away big leads.

I wish we did see more mid range shots off of screens for THJ like Richard Hamilton lived on. Such a smooth shot for Timmy that always seems to go in

I'm getting more and more impressed by his mid range shot. He seems to be the only one that has this consistently, the rest of the players thrives either on inside the paint or the 3 point game. You can call this play at any time, it's hard to stop when a screen has been designed for THJ. Hamilton is good comparison. THJ has very smooth shot indeed, and his mechanics are very consistent. I would like to see him take more mid range shots on expense on his 3 pointers, he would become more consistent IMO.