Porzingis Postup Debate - Rick Carlisle vs TNT

[dirkfansince1998]

And a Harden drive was the bail out for the Rockets. Did not work. Not as reliable as a midrange shot or postup if I am just interested in 2-points for a single possession.
And that´s ignoring that Luka is more likely to shoot a step back 3 in those situations anyway.

I'm not against Dirk or KD style post ups if we have spmeone who can do it. But KD didn't always post up. He faced up and drove. Many of Dirk's biggest moments were drives. Luka can post up, and his drives aren't exactly like Hardens. Harden relies so much on getting fouled or shooting the 3. Luka seems to have endless iterations of layups, floaters and even turn around jumpers. Jordan and other great players started end game scenarios facing the basket and creating off the dribble. Many famous end game scenarios have ended in corner threes from kick outs.

You're not saying this, but regarding the topic at hand, KP post ups don't seem to be the leading candidate for an answer.

You're thought of having some higher percentage end game sets that include the mid range or high post plays, I have nothing against.

Agree. I don´t think posting up KP is the solution or it at least isn´t the solution right now. I don´t really care if the solution is a face up or post up play. Mavs just desperately need an alternative option when the high octane pick and roll offense struggles. It´s probably more about the lack of a reliable 2nd option and less about the actual play call.

[Dahlsim]

Fifteenth said it better than I could I will add one more thing. KP is not good at post ups. So we want him to do a lot more post ups even tho he's terrible at it and has this far regressed from his Knicks days? And he never was Dirk-like efficiency in there. Rick is right and the TNT guys are wrong.

My one concern with KP is he keeps adding the asterisk that he's on board with this system because we are winning. My hope is that he eventually figures out the same thing coaches and analytics people are figuring out which is that post-ups aren't the way to win basketball games. It doesn't matter that he likes them any more than it mattered that Dwight Howard used to like post ups. They are dying because there's more efficient ways to score and the Mavs have the best offense in NBA history right now.

 

Agree, back to the basket post up is not KP's strong suite.  Carlisle himself said he doesn't mind seeing KP take a few so let's consider the few he might take for a minute. 

It was never Dirk's either for that matter but I like that he never abandoned it completely, worked on it and I think it not only helped them eventually in some of their battles against Duncan and San Antonio, but it eventually bled into Dirk developing his post into the One-Legged-Fadeaway.      In that sense, maybe KP's move from the post will never look like Shaqs finishes but the ability to simply extend his massive reach and get clean shot at the rim could be just as easy to do.  

I think the issue is not really about simple 'Post Up' but its really about inside, close to the basket high percentage shots you can go to in the 1/2 court game.  I love the modern cuts and lobs however when the defense is set and has a wall packing the paint you're not going to consistently get those against the 1/2 court defenses of elite teams.   That's where the Mavs high powered offense sometimes gets shut down completely for critical stretches of games. The same thing used to happen btw with Don Nelson offenses and Mike D'Antoni offenses which never got past the top teams. 

Tim Duncan's 'Post up' was often a very reliable face up bank shot.  Deadly. Run killer, run extender, money in the bank when Spurs shooter were cold. 
Hakeem the Dream was devastating with footwork converting post ups to pivots, dream shakes, drives. Probably the only small center I can think of that could absolutely destroy the bigger stronger Shaq from the post. 
Wilt still owns all the massive scoring records with posts into finger rolls and the ultimate machine was Kareem and his post up into the Sky Hook.  
As the article I linked to in the OP points out, part of the issue is simply that modern bigs aren't good at inside scoring from the post any more.  Very few have developed the refined skill to find some unguardable move or two that can produce efficiently starting from the post position.

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Somehow this post up discussion is getting mixed into the discussion about the Mavs struggling with late game execution.

The deal is, someone can claim that post ups are useful in end of game scenarios, and that's fine, but in this case it's a non-sequitor.

The Mavs end game struggles aren't about needing low post sets, they're about how to handle pressure, how to keep composure, how to keep attacking, how to execute your stuff when the other team raises the intensity.

I take some blame for that 15th.  As I've said if you listen closely to the remarks by the TNT guys its not really just about 'Post Ups' but they also talk about scoring close to the basket, in the paint and high percentage baskets.  This is well known about the difference that happens for example in playoff basketball when teams are prepared to defend one team and 1/2 court offense will be forced and become totally relevant. 

So I suggested that the ability to hold big leads better than other teams is related to not only defense but also to being able to score high % shots that slow down the opponents ability to catch up fast.  Trading 3 for 2 or even getting the missed short inside shot off the rim doesn't catch up nearly as fast as getting the long missed jumper and bringing it back to quickly drop your own 3 pointers.  

So yes, I'm saying there is a relationship here between blowing big leads fast and lacking inside scoring offense.

[fifteenth]

So yes, I'm saying there is a relationship here between blowing big leads fast and lacking inside scoring offense.

The Mavs offense produces a lot of shots close to the basket. I don't think they lack inside scoring.

[Dahlsim]

I had to switch off mobile dark to read the entire OP. A couple of thoughts:

There are several quotes in the OP, some I think from the OP and some from TNT that imply that post play is the answer to scoring buckets in end game scenarios. One quote suggests that the Mavs have a history of blowing leads because they've been perimeter oriented. 

I don't buy either. Tell me which NBA teams are closing games by throwing the ball into the low post? Drive and score or kick has replaced low post sets, and for good reason. Also, the Mavs aren't a perimeter team. For a large percentage of their offense they use spacing and motion to get players moving downhill towards the basket. Many of their 3s come from this.

Shaq says shots closer to the basket are higher percentage. And Barkley says it's not like these big guys are shooting 40%. 

But we know better than to fall for this logic. The value of a shot isn't found in shooting percentage alone. It takes shooting over 50% on 2s to create more value than 33% on 3s, not to mention 3 pt shooting creates valuable space for the most valuable shot, the one taken at the rim.

I think we're using bad logic about shot value combined with a misdiagnosis of the Mavs end game issues and mixing that with a discussion of how KP should be used. 

Playing a downhill game that results in shots at the rim and open 3s is creates more valuable shots than a post up game.

Teams don't close games by turning to post ups, they continue to play downhill.

The Mavs end game woes have been about failure to execute under pressure, not about needing post ups.

KP has the perfect skill set, I think, to play in the game the Mavs are playing, and we've seen glimpses of beautiful basketball result from it.

GS turned to KDs iso/post up game in crucial moments. Raptors turned to Kawhis oldman Jordan game last season. What you are mentioning is working in 9/10 cases and I want the Mavs to run a pick and roll motion offense.
For me the entire postup debate isn´t really about KP. It´s more about the Mavs needing a different scheme on offense to get buckets when the shooters are cold and the pick and roll motion offense isn´t working. Isos, post ups, whatever works. They need a bail out option.
I don´t want them to end up like the D´Anthony Rockets. Missing 19 consecutive 3s in game 7 of the conference finals.

 

Halleluka!   Adding Kevin Durants high % inside and midrange scoring is what put GSW over the top of dominance just as Lebron led Kyrie/Kevin Love Cavs had caught up and were ready to challenge them year after year.  Lebron said it, the difference KD and the difference with KD was his size and skill allowed high powered offense inside, including the the post and midrange as well as outside. 

Kawhi's inside and outside game, including post put the Raptors over the top last year.  
Clippers interestingly also have Paul George who mixes in the some inside scoring and post play with his superb shooting perimeter game. 
I'm with you. Mavs scheme is great, when its great, which is most of time and in the regular season but they clearly need some alternate ways to play offense and stay out of the history books for blown leads. 

[fifteenth]

Halleluka!   Adding Kevin Durants high % inside and midrange scoring is what put GSW over the top of dominance

Kawhi's inside and outside game, including post put the Raptors

Luka is our KD, LeBron, Kawhi, not KP.

[Dahlsim]

So yes, I'm saying there is a relationship here between blowing big leads fast and lacking inside scoring offense.

The Mavs offense produces a lot of shots close to the basket. I don't think they lack inside scoring.

Well clearly the blown leads and the streaks of low efficiency shooting from their stars indicate that something is less than perfect don't you agree?   Do you the team as perfect?      Kenny Smith said it this way, "well they are 20-10 but its not like they are 24-5 or something". 

I think Dallas has a shot at winning it all, even as soon as this season!  That's why I'm so interested in what can be improved.   

I think the suggesting is simply that's its going great, but it can go better and they are a few warning signs to watch like big leads evaporating very, very quickly, which they saw again just last night against the Spurs. 
In 1/2 court sets, when the defense has managed to slow down their roll, press them or zone them up, wall them off etc. then its you'd like see your big scorers shooting closer to 50% from the field type attempts and maybe getting more free throws to close out runs.

[fifteenth]

The following argument does not work for me:

Team A added a top 2 player in the world to a cast that already included a top 3 player in the world and 2 other all stars, and it worked, therefore we should post up.

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Well clearly the blown leads and the streaks of low efficiency shooting from their stars indicate that something is less than perfect don't you agree? 

I never said things are perfect. They're far from perfect. The team needs to grow, and handling end game pressure is one of their growth edges.

[ClutchDirk]

https://media.giphy.com/media/13t8Rnx2I5aM7e/giphy.gif

[Dahlsim]

The following argument does not work for me:

Team A added a top 2 player in the world to a cast that already included a top 3 player in the world and 2 other all stars, and it worked, therefore we should post up.

---

Well clearly the blown leads and the streaks of low efficiency shooting from their stars indicate that something is less than perfect don't you agree? 

I never said things are perfect. They're far from perfect. The team needs to grow, and handling end game pressure is one of their growth edges.

To be clear, I've got some agreement and disagreement with both sides of what was said.  More in agreement with Coach C. than against but as Kenny said early on and I mentioned the 2 sides were talking around each other in some senses. 

If you keep saying strictly 'Post up' then you miss what Kenny was saying about balancing the ratio better of Inside/Outside shot attempts from KP.   Post up is just ONE type of inside shot attempt. 

I like that KP and Luka both have such a green light for 3 point attempts so I don't really agree with Barkley entirely there.  For that matter I think Embiid who Chuck mentions should keep working on 3's in his mix of plays and he's maybe the best post player in the NBA today.  

It's not only 'Post up' which I think Carlisle mainly addressed but it's about finding the optimal mix of inside and outside shot attempts from a 7'3" star player.

[fifteenth]

I like the idea of optimizing KP's inside and outside abilities. But I don't think that's what the TNT guys were saying. And I don't think that optimization is what the Mavs end game struggles have been about.

[donzingis38]

Both sides aren't wrong. I think they all make good points.

TNT guys are basically just saying that KP needs to realize that he's 7'3 and shoot over smaller guys, the same way smaller players use their speed to beat taller guys. That's not asking him to be like a Dirk or a Shaq, that's just asking him to use his height to his advantage.

As for RC, I love the fact that he keeps growing as a coach and keeps adapting to the new NBA. And that's really good for Dallas. We won't be stuck with an old school mentality minded coach. I think he's accepted KP for what he is. He won't be that dominating big man in the NBA so he has to use him differently. You can't just force someone to post up if that's not his game.

As for KP, I know we all want to see him become that elite player now but we've got to be patient. I think everyone should give him a one year pass. I also think it's good that he's not peaking yet and there's still room to improve. I think his midrange jumper will be a lot better next season. If he becomes a solid midrange shooter and get a true starter next season, the team will be ready to contend.

[burekemde]

This is a non-sense discussion by the TNT crew. Of course they are correct Shaq and Barkley, if we were discussing a player that can and knows how to post up as well as shoot from outside. In case the post up game is better, of course one should focus more on that. In that case RC would design the offense accordingly.

But no, here we are discussing KP. He has no post up game. Carlise did use him posting up, every single game at least once and sometimes several or many times. He just cant do it! What Shaq/Barkley say is a "high percentage shot" is absolutely not true. Its a high percentage shot for Shaq/Barkley/Duncan. Its a low percentage shot for KP. Just because you are tall, it doesnt mean you can post up. We have seen KP against small guys and KP is the one that gets pushe away from the post and this is a low percentage shot.

You have to utilize the best of KP's game and that absolutely his 3 point shot and space the floor. Rick Carlise wins this discussion by far.

However there are other elements that are high percentage that Luka/KP are starting to implement. KP being on the weak side outside the ark on Lukas drives and Luka throwing it up for KP cutting to the basket for dunks. Also once KP is getting better at screens watch out for this dimension as well.

[Dahlsim]

I like the idea of optimizing KP's inside and outside abilities. But I don't think that's what the TNT guys were saying. And I don't think that optimization is what the Mavs end game struggles have been about.

You're making me think you never actually clicked on video link and listened to the comments 15th.  I actually linked to the point in the video where the conversation is relevant right away. In the first few minutes Kenny says "7 and 3 Ernie, 7 and 3".   That's exactly what he's talking about. 

https://youtu.be/L1UzpWZgu_Q?t=815 

As for the end game struggles, that's about a number of things.  Yes they need to settle down and not panic and continue to execute but they also need to know what exactly they should execute when they have big leads and are closing out games.

Good defense yes but optimized offense will absolutely help close a game too because in that scenario the other team needs stops more than you do.

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This is a non-sense discussion by the TNT crew. Of course they are correct Shaq and Barkley, if we were discussing a player that can and knows how to post up as well as shoot from outside. In case the post up game is better, of course one should focus more on that. In that case RC would design the offense accordingly.

But no, here we are discussing KP. He has no post up game. Carlise did use him posting up, every single game at least once and sometimes several or many times. He just cant do it! What Shaq/Barkley say is a "high percentage shot" is absolutely not true. Its a high percentage shot for Shaq/Barkley/Duncan. Its a low percentage shot for KP. Just because you are tall, it doesnt mean you can post up. We have seen KP against small guys and KP is the one that gets pushe away from the post and this is a low percentage shot.

You have to utilize the best of KP's game and that absolutely his 3 point shot and space the floor. Rick Carlise wins this discussion by far.

However there are other elements that are high percentage that Luka/KP are starting to implement. KP being on the weak side outside the ark on Lukas drives and Luka throwing it up for KP cutting to the basket for dunks. Also once KP is getting better at screens watch out for this dimension as well.

Which is why I point to what Kenny emphasizes, shots closer to rim and the ratio of those to the 3 point shots.  
It doesn't have to be strictly a 'Post up'.  Also a shot that begins in the post doesn't necessarily mean it needs to end the way Shaq or Barkley would end it.  KP can't do that.  

Kareem had the best shot in history, that started many times in the post but didn't end anything like Shaq or Barkley.  Dirk ended many Post ups as a One-Legged-Fadeaway. 
Duncan, ended with a face up bankshot sometimes, Wilt with a finger roll (they were not allowed to run people over back then they way they could with Shaq and guys like Giannis can do now).  

KP should be able to develop a consistent ender.  He doesn't have one now. 

Post is really just another way to get the ball inside as a starting position. 
If you have a open lane to roll in off PnR and dunk or take a lob or rim run I'll take any of those over a post position any time, but you won't get that consistently against good defense.  

The point is how to get the 7'3" skilled guy in for more close range shots to take advantage of his skills.

[luka_skywalker_77]

I think there is an issue here, mentioned by several posters when referring to post ups. KD and Dirk are good examples of this. Most of their post ups are further from the basket than traditional post ups. It's far more effective there for these guys because it gives them multiple options, while spacing the floor. Plus, they were excellent at it and we've seen the mavs employ this with KP from time to time. 

Even then, i wouldn't call it a post up--it's simply an isolation in a location that gives the offense flexibility. In KD's post ups, he can swing through shoot, drive, cross up dive, shoot over or fade etc--he has a complete array at his disposal because of it. So where he get's it after fighting for position or by dribbling into it, it's a good play depending on the situation--and that's far from a traditional post up.

As far as KP is concerned, he doesn't have a consistent post/mid post game that makes sense for dallas right now, so there's no point. It usually ends in a forced shot or a turnover.

[burekemde]

The point is how to get the 7'3" skilled guy in for more close range shots to take advantage of his skills.

There is not much point in this, as it's been tried quiet a lot and it did not work, so we have the result already, he is simply not skilled in this sense. It's been either a turnover, stripped ball, bullied away from basket, or a missed shot almost always. In every game it's been the most frustrating thing watching KP posting up, no matter in what style he proceeed after posting up as you mention he tried all the possible moves maybe besides the sky hook, it's ended up pretty bad most of the time. It's not a skill he has in his game.

Whether that will be developed or not, we don't know, it's purely hypothetical. That however would take quiet a while to develop. That does not seem to be injury related at all, he seems fully fit. He simply just does not have the skill of posting up, it's as simple as that, no matter how he uses it in which style or distance to the basket, he is ineffective. I find it interesting they discuss a skill a player does not possess. It would be like discussing JJB's rim protection.

I do find the thought interesting of KP developing a post up game. This would indeed be amazing. But i don't see any indications that this is realistic this season given how terrible he has performed in those situations. Maybe in the next seasons, with a lot of work.

He does have a potential for a different inside game. From pick and roll, alley oops, etc. I agree that getting him the ball in other ways than posting up, close to the basket, this should be tried. But given that he doesnt have a post up game, this is very difficult and since he is doing well from the 3 point land, I fully agree with Carlise that he should be used there, and dont fix what is not broken.

The offense could use another big that actually possess a post up game to complement KP.

[StepBackJay]

I don't agree with conflating post-ups with blowing big leads. We have a thread on how the Mavs blew those leads and there are many other more compelling reasons than KP posting up for a low percentage shot as the solution. We should also remember our best player who is a top 5 player now was out during those games.

Back to the topic at hand the math is easy. You shoot 3/10 from 3 you get 9 points on pretty mediocre shooting. To beat that from 2 you have to shoot 5/10. Is KP going to shoot 50% off of post ups? I don't have the numbers right now in front of me but his percentage has been pathetic. Not to mention the spacing and movement isn't as good in an iso situation on the block. There's a reason why the Rox and Mavs and other teams are all in on 3 point shooting. You shoot okay and you still come out ahead. You shoot well and you can run the other team out of the building.

As far as late game situations go the Mavs have all kinds of execution problems aside from what offense they run. Mavs have committed bad turnovers for one late in games. As far as bail out plays we really just need Luka with the ball. That's your bail out. Whatever he does is going to lead to good things which is why the Mavs are winning a lot of games. I don't care if we shoot 3s even when we are milking a lead. A good shot is a good shot. If Mavs are getting open looks then take 3s all day long no matter what the score is.

As far as KP bail outs go I think long term him at the 3 point line with a live dribble is pretty good. He fumbles the ball too much but that will improve. He needs to pass out more when the defense collapses. I think he has tried to plow through 3 defenders too many times and ends up losing the ball. In the future you have KP or Luka with space at the 3 point line. Each have different skills but the formula is similar. Shoot if the defender doesn't come out. Pump fake and drive if it's there. Pass to a shooter if the defense collapses. This is better than a turnaround fade away 2. Not saying he can't do a couple post ups just to mix it up and to basically appease his appetite. If he gets really good at it maybe do a couple more. The fact is Rick knows how to maximize offensive efficiency and that means KP plays more like a wing on the perimeter.

[burekemde]

I want to add that there seems to exist a wrong view on KP and his skillset. Many define him as a "skilled player." I see him as extremely raw basketball player that is very tall and very athletic and that can shoot well when open. In that sense i do not see him being skilled. In my world skilled means attributes other than physical/atheltic. As he is so raw, he does not shoot well when challanged/guarded, if he is disturbed in any sense, his shoting is dramatically worse, no matter the distance. I havent watche Knicks when he played so i dont know if it was also the case before. Maybe he lost this part of the game and it will return with time, I really hope this.

He is extremely athletic for his size. In fact unique in this sense as you dont find as athletic tall player that also can shoot. He plays fantastic defense, he alters so many shots, easy shots that end up in empty posessions for the opponents, and that has transformed this defense. Last season so many drives ended up in easy baskets as we did not protect the rim well. This season, teams cant score in the paint on these very same plays, they are forced to make outside shots. Also he is showing to be a teamplayer and integrating and adapting his skills for the best of the team, which is great.

[dirkfansince1998]

KP has a

He simply just does not have the skill of posting up

That´s actually not true. In 2018 he ranked among the best post players which still is not saying that the shot is efficient. It just isn´t efficient offense even for the best of them. Based on the numbers the only bigman that should post up as much as possible is Embiid. And maybe Jokic because playmaking bigs like him obviously create open looks for teammates with post ups.
For comparisation:

2018 KP: 0.96 PPP
2020 KP: 0.59 PPP

2018 Embiid: 0.97PPP
2020 Embiid: 1.15 PPP

2018 AD 0.97 PPP
2020 AD 0.99 PPP

2018 Jokic: 0.93 PPP
2020 Jokic: 0.92 PPP

2018 Towns: 1.02 PPP
2020 Towns: 0.93 PPP

For comparisation:

Luka in the pick and roll 1.10 PPP
Luka iso 1.03 PPP

fun note:

Luka post up 1.33 PPP (RC mentioned him in the interview. Really low volume and only against smaller guards but maybe more post ups for Luka are an option)

[ItsGoTime]

I'm reading a lot of those defending RC as if the other side is saying that RC should scrap what he's doing and go with a more post up play style for KP. I don't believe anyone has said that. Even the TnT crew said, when KP has a smaller guy (6 footer was constantly said) on him to post him up, not in every play. 

They're basically saying exploit the defense when they switch on KP. I think everyone would want the team to exploit the weaknesses of the defense, wherever those weaknesses are. That's exactly how playoff basketball is played too. Exploit the oppositions weaknesses until they adjust then find the new weakness.

There is not much point in this, as it's been tried quiet a lot and it did not work, so we have the result already, he is simply not skilled in this sense. It's been either a turnover, stripped ball, bullied away from basket, or a missed shot almost always. In every game it's been the most frustrating thing watching KP posting up, no matter in what style he proceeed after posting up as you mention he tried all the possible moves maybe besides the sky hook, it's ended up pretty bad most of the time. It's not a skill he has in his game.

I have seen the same frustrating things as you have, however, he was doing it decently well in NY as the stats bare out. He was doing that as a 20-22 yo, so it was still a development in progress. He also has gotten off some really good shots/really open looks from posting up this year. They just aren't going in right now. That brings me to my next point:

That does not seem to be injury related at all, he seems fully fit.

While he is in the best shape of his life, he's still getting his basketball legs under him (that explanation is starting to fade, I will admit). He got into work out shape after 2 years then started playing high end basketball. Sure he developed some muscle and flexibility, but you never use the exact same muscles in any other exercise as when you play the actual sport. 

On top of that, he's got some mental struggles it seems. That is what I feel the biggest hang up is for him right now. He's getting open looks with most of his post up plays lately (a lot less fumbling the ball, which is a muscle coordination thing), they're just not going in. As he has said, it'll come. I myself can't wait for that moment. I had hoped the stretch sans Luka was going to have him put it all together, I guess we need to wait a bit longer.

[burekemde]

KP has a

He simply just does not have the skill of posting up

That´s actually not true. In 2018 he ranked among the best post players which still is not saying that the shot is efficient.

I havent watched him as a Knick, so I cant tell. All I know in 2019 he for sure does not have that skill, its proven through 30 games. Also, be careful with that stat, it also depens on the volume and circumstance.